Nor'easter poised to dump heavy snows; Australian tropical cyclone season heats up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:31 PM GMT on January 26, 2011

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A developing low pressure system along the North Carolina coast will intensify today and move northeast towards Cape Cod, Massachusetts, bringing heavy rain and snow to the mid-Atlantic and New England. A swath of 6 - 10" of snow is expected over inland regions of New England, from Philadelphia to Boston. A storm surge of up to 2.5' is expected along the Massachusetts coast, which will cause mostly minor coastal flooding, but considerable erosion damage.

The 1.9" of snow that fell in Hartford, Connecticut yesterday brought that city's January snowfall total to 44.9", a new record for the month. With an additional 6 - 10 inches expected today, Hartford will surpass its record for snowiest month of all-time, the 45.3" that fell in December 1945.

The storm brought heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches to much of the Southeast yesterday, easing that region's La Niña-related drought. The low swept a cold front across Florida last night, bringing severe thunderstorms with damaging winds gusts of up to 75 mph to twenty locations in the state. One tornado was reported, but no significant damage was reported.


Figure 1. The cold front from today's Nor'easter swept across Florida last night, bringing a line of severe thunderstorms that spawned one tornado and numerous reports of damaging winds.

Tropical Cyclone activity heats up near Australia
The year's first Category 4 tropical cyclone is Tropical Cyclone Wilma, which is churning the waters near Tonga in the Southern Hemisphere with sustained winds of 135 mph (minimum Category 4 strength.) Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm. Substantial damage has been reported on Tonga, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma is recurving out to sea, and will not affect Australia.

Australia is keeping an eye on Tropical Cylone Bianca, which is expected to skirt the northwest coast of the country over the next few days. Of much greater concern for Australia are two potential tropical cyclones that could hit the flood-ravaged state of Queensland next week. Both the European Center and GFS models predict that the remains of Tropical Cyclone Anthony will regenerate into a tropical storm late this week and hit Queensland early next week. A second and potentially more powerful storm is forecast to form next week in the islands to the east of Australia, and threaten Queensland at the end of the week. This is potentially terrible news for Australia, which is attempting to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Wilma, the globe's first major tropical cyclone of 2011, as seen at 01:45 GMT on January 26. 2011 by NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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266. kwgirl
6:26 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Aussie..Parts of Australia getting hammered with severe weather. And it looks like there will be more of it. I hope nature will give all of you a break soon...This could be a big storm for the U.S...Link
That looks like it could be another Groundhog day storm for Florida.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
265. hydrus
3:23 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
Xyrus2000 is from Maryland?.DMV in the house!!!!
You might like this...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22609
264. Neapolitan
3:22 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13799
263. washingtonian115
3:03 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
Xyrus2000 is from Maryland?.DMV in the house!!!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17809
262. washingtonian115
3:01 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
All D.C public schools are closed.A huge tree branch has snapped in my front yard!!.And I didn't put the exclaimation marks for excitment,but for shock/surprise.Now we're going to have to get someone to cut it.That tree however is old.it's about 105+ years old.Some cars on the beltway are still abandon,and in the city.D.C and surrounding areas weren't prepard for this snow to come down the way it did.It came down fast and heavy.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17809
261. hydrus
2:49 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting Xyrus2000:


If you were in eastern Maryland, it was thundersnow.
Good morning Xyrus..Did you see this.?...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22609
260. Skyepony (Mod)
2:47 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting bappit:

Good info. Thanks for the post!


Really that Onion spoof~ good info? lol My favorite parts was the NWS dude declaring it a cat 5, F4, and Level 7 redemptive act of God.. 15' of snow in TN & the second landfall on FL to wipe out the 4 remaining cities..

Here's the link in case anyone needs a good morning laugh. I think it referred to that storm that near 1/2 circled the globe & was partially blamed for el Nino being so strong. I want to say it started with a T, guy name?..2008, out of the WPAC..diving me crazy, can't remember it's name.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39373
259. hydrus
2:47 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:
Evening all. Here is the RADAR from Learmouth WA showing TC Bianca. 75km(120Mile) Eye atm.
Hello Aussie..Parts of Australia getting hammered with severe weather. And it looks like there will be more of it. I hope nature will give all of you a break soon...This could be a big storm for the U.S...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22609
258. Orcasystems
2:15 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
Complete Update





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
257. txag91met
1:57 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Gig em.

