2010: tied with 2005 for warmest year in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:23 PM GMT on January 16, 2011

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The year 2010 was tied with 2005 as Earth's warmest year in history, according to separate calculations performed by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Temperatures during 2010 were 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average. Reliable global temperature records go back to 1880. NOAA reported that the Northern Hemisphere had its warmest year on record in 2010, the Southern Hemisphere its 6th warmest, land areas their 2nd warmest, and the oceans their 3rd warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures of the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere during 2010 were virtually tied with 1998 for warmest on record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The 1998 temperatures were 0.01°C warmer than 2010, but the difference is so small that the two years should be considered tied for first place. These measurements are very sensitive to the effect of major El Niño events that warm the waters and atmosphere over the Eastern Pacific. Thus the 1998 El Niño--the strongest such event ever recorded--set a global lower atmospheric temperature record that had been impossible to match until 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for 2010. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Earth's warmest temperatures in 2010, relative to average, occurred in western Greenland and eastern Canada, where record-duration sea ice loss contributed to temperatures that were 9°F (5°C) above average for the year (Figure 1.) The coolest temperatures, relative to average, were in central Siberia, 5.4°F (3°C) below average. In addition to being the warmest year on record globally, it was also the wettest (Figure 4.)


Figure 2. The latest rankings by NOAA of the hottest years globally since 1880. Earth's ten hottest years have all come since 1998, and the decade of the 2000s was by far the warmest decade in the historical record. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 3. Global departure of temperature from average for 1880-2010, as computed by NASA.


Figure 4. Global departure of precipitation from average for 1900 - 2010. The year 2010 set a new record for wettest year in Earth's history. The difference in precipitation from average in 2010 was about 13% higher than that of the previous record wettest year, 1956. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A record warm year during a deep solar minimum: an unusual occurrence
The 2010 record warmth was unusual in that it occurred during a period when energy from the sun was at its lowest levels since satellite measurements began in the 1970s. The 11-year sunspot cycle causes a 0.1% variation in the amount of energy reaching the Earth. White et al. (1997) found that sea surface temperatures varied by about 0.04 - 0.07°C on time scales of 11 - 22 years due to this change in solar energy, with temperatures lagging the sunspot cycle by 1.5 - 3 years (because the ocean is slow to heat up and cool down in response.) So, although solar activity began to pick up somewhat in 2010, the 1.5 - 3 year lag in ocean temperature response meant that the record low solar activity of 2008 - 2009 was what affected global temperatures in 2010. Given that the departure of Earth's temperature from average during 2010 was 0.62°C, this difference would have been perhaps 10% greater had we been 2 - 3 years past the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle. The previous global temperature record, set in 2005, occurred 3 - 5 years after the twin-peaked previous solar cycle. It is very difficult to get a record warm year during a deep solar minimum, making the 2010 record one likely to be broken later this decade as the sun begins to exert a greater warming influence on the planet.


Figure 5. During 2008 - 2009, the energy from the sun arriving at the top of Earth's atmosphere (Total Solar Irradiance, or TSI) as measured by satellites fell to its lowest value since satellite measurements began in 1978. Image credit: Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center.

References
Skepticalscience.com has an in-depth discussion of Solar activity & climate: is the sun causing global warming?

Wunderground climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has a comprehensive 5-part series on how the sun affects climate.

Gray, L.J., J. Beer, M. Geller, J.D. Haigh, M. Lockwood, 2010, "Solar Influences on Climate", Accepted in Rev. Geophys, 2010.

White, W.B., J. Lean, D.R. Cayan and M.D. Dettinger (1997), Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 3255-3266.

Thunderstorms hurl antimatter into space
NASA announced this week that mature thunderstorms can produce antimatter when exceptionally powerful lightning bolts occur. The antimattter beams were detected by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. The amount of antimatter produced is tiny, though, and probably not enough to help power a starship.

"Cap'n, we're running low on antimatter to power the warp engines. Can you fly in low over those thunderstorms to replenish our reserves? We'll use the transporters to gather the antimatter and funnel it into the antimatter containment vessel."

"OK, Scotty!"

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting presslord:
oooopppss...forgot who I was for a moment there ; )
thats alright i forget who iam everytime iam here
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Quoting breald:


How is that a good analogy? We had a machine gun ban in this country until 2004 when the Bush admin let it expire. Did you feel like your rights were being hindered because you could not by a machine gun prior to 2004?


