Another flooding mega-disaster: Sri Lanka recovers from extreme flooding
At least 43 are dead and thousands still in refugee camps due to extreme flooding in eastern Sri Lanka caused by record monsoon rains. According to the United Nations, the rains in recent weeks in Sri Lanka have been the heaviest in nearly 100 years of record keeping, and the flood that resulted was a 1-in-100 year event, according to The U.N. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. Rainfall at Batticaloa, Sri Lanka, during the 42-day period December 1 - January 12 was 1606 mm (63"), which is about how much rain the station usually receives in an entire year (1651 mm, or 65".) Sri Lanka's previous most devastating flooding disaster was the 2004 tsunami, but as The Economist commented, "in terms of the numbers of people displaced and farmland inundated, the floods have been even more devastating than the tsunami of December 2004." Damage estimates start at $500 million, and much of Sri Lanka's agriculture has been severely damaged by the disaster. Also of concern is the large number of land mines from the recent Sri Lanka civil war that may have been unearthed by the floods. Water is also a major concern in the flood-hit area, as fighting between government forces and Tamil Tigers rebels from mid-2007 to May 2009 damaged or destroyed almost all of the water facilities.
Figure 1. A family affected by the 2011 Sri Lanka floods braves the flood waters. Image credit: United Nations.
Sri Lanka is now the fifth nation in the past six month to suffer a flooding disaster unprecedented in its history. As I reported in a previous post, the other four mega-impact floods--the July 2010 Pakistan floods, the December - January Queensland Australia floods, the November 2010 Colombia floods, and the January 2011 Rio de Janeiro floods--were all accompanied by an atmosphere laden with moisture, due, in part, due to sea surface temperatures over nearby ocean areas that were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record. However, that was not the case for the Sri Lanka floods. Ocean temperatures during December 2010 were 0.2°C below average in the 5x5 degree square of ocean adjoining the island (5N - 10N, 80E - 85E). The floods appear to be due to the normal monsoon rains that typically affect the region this time of year, enhanced by the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Satellite-estimated precipitation over Sri Lanka for January 3 - 9. Up to 18 inches (525 mm) fell over eastern Sri Lanka. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Jeff Masters
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The price of climate change?
By MICHAEL RICHARDSON
SINGAPORE — Generations of Australians have learned that their island-continent is a land of alternating droughts and floods. Recent prolonged rain and devastating flooding across eastern Australia, particularly in the state of Queensland, underscore this heartbreaking cycle.
Weather experts say that the immediate cause is natural: a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature of the central Pacific Ocean along the equator and in air pressure of the atmosphere above. Known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it affects weather patterns in many parts of the Pacific, including Australia and Southeast Asia.
However, there are also signs that that ENSO itself may be affected by man-made climate change. As Queensland counts the heavy financial cost, some fear that the economic disruption and damage to industry and infrastructure may be repeated more often and more intensely in Australia in future. Losses to the Queensland economy and the cleanup bill are expected to exceed $10 billion. The national growth rate may also take a hit. Queensland is Australia's largest coal exporter — mainly to Asia — and accounts for about 20 percent of the country's $1.2 trillion economy, which relies heavily on mineral, energy and farm exports.
ENSO has two extreme phases in its typical seesaw every three to eight years. One, El Nino, is associated with hotter than normal temperatures and diminished rainfall. The other, La Nina, usually brings above-average wet weather and lower temperatures.
The Australian government's Bureau of Meteorology said earlier this month that the La Nina phase bringing the deluge to eastern Australia was the strongest since at least the mid-1970s. As a result, Australia had its third wettest year on record in 2010.
Indonesia's Met Office reported recently that rain across the far-flung island-nation would continue until June. It said the dry season, which normally starts in April and lasts until October, would only start in July. Meanwhile, Brazil and Sri Lanka have been hit by unusually heavy and damaging downpours, just as northern Europe and much of the United States feel the bite of abnormally frigid winter weather.