I'm a dinosaur and working with an Aggie right now too (petroleum engineering, although natural gas related).

Yea he was my professor at A&M.
Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 751
256. Sergej7
1:43 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
Tokyo Climate Center - The annual anomaly of the global average surface temperature in 2010 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.36°C (preliminary value) above normal (based on 1971-2000 average), and was the 2nd warmest since 1891.
Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)
1st. 1998(+0.37°C), 2nd. 2010(+0.36°C), 3rd. 2005(+0.32°C), 4th. 2009,2006,2003,2002(+0.31°C)

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html
Link

Member Since: March 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
255. kwgirl
1:42 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
Good Morning. I'm here and I see I missed the party as well. Beautiful cool, sunny day in the Keys. Got some rain yesterday with the front moving through, but nothing like the storm Central Fla. had. This sure has been a wet winter for the Keys. I have to find some time to mow the grass. Though I shouldn't complain, it has been a month since I did it last. It is a weekly chore in the summer.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
254. AussieStorm
1:39 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
Evening all. Here is the RADAR from Learmouth WA showing TC Bianca. 75km(120Mile) Eye atm.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
253. aquak9
12:46 PM GMT on January 27, 2011
wow...where's dayshift?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 177 Comments: 26639
252. greentortuloni
9:30 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting aspectre:
Forget Armageddon, this is SERIOUS

Floodwaters turning Aussies into glow-in-the-dark mutant Smurfs


I remember the summer I spent teaching diving in Roatan. I lived next to Spooky Channel, at night we'd go out on the dock and look down and see bioluminescence, look up and see shooting stars and heat lightning. The heat lightning (whatever the real cause) used to occur when the sky was so clear you can see the milky way and you wouldn't think there were any clouds, then from one side of hte sky to the other, the sparks would start and suddenly all these enormous clouds would be visible. I don't know if the bioluminescence included the string-of-pearls glows, but we dove a lot at night and it was something else spectacular.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
251. SWFLgazer
9:18 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
I never thought I'd ever agree with Michael, but thundersnow in the Midwest is at least a once a year phenomena. I grew up in Southern Indiana. It may not be normal, but it is far from unheard of.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 448
250. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:18 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
18:00 PM FST January 27 2011
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (1004 hPa) located at 13.8S 179.2E is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly increased in the last 12 hours. Convection has been persistent in the past 24 hour with low level circulation center difficult to locate. System lies along a surface trough and under an upper level diffluent region in a low to moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly move it southwestward with some intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
249. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:31 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER ANTHONY (11U)
5:00 PM EST January 27 2011
=========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low, Former Anthony (998 hPa) located 17.4S 154.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony may redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next 6 to 18 hours.hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
248. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:31 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #27
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (12U)
3:00 PM WST January 27 2011
=======================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category Three (962 hPa) located at 20.2S 114.0E, or 195 kilometres north of Exmouth and 235 kilometres west northwest of Mardie has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24hrs

Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying during Thursday and Friday morning, but staying within the Category 3 range.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period between Mardie to Exmouth this afternoon and evening, and between Exmouth and Coral Bay Friday morning.

If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible near Exmouth on the NW Cape this evening.

Heavy rain is possible in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Exmouth today. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected. Strong, squally winds and heavy rain are still possible between Wallal and Mardie during today.

Tides will be higher than normal near Exmouth and Onslow, but flooding of low-lying coastal areas is not expected.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Mardie to Coral Bay.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.6S 111.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 24.1S 109.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 29.5S 108.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 32.4S 112.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Data T is 4.5 based on a VIS banding eye. Assigning a trend of D+ gives a MET of 5.0, however an adjustment was made to the MET, and the Pattern T number is 4.5. The FT is based on the Pattern T number and DT, giving FT=4.5.

CIMSS shear figures have about 20 knots [at 27/0600UTC] over the system. Ocean heat content is high along the forecast track over the next 24 hours. Hence further intensification is forecast. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in beneath the mid level trough.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca will be at 9:00 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
247. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:30 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma
19:00 PM NZDT January 27 2011
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma (950 hPa) located at 26.1S 172.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving aouth southwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
220 NM from the center in southeast semi-circle
100 NM from the center in northwest semi-circle

Next Tropical Cyclone Bulletin from TCWC Wellington will be issued at 12:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46909
246. Xyrus2000
6:39 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I was out in the snowstorm and saw random flashes of light, I think it was transformers blowing but could it have been lightning?


