Major flooding in Austin from Hermine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2010

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Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:

"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."

As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.

Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.

Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.

Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.

Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.

Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.


Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.

Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1181. will40
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Good question. I guess we'll have to set up visitation rights. I'm just not ready to give up full custody as yet. :)


ah ha yes we will just keep sending them back and forth :-)
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Quoting mrpuertorico:


Link
thanks
nos va a partir por el mismo medio!!!!!! lol
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1179. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ukmet.html

Now that I look at it, the GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC keep it over the Windwards for a couple of days before making any type of movement. The CMC definitely takes it on the most interesting track. Takes it basically due north from it's position currently, and then makes a turn towards the west once it is over the SW Atlantic. Here it is at 144 hours just north of Hispaniola moving towards the WNW.



thanks!
that's interesting
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
ok time to sing the doom song before i leave the office...Doom doom doom doom do do doom doom doom ...doom
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Quoting will40:


um i wonder who is gonna need what be have been using lol?


Lol. Good question. I guess we'll have to set up visitation rights. I'm just not ready to give up full custody as yet. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
ex-ex-gaston could redevelop when it reaches near 75W maybe it has a lot of thing goig for it except lad mass of Hispaniola but the after lt leaves that then it is cleared to take off
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Quoting Caribbeanislands101:

i see it, can you send me that link?


Link
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1172. Grothar
Quoting angiest:


There's a sale at Penneys!


And Leon is getting fatter
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Sharp recurving turn? That is what I see, but I cannot tell if that is the most recent GFS run

Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Storm you were right! The GFS has taken that sharp turn out at 50...imagine that.
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1170. BDADUDE
Is the concensus that Igor will go out to sea and not affect any land areas?
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Quoting Tazmanian:


round 1


90L bust


91L bust


92L bust

93L be comes Alex

94L bust

95L bust

96L be come TD 2

97L be comes BONNIE

98L bust

99L bust


round 2



90L bust

91L be comes .COLIN

92L bust

93L bust

94L be comes TD 5

95L be comes Danielle

96L be comes Earl

97L be comes FIONA

98L be comes Gaston

99L bust


round 3


90L be comes hermine

91L be comes IGOR




round 3 is off too a good start lol
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I have not experienced a Hurricane yet and I use to think along those lines....... Then I talked to a bunch of people who went through IVAN. Years later you can still hear the terror in their voices describing what happened.
That tends to happen quite alot here when you speak to people who went through the "K" storm...I personally will not stay for another unless it is a very low end storm. Got my attention for sure!!
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1166. leo305
oh nevermind.. I guess 99L is the swirl west of igor..
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1165. Vero1
Quoting StormW:


That would be the Atlantic Tripole.


And you were speaking "Globally"?
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Quoting mrpuertorico:
AS THE SMALL LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF IGOR MOVES WESTWARD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH ALLOWS IGOR TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR EVEN NORTHWEST BRIEFLY. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS...
WHICH SHOULD TURN IGOR WESTWARD AGAIN. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS AND THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT STILL LIES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.


you guys seem to be missing out on that last part just wanted to point that out

i see it, can you send me that link?
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Quoting JLPR2:


got a link?
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ukmet.html

Now that I look at it, the GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC keep it over the Windwards for a couple of days before making any type of movement. The CMC definitely takes it on the most interesting track. Takes it basically due north from it's position currently, and then makes a turn towards the west once it is over the SW Atlantic. Here it is at 144 hours just north of Hispaniola moving towards the WNW.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting MississippiWx:


That's not great news...LOL. If we ever get the MJO back over our basin completely, it might not end to well during the last half of the season. The MJO has surprisingly been stubborn to return to our basin.
And let's keep it that way
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1161. kwgirl
Quoting DestinJeff:


We are all doom.
I keep thinking that this is the wrong usage. Shouldn't it be doomed? As in going to our doom.
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Wow....I totally missed 99L...lol
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Quoting WeatherMSK:
Who was 99L?


round 1


90L bust


91L bust


92L bust

93L be comes Alex

94L bust

95L bust

96L be come TD 2

97L be comes BONNIE

98L bust

99L bust


round 2



90L bust

91L be comes .COLIN

92L bust

93L bust

94L be comes TD 5

95L be comes Danielle

96L be comes Earl

97L be comes FIONA

98L be comes Gaston

99L bust


round 3


90L be comes hermine

91L be comes IGOR
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Who was 99L then? I recall Gaston being 98L
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Who was 99L then? I recall Gaston being 98L
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Quoting txag91met:
Next system to watch will be in the Caribbean. Igor won't make to Florida, not with this pattern that is shaping up. If the ridge holds like the Euro suggests the next system will end up in Mexico or Brownsville.
Really? You do know what your saying right? If the ridge does hold then all the more reason Igor will go east coast....
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99L did not develop
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AS THE SMALL LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF IGOR MOVES WESTWARD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH ALLOWS IGOR TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR EVEN NORTHWEST BRIEFLY. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS...
WHICH SHOULD TURN IGOR WESTWARD AGAIN. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS AND THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT STILL LIES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.


you guys seem to be missing out on that last part just wanted to point that out
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Quoting BLee2333:
Well, I sure hope this turns out to be an extraordinary year.

I'm sorry to let you all know, I will miss next season due to a tour of duty in Afghanistan...

Be back in time for Atlantic Season 2012.


Be safe, and thank you!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


We are all doom.



How long have y'all practiced that?? LMAO!!
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1148. leo305
Quoting WeatherMSK:
Who was 99L?


hermine
90L is a weak surface low currently to the west of igor
91L was igor
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1147. angiest
Quoting MississippiWx:


Tri-pole trying to make a comeback?


Can someone put the North Atlantic back on its meds!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting NavarreMark:


It made an impression.


I heard that Dennis the next year was no walk in the park for Santa Rosa County either.
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1145. will40
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


UGH! That doesn't sound good.


um i wonder who is gonna need what be have been using lol?
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A few of the storms and seasons from 1851-1970 are some of the most fascinating to look at.

Makes you wonder what their *real* totals were when you include the Nanas, Jerrys and Gastons into their lower totals.

Add 2 to 4 storms (depending on the season and era) - perhaps anywhere from 2-1-0 to 4-2-1 - and the totals look much more like what is experienced today.
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Who was 99L?
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Next system to watch will be in the Caribbean. Igor won't make to Florida, not with this pattern that is shaping up. If the ridge holds like the Euro suggests the next system will end up in Mexico or Brownsville.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:

is it just me or is it very appropriate to say Igor is creeping westward? lol

That's hysterical for NHC Discussions.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The UKMET shows something similar. Keeps it very near the Windwards almost the entire run. I don't know about any of the other models.


NOGAPS shows the same thing...That's 3 models showing something very similar with that area. The EURO is pretty progressive with it and has it moving over the Yucatan in about 6 days.
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1138. angiest
Quoting angiest:


I does seem a little more northward in the near-term.


Yes it is somewhat further north for awhile but eventually meets up with the previous forecast (an insignificant difference as you get past 3 days).
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1136. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The UKMET shows something similar. Keeps it very near the Windwards almost the entire run. I don't know about any of the other models.


got a link?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
1134. Vero1
StormW ~~ is this what is meant by "Tri-Pole"

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Hey guys was Hermine 99L and Igor 90L?
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Quoting StormW:


Yes.


That's not great news...LOL. If we ever get the MJO back over our basin completely, it might not end to well during the last half of the season. The MJO has surprisingly been stubborn to return to our basin.
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And:



(You'll notice that it was not The Great Shower Curtain Hurricane of 1926 which holds the title)

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.