Potentially historic winter storm poised to impact 100 million Americans

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:16 PM GMT on January 31, 2011

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A huge and potentially historic winter storm is taking shape over the Southern Plains today. By the time the storm exits New England on Wednesday night, as many as 50 million Americans may see heavy snows of at least 6 inches or dangerous ice accumulations of 1/4" or more from the massive storm, and 100 million will be affected by the storm. A potent jet stream with strong winds will dive southwards over the central U.S. today, allowing a cold Arctic airmass to spill southwards out of Canada. In front of this cold air, a flow of very warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northwards, providing copious moisture to fuel snowfall amounts that will likely approach two feet across portions of Iowa and Illinois on Tuesday. The storm could be Chicago's biggest blizzard since January 1999, when a storm dumped 21.6" of snow. Accompanying the heavy snow on Tuesday will be strong winds gusting to 40 mph in Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana, and a blizzard watch is posted for Chicago. Strong winds in Chicago are expected to generate 14 - 18 feet waves on Lake Michigan, with occasional waves up to 25 feet. A significant coastal flooding event is possible for Chicago, with beach erosion and flooding along Lake Shore Drive. Many major cities will likely receive over 8 inches of snow from the storm, including Kansas City, St. Louis, and Detroit. Perhaps of greater concern is the potential for a major ice storm along a swath from Northwest Oklahoma to Massachusetts. Widespread freezing rain is expected to bring over 1/4" of ice to many major cities, including St. Louis, Indianapolis, Columbus, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. Some regions could see up to an inch of ice, and widespread power outages due to toppled power lines are likely for millions of people. Damages exceeding $1 billions are possible from this ice storm. In addition, the storm's powerful cold front will bring the potential for severe thunderstorms to the deep South. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center is giving Louisiana and surrounding states a "slight risk" of severe weather on Tuesday, and severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are likely Tuesday afternoon in this region.


Figure 1. Probability of receiving at least 1/4" of ice for the 24 hours ending at 7am EST on Wed Feb 2, 2011. Image credit: NOAA.

Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Yasi headed for Australia's flooded Queensland
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here, and the waters surrounding Australia have been exceptionally active over the past week. We had the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones last week, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma brushed New Zealand, bringing flooding and landslides to the North Island, and was the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca skirted the west coast of Australia and dissipated before making landfall. Tropical Cyclone Anthony hit flood-ravaged Queensland, Australia, over the weekend, as a weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds. Fortunately, Anthony dropped only modest amounts of rain, and no new flooding disaster occurred in Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.

Queensland is in serious danger of renewed extreme flooding this week from Tropical Cyclone Yasi. Yasi has intensified to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, and is undergoing a period of rapid intensification that is expected to take it to Category 4 strength. Yasi is expected to hit Queensland on Wednesday, probably as a major Category 3 or stronger storm. In addition the storm's damaging winds and storm surge, Yasi will bring torrential rains. The GFS model is predicting that Yasi will dump 5 - 10 inches of rain over a large swath of Queensland, which would likely cause destructive flooding.

One positive note: the European Center model was remarkably accurate predicting the formation of Yasi over a week in advance, so Queensland has had plenty of time to prepare for the arrival of the storm.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 23:20 GMT on January 30, 2011. At the time, Yasi was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Evening all...
Still baking hot here in Sydney. Currently @ 00:30 02/02/2011 33.5C with 26% Humidity.
The wind is starting to pick up at Willis Island. Highest wind reading so far are 41kts gusting to 47kts. I'm guessing that was from the 1st squall line that past at 21:52. Current 10mins wind is 35kts gusting to 47kts with 1001.3hPa
The next squall line will pass within the next hour, and wouldn't be surprised if its stronger.
Here is a time line that updates by Local news paper.
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522. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E TX...NRN/CNTRL LA...WCNTRL MS...SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011246Z - 011445Z

STRONG PV-ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO E TX/SRN OK AT DAYBREAK. INTENSE
LARGE-SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN AN INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE OVER FAR E TX. 12Z SHV
SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH
ABOUT AN 800 METER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...RECENT
STRENGTHENING OF STORMS AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. MEANWHILE...E OF THE LINE...E-W
ORIENTED WARM ADVECTION DERIVED BANDS OF STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER SRN AR AND NRN LA. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WERE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL
PRODUCTION WITH THESE STORMS.

