Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

LOOKS LIKE COC RELOCATING TO JUST SOUTH OF ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA, WITH 4-5 PUFFS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO FORM AROUND THAT PERIMETER.

Quoting stormpetrol:
My personal take on TD#16 , it is actually 2 separate systems, the official one IMO will not amount to much wind wise(Rain&flooding yes), The mean COC is around 18N/79W maybe off a degree, but personally I think this is main area greatest concern, JMO. THis has the greatest potential IMO opinion to become a dangerous system windwise and otherwise!

Are you seeing a North wind on your station now ??.

Quoting wxhatt:

Maybe find it here?
Link

Thanks for that..
Montego Bay,
Pressure 1003 Rising (strange, that)
Winds south

Tampa Bay schools should close tomorrow with all other public offices.

Quoting surfmom:
what are the "consequences" if any for the "incorrect"?

"It shows the 1004 mb isobar passing right through Grand Cayman approximately yet we know that all afternoon and currently the pressure has been sub 1000 mb. In fact it is 998 right now. Who comes up with these images and on what basis ?. This one is obviously incorrect".

If you are still on, I think the L is 995mb as of the last advisory for reasons already mentioned.

Winds generally "catch up" to the pressure, so it is significant in that regard.

That being said, as large as the system is, that will take a long time, so it is not the same as a "normal" system.

Sea level Pressure

Ships in the vicinity of TD 16 were reporting readings above 1000 mb. as late as 12noon. One of these was 1009 mb.

Global Ship Locator (sailwx) see ORCASYSTEMS blog

Quoting Orcasystems:


You got flippers on yet??

Nope, they are in reserve.

Actually been fairly dry here tonight-- I'm in the small clear space you see on the radar.

Quoting zoomiami:


Agreed -- what happens if a truly strong storm heads our way? So many have been minimal or bypassed us, that people will write it off and not prepare.

Same would happen here. Too many scares over nothing.

Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Quoting stormpetrol:
My personal take on TD#16 , it is actually 2 separate systems, the official one IMO will not amount to much wind wise(Rain&flooding yes), The mean COC is around 18N/79W maybe off a degree, but personally I think this is main area greatest concern, JMO. THis has the greatest potential IMO opinion to become a dangerous system windwise and otherwise!

That may have been what the models were trying to pick up on, but got confuzzled. Too much activity all in one area.

Quoting BahaHurican:
On the pple drowning in flooding in FL, u need to get real. It doesn't even need to be a hurricane - all that has to happen is that the flooding be enough to cause someone to get into one of those "drainage" pools or a canal. Every year there are flooding related deaths in SFL because people can't tell where the road ends and the canal begins - and they drive in and DROWN.

Don't downplay the danger. Just because FL is flat, it can't be assumed that the risks are nil.

Yes, people drown by driving into canals, but not because of flooding; they drive into canals because blinding rain has obscured their vision, because they are distracted, because they are drunk, because they lose control of their cars for a host of other reasons, but not because of flooding.

Difficult though it may be, think for a moment. Flooded roads slow a car's momentum and stall its engine; they do not cause it to accelerate into a canal.

Floods lead to intersection drowning deaths in most parts of the country, but not here.

Quoting sammywammybamy:


No.

If the Schools in SE Florida are not closing. There is a 0 Percent Chance of Tampa Schools Closing.

hold on it's funny ill tell ya why just now.

Quoting sammywammybamy:
TD 16 is Blowing up Convection now to the SE of the Center.

shhhh - don't give it any ideas. Where are you located?

Quoting zoomiami:


Nope, they are in reserve.

Actually been fairly dry here tonight-- I'm in the small clear space you see on the radar.

wait for it... you might need a snorkel.

I don'y think it will be a TS by 11. After it passes Cuba it could though but then it will already be to late to cancel school because we will be in school by then.

