Major flooding in Austin from Hermine
Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:
"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."
As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.
Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.
Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.
Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.
Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.
Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.
Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I'm talking about the comments we saw during Earl. "NHC is off track, cone needs to move left, OOooo did you see that wobble the past 30 mins" stuff
Yeah, saw that area just near Barbados. That is where Gilbert came from.
and Charley
Well, in Earl's case, for the first 4 or so days it was justified as the forecast track did wind up moving west quite a bit.
Exactly. I think the disturbance in the Southern Windward Islands will be the one to develop, not the remnants of ex-Gaston. It is slowly getting its act together down in that region right now. I definitely expect to see a designated invest assigned to this area very shortly.
Link
Nice Job! Thanks
That was a nice thing to do. :) Good to hear that. If I think too hard about that time (after Rita) I sometimes get overwhelmed by memories of the vultures and conmen/women. And that's just not fair to the people who went way out of their way to be kind to me and mine. Thanks for the reminder. :) As far as roofs go, just looking out my backdoor they are still either new or blue. Just can't be sure from which storm anymore. Lol.
Totally agree. There are way to many things in life to worry about than a remote possibility that an "almost dead" storm my come to life.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL STORM MERANTI (T1010)
9:00 AM JST September 9 2010
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
at 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Meranti (1000 hPa) located at 21.1N 119.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 7 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 24.2N 118.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 29.0N 119.3E - Tropical Depression
And more coming.... didn't Pottery ask for it?
I arrived on Grand Cayman about 4 months after Ivan and they were still repairing a roof(on a church?) at the main port where the cruise ship stopped. Heard some interesting stories from the dive company we went with.
(2008 Storm Damage is Estimated[dubious – discuss] in USD)
Billions Name Year
$81.2 Hurricane Katrina[1] 2005
$40.7 Hurricane Andrew[2] 1992
$37.6 Hurricane Ike[3][4] 2008
$29.1 Hurricane Wilma[5][6][7][8] 2005
$18.6 Hurricane Charley[9][10] 2004
$18.1 Hurricane Ivan[11][12] 2004
$15.23 Hurricane Agnes[13] 1972
$14.1 Hurricane Hugo[14][15] 1989
$10.5 Hurricane Rita[16] 2005
$10.4 Hurricane Frances[12][14][17] 2004
$10.2 Hurricane Gilbert[18] 1988
$9.35 Hurricane Betsy[14][19] 1965
$8.5 Hurricane Gustav[20] 2008
$8.2 Hurricane Mitch[21][22][23][24][25] 1998
$8.0 Hurricane Jeanne[12][14][26][27] 2004
$7.97 Hurricane Camille[14] 1969
$7.92 Hurricane Georges[27][28][29] 1998
$6.5 Hurricane Frederic[14] 1979
$6.39 Tropical Storm Allison[30][31][32] 2001
Costliest Cuban hurricanes
Cost refers to total estimated property damage.
Rank Hurricane Season Damages 2010 USD
1 Ike 2008 $7.3 billion $7.38 billion [33]
2 Michelle 2001 $2.2 billion $2.7 billion [29]
3 Gustav 2008 $2.1 billion $2.12 billion [33]
4 Dennis 2005 $1.5 billion $1.67 billion [34]
5 Ivan 2004 $1.2 billion $1.38 billion [10]
[edit] Listed by cost (United States only)
See also: Template:Costliest US Atlanti
needs maintaince,but still good
Link
Hi,I noticed the winds have had the cloud moving from the west to east (generally) all day....
3/4" so far here, but I guess 3" around St. Aug? Santa Cruz was bad...
204hrs (Long-Range)
Click for larger image:
I don't think I've seen any radar online for the Dominican Republic. There's kind of a "radar hole" between Cuba and Puerto Rico.
Ah yes,we were dying for a drop of rain a few months ago.'Mud' has been the word of the day several months straight.
That happen through 300 miles waiting the recurve, I wonder why?
That reflection on this map near the FL Straits probably is our developing system currently in the Southern Windward Islands.
I believe so...
CMC Ensemble loop
I know what you mean. I have new shingles from Rita, Ike and Gustav. I have four shingles left to use, so any storms now must be only four shingle storms.
Before the great Galveston Hurricane hit Galveston in September 1900, it was the second largest port in the Gulf next to New Orleans and at the time was considered much more important than places like Houston and Dallas. When the city was destroyed by the hurricane, it never recovered its former prominence.
I'm from Trinidad,West indies
...Yeah, or like foolishly trying to tell yourself that if you pretend it doesn't exist, it really doesn't exist. ;-)
I deny all this.
heh!!
Greetings Orc.
Well it rained here today and just now ,i've got 1.25 inches for today so far,3 inches yesterday .Dry in St augustine today,minor floods in Maracas/Santa cruz.