IF STORMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE/INTENSIFY...PARTICULARLY THE SQUALL
LINE...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
.

..RACY.. 02/01/2011
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
521. Jax82
You can see in the precipitable water loop the feed of moisture coming from the GOM.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning.

Looks like Ole Man Winter's got his game face on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
517. Jax82
I can imagine some heavy snow out there.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
516. Jax82
4 inches an hour, amazing.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
318 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTH TO
THE WISCONSIN STATE LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAY COME IN A COUPLE OF WAVES...WITH THE FIRST
WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND WAVE OF INTENSE SNOW LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ACCUMULATION
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF
10 TO 18 INCHES IS LIKELY TOWARD ROCKFORD AND DIXON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN
THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE 12 TO
20 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2
FEET POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 MPH BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY TONIGHT. EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH.

* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...THE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH BLOWING AND
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY FALLING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR
ZERO AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED SNOW PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY VERY INTENSE
SNOWFALL RATES. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE SNOWFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN THUNDERSNOW MAKING TRAVEL NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE.

* TRAVEL...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SNOW DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TREACHEROUS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS BY EARLY EVENING AS WINDS
INCREASE RESULTING IN WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
BE SO INTENSE AT TIMES THAT ROAD CREWS WILL BE UNABLE TO KEEP
EVEN PRIMARY ROADS AND HIGHWAYS CLEARED. UNNECESSARY TRAVEL
SHOULD BE AVOIDED AT ALL COSTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MORE THAN HALF OF THE FATALITIES IN PREVIOUS
ILLINOIS BLIZZARDS HAVE OCCURRED AS A RESULT OF TRAFFIC
ACCIDENTS. BEFORE MAKING THE DECISION TO TRAVEL...CONSIDER IF
GETTING TO YOUR DESTINATION IS WORTH PUTTING YOUR LIFE AT RISK.

* POWER OUTAGES...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY WET SNOW STICKING TO POWERLINES COULD RESULT
IN POWER OUTAGES. DUE TO THE PROLONGED NATURE OF VERY ADVERSE
CONDITIONS...PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A PROLONGED
DISRUPTION IN COMMERCIAL POWER.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE SHOVELING
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY. DURING AND
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE BLIZZARD OF 1999 OVER 40 PEOPLE IN THE
CHICAGO AREA ALONE LOST THEIR LIVES TO HEART ATTACKS WHILE
SHOVELING THE HEAVY SNOWFALL. IF YOU MUST SHOVEL THE SNOW...TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS INDOORS AND DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE TASK AT
HAND.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
Morning all. Albuquerque foothills have 3-4 inches of snow on the ground and more on the way, but the big story here is the predictions of the coldest temperatures in 50 years for some parts of the state of NM. Albuquerque seems to go below zero about every 20 years lately-January 1971 being the classic with a week of historic lows including -17, the all-time record for the city. Christmas 1990 gave us 3 days of below zero nighttime temps down to -7. The prediction is for -2 to -6 for Albuquerque for Wed. night. Being in February is also very unusual for a storm this strong and cold. After a warm 3/4 of December, we had a very cold January, but it did moderate the second half of the month. Now Feb is off to a very unusual extremely cold start. Highs will be 30-40 degrees below normal.
Where is spring?????

Quoting IKE:
When you see the blue(zero degree line), south of the Florida panhandle...out into the GOM...that's cold..as cold as I've seen it all winter....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
514. IKE
02/01/2011 0633 am

3 miles WSW of Humble, Harris County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m0.00 mph, reported by ASOS.


            Bush Intercontinental Airport reported wind gust of 46
            knots or 53 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
513. IKE

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Statement as of 6:33 AM CST on February 01, 2011


The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Brazoria County in southeast Texas...
Chambers County in southeast Texas...
Fort Bend County in southeast Texas...
Galveston County in southeast Texas...
Harris County in southeast Texas...
southeastern Jackson County in southeast Texas...
Liberty County in southeast Texas...
Matagorda County in southeast Texas...
eastern Montgomery County in southeast Texas...
Polk County in southeast Texas...
San Jacinto County in southeast Texas...
eastern Trinity County in southeast Texas...
southeastern Walker County in southeast Texas...
southeastern Wharton County in southeast Texas...

