Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.

Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.

Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.

Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)

Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.

Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)

Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!

Categories: Flood Tornado Hurricane

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1552. PSLFLCaneVet 4:03 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Grothar: How about "Stormy Weather" by the great Lena Horne. It is also on topic. We can't get banned for that one. Ah, wisdom never goes out of style. I will busy myself. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1555. NRAamy 4:04 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Tampa...you're right, it is because of money...floaters are expensive...trust me... Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

1556. TampaSpin 4:04 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Did they take Invest 97L off......it is missing on some sites.....WOW Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1557. CaicosRetiredSailor 4:04 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting pottery: Yeah! The Voodoo works. Did you notice how the Satellites went down when that heavy stuff was overhead here today, and when they came back up, the Waters were Parted and Diverted to Guyana and Grenada? (sorry for them, but I look out for No.1) hmmmmmmmmm...... Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5123

1558. TampaSpin 4:05 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting NRAamy: Tampa...you're right, it is because of money...floaters are expensive...trust me... LMAO.....you have had too many purple drinks tonite.....LOL Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1559. gordydunnot 4:05 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
NRAAMy I prefer to double down myself it's discounting at it's best. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1562. GeoffreyWPB 4:07 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: I've posted that before. Although I like the Billie Holiday cover better. Billie Holiday was great. What a voice! Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9122

1563. NRAamy 4:08 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
How about "Pennies from Heaven"? Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

1564. pottery 4:09 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: The original, I believe. Hope it meets with your approval. One of The Best! Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1565. pottery 4:10 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting NRAamy: How about "Pennies from Heaven"? Hundred dollar bills would be better.... Inflation and all that, you know. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1566. Grothar 4:10 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: The original, I believe. Hope it meets with your approval. Where did you ever find that? She was one beautiful woman. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527

1567. pottery 4:11 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Hey, I just realised that it is October... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1568. PSLFLCaneVet 4:11 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting pottery: One of The Best! Good evening Pottery, Hope the weather's not treating you poorly. Looks like the area we spoke about, is trying hard. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1569. JLPR2 4:12 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Firing up near 15N, 50W Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1570. NRAamy 4:12 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Happy October.... :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

1571. pottery 4:12 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting pottery: Hey, I just realised that it is October... Yeah? So What? Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1572. geepy86 4:12 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Pennies From Heaven - Billie Holiday sorry tried to link it Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1611

1574. pottery 4:14 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: Good evening Pottery, Hope the weather's not treating you poorly. Looks like the area we spoke about, is trying hard. Trying it's best! I hope it goes POOF! Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1575. PSLFLCaneVet 4:14 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Where did you ever find that? She was one beautiful woman. No argument there at all. YouTube. It's a wonderful resource. I am sincerely gratified that you enjoyed it. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1576. PSLFLCaneVet 4:15 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting pottery: Trying it's best! I hope it goes POOF! Agreed! Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1577. NRAamy 4:16 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Hahahahahahahaha! Love it, Orca!! :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

1578. gordydunnot 4:16 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Critics agree this is best blog in America. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1579. pottery 4:17 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting pottery: Yeah? So What? Dont be so Aggressive! Are you a Troll? October starts with O Orca starts with O Otto starts with O Trouble starts with Oh ** see?? Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments:** 20708

1580. TampaSpin 4:17 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
97L is starting to look like the beast coming from the East on models. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1581. GTcooliebai 4:17 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Good Night All! Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5177

1582. GeoffreyWPB 4:18 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9122

1583. Grothar 4:19 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting GTcooliebai: Good Night All! Not GT. Don't like that map though. Too close to home. You know how long it takes us to evacutate on walkers. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527

1584. NRAamy 4:19 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Pott....it seems all my harping on my non-husband has turned his mind to glue.... Get a hold of yourself, man! Here, try this redbull.... Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

1585. pottery 4:19 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: 97L is starting to look like the beast coming from the East on models. Looks like a Scorpion to me. On the Rainbow.. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1586. Orcasystems 4:20 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting pottery: Dont be so Aggressive! Are you a Troll? October starts with O Orca starts with O Otto starts with O Trouble starts with Oh ** see?? hey... O I get it Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments:** 26077

1587. Bielle 4:21 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting pottery: I am sure that lots of people live close to there. But they dont discuss weather at midnight. They dont even blog. I wonder why??? ORCA: I'll be there in December. Does that help? Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600

1588. Orcasystems 4:22 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: 97L is starting to look like the beast coming from the East on models. yeah... those 3's do give it a little level of respect don't they Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1589. JLPR2 4:22 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Also another little thing, sorry for interrupting your awesome self conversation Pottery! The new area of developing convection is pretty much aligned with the 850mb vort. Carry on Poterry, but dont go around making handles like ''DudePoteryisCool! XD Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1590. pottery 4:23 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting NRAamy: Pott....it seems all my harping on my non-husband has turned his mind to glue.... Get a hold of yourself, man! Here, try this redbull.... Oh Lord, save me from this Woman..... Red Bulls Brown Cows Purple Hippos.... We are all DOOM....... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1591. GeoffreyWPB 4:23 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9122

1592. Orcasystems 4:24 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting Bielle: ORCA: I'll be there in December. Does that help? Sure... I want two FULL bottles... they will only ship EMPTY bottles...some silly customs regulation... who buys an EMPTY bottle of rum? Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1593. Orcasystems 4:25 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting pottery: Oh Lord, save me from this Woman..... Red Bulls Brown Cows Purple Hippos.... We are all DOOM....... Sounds like some barn yard cereal.. Lucky Farms Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1594. xcool 4:25 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1595. JLPR2 4:25 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Since it is pretty quiet tonight, how about some ratings for my last AC? Pretty please! :] Link Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1596. xcool 4:26 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
south Haiti Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1597. zoomiami 4:26 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting pottery: Oh Lord, save me from this Woman..... Red Bulls Brown Cows Purple Hippos.... We are all DOOM....... lmao Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

1598. pottery 4:26 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Also another little thing, sorry for interrupting your awesome self conversation Pottery! The new area of developing convection is pretty much aligned with the 850mb vort. Carry on Poterry, but dont go around making handles like ''DudePoteryisCool! XD Not sure I like the look of that... And I promise I wont change my name. I am much too arrogant for that.......... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1599. beell 4:27 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Not looking too tropical tonight. Loop Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12875

1600. Orcasystems 4:27 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting zoomiami: lmao Thank god Zoo is here.. maybe sanity will prevail? Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1601. Grothar 4:28 AM GMT on October 01, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Since it is pretty quiet tonight, how about some ratings for my last AC? Pretty please! :] Link We will if you explain what AC means. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527

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