This really isn't the blog and I don't want to hinder the debate going on in here right now. So if you do want to continue this then I can talk to you about this in my blog if you'd like or we can just drop it your choice see you over there ;)
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
Quoting HaloReachFan:


You don't hear them trying to take pillows away after somebody gets smothered in one. Just saying... Hopefully that doesn't happen but the analogy works.


How is that a good analogy? We had a machine gun ban in this country until 2004 when the Bush admin let it expire. Did you feel like your rights were being hindered because you could not by a machine gun prior to 2004?
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oooopppss...forgot who I was for a moment there ; )
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569. DEKRE
Quoting Levi32:


For example, all the big snowstorms on the big continents can be directly tied to increased air pressure over the arctic.


Interestingly enough, here in Quebec we usually have about 2 m of snow by mid January and a meter on the ground. This winter, as last, we can admire our lawn.
Member Since: April 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
.
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Quoting breald:


Well, I am not sure why an average citizen would need a machine gun that can shoot 30 rounds in a few seconds.



You don't hear them trying to take pillows away after somebody gets smothered by one. Just saying... Hopefully that doesn't happen but the analogy works.
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
Quoting DEKRE:


And the cause is?


There are theories, but the polar annular modes are not yet fully understood, and the force that causes atmospheric mass to shift between the poles and the lower latitudes has yet to be discovered. It is likely that stratospheric processes have something to do with it, but it is still being studied. All we know is that it does appear to be cyclic, and has specific consequences on the world's climate. For example, the big snowstorms on the northern hemisphere continents can be directly tied to increased air pressure over the arctic.
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565. DEKRE
Quoting Levi32:


...the last two years have seen some of the lowest values of the AO ever recorded since 1950, and massive gains in air mass over the north pole....


And the cause is?
Member Since: April 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
Quoting HaloReachFan:


I agree.

‎"After a shooting spree, they always want to take the guns away from the people who didn't do it. I sure as hell wouldn't want to live in a society where the only people allowed to own guns are the police and the military" - William S. Burroughs


Well, I am not sure why an average citizen would need a machine gun that can shoot 30 rounds in a few seconds.

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Quoting MichaelSTL:
It is also likely that the recent Arctic warming is still being underestimated since while GISS extrapolates temperatures over the Arctic, they don't extrapolate the zonal trend, which is increasing right up to their cutoff - which is very likely not the case, as I drew in on the second graph:





As an example, the largest anomalies (in excess of 20%uFFFDC) here are over the Arctic itself:



Yet this warming isn't being caused by what AGW theorists insisted would be the root of arctic ice melt and temperature rise. Namely, lower atmospheric pressures in the arctic and a more positive AO. Instead, the last two years have seen some of the lowest values of the AO ever recorded since 1950, and massive gains in air mass over the north pole. Somebody's model projections aren't turning out as planned for the last 20 years or so.
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Today we Celebrate Martin L. King Jr's Birthday, which is Jan 15th,and celebrated as a U.S. Federal Holiday.,the following Monday.


Tucson, King and Kennedy
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Quoting MichaelSTL:


People do a pretty good job killing each other without guns; they are only convenient to use - if somebody wants to kill somebody else, they use whatever is handy (plus, guns have some disadvantages, such as noise; of course, you don't need close contact).

Also of interest, and in the same thread:

55 Percent of Gun Deaths in America are Suicide

Of course, if somebody is suicidal, they will find some way to do it, gun or not


I agree.

‎"After a shooting spree, they always want to take the guns away from the people who didn't do it. I sure as hell wouldn't want to live in a society where the only people allowed to own guns are the police and the military" - William S. Burroughs
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563
Quoting Chicklit:
Thanks, breald. We finally had our first decent rain in what seems like about six months in Central Florida today.


I heard you guys had some stormy weather earlier.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Afternoon Wunderfolks,
Any chance the northeast will get another blizzard out of this?
Link


Greetings,

It would appear that more winter weather is on the way…See Winter Weather Advisory posted below for most of the northeast:


Statement as of 3:14 PM EST on January 17, 2011
... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 am EST Tuesday...

* Precipitation type: snow... sleet and freezing rain.