* until 730 am CST

* at 628 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
line of severe thunderstorms. These storms were located along a
line extending from 10 miles south of Corrigan to Palacios... moving
east northeast at 50 mph. These storms have a history of producing
wind damage.

* Locations in the Severe Thunderstorm Warning include but are not
limited to Tiki Island... the medical center... splashtown... Smith
Point... Sargent... Rollover Pass... reliant park... Port Bolivar...
Moody Gardens... minute maid Park... Lake Livingston State Park...
Kemah boardwalk... Johnson space center... Hooks Airport... hobby
Airport... La Marque... Kingwood... Kemah... Katy... Jones
Creek... Jersey Village... Jacinto City... Hunters Creek
Village... Humble... Houston... Holiday Lakes... Hitchcock...
Highlands... Hedwig Village... Galena Park... Friendswood... Fresno...
Freeport... First Colony... El Lago... Dickinson... Deer
Park... Dayton... Danbury... Daisetta... Cut and Shoot... Crosby...
Conroe... Clute... Cloverleaf... Cleveland... Clear Lake
Shores... Channelview... Bunker Hill Village... Brookside
Village... Brazoria... Boling-Iago... Bellaire... Baytown... Bayou
Vista... Bay City... Barrett... Bacliff... Angleton... Anahuac... Ames...
Alvin and Aldine.

Please report severe weather to the County sheriff... local police...
or department of public safety and ask them to relay your report to
the National Weather Service.

Lat... Lon 2936 9478 2937 9479 2953 9451 2954 9480
      2978 9474 2970 9496 2910 9514 2934 9473
      2933 9473 2850 9617 2852 9620 2860 9599
      2875 9646 3131 9494 3104 9461 3048 9472
      2957 9436
Member Since: Posts: Comments:










Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
613 am CST Tuesday Feb 1 2011







Short term...very active difficult forecast in store for the
region. Severe weather still looks probable for today while winter
weather concerns are starting to increase for our extreme NE which
does include the Baton Rouge metropolitan. Fog...winds...and marine
concerns are also abundant in the first 36 hours of the forecast.


The major player for todays weather which will bring US our severe and
be an historic...yes historic winter storm...for the plains and middle
MS valley is really wrapping up impressively in Texas right now. Surface low
is deepening quickly with slope down to 1002mb near crp at 10z. WV/infrared
satellite image shows a nice baroclinic Leaf developing over the
plains.


For today and tonight...not much has changed in the thinking and
severe weather is still probable today although widespread severe
weather is not anticipated. Things will get going very quickly
beginning around midday. The main system is swinging through the Southern
Plains right now and will become negatively titled as it moves into
the Lower/Middle MS valley. The surface low will deepen and move to the NE
through the lower MS valley. The surface low appears to be trending a
tad further south and this will translate into stronger surface winds
over the land and thus we have issued a wind advection for the entire County Warning Area
for this afternoon. As the surface low moves into northern MS/eastern Arkansas it will drive
a cold front through la and should be on the doorstep of our County Warning Area
right around 18z. This is going to be a very progressive system that
will drive the cold front completely through the County Warning Area during the afternoon
and should be well into the Gulf by sunrise Wednesday morning. There will
be rain showers and thunderstorms and rain ahead of the front some severe but more on that later.
As soon as the front moves through much colder air will quickly move
in behind it with temperatures likely falling between 25 to 40 degrees from
highs today and lows tomorrow morning. Lows will fall below freezing
for much of the County Warning Area north of the I 10/12 corridor and in the extreme
northwest lows could fall into the lower 20s for a few hours so a hard
freeze warning has been issued for the extreme northwest. In addition we
may have to look at a wind chill advection for some areas tonight.


