A rare triple threat: three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998.
Figure 1. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Karl
Hurricane Karl continues to intensify. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight, flying at 12,000 feet, found flight level winds of 95 mph. This suggests surface winds of 85 mph, though the top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument were about 80 mph. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the outer spirals bands of Karl are dumping heavy rains on the Mexican coast along the Bay of Campeche.
Figure 2. Afternoon radar image from the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The eye of Karl is visible in the upper right, and rain bands are affecting the coast to the east of the radar site. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service..
Forecast for Karl
Conditions for intensification are ideal in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, with wind shear expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into Category 2 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico Friday afternoon. Karl is a small storm, and is unlikely to bring any rain or wind to Texas.
Igor
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters made their first foray into Hurricane Igor this afternoon, and found a high-end Category 3 storm, with a central pressure of 940 mb and top winds at 10,000 feet of 150 mph. The southwest portion of the eyewall was open, so Igor has the potential to intensify once again if it can close off the gap. There are no major changes to the track or intensify forecast for Igor in the latest set of model runs. Igor is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next two days, and is headed northwest at 7 mph. This motion will carry the core of the hurricane close to NOAA buoy 41044 between 9 - 11 pm EDT tonight. Top winds at the buoy so far today have been 65 mph, gusting to 81 mph, with a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 2 - 4 days from now. The GFS is suggesting the eastern Caribbean could see a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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they are all fish storms. the forecast for all these US strikes was and is a bust. some here are trying to hard to cover that up, or to predict doom in the future. there isn't even anything out there that COULD hit the US now!
Well said !
You see that is why some get the wrong idea of the US and I must say rightfully so, though I'm pro USA and probably always will be , sometimes certain people come across as if that is the only place on earth that counts or have human being inhabiting it, enough said , Have a goodnight everyone!!
Well, that would be the case if it were to hold true, however I remember the NHC saying Igor may go wnw for a little bit in the 12-36 hour range. So I am not sure if the pinch will get tighter or pull apart again. In any means it will add more of a west movement but still wnw to nw, any west movement in great news for Bermuda, I think it might get to 70W which would really ensure Bermuda dodging a GIGANTIC bullet... pun intended
Watch the movement of Igor
Gr Earth
Yes
Good to see you. Igor still looks impressive. could you talk to the ridge bridging that got posted
ok, thats what I thought
As in grlevelx?
Good luck to all of you on Bermuda. If you are already prepared maybe you can check on neighbors and be sure they are prepared. Every little bit helps.
Yes it's the latest product from Mike Gibson and will be $15 a month/ $180 a year and is in open trial status. Details on my site and also in the Gibson Ridge owners forum
Hes 940 mb, so the 940-949
If he strengthens at 11pm, then you use the <940 maps
Don't worry too much about where in the GOM. It will change from run to run. Right now simply pay attention that in 10 days or so a storm could threaten the GOM region. Anywhere from Texas to FL. Storm has been talking about this for the past couple of weeks.
I believe we're talking about 30 ft. seas and 36 hours of tropical force and some hurricane force winds. So yeah, if Igor doesn't get pulled to the west you're gonna get hurt. What's news like now on Bermuda? What are people thinking and doing there now? Forecast to be a CAT 3 over or near the island.
no problem at all Kristina :)
Thanks!
Would be nice to get a fresh microwave pass.
wait, what the ...really. So there are no trolls anywhere but the US? Ugg stop feeding the trolls and they will go away. Trolls live in all countries that have bridges.
Exactly! Formation of this storm is looking likely, and all of the Caribbean and Gulf needs to keep abreast of it if/when it forms.
It is quickly running out of time though, i don't know if it gets to cat 3 like people are saying, I say low-mid cat 2
this may help
AL, 13, 2010091700, , BEST, 0, 197N, 941W, 85, 971, HU
So we have a Category 1 Hurricane (Julia), a Category 2 Hurricane (Karl), and a Category 3 Hurricane (Igor).
It will be interesting moving forward....
If I understand this correctly, the bouy reports just once per hour. The last report was received at 8:50PM Eastern, and the next one should be transmitted in about five minutes. The lowest one-minute pressure in the hour previous to that transmission was recorded in the last sixty seconds. In other words, by shear coincidence, the regular report came just as the Bouy was moving out of the eyewall and into the eye. That's why the falloff in winds was less dramatic than it might have been.
The next report will certainly show higher pressures, winds, and waves. The thing to watch for will be in the supplementary data, where it reports the lowest one-minute pressure recorded in the previous hour. If you're correct that Igor has a central pressure even lower than 940MB, that's how we'll find out.
PSUweathermet: I appreciate you answering my question, I thought it was closing up but really didn't know if that's what it was showing.
Thank You,
sheri
gigantic...
Still shows you that storm intensity is much harder to predict than storm direction--this was not supposed to reach above a Cat1, and Julia bursting to a Cat4 yesterday was also unexpected.
Hurricane Karl 85KTS ~ 100MPH. Watch out Mexico.
This one is fairly recent (little over two hours old):
Did you hear the news, Drak?
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