Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.

Jeff Masters

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1514. xcool
lololol
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Quoting doorman79:


Its a shame, he dont now what he is wishing for :(


Yup... And he is wishing for me and my family here in Florida...

Looks like we have an ID Ten T problem on our hands here!
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1511. will40
if you guys would stop feeding the nut head he would leave.
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If that's not a real eye opener then I don't know what is! That is something I never want to go through.
Quoting Patrap:
Video taken by Guerra Family during Hurricane Katrina. Chalmette, LA.

12 Miles East Of Downtown NOLA.



Food fer thought,

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Quoting FloridaCaster:


?


Sigh...................
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1508. xcool
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Quoting KoritheMan:


At least he's finally displaying a good quality: honesty. Hence the name, as well as his "hopefully Florida gets a cane".


Right now, it's looking more than hopefully, it's looking more like it might.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


At least he's finally displaying a good quality: honesty. Hence the name, as well as his "hopefully Florida gets a cane".


Its a shame, he dont now what he is wishing for :(
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Quoting Patrap:
1491. CosmicEvents 10:47 PM CDT


The George Ohr Jardiniere goes on Auction tomorrow.


And judging by the On-line bids,,itsa going to be a winna says the Haus.

Shameless Auction Plug for a Mudbaby from The Picasso of Pottery George Ohr being offered Tomorrow and Saturday.

Portion of the proceeds to go to Portlight. So Bid High and often on this one of a kind piece.Over 110 years old.

George Ohr Auctioned Lot,,Jardiniere



nice piece. i like the color. my father-in-law collects Newcomb pottery. he buys it all from Neal Auction house. some really pretty pottery. i love the vases with big full moons in the sky
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Quoting caneswatch:


Obvious person is obvious.


At least he's finally displaying a good quality: honesty. Hence the name, as well as his "hopefully Florida gets a cane".
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1501. Patrap
Nitey...
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Thunderstorms slowly building in the wake of Matthew.  Watch for persistence.  If we get that, with rather low pressures in the W. Caribbean, development is possible.

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nite pat
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1497. xcool
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1496. xcool
da
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1494. Patrap
1491. CosmicEvents 10:47 PM CDT


The George Ohr Jardiniere goes on Auction tomorrow.


And judging by the On-line bids,,itsa going to be a winna says the Haus.

Shameless Auction Plug for a Mudbaby from The Picasso of Pottery George Ohr being offered Tomorrow and Saturday.

Portion of the proceeds to go to Portlight. So Bid High and often on this one of a kind piece.Over 110 years old.

George Ohr Auctioned Lot,,Jardiniere

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1493. txngeo
Quoting scott39:
have you looked at the latest tropical points turn to the N at the end?

Is that N or S? The lat/longs show the NHC is stopping Matthew just shy of the BOC, then it wanders S and SE really slowly.
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Peace Pat!
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Wait, Pat...how'd the spitoon do at auction?
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Quoting Patrap:
Well..Im heading up to play er, "football" upstairs.

G'Night wundergrounders.


TMI
G'nite
;-)
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That pic was -_-. Yes, I have a BA in Poli-Sci.
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1486. Patrap
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I only pray no one who should evacuate ever stays behind again. As the gentleman said, "It won't happen to me." But it can.


True dat,,.
True dat
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1484. xcool


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Would this be the expected trough that is going to move Mathew North???

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Quoting Patrap:


I saw Rats,cats,squirrels and nutria so tired from swimming after K,they all shared the same roof like ,,yo,Im way too tired to fight .


I only pray no one who should evacuate ever stays behind again. As the gentleman said, "It won't happen to me." But it can.
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is the 0z just coming out now?
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Quoting weatherwart:
Two great things about Florida in October, stone crab season and the first cold front. If they happen to coincide, that's heaven, baby!

If thats not the truth Id rather be a liar!
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1474. Patrap
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Wow, Pat. I never thought about the snakes and other animals. I can't imagine.


I saw Rats,cats,squirrels and nutria so tired from swimming after K,they all shared the same roof like ,,yo,Im way too tired to fight .
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1472. xcool


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1470. Patrap
Quoting Abacosurf:


Thats a good video. Thanks for sharing.


Nothing like hearing words of wisdom from the mouths of one who should have left.
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Quoting Patrap:
Video taken by Guerra Family during Hurricane Katrina. Chalmette, LA.

12 Miles East Of Downtown NOLA.



Food fer thought,


Wow, Pat. I never thought about the snakes and other animals. I can't imagine.
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Two great things about Florida in October, stone crab season and the first cold front. If they happen to coincide, that's heaven, baby!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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