Igor an impressive Cat 4; 92L running out of time to develop; Julia forms
There are few sights in the natural world more impressive than a hurricane near maximum intensity. Hurricane Igor certainly fits that description this morning, as it flirts with Category 5 strength in the Central Atlantic. Igor's rapid intensification burst brought the mighty hurricane's winds to 150 mph, just shy of the 156 mph threshold for Category 5 status. Igor is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic in three years. The last hurricane stronger that Igor was Category 5 Hurricane Felix of 2007.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Igor.
Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next four days. Waters are warm, 28.5°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status for the next four days. The hurricane will probably undergo one of the usual eyewall replacement cycles intense hurricanes commonly have, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, but Igor will probably regain its lost intensity when the cycle completes. There's no evidence that an eyewall replacement cycle is imminent today, so Igor could potentially strengthen a bit more. However, I believe Igor has peaked, and will not reach Category 5 status today. By Saturday, when Igor should be nearing Bermuda, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it.
Track forecast for Igor
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure until Tuesday morning, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor appears likely to be a threat to Bermuda, and that island can expect tropical storm force winds as early as Friday. Igor does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 10 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without hitting the U.S. or Canada. While the trough expected to recurve Igor out to sea is not as sharp as the troughs that recurved Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, it should still be strong enough to keep Igor from hitting the U.S. However, Newfoundland, Canada could see a close pass. An examination of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location (Figure 2) reveals that one of these hurricanes went on to hit the Bahamas and Florida as a Category 2 storm, and another hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 storm. The other eight missed land. One wild card may be the intensification of Julia behind Igor. If Julia develops into a hurricane and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could interact, affecting the track of Igor unpredictable ways. However, it currently appears the Julia will be much weaker than Igor, and will probably have little impact on her big brother's track.
Figure 2. Historical plot of the tracks of the ten major September hurricanes that have passed closest to Igor's current location.
Caribbean disturbance 92L
Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, centered about 100 miles south of Jamaica, has changed little over the past day. The storm remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression, but time is running out for it to do so. Satellite loops this morning do not show a surface circulation, but 92L does have a moderate area of intense disorganized thunderstorms that are bringing heavy rain to Jamaica this morning. Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 0.67" of rain thus far this morning from 92L.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 92L.
Forecast for 92L
Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate for the next five days. The waters beneath are hot, 29.8°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air has been interfering with development of 92L. NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday at 40%. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become any stronger than a tropical storm with 50 mph winds by Wednesday, when it will move over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico several hundred miles south of the Texas border. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon.
Julia
Tropical Storm Julia formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa yesterday, bringing some heavy rain squalls and gusty winds to the Cape Verdes, but no sustained winds of tropical storm force. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas . Shear is low enough over the next few days to allow Julia to become a hurricane, but shear will rise sharply 4 - 5 days from now, limiting the potential for Julia to become a major hurricane.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a new tropical depression to form off the coast of Africa 6 - 7 days from now.
Next post
I'll have a new post Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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All right
Dejen el TV prendido en Univision para que Susan los levante a Gritos tempranito.....
Let me know DBW. I have more than enough server to handle it and plenty of PC to handle the graphic processing as well. It is actually a very similar concept to the 3d radar, with less actual data to deal with.
That is interesting, animals know more than us.
ha! LOL!
Night!
I asked this myself yesterday and was told about 10-13 miles tall
havent the models showed 92l developing for the last few days?
So far this year it seems like its either a weak ts/ swirl. or a monster hurricane.
In the meantime, I am steaming some Lobster and chilling some Chablis, just in case....
Always liked a good breakfast.
loves nam
;)
What? Igor is bringing us lots of love? O.o LOL!
Till tomorrow!
;)
I know.. he is a fairly easy target... mind you.. I have never tried to harp him before.. umm I am not even sure if I can... and from what I can find on google...I am pretty sure I don't want to.
'nite all....
Ignore Igor. He may go away...
:)
yuh don' kno what you missin'
hehehehh
tomorrow>>>>>>>>>>>
Long time lurker and former denizen of the Texas coast, and this is my first post in this blog. Thanks for your mercy.
In looking at ~11 year cycles back into storm history here:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hurrarchive.asp
... there is definitely a repeating pattern presumably due to our sun's heartbeat.
There is a pattern, and that pattern indicates we are seeing an affront of tropical activity that predictably steers into landfall, if not the Gulf. It may not happen this year, but next year is, "historically", not looking very good.
With that I'd just like to troll a bit for some information on the implications and realities of our coast's susceptibility. I just want to know why people will live on the coast when they know what is eventually going to happen. Moreover, I was curious about the consensus of emergency preparedness on part of our government with regard to the imminence of disaster.
Don't get me wrong. I have been in my share of rough seas in the Gulf, tied to rigs that have beaten our boats to pieces, all for the love of the salt air, sand, and bright skies on the water and back on land alike.
I just want to see a migration so we can prepare future generations for life without suffering. This country is the one that can do it and I am baffled by the willful ignorance at hand.
tl;dr
Why are you living on the coast? There are many fish in the sea but we are not living in casks carved from giant trees anymore. Spread the word!
:)
2010SEP14 031500 6.5 937.0/ +2.0 /127.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT ON FLG 16.04 -61.13 EYE 28 IR 17.75 51.18 COMBO
2010SEP14 034500 6.5 937.0/ +2.0 /127.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 NO LIMIT ON FLG 15.84 -61.48 EYE 29 IR 17.77 51.24 COMBO
Raw T#'s increasing again
Gaining some latitude, nothing significant, but at least it is gaining, LOL!
.
The other party was a no-show, unfortunately. With that I'm off to sleep and hopeful that both sides show tomorrow for the benefit of us all, and more importantly, that this %@&^$#$% cyclone starts heading North asap.
.
May we all be safe...so we can sack the fool that named this beast Igor.
Sounds like a slogan. LOL!
What is that I can't read the print?
Thanks
PSL, you have mail.
And here's the entry page to that loop...If that is indeed the Goes 15 Science test. Should be no blackout with it.
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