Despite these bursts of wet and cold weather, two leading U.S. climate agencies said on Jan. 12 that the average land and sea surface temperature last year tied with 2005 as the warmest on record since data collection started in 1880. The global temperature was 0.62 degree Celsius above the 20th-century average.
Attributed by many scientists to the growing release of carbon dioxide, methane and other global-warming gases from human activity into the atmosphere, this temperature rise is happening at the same as the natural ENSO cycle. James Hansen, director of one of the U.S. climate agencies, said that the average global temperature increased as fast in the past decade as in the prior two decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations associated with ENSO.
A summary on the state of the Australian climate published last year by the Met Bureau and the CSIRO, Australia's leading scientific research organization, said that in the past 50 years the mean temperature in Australia had risen by about 0.7 C and was projected to increase further by 0.6 to 1.5 C by 2030. It said that if global greenhouse gas emissions continued to grow at business-as-usual rates, Australia could be 2.2 to 5.0 C hotter by 2070.
Scientists say that the warming trend increases the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts and floods. In addition to being the equal hottest year ever, 2010 was also the wettest on record. A hotter world causes more evaporation from land and oceans. A warmer atmosphere holds and releases more water, which can mean more violent storms and bigger floods.
The equatorial expanse of the Pacific, which is far larger than the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, is critical to the development of ENSO. During La Nina, trade winds blowing west bring moist air to northern Australia and Indonesia. Heated by the tropical sun and warm water, the air rises to create towering bulbous clouds and heavy rainfall.
A question that must concern Australia and Southeast Asia is whether man-made global warming from burning fossil fuels and clearing forests is intensifying natural weather patterns like ENSO and, if so, how?
It is clear that if an exceptionally dry El Nino phase occurs against the backdrop of long-term man-made global warming, one will make the other hotter. This happened in Indonesia in 1997-98 during the Asian financial crisis when forest fires spread haze pollution across Southeast Asia.
Some scientists also think that there is a link between rising global sea temperature and the strength of ENSO cycles. The annual climate statement by the Australian Met Bureau, issued on Jan. 5, noted that sea-surface temperatures in the Australian region last year were the warmest on record, 0.54 C above the 1961 to 1990 average. The last decade was also the warmest on record for sea surface temperatures. The statement added that "very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring."
Echoing the scientific panel advising the United Nations on climate change, the Australian Met Bureau-CSIRO assessment for 2010 said that there was a greater than 90 percent certainty that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have caused most of the global warming since the mid-20th century.
If those who believe that man-made global warming gases are intensifying extreme ENSO weather are right, the flood devastation in Australia is a warning that we upset the complex climate system at our own peril.
Michael Richardson is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore.
Link
ScienceDaily (Jan. 18, 2011) %u2014 A new analysis of the Northern Hemisphere's "albedo feedback" over a 30-year period concludes that the region's loss of reflectivity due to snow and sea ice decline is more than double what state-of-the-art climate models estimate.
The findings are important, researchers say, because they suggest that Arctic warming amplified by the loss of reflectivity could be even more significant than previously thought.
The study was published online this week in Nature Geoscience. It was funded primarily by the National Science Foundation, with data also culled from projects funded by NASA, the Department of Energy and others.
During the 30-year study period, cryosphere cooling declined by 0.45 watts per meter squared. The authors attribute that decline equally to loss of snow and sea ice.
Local scientists pool knowledge in science journal article
By Jonathan Grass | JUNEAU EMPIRE
By Jonathan Grass | JUNEAU EMPIRE
Three local scientists merged their studies to provide a look at how the changing arctic environment can affect species through hybridization. Their work led to a commentary article published last month in Nature, an international science journal.
The lead author on the article, titled “The Arctic Melting Pot,” was Brendan Kelly, who was working at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Mammal Laboratory. The other authors are David Tallmon of the University of Alaska Southeast’s biology and marine biology faculty and Andrew Whiteley of the Department of Environmental Conservation at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Whiteley worked with Tallmon on post-graduate studies at UAS when they began efforts in this study. The research leading to the article took a couple years to complete.