MAYBE I SHOULD HAVE SAID LLC

West Bay kmanhurricaneman

somehow I am seeing the possiblity of the COC being relocated to near 18.5N 80.9W or a much stronger one there

YAWN!!!!!!

Greetings, Orc.

Making progress crossing Cuba. Should be north of there by sunrise.

Quoting pottery:
Greetings, Orc.

Good evening Sir... I see you have company coming still.

Quoting jambev:
Montego Bay is reporting light but steady rain falling.Here in Kingston, we have had several fast moving squalls but currently not raining.The main convection now seems to be over us especially in the west.This is one strange system.

Good to see a fellow Jamaican blogger, currently in my location there's a light drizzle with pressure fluctuating around 1002 mbar, winds calm.

Is that a new COC I see forming just west of Jamaica, and where all that heavy convection has been persisting for two days? If so, then these forecast models are off the mark.

Heck, it looks like that dang thing is about to form an eye. Talk about the magma chamber filling up fast. She's about to pop a new vent.

Quoting MZT:
Right now I think 50/50 chance this never gets named. TS winds forecast to be well offshore... rather non-tropical pattern to it. Will probably begin to look like a hook-shaped nor'easter by the time it approaches N.C.

Disagree. Winds will catch up to the pressure enough before transition, imo.

Think I should stock up in floaties for my lil ones at school..

is that yellow circle out in the atlantic potential Otto?

Link

I see two spins on this loop. One looks like the llc at aroung 20n 83w diving se toward the convection. The other looking like a mlc at around 22n 81w. I think this may be having vertical stacking issues.

CENTER LOOKS SOUTH OF THERE TO ME CAN YOU EXOAND THAT RADAR VIEW?

The question of the night is apparently "Are the schools closed? lol..I hope, wherever you are, that you get a last minute reprieve from the governor(school board) and you get that school close at 11. SC at 11!! I'm glad that's the question of the night....though I'm concerned about heavy rains in the mountains of Jamaica.

Quoting A4Guy:
YAWN!!!!!!

I am sorry this is not one of those hurricanes you like to track so much

if you are that bored then why are you here? lol

Just as I thought models move back east

Well heck!
At this rate fickle #16 is going to meander around for 36 hrs.
Reform here and there.
Then only get its act together at the tail end of the front near Cozumel.
Either that or shoots off to the NNE like forecast to.
Well?
So I am crazy!
So is Monsoonal development!

I don't have a weather station (PS3 got more votes in the family vote) but the hot tub is full again from constant rain all day - will have to lower the water level again tomorow.

News of landslides and flooding on both tv stations.

As I type start of another heavy downpour...

Quoting goofyrider:
Sea level Pressure

Ships in the vicinity of TD 16 were reporting readings above 1000 mb. as late as 12noon. One of these was 1009 mb.

Global Ship Locator (sailwx) see ORCASYSTEMS blog

thats 11 hours ago...

I SHOULD SAY EXPAND THAT RADAR VIEW

Quoting Orcasystems:


Good evening Sir... I see you have company coming still.

Yep.
And she looks quite Attractive from here....

Quoting kshipre1:
is that yellow circle out in the atlantic potential Otto?

Either Otto or the "P" storm. The recent models call for Otto to form in a few days from the W Caribbean and they develop that tropical wave also.

Stay turned "As the Tropical Cyclone Turns", sponsored by "La Nina" and a "Juicy Atlantic/Caribbean Sea"!

does jamaica have radar?

Quoting kshipre1:
is that yellow circle out in the atlantic potential Otto?

yeah nhc was giving it 10% earlier I wonder if they raised it.

Quoting CosmicEvents:
The question of the night is apparently "Are the schools closed? lol..I hope, wherever you are, that you get a last minute reprieve from the governor(school board) and you get that school close at 11. SC at 11!! I'm glad that's the question of the night....though I'm concerned about heavy rains in the mountains of Jamaica.

In Jamaica there have already been reports of landslides and flooding. Thankfully I haven't heard of any deaths. Source- Jamaica Observer