* Accumulations: 1 to 3 inches of snow... followed by a period of sleet and freezing rain. Between one-tenth and two-tenths of an inch of glaze is possible.

* Timing: snow begins 800 PM and 1100 PM... changes to sleet and freezing rain after midnight... then changes to plain rain after 900 am Tuesday.

* Temperatures: below freezing when the snow begins but rising to 32 or a bit higher by 900 am Tuesday.

* Impacts: all untreated surfaces will be hazardous later tonight and conditions may not improve until shortly after sunrise Tuesday. Be prepared for some travel delays overnight and Tuesday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving.

v/r

Jon
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Thanks, breald. We finally had our first decent rain in what seems like about six months in Central Florida today.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
Quoting Chicklit:
Afternoon Wunderfolks,
Any chance the northeast will get another blizzard out of this?
Link


If this is the storm that will hit tomorrow it will be mostly rain. The interior will get snow, but the winds will not be string enough for a blizzaard.
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Quoting MichaelSTL:


Uh-oh...

Scientists warn California could be struck by winter ‘superstorm’

The scientists built a model that showed a storm could last for more than 40 days and dump 10 feet of water on the state. The storm would be goaded on by an "atmospheric river" that would move water "at the same rate as 50 Mississippis discharging water into the Gulf of Mexico," according to the AP. Winds could reach 125 miles per hour, and landslides could compound the damage, the report notes.

Such a superstorm is hypothetical but not improbable, climate researchers warn. "We think this event happens once every 100 or 200 years or so, which puts it in the same category as our big San Andreas earthquakes," Geological Survey scientist Lucy Jones said in a press release.




Here is what the last one did:

THE GREAT CALIFORNIA FLOOD OF 1862

In 1860 California had been a state for 10 years. The state hired an excellent team of men from Yale, including Josiah Whitney and William Brewer, for a long term in-depth investigation of the state’s resources. They were just two years into their studies when the great flood of 1862 bankrupt the state, and soon thereafter terminated their lofty project. A fourth of the state’s economy was destroyed.

This flood transformed the Sacramento Valley into an inland sea, covering the tops of telegraph poles with steamboats passing over the farmlands to deliver goods and rescue survivors. The Santa Ana River formed two large lakes – one in the Inland Empire and another in the flood plain of Orange County. Probably the only definite high water mark in Southern California is at the Aqua Mansa, just south of the present city of Colton. Hydrologic studies at Aqua Mansa, document a discharge in 1862, three times the magnitude of anything since. In Northern California, a high-water measurement on the American River in 1862, suggesting a very high flow, appears to be ignored.


No, not saying that it will happen soon.



ok
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Afternoon Wunderfolks,
Any chance the northeast will get another blizzard out of this?
Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
clay pigeons do not 'die' when you shoot them...and as for underwear Pat...well...at your age...you probably oughta go easy on the starch...
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Thanx for the Local Elevated Snow/Rain report.

Always Like to see real weather in play.

La Nina a Phunny gurl fer sure.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Quoting calusakat:
506. MrMixon 2:03 PM EST on January 17, 2011


Your suggesting that my purpose is to foment anger and resentment tells me, either you are not a regular reader here or that you are also attempting to redirect my words.

I will choose to believe that you are not a regular here.


I have no need or desire to redirect your words -  I think your post (#502) speaks for itself.  I don't mean to single you out - I'm a semi-regular reader of this blog and I've seen many, many folks resort to name-calling and insults rather than making a substantive point.  

Look, if your goal is to change minds, you might consider a different approach.  That's all I'm saying.  I think you know exactly what I mean.


Happy MLK day,
Dave


PS -  I should at least contribute something weather-related lest I wear out my welcome here.  It rained in Boulder, Colorado last night.  Rain... at 40-degrees North and 5,300' above sea level... in January.  It's virtually unheard-of to have rain in our neck of the woods this time of year.  I live up in Nederland (8,300') and it was coming down as snow there, but temps were above freezing at sunrise and it was melting nearly as fast as it fell.  La Nina is a strange little girl, that's for sure...
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..out in San Diego during Summer 1980 the Drill Instructors made us wash our underwear and our Rifles.

No Starch on the Weapon though.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
thing that make you go hmmmm are they for real?