Dominican Republic radar
Found it at this site that I just recently found. From Czech republic of all places. :)
Y'all are quick on the draw around here. Seriously I did try to search for that before... tougher find than Cuba or PR
LOL, same Wikipedia article:
Name Year Cost at the time
(in billion USD) Inflation adjusted cost Cost adjusted for wealth normalization
Great Miami Hurricane 1926 0.1 2.58 157.0
Galveston Hurricane 1900 0.02 0.52 99.4
Hurricane Katrina[1] 2005 81.0 81.0 81.0
Galveston Hurricane 1915 0.05 0.92 68.0
Hurricane Andrew[2] 1992 26.5 44.9 55.8
New England Hurricane 1938 0.31 6.2 39.2
Pinar del Río Hurricane 1944 0.1 5.5 38.7
Okeechobee Hurricane 1928 0.1 1.4 33.6
Hurricane Donna 1960 0.9 3.1 26.8
Hurricane Camille 1969 1.42 9.1 21.2
Hurricane Wilma 2005 20.6 20.6 20.6
Hurricane Betsy 1965 1.42 11.1 17.9
Hurricane Diane 1955 0.83 7.2 17.2
Hurricane Agnes 1972 2.1 11.6 17.2
Hurricane Hazel 1954 0.38 3.0 16.5
Hurricane Charley 2004 15.0 15.0 16.3
Hurricane Carol 1954 0.46 3.95 16.1
Hurricane Ivan 2004 14.2 14.2 15.5
Hurricane Hugo 1989 7.0 12.6 15.3
South Florida Hurricane 1949 0.05 2.7 14.7
Hurricane Carla 1961 0.33 2.5 14.2
Fort Lauderdale Hurricane 1947 0.11 0.9 13.7
Great Atlantic Hurricane 1944 0.1 5.4 13.2
Florida Keys Hurricane 1919 0.02 0.2 13.2
Southeast Florida Hurricane 1945 0.05 0.6 12.3
Hurricane Frederic 1979 2.3 6.5 10.3
Hurricane Rita 2005 10.0 9.4 10.0
Hurricane Frances 2004 8.9 8.9 9.7
Chesapeake Potomac Hurricane 1933 0.03 0.4 8.2
Hurricane Dora 1964 0.28 1.9 7.7
Hurricane Jeanne 2004 6.9 6.9 7.5
Hurricane Alicia 1983 2.0 4.38 7.5
Hurricane Floyd 1999 4.5 5.76 6.7
Tropical Storm Allison 2001 5.0 6.0 6.6
Vagabond Hurricane 1903 0.008 0.18 6.5
Yankee Hurricane 1935 0.005 0.08 6.4
Hurricane Opal 1995 3.0 4.32 6.1
Galveston Hurricane 1932 0.007 0.1 5.9
Mobile Hurricane 1916 0.0015 0.05 5.8
Hurricane Fran 1996 3.2 4.53 5.8
Hurricane Celia 1970 0.45 2.76 5.6
Hurricane Cleo 1964 0.2 1.4 5.2
Hurricane King 1950 0.03 0.26 4.4
Hurricane Beulah 1967 0.15 1.1 4.0
Hurricane Isabel 2003 3.37 3.64 4.0
Hurricane Juan 1985 1.5 3.1 3.9
Hurricane Audrey 1957 0.147 1.0 3.8
Hurricane Ione 1955 0.088 0.7 3.7
Nassau Hurricane 1926 0.008 0.09 3.7
Article
Lol. IF we have to have one I hope it's only a four shingle storm too. :) Lol. We've now got a new classification system. :)
Possible 92L
Thats not the only reason. After 1900 oil was found in Beaumont and the oil rush was on. Galveston was in the middle of dredging the gulf for sand to raise the entire island and building the famous Red Granite Seawall. Galveston Island turned from the prominent shipping port to the backyard for Oil tycoons and wealthy ;ease owners. The rest is history.
Dumb luck. Ran across a site earlier that I'm looking through as we speak. :)
Link
This area could be another Marilyn (1995).
Did DestinJeff get his ADA meds this afternoon or did Doom reach his doorstep?
Will the KanKunKid ever run for President, or at least buy the blog a round?
Has everyone read over at Ocra's? - there is some seriously funny stuff posted over there, as well as some decent info.
Did Ike out predict StrowmW last year?
Why did so many suggest I put Jason on ignore.
Is K-man on top of the area off SA, - if not- someone warn him, a bad boy cane came from there once.
Will StormW say Goodnight tonight, or just drift off to sleep leaving the Blog wanting.
I have many more questions, butt,, right now I need to go for another beer and rest stop.
Evening blog mates, - looks like it's a busy night.
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