Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Levi, that was a great video you put together today. I enjoyed watching it. Looks like we all have plenty of things to keep an eye on in the coming 2 weeks, especially along the Gulf coast. Thanks for putting that info together for us!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
A little harsh?

The truth is sometimes very harsh, some just can't handle the truth, they can dish out but can't take, enough said!
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
110% seconded. And a Happy Birthday to your husband as well.


thank you will let him know.
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618. ackee
92L should flair up back tonight if it does not become a TD by tonight or on sunday probaly wont until reach the westrn carribean or NW carrb
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Certainly hope no one's becoming impatient with 92L. This type of develop is expected, it is similar to the way.. as I'm sure you remember.. the way Alex developed back in June, monsoonal in nature. 92L was a disturbance in the ITCZ that popped out and started organizing, a good reason why the GFS isn't showing it, does very poorly with monsoonal development vs. Cape Verde development which since the upgrade it has received it has done surprising well. It wouldn't surprise me if 92L didn't develop until it reached the western Caribbean.

The Euro had a good handle on Alex, and has shown in previous runs a strong hurricane hitting the Yucatan with 92L. While this is unlikely, this could go down similar to that of Alex and Dolly did.

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Dr. Masters, congratulations to your birthday from Germany! I'll join the club 50+ end of the year. Great age group, as it seems in this blog.
I'm glad to have found your blog several years ago, though lurking and posting from time to time sometimes detains me from daily duties.
BTW: I followed your traces to Kefalonia/Greece last year nearly off season (end of October, beginning November) with very few tourists, if any at all. It has been great. The weather had been changing every day. Still a bit of summer, then lots of thunderstorms and very wild sea.
Sorry to use the main blog, but I'm not member in facebook. Barbara
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Quoting stormpetrol:

If you lived in Jamaica, The Cayman islands, or the Yucatan pen, and saw a potential threat like 92 L in your path you wouldn't be making such statements, my suggestion to you if you want to watch fish, go take a dive a pal!
A little harsh?
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Quoting help4u:
Nothing to watch unless you like watching fish in your fish tank.

If you lived in Jamaica, The Cayman islands, or the Yucatan pen, and saw a potential threat like 92 L in your path you wouldn't be making such statements, my suggestion to you if you want to watch fish, go take a dive a pal!
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Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





I have noticed the xtrap modle is doing better this season than some. Wonder if they updated it. ;P~
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Well looks like Igor is nothing to worry about.92L looks like trouble.93L will go out to sea just like the rest.The US hasn't had a real threat this season.I thought the experts said the U.S could see multiple hits from tropical cyclones.Well we're only human.it's understandable.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
92L following my predictions to the letter.. I actually suspected this would happen when it looked impressive this morning. I fully expect some sort of blowup tonight, and the process continues.


Look where all the Oranges are. Directly over me. :|
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Quoting btwntx08:

hurricane prediction center lmao it isnt hurricane oops




I know that its not hurricane oops, lol, I was just saying these storms tracks aren't just set in stone
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609. Bonz
1. Have you ever wished to experience a hurricane?
--When I first moved down here. My first was Andrew in 1992.

2. Did your opinion of hurricanes change after you experienced it?
--Not really, except that instead of leaving for a cat 4-5, I will leave for a cat 3 or above.

3. What changes did you make after the experience of the hurricane?
--nagged the husband to get more preps. We have a generator now and we got our shutters right before Jeanne and Frances in 2004.
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92L following my predictions to the letter.. I actually suspected this would happen when it looked impressive this morning. I fully expect some sort of blowup tonight, and the process continues.

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606. MZT
Before Hugo, the last major Carolinas hurricane that people referenced as a bad one, was Hazel (1954). There was a perception that hurricanes were generally a "Florida thing." I remember asking relatives to describe what they were like ... (mainly descriptions of sitting in the hall for hours waiting for them to end.)

I think Hugo, Fran, and Floyd have penetrated peoples psyche a bit - and the forecasters and newspapers pay closer attention to Atlantic storms than they did when I was a kid.
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Nothing to watch unless you like watching fish in your fish tank.
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Happy B'day Dr.M
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Quoting jacechase:



I heard them say that it could possibly follow a similar path as Earl, and affect Canada as well. I wouldn't totally count it out if I were you, these storms aren't predictable, and i also saw that the models are expecting a flatter trough so who knows. I would be careful with crazy comments like that.
the weather channel being the them
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Crazy comments are those who say it is going to hit US.When experts at nhc say no chance.
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Quoting beell:


1. Yes
2. Yes.
3. Pants

+1
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599. IKE
Day 7 from Hurricane Prediction Center(HPC), shows Igor threatening Bermuda and 92L heading for Mexico. Also shows another cold front heading to the lower SE USA....

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It's Jeff Master's Birthday? Congratulations!
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597. JLPR2
I see 92L was fooling us XD
And 93L is refiring after crossing to water.
Also Igor is looking better.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8530
Quoting help4u:
Igor is going out to sea.Have heard no one say it is threat to US.



I heard them say that it could possibly follow a similar path as Earl, and affect Canada as well. I wouldn't totally count it out if I were you, these storms aren't predictable, and i also saw that the models are expecting a flatter trough so who knows. I would be careful with crazy comments like that.
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wow a very busy two day coming

check the recon plan for 2mrrow
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Quoting RecordSeason:
579:

The NHC does post-season analysis anyway.