From a CPC statement the other day:

…EXTENDED W-COAST OUTLOOK…
MODELS HINTING ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN BREAK IN ABOUT THE
7-10 DAY PERIOD… POSSIBLY EVEN LATER. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT THUS, THOUGH.
WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING TROPICAL MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE PAC THE
PASSED COUPLE OF WEEKS AND HAVE NOTED A SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN PWAT
VALUES AND TROPICAL CONVECTION.
DUE TO SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE WEST COAST… AND OTHER
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC, THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN HELD BACK FROM MOVING WESTWARD.
IF THESE HIGHS WERE TO MOVE… AND A LOW PRESSURE WERE TO EJECT FROM THE WPAC
STRAIGHT FORWARD TO THE EAST PAC… WE COULD HAVE A SERIES OF VERY SUBSTANTIAL STORM
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH, POSSIBLY A ONCE IN A CENTURY STORM
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Quoting presslord:


Agreed...to say the 'only purpose of a gun is to kill' is analogous to saying 'the only reason to get married is so I have someone to wash my underwear'....


So that is what it's for!!!!!!
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540. xcool
Link


17 January: The Next Winter Storm

ImpactWeather,.
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Quoting calusakat:


Is that all you use them for?

No wonder you said what you did.

Guns are fun.

They make loud noises and flash just like fireworks.

They are fun to take to the firing range for target practice.

In some places you can even take them for target practice in the woods.

Guns are fun.





Agreed...to say the 'only purpose of a gun is to kill' is analogous to saying 'the only reason to get married is so I have someone to wash my underwear'....
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

I know that is Donalds nephews, but are you kinda compairing me to them? or the 3 Stooges?

Hey Moe, Hey Moe..Yuck,yuck,yuck


Comparing?

Not at all.

You asked for sources.

You twisted my arm and I dimed them out.

Its all your fault. :-(

Are you trying to make me feel guilty or something?

Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Guns serve one purpose and that one purpose is to kill.


Is that all you use them for?

No wonder you said what you did.

Guns are fun.

They make loud noises and flash just like fireworks.

They are fun to take to the firing range for target practice.

In some places you can even take them for target practice in the woods.

I like doing both.

Guns are fun.



Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Quoting Neapolitan:

You'll note that I didn't specify just violent crimes(there are different reasons for the drop, one of which may shock you; just google "crime rate freakonomics"), nor did I say they hadn't dropped. I just said the U.S. is at or near the top of global crime lists. Here, I will do someone else's internet research:

--From 2000-2004, the U.S. was ranked #78 in the murder rate, meaning it's more likely you'll be murdered here than in such places as Nigeria, Iran, or Yemen.

-- The U.S. is ranked #6 in assaults per capita; one is more likely to be assaulted here than in Mexico, Colombia, or Zambia.

--The U.S. is ranked a runaway #1 for one particular type of violent crime, and #9 per capita; a person is more likely to be a victim of this crime in the U.S. than in Zimbabwe Romania, El Salvador, or Belarus.

--In general the U.S. is ranked #8 in total crimes per capita. That means an American is more likely to be the victim of a crime than someone in Russia, Venezuela, or Jamaica.

The point of all this being: if, as the gun lobby says, more guns equals less crime, we should be at or near last place in all crime categories. But we're not. There are by most estimates 270 million non-military firearms in this country, far more than there are in any of the numerous other nations with fewer crimes. People are free to read into that what they will, but to me it seems pretty obvious that having more guns doesn't necessarily make a nation more safe.

And, yes, enormous thanks to Dr. King for his courage and vision. It's amazing what great changes "radical" liberalism can bring about. If only there was more of it...


Greetings,

While I am certainly not going to knock you for your beliefs with regard to guns, everyone certainly has a right to their own opinion. I could care less what any lobby says. But, I am very thankful that my state allows me to protect my family and myself, based on my previous statements. Your use of statistics from Potius and Nation Master are quite interesting, as well as your conclusions based on those statistics. I will stick with the rather hopeful statistics from the FBI. If one has a preconceived notion, it would be quite hard to encourage deep thought, regardless. To imply that Americans would be safer in places such as Russia and Nigeria is simply astounding. I, for one, would prefer to stay in the greatest nation on the planet, and take my chances here. Freedom is an awesome thing my friend. Think about it. Crime and all.

