Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Levi32:


Yes it's better organized than 11am. It will continue organizing and becoming stronger until landfall in the Carolinas.

I have heard from people on here that it is falling apart lol

Quoting Levi32:


Yes it's better organized than 11am. It will continue organizing and becoming stronger until landfall in the Carolinas.

it is getting slightly tighter correct?

got weather bug on my puter...don't follow it as a religeon but it does send alerts so that i can get on Wunderground and see what is up

Quoting Levi32:
Vorticity gradually getting tighter and more circular.

I also notice ex-Lisa and ex-Julia are still out there, very tenacious storms and vorticity with 2 of the waves from Africa as well.

We're under 997mb now. 33042

Folly Beach, SC Link

Quoting Hurricanes101:


I have heard from people on here that it is falling apart lol

Lol. I guess it has to be bombing out to be strengthening.

Quoting Levi32:


Lol. I guess it has to be bombing out to be strengthening.

yup

lots of wind and heavy rain right now in west palm beach, closed the shutter in the patio to avoid rain coming in

Quoting presslord:
Folly Beach, SC Link

PRESS!!!!!! how's it hangin?

Quoting gordydunnot:
Also these storms in s. fl. today have lightening which I would assume comes from the frontal system, so things maybe interesting enough already.Lastly Atmo or any of you skilled Mets, how are the cape values and atmospheric spin for Fl. this evening tomorrow if you don't mind.

Tropical systems contain lighting as do normal afternoon thunderstorms.

Station FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC
September 28, 2010 5:00 pm EDT
Location: 32.685N 79.888W
Wind Direction: S (170°)
Wind Speed: 6.0 knots
Wind Gust: 7.0 knots
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.75 in (1007.3 mb)
Pressure Tendency: -0.04 in (-1.4 mb)
Air Temperature: 77.0°F (25.0°C)
Dew Point: 58.3°F (14.6°C)

Quoting Levi32:


Yes it's better organized than 11am. It will continue organizing and becoming stronger until landfall in the Carolinas.

so it will not hit FL?

Flood waters rising...

Link

Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


so it will not hit FL?

Where did I ever say that lol.

It will be getting better organized and strengthening as it crosses Florida.

Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME
WHAT WILL TD 16 BE AT THE FLORIDA LANDFALL
A. 35 MPH
B. 40 MPH
C. 45 MPH
D. 50 MPH
E. 55 MPH OR GREATER

B

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Tropical systems contain lighting as do normal afternoon thunderstorms.

True I remember I got a nasty thunderstorm from Earl.

if a center does reform just west of jamaica how will this effect the storms path?

Press....what's ur take on a chas hit thurs?

Quoting Levi32:


Where did I ever say that lol.

It will be getting better organized and strengthening as it crosses Florida.

Sorry Levi. Did not read back. My bad

The storm isn't falling apart. Convection wise it's looking kinda sloppy, but the actual structure of the storm has improved. The core continues to tighten up (slowly). It's just that the low pressure is so broad. It's impossible for it to consolidate quickly like a lot of Atlantic storms that we've been accustomed to seeing.

Quoting kimoskee:
Flood waters rising...

Link

Getting a whole lot of rain in Kingston also.

Hey Tigg!!!!!!!!!!! Breezy and very wet....schools likely to close...

Quoting charlottefl:
The storm isn't falling apart. Convection wise it's looking kinda sloppy, but the actual structure of the storm has improved. The core continues to tighten up (slowly). It's just that the low pressure is so broad. It's impossible for it to consolidate quickly like a lot of Atlantic storms that we've been accustomed to seeing.

You know how this blog works

If there is not an eye by tonight, it will be RIP LOL

21n 82.5?

Evening All. Why does the NHC dissipate the low after 72 hrs? I am expecting some nasty weather from this storm in the northeast.

Quoting presslord:
Hey Tigg!!!!!!!!!!! Breezy and very wet....schools likely to close...

after the rain we just got too...hear tell winds in the 50-60 range...that means the bridges all closed too...yay....home with a 6 year old, prob no power and too wet to play outside.....

Is the possibility of this thing strenthing as it comes over the Gulf stream and then the Everglades.

ODPEM is putting emergency teams on standby Link

Quoting breald:
Evening All. Why does the NHC dissipate the low after 72 hrs? I am expecting some nasty weather from this storm in the northeast.

Not dissipate, extratropical transition.....that's the whole problem with stripping away the name while it's still causing tropically-induced dangerous weather. Of course it will be partly non-tropical but keep the name....that way people know to be prepared. It won't be like a regular frontal wave it will obviously be tropical in origin and people will know it when it passes over.

Has not quit raining for an hour where I am in Broward County. My dog has to have a huge turtle head. Can't get him out for a walk.

Put rgb in motion at nhc seems to be a weak spin just west of Tampa heading do north is this a weakness td 16 may follow.

Quoting tiggeriffic:


after the rain we just got too...hear tell winds in the 50-60 range...that means the bridges all closed too...yay....home with a 6 year old, prob no power and too wet to play outside.....

he can go down to henry's with me, nash, stormjunkie, and chucktown...we're gonna need a designated driver

Levi,
Do you think this has any chance of becoming a hurricane before FL landfall? The NHC gives 3% chance in next 24hrs, so it is still a small possibility to them, but I know they are usually conservative in their percentages. It seems the shear from the cold front will prevent intensification, but I still worry about something coming out of that area.

Quoting sammywammybamy:
Expect a Tad Shift Left at 11pm.

That means more rain and wind for us so they should reconsider closing schools or not.

Current steering setup:

Quoting presslord:


he can go down to henry's with me, nash, stormjunkie, and chucktown...we're gonna need a designated driver

roflmbo...don't offer HIM that...he'd take you up on it!!! sure...a 6 year old as your designated driver...i can see it now...hope your insurance is paid up! roflmbo

Quoting flhurricane:
if a center does reform just west of jamaica how will this effect the storms path?

center wont reform W of Jamaica...

There are different factors going into this right now. Main thing is the trough digging down into the southern GOM and also the ridge actually building in the western Atlantic due to the digging trough in the GOM. The trough is almost near 83W. 83? well that would seem to stall the LLC or even push it SSW (and you can see it actually doing that with a vortex moving that way out of the broad circulation. But if this is the main LLC, it will be left behind as energy forms from a new Baroclonic low near Florida and heads up rapidly on Weds to the Carolinas. This will let the original TD16(or TS) behind in the NW Carribean before it starts moving N later this week.
Other scenario is for the Broad LLC move NNE over the next 12-19hrs to the Everglades of Florida and become embedded with the trough as the new Non-tropical low takes shape from the energy transfer and moves to the Carolinas.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


I have heard from people on here that it is falling apart lol

I've heard that from too many systems this year.

I'm pretty impressed we're at 16L on September 28th.

Hey Press and Tig - not much of an impact expected here in Charleston. Mainly a heavy rain set up late tonight and Wednesday. Most of the wind impact will be near Myrtle Beach and eastern NC. In fact, when the center of the storm is just east of us on Thursday, our weather will begin to clear out. There is going to be a very sharp moisture gradient with this. I-95 east will be quite wet, but once you get out towards Columbia, very little rain.

Maybe I'm crazy, but I see what could be 3 centers, one NW of Grand Cayman(the official one), one SE of Grand Cayman and the other WSW of Grand Cayman, this is one huge complicated system IMO.

Quoting tiggeriffic:


roflmbo...don't offer HIM that...he'd take you up on it!!! sure...a 6 year old as your designated driver...i can see it now...hope your insurance is paid up! roflmbo

You don't like to swear do you tigger?