Their article examines how climate changes can be influential for species to cross-breed, creating hybrids for offspring. Such hybrids have been evident in arctic bears, whales, porpoises, seals and other mammals. They found that large losses of sea ice removed continent-sized barriers against interbreeding. The article describes how this can sometimes create new species, but is most often harmful to the populations for the existing ones.
“Our research should serve as a cautionary note. We don't know how Arctic ice loss will affect species, but the evidence suggests hybridization may be an additional threat to Arctic lineages that scientists and policymakers should consider. Up to this point, no one seems to have considered this threat,” Tallmon said in an e-mail.
The article states hybridization can result from several factors, both natural and human-caused, that affect environments over time. Tallmon said habitat change is the most important factor in hybridization.
“What we did was look at all of this and see if it reflects the environmental change,” said Kelly. “Hybridization is particularly inclined during environmental changes.”
Kelly, who just left Juneau to become the deputy director of the Division of Arctic Sciences at the National Science Foundation, said the danger is that declining species that interbreed can die out. He gave an example of how polar bears in Alaska are in low density and can be inclined to mate with grizzlies as sea ice loss can encourage them to spend more time on the coast.
“Hybridization is a threat for those species that are reduced in number and come into contact with closely related, more common species. Essentially, the more numerous species can absorb a less common one by breeding with it until the less common one is gone,” Tallmon said. “There are more subtle things that can happen along the way, but the outcome is that diversity is lost because an evolutionary lineage that has evolved independently over time along a given trajectory is absorbed by another lineage.”
Besides losing species diversity, he said hybrids can result in decreased genetic fitness, which can be less obvious. This is because a hybrid is not naturally adapted to both of its parents’ environments.
The authors found social and ecological behaviors can be affected as well.
However, they state that hybridization is not always a bad thing, as it can lead to new species or evolutionary novelties, thus increasing diversity.
Kelly said it’s more common when species of different population sizes interbreed for the lower population to die out.
“If their density becomes low, their probability to hybridization can increase,” he said.
Kelly and Tallmon said a number of species in Alaska show evidence of interbreeding, such as polar and grizzly bears or spotted and ribbon seals. Kelly said that crosses of Dall’s porpoises and harbor porpoises in British Columbia are the only kind he’s found around Southeast.
Tallmon said they looked through extensive scientific literature and museum collections for hybridization examples while studying the genetic compositions of Artcic mammals to see if hybrids were possible.
“We found 28 examples where hybridization might occur if formerly disjunct lineages are brought into contact by sea ice loss,” he said.
Kelly said tissue samples that confirm hybrid DNA can be rare.
Kelly said views on hybridization can often come from how much one values species diversity. He said this can be an important issue for subsistence hunters.
The authors recommend researchers combine models of sea ice loss, oceanography and landscape sciences to help predict where hybridization is more likely to occur and monitor at-risk species’ genetics. They conclude that national and tribal governments should work together to do such monitoring and hybrid prevention.
“One thing we wanted to do was get people to think about this. What we were trying to do is raise awareness in this article, and we should make some decisions,” Kelly said.
• Contact reporter Jonathan Grass at 523-2276 or jonathan.grass@juneauempire.com.
Before some complain of the Greenland item, look up the DNA taken out of ice cores that show bugs, flora and fauna in the mud. Then perhaps you might want to check on the fossilized remnants of tree's on Greenlands Northern Coast, just to check the ~!
Interesting this site seemingly prohibits embedding the video. LOL!!! Have Fun!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl4Pz1mwBao
The new YouTube embed code uses the HTML IFRAME element, which many sites--including this one--disallow for security reasons. You can select the "Use old embed code" checkbox on YouTube when getting that code...
