Potentially historic winter storm poised to impact 100 million Americans
A huge and potentially historic winter storm is taking shape over the Southern Plains today. By the time the storm exits New England on Wednesday night, as many as 50 million Americans may see heavy snows of at least 6 inches or dangerous ice accumulations of 1/4" or more from the massive storm, and 100 million will be affected by the storm. A potent jet stream with strong winds will dive southwards over the central U.S. today, allowing a cold Arctic airmass to spill southwards out of Canada. In front of this cold air, a flow of very warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northwards, providing copious moisture to fuel snowfall amounts that will likely approach two feet across portions of Iowa and Illinois on Tuesday. The storm could be Chicago's biggest blizzard since January 1999, when a storm dumped 21.6" of snow. Accompanying the heavy snow on Tuesday will be strong winds gusting to 40 mph in Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana, and a blizzard watch is posted for Chicago. Strong winds in Chicago are expected to generate 14 - 18 feet waves on Lake Michigan, with occasional waves up to 25 feet. A significant coastal flooding event is possible for Chicago, with beach erosion and flooding along Lake Shore Drive. Many major cities will likely receive over 8 inches of snow from the storm, including Kansas City, St. Louis, and Detroit. Perhaps of greater concern is the potential for a major ice storm along a swath from Northwest Oklahoma to Massachusetts. Widespread freezing rain is expected to bring over 1/4" of ice to many major cities, including St. Louis, Indianapolis, Columbus, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. Some regions could see up to an inch of ice, and widespread power outages due to toppled power lines are likely for millions of people. Damages exceeding $1 billions are possible from this ice storm. In addition, the storm's powerful cold front will bring the potential for severe thunderstorms to the deep South. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center is giving Louisiana and surrounding states a "slight risk" of severe weather on Tuesday, and severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are likely Tuesday afternoon in this region.
Figure 1. Probability of receiving at least 1/4" of ice for the 24 hours ending at 7am EST on Wed Feb 2, 2011. Image credit: NOAA.
Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Yasi headed for Australia's flooded Queensland
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here, and the waters surrounding Australia have been exceptionally active over the past week. We had the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones last week, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma brushed New Zealand, bringing flooding and landslides to the North Island, and was the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca skirted the west coast of Australia and dissipated before making landfall. Tropical Cyclone Anthony hit flood-ravaged Queensland, Australia, over the weekend, as a weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds. Fortunately, Anthony dropped only modest amounts of rain, and no new flooding disaster occurred in Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.
Queensland is in serious danger of renewed extreme flooding this week from Tropical Cyclone Yasi. Yasi has intensified to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, and is undergoing a period of rapid intensification that is expected to take it to Category 4 strength. Yasi is expected to hit Queensland on Wednesday, probably as a major Category 3 or stronger storm. In addition the storm's damaging winds and storm surge, Yasi will bring torrential rains. The GFS model is predicting that Yasi will dump 5 - 10 inches of rain over a large swath of Queensland, which would likely cause destructive flooding.
One positive note: the European Center model was remarkably accurate predicting the formation of Yasi over a week in advance, so Queensland has had plenty of time to prepare for the arrival of the storm.
Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 23:20 GMT on January 30, 2011. At the time, Yasi was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Starting off your sentence about a climate trend with "Since 2002" immediately makes it drop to near the bottom of the pile in regards to actual value. It would take a very strong trend to create statistical significance at that short a duration. There is a reason why climate normals are based on 30-year periods.
..... -.-
I was refuting his claim that global temp was rising despite the recent drop in solar activity (since 2008...).
The trend since 2002 against the long-term means nothing yet unless it continues through this decade.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center
The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center
Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?
Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
A significant coastal flooding event is possible for Chicago, with beach erosion and flooding along Lake Shore Drive
what, no levees?
No levees in Chicago and most of the lakefront is landfill. I have seen gigantic waves breaking over Lake Shore Drive, and it is definitely scary. Glad I live in FL now.
But global temperatures are still rising. The long term trend has not changed even with 2002-2010 data added to the set. The solar factor has been stable if not decreasing for longer than 2 years, more like 25-35 years. Then we had the warmest year on record at a solar minimum not seen for at least 100 years.
The natural cycles are weighing towards colder, the solar activity is weighing towards colder, yet the trend remains upward.
With which part do you disagree? That solar activity is at a minimum? That the planet isn't warming? That solar radiative forcing plays only a bit part in overall warming? All of the above are scientific fact, as has been pointed out here with great frequency--probably too great for some people. ;-) And as has been done many times before , there are numerous graphs and charts that can be posted to show that temps continue to climb, whether from a far-too-short baseline of 2002 to now, or one from 2000, or 1990, or 1980, or 1970...
You stated:
The sun has only started decreasing its activity (it has been at a modern maximum since 1950) since 2007-2008 when solar cycle #24 started doing weird things. Your statement is untrue because the globe is in fact not warming or cooling for the last 10 years or so. Again, nobody jump on me about long-term trends. I don't care. For this post, I'm responding to Nea's claim that the globe is warming despite lower solar activity, which is not true at this time.
If Greenland was named after Eric the Red, why isn't it called Redland?
LOL
Prove me wrong instead of hiding behind insults.
Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.
Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.
by bob
Perhaps you could extend that graph to include the 2000-2010 period, which is the interval of interest?