As for strong/severe risk...there is concern that the risk may be
increasing for all of the region now and not just the northwest. Dewpoints
have risen dramatically in the Gulf with 65-68 readings over much of
the northern Gulf and even a few 70 dewpoints further out in the Gulf. If
those dewpoints can move inland then the likelihood of the marine
layer inhibiting severe weather will be far less. To keep from getting
into all of the details I will try to keep this short part
short...instability is still the main issue today with showalters
near -3 and MLCAPE up to 500 j/kg. The synoptic pattern is still
very favorable...and dynamically things are quite impressive. The
kinematic field is off the chart with helicity values well above what
is needed. The winds veer all the way from the surface to 700 mb so Mode is
not much of an issue. If convection fires ahead of the front then
the tornado risk will increase but if convection remains mostly
confined to right ahead of the front then damaging straight line
winds will be the primary concern but tornadoes are still possible.
Heavy rain is still an issue as abundant moisture is in place.


Wednesday will be quiet but cold and blustery as winds from the northwest to north
possibly gusts to near 25 miles per hour. Highs may remain near 40 in the far
north and with these winds it will feel much colder. With highs not
climbing much and h925 temperatures remaining below freezing for the northern
3rd/half of the County Warning Area it could set the stage for winter weather Thursday
and Friday.


Long term...the main concern in the extended is the threat of
winter weather possibly as early as Thursday morning and remaining in play
through Friday night. The models are in general agreement but there is
enough differences in the details that cause major problems with
what we could see in the northwestern 3rd/quarter of the County Warning Area. The GFS is the
least impressive from a winter weather standpoint while the 00z NAM
had a full blown ice storm for mcb and btr. The European model (ecmwf) was right in
the model hinting at a better chance of winter weather in the far northwest
than the GFS. The sref was in more agreement with the NAM and European model (ecmwf)
and the Canadian appears to be more inline with the 00z as well with
possible ice storm. First off we will say confidence is low but it
is increasing that we will see some type winter precipitation in the far northwest.


Thursday through Friday night...this is the big problem area in the
forecast. Cold air will already in place in the ll and at the surface
but as a surface low develops in the Gulf 850 mb temperatures will begin to warm.
We will still be entrenched in SW flow carrying Pacific moisture. The
elongated l/west trough will start to finally push east late Thursday
keeping the area under broad lift over the entire region Thursday through
Friday. Precipitation looks to return to the region as early as Thursday morning.
The problem we have is north of a line from Baton Rouge to Mount
Herman. Dewpoints will be well below freezing and h925 temperatures look to
range from -4 to 0. Snow does not look likely as the forecast soundings show
a rather thick warm layer(about 3-6k feet think) with temperatures as high as
3c just above h9. This would suggest partial melting if not complete
melting before moving back in the cold air. Further now into southwestern MS
the warm layer is not quiet as thick so partial melting may be the
main player there. With wet bulbing taking place and dewpoints not
forecast to get out of the 20s and h925 temperatures expected to remain
below freezing after the cold front today through 12/15z Friday there
is a very good chance we will see sleet and even possibly freezing
rain. I believe the models are well overestimating the surface temperature with
the amount of precipitation they are trying to develop and dewpoints in the
20s. This is still 3-4 days away so we will be watching this very
close. An Special Weather Statement should be issued later this morning/today and we could
end up needing some type of winter weather watch Wednesday for the far
NE.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Wind Advisory, Dense Fog Advisory

Statement as of 5:05 AM CST on February 01, 2011

... Dense fog advisory remains in effect until 9 am CST this
morning...

... Wind Advisory in effect from noon today to 6 PM CST this
evening...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect from noon today to 6 PM CST this
evening. A dense fog advisory remains in effect until 9 am CST
this morning.

Areas of dense fog will prevail across coastal areas of southern
Mississippi and southeast Louisiana and adjacent bodies of waters
through mid morning. Visibilities should begin to improve as the
deepening surface low in Texas will increase winds across the
area by early this afternoon. Winds will be increasing throughout
the afternoon to 20 to 25 mph with gusts to near 35 mph. Winds
will be especially strong near the coast and across elevated spans
over bodies of water.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to less than one quarter mile. If driving... slow down...
use your low beam headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead
of you.

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Quoting aquak9:


no wonder you ran away from home.
the character might be running back this summer when a cat 3 or 4 is bearing down on the south florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
508. IKE
When you see the blue(zero degree line), south of the Florida panhandle...out into the GOM...that's cold..as cold as I've seen it all winter....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ike I looked at my long range, errr well OUR long range. Precip I can agree with, possiblity of thunderstorms, winds, I can agree with...even temps in the upper thirties where you are.