If you were in eastern Maryland, it was thundersnow.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1655
245. EnergyMoron
5:45 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting cornchucker:
Thunder and lightning again! Heavy snow with about 8 inches on the ground. We are going to break a foot!


2004 Christmas Eve

Heck, I've driven in 18" going to play bridge a long time ago... in Texas.

When it was colder and we got teens instead of whimpy 20's.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
244. EnergyMoron
5:42 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I know N-G too. He was one of my professors last year and I'll occasionally visit him in his office.


Gig em.

I'm a dinosaur and working with an Aggie right now too (petroleum engineering, although natural gas related).
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
243. cornchucker
5:41 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Thunder and lightning again! Heavy snow with about 8 inches on the ground. We are going to break a foot!
Member Since: August 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
242. caneswatch
5:35 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Good night, folks. I need to recharge. Thanks for the fun!





Night PSL! I guess I will post one more then i'm off for the night.

Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
241. PSLFLCaneVet
5:33 AM GMT on January 27, 2011


Good night, folks. I need to recharge. Thanks for the fun!



Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
240. PSLFLCaneVet
5:21 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting cornchucker:
And beautiful tropical cyclone Wilma!




Beautiful to look at from a distance, quite different to experience, firsthand.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
239. PSLFLCaneVet
5:20 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


I posted this the other night LOL, but it's a personal favorite, so it stays.



I hear ya. One of mine, also.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
238. cornchucker
5:17 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
And beautiful tropical cyclone Wilma!
Member Since: August 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
237. caneswatch
5:15 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I posted this the other night LOL, but it's a personal favorite, so it stays.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
236. cornchucker
5:15 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I was out in the snowstorm and saw random flashes of light, I think it was transformers blowing but could it have been lightning?


I was out in the storm in nyc....could hear thunder and see lightning about one hour ago. Pretty cool.
Member Since: August 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
235. 1900hurricane
5:14 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Well, although I have asked the question on the Chronicle blog on this to n-g....

Ask him about the Dessler paper!

I know N-G too. He was one of my professors last year and I'll occasionally visit him in his office.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
234. PSLFLCaneVet
5:13 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
233. EnergyMoron
5:12 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Gerald North is one of my professors this semester. I actually had his class earlier today.


Well, although I have asked the question on the Chronicle blog on this to n-g....

Ask him about the Dessler paper!
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
232. PSLFLCaneVet
5:12 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting caneswatch:


Awesome song!



Thank you!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
231. PSLFLCaneVet
5:10 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting geepy86:

Do you ever sleep?



ROTFL, Mayhap, I have Android power supplies.



Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
230. 1900hurricane
5:10 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting EnergyMoron:
Where Texan scientists stand...

Skeptical, yes...

Deniers... heck no

Gerald North is one of my professors this semester. I actually had his class earlier today.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
229. caneswatch
5:09 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
5 am is coming soon. Not sure how many tunes are left in my bank, for tonight.







Awesome song!
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
228. geepy86
5:03 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Good stuff, folks!

Do you ever sleep?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1704
227. PSLFLCaneVet
5:01 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Good stuff, folks!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
226. EnergyMoron
5:01 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Where Texan scientists stand...

Skeptical, yes...

Deniers... heck no
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
225. PSLFLCaneVet
5:00 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
5 am is coming soon. Not sure how many tunes are left in my bank, for tonight.





Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
224. caneswatch
4:56 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
223. PSLFLCaneVet
4:53 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting geepy86:

Aww your so sweet.




Thank you!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
222. geepy86
4:50 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1704
221. geepy86
4:48 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



You're always invited, Hon.

Aww your so sweet.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1704
220. PSLFLCaneVet
4:47 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting geepy86:
Party! What party? Was I invited?



You're always invited, Hon.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
219. PSLFLCaneVet
4:46 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
It being good.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
218. geepy86
4:46 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Party! What party? Was I invited?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1704
217. caneswatch
4:45 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
LOL, canes. How it be?


It be alright, how it be with you?
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
216. PSLFLCaneVet
4:44 AM GMT on January 27, 2011
LOL, canes. How it be?
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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