Northeast U.S. digs out from yet another history-making snowstorm
The remarkable Post-Christmas blizzard of 2010 has ended for the United States, as the storm has trekked northeastward into Canada. The blizzard dropped epic amounts of snow during its rampage up the U.S. Northeast coast Sunday and Monday, with an incredible 32" falling in Rahway, New Jersey, about 15 miles southwest of New York City. The highest populated areas of New Jersey received over two feet of snow, including the Newark Airport, which received 24.1". Snowfall amounts were slightly lower across New York City. The blizzard of 2010 dumped 20.0" inches on New York City's Central Park, making it the 6th largest snowstorm for the city in recorded history, and the second top-ten snowstorm this year.
Figure 1. Scene from Brooklyn, New York after the Post-Christmas blizzard of 2010. Image credit: Wunderphotographer AK2NY.
Remarkably, New York City has had four of its top-ten snowfalls in the past decade (highlighted in the list below.) According to the National Weather Service, the top ten snowstorms on record for New York City's Central Park since 1869 should now read:
1) 26.9" Feb 11-12, 2006
2) 26.4" Dec 26-27, 1947
3) 21.0" Mar 12-14, 1888
4) 20.8" Feb 25-26, 2010
5) 20.2" Jan 7-8, 1996
6) 20.0" Dec 26-27, 2010
7) 19.8" Feb 16-17, 2003
8) 18.1" Mar 7-8, 1941
9) 17.7" Feb 5-7, 1978
10) 17.6" Feb 11-12, 1983
Newark's 24.2" was one of that city's top-ten snowstorms of all-time, and the 20.1" that fell on Atlantic City, NJ was the city's second largest snowfall in history. Atlantic City's three biggest snowstorms have all occurred in the past ten years:
1) 21.6" Feb 15-18, 2003
2) 20.1" Dec 26-27, 2010
3) 18.2" Feb 5-6, 2010
Philadelphia, PA picked up 12.4", the city's fourth one-foot plus snowstorm in just over a year--a remarkable string of storms, considering the city has had just 24 such snowfalls in history, since 1884. According to phillyweather.net, the latest snowstorm brought Philadelphia's 2010 snowfall for the calendar year to 67.3", breaking the mark for snowiest year ever (previous record: 57.0" in 1978.)
The 18.2" that fell at Boston's Logan International Airport made the storm Boston's 8th biggest in history:
1) 27.6" Feb 17-18, 2003
2) 27.1" Feb 6-7, 1978
3) 26.3" Feb 24-28, 1969
4) 25.4" Apr 1, 1997
5) 19.8" Mar 3-5, 1960
6) 19.4" Feb 16-17, 1958
7) 18.7" Feb 8-10, 1994
8) 18.2" Dec 26-27, 2010
8) 18.2" Jan 7-8, 1996
10) 17.3" Feb 5-7, 1920
Some selected city snowfall amounts for the December 26-27, 2010 storm:
Rahway, NJ 32.0"
Great Kills, NY 29.0"
Piermont, NH 25.0"
Newark, NJ 24.2"
Landgrove, VT 21.0"
Atlantic City, NJ 20.1"
NYC Central Park, NY 20.0"
Boston, MA 18.2"
Ocean City, MD 13.5"
Philadelphia, PA 12.4"
East Providence, RI 10.0"
Danbury, CT 11.1"
Augusta, ME 15.0"
Dover, DE 9.0"
Asheville, NC 9.0"
Bridgeport, CT 8.0"
Huntsville, AL 6.0"
Chattanooga, TN 3.0"
There's a great 40-second time-lapse video of 32 inches of snow accumulating at Belmar, NJ.
Figure 2. The annual average number of snowstorms with a 6 inch (15.2 cm) or greater accumulation, from the years 1901 - 2001. A value of 0.1 means an average of one 6+ inch snowstorm every ten years. Image credit: Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States, J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 8, pp. 1141-1155, DOI: 10.1175/JAM2395.1.
An unusual number of top-ten snowstorms for the Northeast in recent years
The Northeast has seen an inordinate number of top-ten snowstorms in the past ten years, raising the question of whether this is due to random chance or a change in the climate. A study by Houston and Changnon (2009) on the top ten heaviest snows on record for each of 121 major U.S. cities showed no upward or downward trend in these very heaviest snowstorms during the period 1948 - 2001. It would be interesting to see if they repeated their study using data from the past decade if the answer would change. As I stated in my blog post, The United States of Snow in February, bigger snowstorms are not an indication that global warming is not occurring. The old adage, "it's too cold to snow", has some truth to it, and there is research supporting the idea that the average climate in the U.S. is colder than optimal to support the heaviest snowstorms. For example, Changnon et al. (2006) found that for the contiguous U.S. between 1900 - 2001, 61% - 80% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters with above normal temperatures. The authors also found that 61% - 85% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters that were wetter than average. The authors conclude, "a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000." The authors found that over the U.S. as a whole, there had been a slight but significant increase in heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. If the climate continues to warm, we should expect an increase in heavy snow events for a few decades, until the climate grows so warm that we pass the point where winter temperatures are at the optimum for heavy snow events.