But I don't see another hard freeze event.

But I can't see the streetlights this morning, either, hahaha
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
506. IKE
Super Bowl weather now....

Dallas Love, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 22 min 35 sec ago







Light Thunderstorms and Snow

27 °F
Light Thunderstorm Snow Ice Pellets
Mist



Windchill:
10 °F

Humidity:
80%

Dew Point:
21 °F

Wind:
31 mph
from the NW




Wind Gust:
40 mph

Pressure:
29.92 in (Steady)

Visibility:
2.0 miles

UV:
0 out of 16

Pollen:
6.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!

Clouds:

Scattered Clouds 800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1300 ft
Overcast 1900 ft
(Above Ground Level)

Elevation:
486 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
505. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
hi ike!! :)

55º here, fogged in like being surrouneded by cotton candy. The street light are but a glow, fuzzy eyesight and surreal...

will we be spared the next cold snap? I think we will.
Looks like the one next week(in about 8 days), may not miss us. Unbelievable winter.

Here's my forecast for later this week....

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. North wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 45. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 41.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rossclick:
I now live in SFL, but this is what my parents can expect over the next few days back in Indiana


no wonder you ran away from home.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
hi ike!! :)

55º here, fogged in like being surrouneded by cotton candy. The street light are but a glow, fuzzy eyesight and surreal...

will we be spared the next cold snap? I think we will.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
501. IKE
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
358 AM EST TUE FEB 01 2011

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011 - 12Z TUE FEB 08 2011

AN AMPLIFIED ERN PAC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM E-CNTRL CANADA/CNTRL
CONUS MEAN TROF CONFIGURATION IS FCST TO CONTINUE THRU THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN THERE WILL BE TWO
PRIMARY SYSTEMS OF INTEREST. THE FIRST WILL BE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NEWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EAST COAST FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND... INFLUENCED BY A COMBINATION OF ENERGY EJECTING
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND SOME NRN STREAM FLOW. THEN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD... UPSTREAM ENERGY REINFORCING THE MEAN
NOAM TROF WILL PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE PLAINS INTO
THE ERN STATES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW MEANINGFUL SPREAD WITH
BOTH FEATURES.

WITH THE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE EAST COAST THE
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FORM A
LOOSE CLUSTER THAT ARGUES AGAINST THE DEEPER AND FASTER 00Z GFS
SCENARIO. GFS RUNS OVER MULTIPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN ON THE FAST EDGE
OF GUIDANCE FROM THE SHORT RANGE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. WHILE
THERE HAS BEEN SOME TRENDING AWAY FROM SLOWER SOLNS IN THE SHORT
RANGE... BIASES CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING CLOSER TO THE NON-GFS
CONSENSUS.

THE GFS LIKEWISE LEANS TO THE FAST EDGE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AND IS
THUS CONSIDERED A LOWER PROBABILITY OPTION. IN ADDITION TO TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW MUCH SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FROM THE MS VALLEY NEWD THRU THE GRTLKS INTO
SERN CANADA DURING DAYS 6-7 MON-TUE. GFS RUNS HAVE VARIED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST DAY WITH THE 00Z GFS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE 00Z ECMWF HAS ADJUSTED
WEAKER FROM PREVIOUS TWO RUNS THAT DEVELOPED VERY DEEP LOWS. NOT
SURPRISINGLY GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUFFICIENTLY DIVERSE TO
YIELD FAIRLY WEAK SOLNS IN THEIR MEANS. PREFER TO FOLLOW A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN LIGHT OF
GUIDANCE SPREAD/CONTINUITY CHANGES AT SUCH A DISTANT TIME FRAME.

BASED ON THE ABOVE ASSESSMENT THE DAYS 3-7 FCST STARTS WITH A
50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z GEFS MEAN/00Z
ECMWF. THIS SOLN EMPHASIZES THE MOST AGREEABLE ASPECTS OF THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND ACCOUNTS FOR THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARING
SOMEWHAT BETTER TO CONSENSUS THAN THE GFS. 00Z ECMWF WEIGHTING IS
LIMITED DUE TO ITS SLOWER TIMING OF THE NRN PLAINS-GRTLKS TROF
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND PREFERENCE TO LEAN AWAY
FROM ANY SPECIFIC OPERATIONAL SOLN LATER IN THE FCST.

RAUSCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
500. IKE
Wow! Look at the trough for next week...in about 8 days....another blast of winter!

6Z GFS @ 192 hours...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
499. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
morning Nea(lifts cuppa)
hi ike

looks like dallas is already getting frozen precip
I worry for my northern friends
the beginning of a long few days
Hey!

54.9 at my location this morning...outside.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning Nea(lifts cuppa)
hi ike

looks like dallas is already getting frozen precip
I worry for my northern friends
the beginning of a long few days
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
A momentary digression: here's another quick story about fracking, a topic discussed here a few days ago. The procedure is supported by some, reviled by others. I'm in the latter camp. Here's why:

Drillers used diesel in 'fracking,' report says

"Oil and gas companies have injected more than 32 million gallons of fluids containing diesel fuel underground without first getting government approval... The investigation found that 12 of 14 companies hired to perform hydraulic fracturing, also known as "fracking," used diesel alone or in a mixture during the five-year period. A 2005 law exempted all chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing except diesel fuel from federal regulations aimed at protecting drinking water."

More...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
As Yasi moves in on Queensland, here at home we're looking at 119 days, 13 hours, and some odd minutes until hurricane season 2011 gets officially underway.

For the month of January, there were 668 record daily high temperatures (469 new, 199 tied) and 646 record daily lows (459, 187). There were 16 days with more record highs than lows, and 15 with more record lows than highs, so all in all the month was pretty evenly matched. And, while we'll have to wait for the January climate report to come out in mid-February to be sure, it's a fair bet to say that January wasn't "the coldest January since 1985", as some had predicted.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Re: all the posts about electric cars and snow storms...

I understand about batteries losing charge in cold weather... I doubt they lose all their charge or the car companies wouldn't sell many electric cars in cold areas. Not that I know anything about that though.

However, a great product idea that would save you in the event of a blizzard in an electric car: thermal blankets for electric cars (not for the whole car, just for the people inside). If you are stuck in a blizzard, crawl inside your little electric sleeping bag and stay most toastie. A little well insulated electric blanket could keep you warm for weeks probably.

I am sure there is some solution for gas powered cars as well. maybe some sort of little stove that could circulate hot fluids from the stove to the balnket somehow.
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491. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI (14U)
5:00 PM EST February 1 2011
=========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category Three (960 hPa) located 14.4S 154.9E, or 1020 km east northeast of Cairns and 1020 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 18 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
250 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
230 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
160 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS

YASI IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO NORTH QUEENSLAND COMMUNITIES

The Cyclone is expected to slowly intensify overnight and continue moving in a west-southwesterly direction.

DAMAGING winds with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on the islands during Wednesday morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further inland across the northern tropical interior overnight.

Between Cooktown and Townsville these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in excess of 125km/hr late Wednesday afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts above 170 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the cyclone approaches.

As the centre approaches the coast sea levels between Cairns and Townsville will rise significantly above the normal tide with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low lying areas near the shoreline.

Flooding rains will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during Wednesday afternoon and then extend inland overnight.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Melville to Sarina extending inland to Georgetown and west of Charters Towers.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Lockhart River to Cape Melville and for the northern tropical interior.

The Cyclone WATCH from Sarina to Yeppoon has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.4S 151.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 16.5S 147.8E - 105 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 19.0S 141.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 21.3S 136.5E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Following a period of intensification overnight, Yasi has maintained intensity in the past 6-12 hours. The environment of low shear and good upper level outflow, assisted by an upper low to the south, is conducive for development, however the system is passing over an area of reduced ocean heat content which may be hindering intensification.

Dvorak intensity based on eye pattern [EIR B surround, LG/B elongated eye; VIS 1degree embedded distance but ragged subtraction] both giving DT=5.0, consistent with adjusted MET. Mean winds estimated at 85 knots [top end CI=5.0] supported by SATCON [95 knots 1min mean] as CIMMS AMSU estimates are higher than ADT.

Further intensification can be expected with low shear, upper outflow environment persisting until landfall. How much influence the ocean heat content has on the intensification process remains a factor of uncertainty.

Forecast motion is steady to the west southwest with a persisting mid-level ridge to the south. Models are quite consistent with the forecast motion.

