Potentially historic winter storm poised to impact 100 million Americans
A huge and potentially historic winter storm is taking shape over the Southern Plains today. By the time the storm exits New England on Wednesday night, as many as 50 million Americans may see heavy snows of at least 6 inches or dangerous ice accumulations of 1/4" or more from the massive storm, and 100 million will be affected by the storm. A potent jet stream with strong winds will dive southwards over the central U.S. today, allowing a cold Arctic airmass to spill southwards out of Canada. In front of this cold air, a flow of very warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northwards, providing copious moisture to fuel snowfall amounts that will likely approach two feet across portions of Iowa and Illinois on Tuesday. The storm could be Chicago's biggest blizzard since January 1999, when a storm dumped 21.6" of snow. Accompanying the heavy snow on Tuesday will be strong winds gusting to 40 mph in Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana, and a blizzard watch is posted for Chicago. Strong winds in Chicago are expected to generate 14 - 18 feet waves on Lake Michigan, with occasional waves up to 25 feet. A significant coastal flooding event is possible for Chicago, with beach erosion and flooding along Lake Shore Drive. Many major cities will likely receive over 8 inches of snow from the storm, including Kansas City, St. Louis, and Detroit. Perhaps of greater concern is the potential for a major ice storm along a swath from Northwest Oklahoma to Massachusetts. Widespread freezing rain is expected to bring over 1/4" of ice to many major cities, including St. Louis, Indianapolis, Columbus, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. Some regions could see up to an inch of ice, and widespread power outages due to toppled power lines are likely for millions of people. Damages exceeding $1 billions are possible from this ice storm. In addition, the storm's powerful cold front will bring the potential for severe thunderstorms to the deep South. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center is giving Louisiana and surrounding states a "slight risk" of severe weather on Tuesday, and severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are likely Tuesday afternoon in this region.
Figure 1. Probability of receiving at least 1/4" of ice for the 24 hours ending at 7am EST on Wed Feb 2, 2011. Image credit: NOAA.
Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Yasi headed for Australia's flooded Queensland
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here, and the waters surrounding Australia have been exceptionally active over the past week. We had the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones last week, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma brushed New Zealand, bringing flooding and landslides to the North Island, and was the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca skirted the west coast of Australia and dissipated before making landfall. Tropical Cyclone Anthony hit flood-ravaged Queensland, Australia, over the weekend, as a weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds. Fortunately, Anthony dropped only modest amounts of rain, and no new flooding disaster occurred in Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.
Queensland is in serious danger of renewed extreme flooding this week from Tropical Cyclone Yasi. Yasi has intensified to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, and is undergoing a period of rapid intensification that is expected to take it to Category 4 strength. Yasi is expected to hit Queensland on Wednesday, probably as a major Category 3 or stronger storm. In addition the storm's damaging winds and storm surge, Yasi will bring torrential rains. The GFS model is predicting that Yasi will dump 5 - 10 inches of rain over a large swath of Queensland, which would likely cause destructive flooding.
One positive note: the European Center model was remarkably accurate predicting the formation of Yasi over a week in advance, so Queensland has had plenty of time to prepare for the arrival of the storm.
Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 23:20 GMT on January 30, 2011. At the time, Yasi was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service New Orleans la
548 PM CST Monday Jan 31 2011
Long term...
have introduced a chance of a wintry mix of sleet and freezing
rain across southwest Mississippi and portions of adjacent east
central Louisiana...north of Baton Rouge for late Thursday night
into Friday morning. There is quite a bit of model spread with
regards to the timing...placement...and strength of a potent
shortwave trough and associated surface low that is expected to
move across the Southern Plains...lower Mississippi Valley...and
northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night through Saturday morning.
Even with the low confidence in any given solution...there is
sufficient agreement that there will be cold enough air in place
to support freezing or frozen precipitation Thursday night into
Friday morning across the far northwest portion of the area with
all rain to the southeast. The European model (ecmwf) is slowest with the deeper
upper system that it moves across the lower Mississippi Valley
late Friday night and Saturday morning...yielding precipitation
into Friday night. Have opted to only include liquid precipitation early
Friday night...but that may change later if the European model (ecmwf) solution
becomes consistent and favored.
You can't tell from a satellite picture.
Waiting for the 0 Z NAM, atm.
Yeah, that ice forecast is very bad.
Just pointing out that the atmospheric moisture isn't of the 300% over normal for the season, and more, variety.
Link please.... LOL
ROFLMAO...
Contrary to common belief, Florida is not that humid in the summer. There are places with much higher humidity in the summer. It is rare that our humidity levels go over 95% in the summer.
I wouldn't know. I am not allowed out at night.
that would be a scary sight...
I supposed I guessed wrong.
What? It rains here often in the summer :)
I really didn't think my comment needed a sarcasm flag. Read it again.
Watching too many "Twilight" shows, are we? HA
Thanks, VA. Thought you were one of the nice guys.
LOL, it sure feels like it is over 95% when cutting the grass and that awful trimming. I certainly was not raising the flag. My bad humor strikes again! :)
Not my thing.
dare we hope?
April 2010 was almost a year ago and that quake was in Western Australia, not Queensland. there about 2000miles apart.
Maybe up to 2 feet of it. My stepdad might not go play golf this weekend. (then again, he's done that before)
except when it rains
Looks like you guys are in for some Dread Weather. Snow, Ice, High winds, 20' seas on the Lakes etc etc....
I wonder what all that feels like?
Current conditions here-
Temp 73f
Humidity 88 %
Winds 4 mph easterly.
Clear skies.
No Problem.
Big loop if you have a slow connection, heads up.
Edit: seems the link gets corrupted. Copy and paste the address and use the link that pops up under the address bar.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced 12
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced 12
BTW, check out the circulations at the bottom of the planet.
Just have to keep people aware, you know?
heheheh
That happens sometimes. Don't worry, someone will be along to fix that soon enough.
Did the cops have to tell you you're scaring too much people at night? ROFL
I'm tempted!
But it's too nice an evening....
No, smart aleck! It's just too many people stare and say they didn't know people could live that old. You happy now??? How you doing canes.??
Play nice, now! We got a lot of interesting weather to talk about. Aussie is back. Have you seen any images of the cyclone?
I can beat that......
and i can beat that 1 too... this is in Sydney
I aint wearing any clothes, to hot for clothes here.
BTW, I hope people in the midwest take the ice threat seriously
Too much information, Aussie. Might give a new meaning to your term "Outback"
Alright, enjoying watching the Cavaliers getting smacked up by the Heat. How are you?
Outback. lol. nobody wants go near my outback. hahahahahahaha
Ornery. What do you think of that cyclone near Australia? Looks like a big one. Go post a map or something. It will be good practice for the upcoming season.
Scary looking to be honest. What kinda map, one that shows how the U.S. is in for a bad year?
On anything. Get some graphics on this storm.
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