I've done some other posts of interest I've done on snow and climate change over the past year:
Hot Arctic-Cold Continents Pattern is back (December 2010)
The future of intense winter storms (March 2010)
Heavy snowfall in a warming world (February 2010)
Jeff Masters
12-27-10 BLIZZARD WILDWOOD NJ (
SHEPPARD)
DUDE WHERE'S MY TRUCK
Our first snow of the season.
Reader Comments
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Hello...so it's all or nothing?
Having a discussion here.
That is exactly right. The biggest issues I see right now is many of these alternatives have either been supressed by competing corporate interests (ie: OIL), are subsidized to gain votes (corn ethanol), the infrastructure is not in place (plug-in or hydrogen cars), or simply not developed enough to gain mass-market appeal (Li-ion batteries in cars).
The ultimate climate threat. A must read.
Just to pick nits.. a few posts ago you found it very helpful to extol the virtues of freedom and how it is provided by those that fight for us in the armed forces. I don't care how much of my tax dollars go to support weapon research and funding the military, I considered that money well spent.
You can hand wave the points I made and say that those things make up a small amount of our expenditures, but I purposefully, for the same of brevity kept that list short. Are you really coming in on the side that our government isn't wastefully spending our money? One only has to look at the recent bills that the lame-duck congress was trying to push through to see what I'm talking about. These runaway spending bills add up, and they take their toll.
As far as funding the study of weather and climate, I'd be just as happy with the government staying right out of that as a general principle. Everything they touch turns to a red-tape filled bureaucratic nightmare of bloated dead ends.
If the government could find a way back to solvency and stop wasting tax dollars, I might trust them again. As it stands, I don't see that happening.
Same to you...My apologies for coming on so strong. Must be all that egg nog! Best Regards.
Oh, our government is wasting away money like a drunken sailor in a bordello, don't get me wrong. It just drives me CRAZY to see people complaining about high taxes and loss of freedom, when the real problem is our elected officials wasting our tax money.
Amendment 10:
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.
Don't see anywhere in there where the govt is supposed to look out for the little guy. Maybe I missed it. Please point it out to me.
LOL, did ya buy the featured book ?
Perhaps this might better fit your bias :)
http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/1997/96JC03981.shtml
How funny, no matter the information, always use a distraction to deflect the facts.
Urban dictionary word of the day. Congrats!
The two aren't exclusive, in fact one has a very direct effect on the other. Wish it wasn't so...
Bailed-Out Banks Slip Toward Failure
Wanna know how your bank or CU is fairing?
Check their star rating below. If they are low, ya know ya better go before the blow :)
bank
Credit Union
out >>>>
Lake Charles, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
862
WUUS54 KLCH 300159
SVRLCH
LAC001-019-023-053-113-300300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0061.101230T0159Z-101230T0300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
759 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES HAYES...
EASTERN CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE RANGE...ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE
REFUGE...LACASSINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...KLONDIKE...GRAND
CHENIER...CAMERON...
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES LAKE ARTHUR...
VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...FRESHWATER CITY...PECAN ISLAND...KAPLAN...
GUEYDAN...FORKED ISLAND...ABBEVILLE...
* UNTIL 900 PM CST
* AT 758 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A BAND OF STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...FROM 7 MILES EAST OF
HAYES TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* BAND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE ARTHUR AND KLONDIKE BY 805 PM CST...
RICEVILLE AND GUEYDAN BY 815 PM CST...
PECAN ISLAND AND MORSE BY 820 PM CST...
WRIGHT AND LYONS POINT BY 825 PM CST...
FRESHWATER CITY AND KAPLAN BY 835 PM CST...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IS POSSIBLE. STAY INDOORS...AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.
National Weather Service New Orleans la
330 PM CST Wednesday Dec 29 2010
Long term...
the main upstream kicker for tonights weather is a large upper
level low pressure area which has moved into the Pacific
northwest. This low will move rapidly to the central rockies on
Thursday and then northeast to the western Great Lakes by Friday
night. A large slow moving upper level low pressure trough will
extend from the low. Embedded within this trough will be a slow
moving cold front which will act as a genesis area for numerous
showers and thunderstorms across southeast la and southern MS
Friday and Friday night. By that time there should be a good
connection of deep tropical moisture into the central Gulf states.
In addition...the forecast area will be in the distant right rear
quadrant of a large 120 knot jet located in the Southern Plains.
This upper level jet is ideally place to ensure that southeast la
and southern MS will be very near the axis of a 40 knots 850 mb
jet. This means there will be good low level convergence and upper
level divergence in place for US.
So conditions appear to have become
more favorable for a Maddox synoptic heavy rain episode to develop
new years evening. The cold front should move into the coastal waters
Saturday morning where it will become stationary through Sunday.
So the rain threat will continue through rest of the weekend. This
pretty close to what the GFS model is projecting. However...the
European model (ecmwf) model shows a much slower movement off the la and MS coast
on Saturday which would mean a continued threat of more heavy rain
for extreme southeast la and coastal MS. So the forecast Saturday
is somewhat uncertain at this point and may need to be amended if
the emcwf model turns out to be right.
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