Major flooding in Austin from Hermine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2010

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Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:

"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."

As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.

Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.

Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.

Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.

Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.

Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.


Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.

Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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2131. angiest
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, it does.


Maybe 1 degree further north. Appears somewhat slower forward speed too.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
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Quoting DDR:
Pottery what is that green thing over your head?lol


mold :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, it does.


I don't believe that is the updated track. The next position on that track is 8:00 am tomorrow morning, which would not be 12 hours from 11. The track has yet to be updated.
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Quoting RufusBaker:
WELL.........


It's pretty interesting to look at the the Avatars from #2055 and #2056 next to each other.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


In all seriousness, I think that's possible as well. Not to hype or anything, but all of our major hurricanes have threatened the mid-Atlantic and New England this year. Sooner or later, whether this year or not, their luck will run out.


I wasn't actually hyping... its seems all the ducks are in a row to steer things that way.
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Does anyone have a projected path or model runs on ex hermine? I'm curious if it will hit the northeast.
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Quoting angiest:


Looks further north.


Yeah, it does.
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Quoting pottery:

1.25" so far.
Coming down in freakin' bucketloads right now.
No wind.
Pressure 1011.
Thanks. Just curious because that whole area looks like nothing but moisture.
Quoting capesanblas:



Thanks for the warning, I'll get the dog out now for a pee - just to be safe.


On a more serious note - did not Gilbert come from that area?
Kman said earlier that this is where
Gilbert formed.
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2121. DDR
Pottery what is that green thing over your head?lol
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I have a bad feeling that its NYC's year


In all seriousness, I think that's possible as well. Not to hype or anything, but all of our major hurricanes have threatened the mid-Atlantic and New England this year. Sooner or later, whether this year or not, their luck will run out.
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2119. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


BEWARE THE EYES OF WHATEVER YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT!!!!!

Fish-eyes. We are talking about fish-eyes....
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The ACF still hasn't deactivated Gaston; read into that what you will. As of just now, however, Igor's ACE (0.4425) is already higher than Gaston's (0.3675).
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Nothing's going to hit Florida this year, remember?


I have a bad feeling that its NYC's year
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2114. angiest
Quoting KoritheMan:
Igor still at 40 kt/1005 mb as of 11:00 PM. Still awaiting the discussion and track.


Looks further north.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2113. xcool
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Nothing's going to hit Florida this year, remember?
awwww man!!!!!!!!
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2109. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Want me to post more pics for you Pottery... remember what happened last time?

YEAH!!!
but leave out the eyes!
heheheh
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...IGOR CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 24.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Igor still at 40 kt/1005 mb as of 11:00 PM. Still awaiting the discussion and track.
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Hmm what is that sneaky little thing around Cancun... looks sort of roundish and heading into BOC.

According to the models.. Gaston & Igor will be Cat 4's around the same time... when was the last time we had that?



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting RufusBaker:
WILL 92 GO TO FL??


Nothing's going to hit Florida this year, remember?
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2102. MZT
Quoting dan77539:
I've been worried for a week about ex-Gaston ultimately boiling up in the ultra-hot waters of the NW Caribbean. Is it really dead?


Gaston is dead but he could have stirred up enough lingering vorticity in a calm area to stir up trouble. That's what happened with 92L, followed by 93L, which became Alex.
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Quoting angiest:


To be fair to Pakistan, how do you respond adequately to a portion of you country separated from the "main" part by another country with whom you are in a perpetual state of near war?


Dont know
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2100. ackee
Quoting scott39:
And alot closer to land for faster strike!
agree will be watching this closely plus not moveing lot time to get its act togother
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Quoting Jeff9641:


A low is developing as we speak just ese of Barbados. This one will be a doozy for many. Igor appears to be no threat to the US but this system near Barbados will mean business.



Thanks for the warning, I'll get the dog out now for a pee - just to be safe.


On a more serious note - did not Gilbert come from that area?
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2098. EricSFL


Igor and company.
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2096. xcool
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Quoting pottery:

1.25" so far.
Coming down in freakin' bucketloads right now.
No wind.
Pressure 1011.


Want me to post more pics for you Pottery... remember what happened last time?
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Quoting blsealevel:


Link

Check out the link a ton of info and a good learning tool.


Thanks for the link -- I'm a lurker and this will answer many of my questions.
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WILL 92 GO TO FL??
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2091. pottery
Quoting pottery:

1.25" so far.
Coming down in freakin' bucketloads right now.
No wind.
Pressure 1011.

CORRECTION

Pressure at Trinidad--
1013 or 29.92 steady./
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
And alot closer to land for faster strike!
Yes,and that to.
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I've been worried for a week about ex-Gaston ultimately boiling up in the ultra-hot waters of the NW Caribbean. Is it really dead?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2087. MZT
Right after Earl landed in Canada we had a spate of "dudcasters" on here. This season is a dud, stick a fork in it, etc.

If 92L develops into the J-storm, I think we're doing fine as a busy season. I remember Jeanne was a last-week-of-Sept landfall in FLA. 2004 was no slouch! We're just spoiled.
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Quoting pottery:

1.25" so far.
Coming down in freakin' bucketloads right now.
No wind.
Pressure 1011.
Thanks. Just curious because that whole area looks like nothing but moisture.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2082. pottery
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good night Pottery. What is the weather like there tonight ?

1.25" so far.
Coming down in freakin' bucketloads right now.
No wind.
Pressure 1011.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.