The combined factors of being intense, large, and motion at 18 knots are conducive for greater wave/swell generation to the south of of the forecast track.

With the expectation of being a large and intense system, cyclone intensity may
be maintained further inland than normal.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi will be issued at 9:00 AM UTC..
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Quoting RecordSeason:


This color scheme picks up the forming eye pretty well. At this rate it should have full presentation in a few more hours.

Keep in mind this is 10 degree increments.

Even at a few hours old, the latest microwave pass is supportive of your thoughts:

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488. Skyepony (Mod)
Yeah really starting to fill in that SW side..Yasi is out of hand. Size wise, reminds me of Floyd. Found one with Lat lines to gauge size.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38146
487. Skyepony (Mod)
A state Game and Fish Commission official says more dead drum fish - but far fewer than the number reported in a previous fish kill - have been found in the Arkansas River near the lock and dam at Ozark, in the same area where thousands of dead fish were found a month earlier. A news release Monday from the wildlife agency said a fish kill spotted Friday involved only about 500 fish, compared with 83,000 in a fish kill reported Dec. 29. G&FC assistant fisheries chief Chris Racey said that, as with the previous fish kill, the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff will test sample fish. Testing on fish from the Dec. 29 kill did not determine a cause, but ruled out parasites, disease or toxic chemicals.

Day before yesterday it was a fish kill in CO.

There was also a bunch or Peacock over a large area in India..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38146
484. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Grothar:




I don't know what Australia did to make Yasi angry, but Yasi is really angry.
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It's kicking in.
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Evening all.



Yasi is big enough to cover the entire state of Queensland.... The area between Mackay and Townsville looks to get slammed...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Quoting Xyrus2000:


May be a hoax. One of the videos has some odd parallax issues and the other video looks like it may have been tracked on top of some footage. Do a search for the video with the word "hoax" added on and you can see for yourself.

Some other things going against this video is that it happened at the Dome of the Rock. THE Dome of the Rock. Israel has crazy security and cameras covering every inch of that part of town, including skyline cameras. And yet, all there is are these videos?

And a clearly visible probe landing in the middle of a populous city on an alien world? Would an alien civilization capable of sending an interstellar probe really allow that probe to be seen given that if the world happened to be inhabited, space-faring, and hostile that they could track it's origins and destroy them? And would they really need to send a probe down so low to get good information? Given the level of technology for interstellar travel, they could easily just remain in orbit and gather information of much higher resolution than even a human walking around on the surface could.

It might not be a hoax. It could very well be an alien probe checking us out. But I tend to give advanced civilizations the benefit of the doubt and assume they wouldn't let us know they were out their unless they wanted us to know.


I agree. People need to think things through a little more, any aliens capable of interstellar race are gonna be pretty dang intelligent. Landing a space probe on Earth in a busy area makes no sense. It would make sense for them to land in say, the middle of nowhere in upper Canada or Alaska, where they can easily slip through detection.


There was a case where an extremely bright light slowly moved about 3 mi away approximately from my house, the craft I couldn't make out because it was emitting a massively bright yellow light and it was also 1 AM, which made it also harder to estimate how far away it was. I was just falling asleep when this happened, and what woke me up was the noise, a sound so disturbing it scared me more then I could ever recall. A which I cannot repeat and don't ever wanna hear again. This was at my home in a semi-rural suburb of Clearwater, FL.

This is 100% all true. I don't do drugs of any kind, have never been on prescription drugs either. I am a healthy and athletic 20 year old male. That being said. I certainly didn't have some experience where my brain and eyes fooled me.

Also, I am a hunter, an outdoorsman, and just all around there's not a lot that can make me scared. I personally have always been skeptical that aliens have been visiting earth in our time. But after that experience I have to say, it was far from human, that's all I know.


In a Universe that is as big as it is, I don't see why there couldn't be aliens, its somewhat ignorant to assume there aren't. Its just its hard to know if what you here and see is real, because unfortunately people love to make up stories and make hoaxes. I don't know why, personally, I don't get a kick out of telling people something that never happened. Its just boring and stupid.


Whatever the case, alien stories have gotten my attention a lot more since that event last summer.
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Yasi is large...like Igor size.....geezzz
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.