Major flooding in Austin from Hermine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:

"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."

As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.

Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.

Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.

Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.

Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.

Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.


Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.

Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 831 - 781

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62Blog Index

Quoting Tazmanian:



from 20% ch too a name storm today heh


NHC still has a yellow circle to the NE of Igor. Is that a separate area for potential development or did they just not take Igor's yellow circle off when they named him?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


Yeah. This time for rilz.

Hope not. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
May be earlier on a pay site i guess
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
828. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Tazmanian:




thats olny update evere 6hrs or so

What time is the next update?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bird72:

Igor esta en la misma posicion de San Felipe II 1928, categoria 5.
No habla espanol...but also in the same position as CODE RED model said major to be 92L.....category 0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Not sure where you're getting that from...00Z updates starting at about 1 am CDST....12Z updates starting at about 1 pm CDST.


Link
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm very impressed that we already have Igor considering that it only stood a 20% chance yesterday.



from 20% ch too a name storm today heh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RecordSeason:
Next several hours should be veeeeery interesting IMO.

We are possibly going to see some...erm...mischief...in the carribean and possibly the bahamas over the next few days.


But.. someone said this season was a bust! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Igor will make for a very long week.


yup, it'll seem longer than the 45 days we dealt with Gaston.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormGoddess:
Igor (Iggy) looks to be trying to take up a cyclonic shape already. :O


iggy wed


Iggy JSL Loop




thats olny update evere 6hrs or so
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
813. IKE
Quoting will40:
ECMWF Images (updates begin around 3:20pm for 12z, 3:20am for 0z)


Not sure where you're getting that from...00Z updates starting at about 1 am CDST....12Z updates starting at about 1 pm CDST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
812. xcool
'
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting DestinJeff:
Just did some analysis, and yes --

We are all doom.

Oh no, not again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ECMWF Images (updates begin around 3:20pm for 12z, 3:20am for 0z)
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
Quoting KanKunKid:


I was surprised Terry Kath wasn't mentioned. Jimi Hendrix said Terry was the best guitar player he ever heard. Of course, when you die, people forget you. He isn't even in the Rolling Stones top 20. (Terry Kath) Jimi is #1.


Quite a shame as Terry was an excellent player who left us way too early, and in such a stupid fashion. His death also ushered in the death of what was once a killer fusion band...although I am sure some would argue with that. :-D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Says 1200Z.

Here's the complete ECMWF...Link


yes was 3:20 this morning
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
I'm very impressed that we already have Igor considering that it only stood a 20% chance yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
803. xcool
will40 ? huh
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
802. IKE
Quoting will40:
edit its this mornings run


Says 1200Z.

Here's the complete ECMWF...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12Z starts in about 20 mins
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
Igor (Iggy) looks to be trying to take up a cyclonic shape already. :O


iggy wed


Iggy JSL Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Not happy to see two analog systems have passed over me :\

----------------
also everyone, keep me informed XD I'm on my crappy netbook at the library and I'm in break, excuse any orthography problems, this keyboard is too small T_T

Igor esta en la misma posicion de San Felipe II 1928, categoria 5.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
edit its this mornings run
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
796. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
795. xcool
IKE okay just check :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
793. IKE
Quoting xcool:
IKE i think old image from 00z


240 hour image is Saturday...10 days from now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
IKE i think old image from 00z


yea its yesterdays
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
791. xcool
IKE i think old image from 00z
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Putting the daily ECMWF forecasts on one map: Can see Igor and Julia. Igor coming perilously close to the region where landfall probabilities are more than a coin flip...

ECMWF forecasts Igor at 956 mb which is likely a major hurricane, about 100 knots...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
789. Vero1
Gaston making a come back??

MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GASTON COULD
REAPPEAR OVER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS
THE N CARIBBEAN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
788. IKE
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


Yeah IKE, that is a definte positive NAO signal on the 12z EURO.


What does positive imply on Cape Verde tracks?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kshipre1:
I thought if the ridge of high pressure builds eastward, that opens the door to a more northward turn and the further west the high builds in would force the storm westward towards the CONUS? is this correct?
NO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
785. IKE
BAMD 15.7N 32.7W 17.3N 37.9W 19.6N 42.4W 22.3N 46.0W....

Nearly moving NW on the end of the run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Updated blog shows my forecast track, and thoughts on Igor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Here's hour 216 on the ECMWF...



Yeah IKE, that is a definte positive NAO signal on the 12z EURO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 831 - 781

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
25 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron