Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength
A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.
Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)
Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.
Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.
Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Lol. When we got snow in December of '08. It was at night of course. That's when we get things here. Anyway talk about a bunch of pod people. We walked out of our houses, barefooted so we could get pictures before the sun came up and melted all the snow. My grandbaby made her first snowman at 3 in the morning. Poor baby was having fun til her hands went numb. She freaked out when that happened! I know we shouldn't have laughed. But...oh well I'm probly goin' to he..anyway. :)
Yep!!
Dude, wherever they find those invest renumbers is a magic magic place LOL. Trust me, they are right, when 90L was upgraded to TD 10, they were able to find that invest renumber hours before the NHC upgraded it to TD 10 at 5 AM. This'll be upgraded to TD 12 at 5 AM.
The December 2008 dusting was the first time I have ever driven in snow, and I was 31 at the time.
it was wrong lol
gfs doesn't form 92L but it develops a monster @ 300 hours...LOL
Very interesting, thanks.
Goodnight everyone.
yeah, we all run around barefoot at first too. we just aren't equipped with all the accessories for snow.....i personally don't own a heavy coat or a pair of gloves.....
It developed the same storm 24 hours ago. Needs to be watched for consistency.
You are always such a gentleman! Thank you, sir.
Yeah. I'm an old Army brat. I'd been there done that but not in a long time. There were many "Dad's and kids' first snow pictures." Lol.
We aren't prepared for anything like that either. Never thought it would happen 2 years in a row. Last year my daughter was like,"It did this last year. Now it's not special it's just a pain." Lol. She's a southern girl at heart. :)
you welcome!! Not gentleman....just don't like COLD weather....have to put on too many clothes....shorts and flip flops are my wardrobe of choice!!
Furthest east tropical cyclone formations in the Atlantic basin:
1st Place: Vince 2005
2nd Place: Christine 1973
3rd Place: Jeanne 1998
Could 93L/TD 12 become Julia fast enough to knock out Jeanne to become the 3rd furthest east tropical storm formation in the Atlantic?
Models are starting to show that Northward turn as i have been saying....need to watch this close!!!!
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED AT ANY TIME TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE
WATCHES OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR 20 MPH.
Thanks.....scary now!!
Maybe I'm ready for bed, but does anyone notice a spin at 55W 10N????
Yeah. Sigh. Wonder why the globals are dropping it?
I dont see anything.
It looks like Igor is pulling the clouds up from there and just seems to be spinning.
No spin at 55W 10N????
Well, it's time for bed...... Hasta la Vista....
Looks like things just changed completly with the EURO models....OMG.....Igor can't go through that High like that........NO WAY!
Buenas Noches :D
well the next frame turns it north anyway
A tad farther north and east than last nights run anyway.
Women and children first!!!!
LOL!
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