January 19, 2011
Author:
Toni Johnson, Senior Staff Writer
The flooding in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia that began in early January has been called one of the country's worst natural disasters and is expected to continue into next week. The flood may wash away any hopes the country had for achieving a budget surplus in 2012-2013. Clean-up is so far estimated at more than $20 billion, with the government footing as much as 75 percent of reconstruction costs (Telegraph). Rebuilding also could test the country's already tight labor market (WSJ). "Before the global financial crisis, there was almost daily news about projects having to be deferred due to lack of staff," said Peter Taylor with the industry group Engineers Australia. "You can expect some of that again."
According to Australian economist Saul Eslake, the country is likely to see other economic consequences (SydneyMorningHerald), including the loss of an estimated $6 billion production income, mostly from the agriculture and mining sectors. The region exports nearly two-thirds of the world's coking coal, but about 60 percent of coal mines have closed due to flooding. Global coking coal prices rose 55 percent in past week (FT).
Wait a second. The big pyramids at Giza are made of concrete. It predates the Romans.
LOL
Kinda reminds one of the "SWAT" teams heading out to the GOM Rigs for Duty after the DWH incident last Summer..
SWAT
SOIL WATER & Air Testing.
RUSH and Hannity both blew dat un too.
If you say no lag, you have to ignore the deep ocean and the storage of heat that goes on there.
Emphasize that gradual. Can't really comprehend a time scale of billions of years, can you?
Must be a local singularity issue !
No don't post that singularity thing again, I have not slept since :)
Dave
Thats why you Lose color,,specially reds and Greens and yellows past 60-80ft depth.
The Thermocline that Hurricanes Feed and draw energy from is only 2-300 feet deep.
Below 1000ft,,its damn cold at depth too
Im back writing that thing again,,and its coming along.
Im scaring myself.
Climate change study had 'significant error': experts
Of course, many news sources are still running it:
"The forecast is based on UN figures about climate change released in 2007, and projects the impact of temperature changes that will leave the planet at least 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.3 Fahrenheit) warmer by 2020.
While there are more recent analyses that make slight allowances for how the Earth may adjust itself, researchers used the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, combined with "the business-as-usual path the world is currently following," said lead author Liliana Hisas."
Gee, I think those folks were somehow misled by the IPCC....take from it what you will.
I see it argued from both ends.
a) Since the sun is getting hotter causing the earth to warm, CO2 is not really the problem and we do not have to decrease emissions.
b) Since the sun is getting cooler, warming caused by CO2 is not going to be a problem any time soon and we do not have to decrease emissions.
Is he the one on Oprah?
Actually, since we are talking about the diameter of the Sun, then we are talking about half of that. The radius would only be increased by 1 inch thus placing Earth 1 inch closer to the Sun as opposed to two inches closer to the Sun. Is this not correct?
If has a 11 year Cycle,,that with Obs,thru 3 Decades show no relation to the Co2 Induced trend of Rising Global Temps.
Gnite All....
Duh,,,do tell.
Really,,expound on it at length then.
This Deep Ocean "Thing".
I guess the IR radiates the most in Transfer to depth.
WASHINGTON (AFP) – A climate change study that projected a 2.4 degree Celsius increase in temperature and massive worldwide food shortages in the next decade was seriously flawed, scientists said Wednesday.
The study was posted on the website of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and was written about by numerous international news agencies, including AFP.
But AAAS later retracted the study as experts cited numerous errors in its approach.
"A reporter with The Guardian alerted us yesterday to concerns about the news release submitted by Hoffman & Hoffman public relations," said AAAS spokeswoman Ginger Pinholster in an email to AFP.
"We immediately contacted a climate change expert, who confirmed that the information raised many questions in his mind, too. We swiftly removed the news release from our Web site and contacted the submitting organization."
Scientist Osvaldo Canziani, who was part of the 2007 Nobel Prize winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was listed as the scientific advisor to the report.
The IPCC, whose figures were cited as the basis for the study's projections, and Al Gore jointly won the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2007 "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change," the prize committee said at the time.
Canziani's spokesman said Tuesday he was ill and was unavailable for interviews.
