Strengthening Tomas headed for the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Storm Tomas has exploded into existence in spectacular fashion, becoming the nineteenth named storm of this amazingly active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. I'm reporting to you live from the National Hurricane Center tonight, where forecasters are working hard to stay abreast of Tomas' intensification. Three hurricane specialists are on duty tonight--Dave Roberts, who is handling Tropical Storm Shary, and Robbie Berg and Dan Brown, who are focusing on Tomas. The Hurricane Hunters have just left Tomas, as of 8pm EDT, and they found a significant increase in winds. Winds at their 1500 foot flight level were 70 mph, and surface winds as measured by the SFMR instrument were near 60 mph. This supports an increase in Tomas' winds to 60 mph in tonight's 8pm EDT public advisory. Since this is such a large increase in intensity from what was forecast--Tomas was not supposed to have 60 mph winds for another 24 hours--this necessitates issuance of a special advisory package. A full set of forecast maps, a marine advisory, wind probability forecast, and a discussion just went out to the world. While all this was occurring, several phone calls to Barbados, St. Lucia, and Martinique were made, alerting the islands to the fact that a Hurricane Warning may be required with the 11pm advisory tonight. NHC has both French speaking and Spanish speaking meteorologists on staff that can coordinate with the islands that don't have English as their main language. I listened in on a 5-minute conversation in French between the weather service in Martinique and NHC meteorologist Mike Tichacek, as they discussed when Martinique may want to issue a Hurricane Warning.
Figure 1. Warren VonWerne (right) of CARCAH presents the latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters to hurricane specialist Robbie Berg.
Intensity forecast for Tomas
The forecasters at NHC are puzzling over the latest intensity forecasts for Tomas. The latest intensity forecast from the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models are not that impressive, and they keep Tomas as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane for the next five days. The wind shear forecast from SHIPS is particularly odd--the latest 18Z forecast predicts high wind shear of 20+ knots beginning Sunday morning, and the previous SHIPS forecast held wind shear below 15 knots for the next five days. The latest runs by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models all show a very favorable environment for intensification over the next five days over the Caribbean, with Tomas positioning itself beneath an upper level high in a light wind shear environment. The best bet is that Tomas will intensify into a major hurricane over the Central Caribbean by early next week.
Figure 2. NHC meteorologist Mike Tichacek discusses the latest intensity forecast for Tomas with the Martinique weather service (in French.) In the background, hurricane specialist Dave Roberts works on advisories for Tropical Storm Shary.
Track forecast for Tomas
After Tomas reaches the central Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, there are two possible track scenarios depicted by the models--a continued westerly motion towards Nicaragua, or a sharp turn to the north, with a track over Hispaniola or Puerto Rico. Steering currents will be weak, and we'll just have to wait and see how the steering currents evolve.
Tomas' formation location unprecedented this late in the season
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.
The formation of a tropical storm so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (60°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 60°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 60°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua.
Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic Ocean on October 29. There have been only four hurricane seasons since 1851 that have had two simultaneous named storms later in the year. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.
Next update
I'll have more late Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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These was a terrible decision and all of us who are threatened with seasonal storms are realizing the repercussions. OK, done preaching/complaining - I really should go get some sleep.... Hope I wake to better news.
If i had to put a guess on a ConUs landfall currently. Looks like a Northern Gulf Coast problem coming.
Bill Proenza, a very nice and smart guy.
Stay vigilant.
Translation
I feel that in Martinique tomorrow we will have a very nasty surprise! The population is barely prevented by Météo France!!
Not really sure how that is possible with the strong front coming down. There is a small chance that any part of the US is affected and if there was a spot that could be, it would be Florida.
Now that is scary, hydrus!
I'd venture a guess that a major hurricane affecting Haiti right now would have a 10 or even 100 times higher death toll then Katrina, people living out in the open under tents with 110 mph+ winds blowing debris around like crazy isn't exactly protection.
coc...or eye feature now coming into view on radar...looks to pass just south of barbados...looks like there is an attempt of an eyewall ...the western side that you can see is still pretty weak...but i have a feeling in the upcoming 6-12 hours when the convection completely surrounds and/or is overtop the coc...look out...
will check back in the morning...goodnight...stay safe islanders...tomas, BEHAVE...
night...
Hope you have a whale of a time!!
Not really sure what strong front you see.....
We have a situation being dependent on chance, due to a number of variables that already are on the way interacting between them. It's nature and mankind has no way of altering this.... If the resulting consequence of those variables is to move Thomas over any particular area, that will be.... Sure, we all want it to stay away from Haiti.... with the Cholera epidemic and the earthquake crisis is enough.....
It's spot on the advisory from the NHC.
21L/H/T/C1
MARK
12.55n/59.25w
Not sure that front will come. Look at the Model loops....they almost open up from the South. I don't like the Models as they will be changing.
Average Position Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
CMC CONSTANT 36.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
HWRF INCREASING 79.8 215.6 102.2 -1 -1
LBAR INCREASING 107.6 178.3 204.1 -1 -1
BAMD INCREASING 144.1 250.4 315.2 -1 -1
MM5B DECREASING 167.2 144.3 114.4 -1 -1
GFDL CONSTANT 281.1 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5E CONSTANT 285.8 -1 -1 -1 -1
KHRM CONSTANT 321.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
OFCL CONSTANT 329.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
I still think it has a good chance to eventually be swept NNE, if that's over Hispaniola, Jamaica & Cuba or farther west, we'll have to see.
I noticed on the CMC, that all of a sudden, there was a trough.
So this trough is going to open up for the south rather from the North as usual.......I don't buy into this this at all.
102hrs no trough anywhere.
Ther 24hours later that high is destroyed.....I don't buy it at all
Wrong. You are misreading the models, since when do those maps indicate frontal zones?
See the big red mass heading south from the northern U.S. in all of those model loops? Yeah, that's a huge fall canadian high headed south following the passage of a front.
The obvious and logical paths for Tomas include either getting picked up by the trough if its strong enough, and swung northward and then northeast. Or the trough will miss Tomas and he will be steered west towards central america, either way, both are terrible predicaments.
But to indicate Tomas is any threat to the U.S. just doesn't make any sense.
Put the Rosary Beads away K'Man
Pottery - stay alert
The season has been west for model shifts. - Tomas will be east of models - hopefully east of Hatia
So it is said, so it will be done.
Station 41040
NDBC
Location: 14.477N 53.008W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 30 Oct 2010 04:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.3 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F
Viewing: 351 - 401
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