I will, however, have to take issue with your statement/implication regarding Dr. King. You stated: “It's amazing what great changes "radical" liberalism can bring about. If only there was more of it...” You, Sir, have clearly not made an effort to understand Dr. King. He would most likely be considered a Social Conservative in today’s environment. To make any other assertion, is well, is just plain wrong. Many have attempted to speculate about his beliefs, and imply affiliation with their own cause. He did not want the sad welfare state we currently have, but instead wanted to see people become responsible for their own lives. He believed in changes within the law, not outside of them. To even imply that Dr. King believed in “radical liberalism” is truly to misunderstand what he stood for, and believed in. In my humble opinion, radical liberalism is not, and will not, do this country any favors. Just look around you my friend. Really.

Free speech and thoughtful debate are truly good. However, when one plays fast and loose with facts and figures, challenges are expected to follow. Flawed logic and resorting to name calling and defamation serves no useful purpose, except to expose oneself as perhaps not the critical thinker one appears to be. A “radical” thought for sure, but none the less true. I am not implying that you have engaged in name calling or defamation with me personally, but there does seem to be a tread, and it is not helpful, nor thoughtful. Take care, and have a great day.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
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Quoting calusakat:


Okay twist my arm.

Huey, Dewey and Louie.

Just don't let them know I dimed them out.

I sorta promised them I wouldn't.

If you hadn't twisted my arm...



I know that is Donalds nephews, but are you kinda compairing me to them? or the 3 Stooges?

Hey Moe, Hey Moe..Yuck,yuck,yuck
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Dammit Jim........Nea, Please don't take any hidden arms. Not acceptable in Collier county
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Quoting pipelines:
Your argument is completely invalid due to your only source of proof being a number set that holds almost no validity in a world wide sense. Your list includes reported crime rates from various countries, these are REPORTED crime rates. How likely do you think ms. US suburbs is going to report getting raped? How likely is it that ms. Mexican villager is going to report being raped? I'm not saying having fire arms decreases crime rate, as there is no evidence of that, but I'm also not saying having fire arms increases crime rates, because there is also no evidence of that.

If you want to compare our crime rates to another country, you have to use per capita and the country has to be of very similar socioeconomic structure. Otherwise the data is useless.



Guns serve one purpose and that one purpose is to kill.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

calusakat...With your statement "I just consider the source" it implies to me you know me, or know of me, or know of my posts from the past...Please give me a few references of how you can say that...Ony 3 will suffice, I'm not pushy


Okay twist my arm.

Huey, Dewey and Louie.

Just don't let them know I dimed them out.

I sorta promised them I wouldn't.

If you hadn't twisted my arm...


Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Quoting pipelines:
Your argument is completely invalid due to your only source of proof being a number set that holds almost no validity in a world wide sense. Your list includes reported crime rates from various countries, these are REPORTED crime rates. How likely do you think ms. US suburbs is going to report getting raped? How likely is it that ms. Mexican villager is going to report being raped? I'm not saying having fire arms decreases crime rate, as there is no evidence of that, but I'm also not saying having fire arms increases crime rates, because there is also no evidence of that.

If you want to compare our crime rates to another country, you have to use per capita and the country has to be of very similar socioeconomic structure. Otherwise the data is useless.


Those statistics are from the CIA. Dispute them if you wish, but you should do so on a scientific basis, not an emotional level. The fact is, there are 270 million (or more) non-military, non-police firearms in the U.S. That's 90 guns for every 100 citizens. (Second place belongs to Yemen, with 61 guns per 100 people. Yes, Yemen: that hotbed of terrorist activity.)

Fact #1: If guns prevented crime, America would be the safest nation on the planet.

Fact #2: America is not the safest nation on the planet. Not by any measure.

My assertion, then: more guns ≠ more safety.

On purely logical and statistical grounds--that is, without talking about the Second Amendment or individual freedoms or whatever--I challenge anyone to disprove that.

I'm out until much later this evening. Try not to miss me... ;-)
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I passed, It isn't me...Thank goodness.It's one of you other 4 people...
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Quoting help4u:
One in five people in United States is mentally ill,and 20%of population is liberal!

So help4u...You are saying either you, myself,Ossqss,Neapolitan,or calusakat is mentaly ill...Let me think about that..I am taking the online test as we speak.
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One in five people in United States is mentally ill,and 20%of population is liberal!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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