This was some really neat archaeological finds about the vikings, medieval ages & Greenland. Turns out grapes weren't grown there but imported, like their clothing fashions. Fascinating how they held on to their farming & eating livestock ways even as the worst of environments came on as the climate cooled. They housed with the cows for warmth. Layering waste instead of using local resources to dress warm enough to venture out in winter. They were even eating fresh births to make it to spring in the end. Filth & indoor farming instead of embracing the environment & living off it.. like ice fishing to survive like the Inuit. Hope it's not a clue as to how people behave in a changing climate.
Patrap...I'm not doubting your opinion....But just "Whom" is so sure that the "blue line" would have actually happened..? Kinda like my favorite quote when someone says to me "they said".Whom is exactly THEY
But global temperatures HAVE risen since 2008. Though you can't look at a 2-year trend and say, that's climate!
From 2002-2008, global temperatures declined
From 2001-2009, global temperatures increased
From 2000-2010, global temperatures increased
From 1999-2008, global temperatures increased
From 2005-2008, global temperatures declined
From 1998-2008, global temperatures declined
From 2000-2010, global temperatures increased
Welcome to the world of selective data picking. We compare two cherry-picked dots and extrapolate the line over 100 years to tailor-suit your needs.
Note: INSTRUMENTAL data only.
It certainly doesn't follow the ocean cycles very well does it, and the oceans are the biggest natural driver we know of besides the sun itself, which hasn't changed much since 1950.
Yeah so here's climate stats 101:
You don't use 1-2 year periods because of ENSO cycles which make the global temperature go naturally up and down. We just had an El Nino in 2009-201 and are now in an equally strong La Nina.
10-year periods are great for a sense of the recent overall trend. There is nothing sneaky about that. The current decadal trend is flat.
The current centennial trend is positive.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The period 2002-2011 is a good indicator right now as the period 2002-2007 had no major ENSO episodes, and thus is free from that kind of noise that can distort the trends. The recent ENSO cycle of 2009-2011 is currently pushing the 10-year trend upwards, but the current La Nina is in the process of rapidly equalizing that effect, making the current decadal trend nicely representative of what the globe is doing independently from ENSO at this time.
Don't forget that it all depends on WHICH decadal trend you use. 1998-2008 is a temperature decline, while 2000-2010 is a temperature increase. Also, ENSO cycles only take excess atmospheric heat into the ocean, storing it and then releasing it back into the atmosphere in a given lag time, so the oceans do not drive the climate, but the climate-ocean system is a cycle driving itself, and can be "nudged" by factors such as anthropogenic GHG emissions, and then come the positive/negative feedbacks etc.
It's all about ENSO. Pick a start point in 1999 at the bottom of a La Nina and you get a positive trend. Pick a high point of an El Nino and you may get a negative trend. I used a neutral starting point after the major ENSO cycle of 1997-2001.
"The period 2002-2011 is a good indicator right now as the period 2002-2007 had no major ENSO episodes, and thus is free from that kind of noise that can distort the trends. The recent ENSO cycle of 2009-2011 is currently pushing the 10-year trend upwards, but the current La Nina is in the process of rapidly equalizing that effect, making the current decadal trend nicely representative of what the globe is doing independently from ENSO at this time."
The Warming continues unabated by forcing's were ALL Guilty of.
Fill er up,sir?
Ethyl or premium?
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
138 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA...
.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...RESULTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR EAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW.
AT THIS TIME...NORTH AND NORTHWEST CENTRAL INDIANA...INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF KOKOMO AND LAFAYETTE LOOK TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT
A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. HOWEVER SNOWFALL MAY BE HEAVY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TERRE HAUTE...
INDIANAPOLIS...BLOOMINGTON...NEW CASTLE AND MUNCIE...WARM AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AND PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH
ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE INCH OR MORE. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.
A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL INDIANA MAY RECEIVE LARGE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONG WINDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. LONG DURATION
POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MANY PEOPLE IN CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE PRECISE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK IN LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. STAY
ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM.
Link
Feel free to send your Question to the NOAA office.
They will reply in kind.
NOAA
As a winter snowstorm dumped more snow on to the Sea of Japan
coastline, local authorities closed sections of major roads and highways
in Fukui prefecture.
The fresh snowfall pushed the snow accumulation to 64 centimetres in
Kanazawa and to 118 centimetres in Fukui, surpassing 100 centimetres for
the first time in 25 years, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.
http://www.earthtimes.org/ articles/ news/ 365069,transport-1200-cars-stuck.html
We're as prepared as we can be here I guess. Food, kerosene, lighting, board games and plenty of water, and so forth. I've been following this chance since Thursday, and had warned as many as possible in advance. 2005's storm was bad, this looks worse!
West Conus Water Vapor Loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html
BUT....It is still an opinion, or maybe I should say "An educated guess" It is not written in stone. But everyone is entitled to an opinion, and everyone is entitled to dispute that opinion.(Unless it is from JFLORIDA) whom I do not listen to or respect his opinion......Just my opinion. Thank you
it is not just the ice itself either... there is going to be a lot of wind too.. I would say if you get to half inch you likely will begin to have power failures
Don't get me started on Egypt.It will bring out my strongest point of view about the male "SILVERBACKS" Nuff said
?
The Age of Reason Dawns.
Sorry NRAamy...Something just struck my female ego
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