I'm sure if there was a TD or TS there at any given time, they'll mention it afterwards.

Yeah, they'll probably put a few post season storms.
92L(June)
95L(GOMEX,July)?
98L(BOC, July)
93L(CATL, August)?
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Quoting seflagamma:
Dr Master's BD is today? It is also my husband's birthday... Sept 11th.


so Happy Happy Birthday to you Dr Master's
and thank you for providing this community we all love so much!

110% seconded. And a Happy Birthday to your husband as well.
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Calm down ,Igor is not going to hit US.
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Quoting weathergeek5:
Storm or whoever:

Have a a few questions


1. Have you ever wished to experience a hurricane?

2. Did your opinion of hurricanes change after you experienced it?

3. What changes did you make after the experience of the hurricane?

Yes first one was Gloria on LI in NY.
Yes I was young and had no experience with these forces before.
I always have a "Survival kit" in the house.

I work in the Hospitality Industry and I choose to do so in the same areas that are Hurricane Prone. This is not due to the storms but the same environs that the storms feed on so do I (Warm water Mostly for me). It seems to me that I have a heightened desire for information than most in my industry when it comes to this season. So a great big thank you to those who support the Newbies and their quest for knowledge.
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Quoting StormW:


1.) Already experienced a hurricane...on the ocean, on a Coast Guard Cutter...Gordon...1994...wound up with an A/C separation in the shoulder.


That must have been quite an experience. I was bow watch on the Dauntless, 1979 TD Bob in the Chesapeake. Would not want to experience that again!!!
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587. Vero1
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Hey Stormw - Good afternoon.

Are we entering into that favorable for a US strike pattern you were talking about earlier?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Did anyone notice a little bit of spin? To the East of Bermuda, well Northwest of Igor?


Levi's video explains that.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
Quoting RecordSeason:
Now see here folks.

Igor looks to be drifting slightly south of west again, not that this surprises me.

Cone will shift west, west, west, west...

...as anticipated...


the more you go west the closer to a usa hit
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Quoting BlxMS:
STORM...W/o sounding like I'm secretly in love with you, I totally repsect your skills and input on all things tropical, but I'm still learning. A bit of a tech ?? for you. On the 240 hour Euro, it looks like Igo, after the recurvem is completely imbedded in some high prseeure milibars..on all sides. I seem to see that the controlling ridge does break down some from the SW at the point of recurve, but Igor seems still to pierce a 1018 isobar lying to its north. What determines how "much" of a weakness is necessary to pull (or allow for a recurve)a TC north??? Is it a raw pressure number? Or, does the pressure gradient between the weakening ridge and the TC have anything to do with a storms ability to "pierce". Also, can you give me a short description of what I've seen our here as an "omega block"? Many thanks for all your fine work and communicatios.



Good question. I too would love to know the answer.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
564:

I'm pretty sure it's a weak tropical wave that is being destroyed by a hostile environment.

OK. But at one frame, I would've sworn I saw a LLC. I'm probably hallucinating (lol) though.
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1. Have you ever wished to experience a hurricane? Sure, going through that experience, definitely makes you grow... 2. Did your opinion of hurricanes change after you experienced it? 100%.... Wind can hurt you.... Water can kill you.... You can have a lot of losses, especially if you lose someone you love... In the material side, it's better to have only one property to take care of than to have a house and a beach apartment... double headache.... 3. What changes did you make after the experience of the hurricane? I sold my Rincon PR apartment, now I only care about home..... Thanks God, I did not lose any loved one.... (HUGO, Georges)
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
Just logged in and watched Levi's tidbit for the day and just have to say that that kid ROCKS!! Kudos.
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Quoting weathergeek5:
Storm or whoever:

Have a a few questions


1. Have you ever wished to experience a hurricane?

2. Did your opinion of hurricanes change after you experienced it?

3. What changes did you make after the experience of the hurricane?


1. Went through Frances, Jeanne, Charlie, and Wilma. Missed Andrew by a day (drove back to Gainsville day before) but almost got killed in a car accident a few days later in Miami due to the storm. My family lost 2 homes and a multi million dollar business in Andrew. The insurance companies collapsed around us. Jeanne almost killed me in Tampa when a huge chunk of my backyard tree missed me and my back porch by mere inches. Was without power for weeks. It was horrible. I NEVER want to experience another one but know that I will having no plans to leave Florida.

2. I have ALWAYS respected the weather. I grew up in the charter fishing business off of Miami Beach. I have been studying and in awe of the weather before I could even read. Every time I see one coming, even after 40 years of this, it is still triggers a sense of panic and I have been doing this all my life.

3. After the first few I created firm boundaries as to when I will stay and when I will go. I won't ever go 'storm-chasing' as appealing as it seems sometimes. These storms are dangerous. Anyone who really thinks they want to experience one, who has not, really has no clue at all as to what they are in for. I would not wish the experience, even of a real tropical storm on ANYONE.

BTW! I have been trolling here for years and I just have to go ahead and say this: Just because a storm does NOT hit the continental United States does NOT make it a so-called 'fish'. If a storm affects one life or one piece of property, anywhere. There are many people between the African continent and the CONUS.
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Great Update Levi32..

Its good to have an update with the video which is also explained in layman terms so us less knowledgeable pupils of weather can understand..
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
kind of eery how there seems to be a shield around the US this year


Actually, kind of nice if you ask me.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.