The study cited the UN group's figures for its projections, combined with "the business-as-usual path the world is currently following," said lead author Liliana Hisas of the Universal Ecological Fund (UEF), a non-profit group headquartered in Argentina.
But climate scientist Rey Weymann told AFP that the "study contains a significant error in that it confuses 'equilibrium' temperature rise with 'transient temperature rise.'"
He also noted that study author Hisas was told of the problems in advance of the report's release.
"The author of the study was told by several of us about this error but she said it was too late to change it," said Weymann.
Scientist Scott Mandia forwarded to AFP an email he said he sent to Hisas ahead of publication explaining why her figures did not add up, and noting that it would take "quite a few decades" to reach a warming level of 2.4 degrees Celsius.
"Even if we assume the higher end of the current warming rate, we should only be 0.2C warmer by 2020 than today," Mandia wrote.
"To get to +2.4C the current trend would have to immediately increase almost ten-fold."
Mandia described the mishap as an "honest and common mistake," but said the matter would certainly give fuel to skeptics of humans' role in climate change.
"More alarmism," said Mandia. "Don't get me wrong. We are headed to 2.4, it is just not going to happen in 2020."
Many people do not understand the cumulative effect of carbon emissions and how they impact climate change, Mandia said.
"This is something that people don't appreciate. We tied a record in 2010 (for temperature records) globally. That is primarily from the C02 we put in the atmosphere in the 70s and early 80s, and we have been ramping up since then," he said.
"So it is not good. We are seeing the response from a mistake we were making 20 years ago, and we are making bigger mistakes today."
The public relations firm that issued the report on the UEF's behalf said the group stands by the study and would issue a statement to that effect.
Cool.
I'd expound, but really, shouldn't be necessary.
Yeah,,..it aint.
You have the degree.
I have a Dog.
So a study was issued...errors were discovered...the study's authors were notified...the study was immediately retracted...and apologies were made.
How, again, is that worthy of a "Hahahaha!"?
""A reporter with The Guardian alerted us yesterday to concerns about the news release submitted by Hoffman & Hoffman public relations," said AAAS spokeswoman Ginger Pinholster in an email to AFP. "We immediately contacted a climate change expert, who confirmed that the information raised many questions in his mind, too. We swiftly removed the news release from our website and contacted the submitting organization."
Sounds like solid science to me...unlike the debunked lies that have been appearing on denialist sites for months or even years.
..And shorter of Breath,and one day closer to Death
HuH! yep its comin to a thermometer near you soon :)
Thats how Science works last I checked.
Or maybe its a College Boy try at getting over the Loss by Texas Aggies to the LSU Tigers in da Cotton Bowl.
Its MY "working theory" Nea..
From windows2universe.org
"90 % of the total volume of ocean is found below the thermocline in the deep ocean. The deep ocean is not well mixed. The deep ocean is made up of horizontal layers of equal density. Much of this deep ocean water is between 0-3 degrees Celsius (32-37.5 degrees Fahrenheit)! It's really, really cold down there!"
Many people do not understand the cumulative effect of carbon emissions and how they impact climate change, Mandia said.
"This is something that people don't appreciate. We tied a record in 2010 (for temperature records) globally. That is primarily from the C02 we put in the atmosphere in the 70s and early 80s, and we have been ramping up since then," he said.
"based on UN figures about climate change ...
...will leave the planet at least 2.4 degrees Celsius warmer by 2020."
Is definitely worth a hahahaha. You guys don't find that so far off as to be funny?
low blow! lol
We tied a record in 2010 (for temperature records) globally. That is primarily from the C02 we put in the atmosphere in the 70s and early 80s, and we have been ramping up since then.
Its a Working Theory now atmo,...Im not gonna Publish tonight.
LOL
Thank God Almighty!!!! I won't despise you anymore.
That has to be the most relevant Pink Floyd qoute I've ever seen.
Perhaps you should derive an inference from the graph posted with respect to 2007 and now ?
Hi PSL!
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