Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Mississippi River sets all-time flood records; 2nd major spillway opens
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:06 PM GMT on May 09, 2011 +7
The Mighty Mississippi continues to wreak havoc as the river's highest flood crest in history pushes southwards near Memphis, Tennessee today. The river crested at its highest height on record over the past four days along a 70-mile stretch from New Madrid, Missouri to Tiptonville, Tennessee, to Caruthersville, Missouri, smashing records that had stood since the great flood of 1937. The flood height of 47.6' at Caruthersville, Missouri, on Saturday was a full 1.6 feet above the previous record flood height, set in 1937. However, thanks in part to decision by the Army Corps of Engineers last Monday to intentionally destroy a levee at Birds Point on the west bank of the Mississippi, pressure on the levees along this stretch of river was substantially reduced, potentially preventing multi-billion-dollar levee breaches. Currently, the Mississippi is expected to reach its 2nd highest level on record at Memphis on May 10, cresting at 48.0'. The all-time record at Memphis occurred during the great flood of 1937, when the river hit 48.7'. Downstream from Memphis, flood waters pouring in from the Arkansas River, Yazoo River, and other tributaries are expected to swell the Mississippi high enough to beat the all-time record at Vicksburg, Mississippi by 1.3' on May 19, and smash the all-time record at Natchez, Mississippi by six feet on May 21, and by 3.2 feet at Red River Landing on May 22. Red River Landing is the site of the Old River Control Structure, the Army Corps' massive engineering structure that keeps the Mississippi River from carving a new path to the Gulf of Mexico. I'll have a detailed post talking about the Old River Control Structure later this week. Its failure would be a serious blow to the U.S. economy, and the great Mississippi flood of 2011 will give the Old River Control Structure its most severe test ever. Also of concern is the forecast for the Mississippi to crest at 19.5 feet in New Orleans on May 23. The levees in New Orleans protect the city for a flood of 20.0 feet--that is not much breathing room. Fortunately, rainfall of at most 0.5 inches is expected over the Lower Mississippi River watershed over the next five days, which should prevent flood heights from rising above the current forecast.


Figure 1. Opening of the Bonnet Carre' Spillway on March 17, 1997. The spillway was operational from March 17 to April 18, 1997, operating at a maximum flow of 243,000 cu ft/s (6,900 m3/s). Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.

Bonnet Carre' Spillway opens
Today, the Army Corps of Engineers is setting in motion another key part of their plan to control the great flood of 2011. The Corps is opening the Bonnet Carre' Spillway to divert 250,000 cubic feet per second of water from the Mississippi River into Lake Pontchartrain, some 28 miles upstream from New Orleans. A large crane will traverse a 1.5 mile-long stretch of the Mississippi River and remove large wooden slats that will allow the river to spill northwards into a 6-mile long channel lined by guide levees, to Lake Pontchartrain. The land that will be inundated is uninhabited and is not farmed, unlike the land of the Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway that was inundated by last week's intentional levee breach. The main concern with opening the Bonnet Carre' Spillway is the impact of the Mississippi River's fresh water on the salt water ecosystems of Lake Pontchartrain. This is the 10th time since 1937 that the Bonnet Carre' Spillway has been opened. The Army Corps is considering opening the final spillway they have in reserve, the great Morganza Spillway in Louisiana, late this week. The Army Corps has never opened all three Lower Mississippi River spillways at the same time. The Morganza Spillway has been opened only once, back in 1973.


Figure 2. The last time the Bonnet Carre Spillway was opened was in 2008. The International Space Station captured this image of the muddy brown waters of the Mississippi flooding into Louisiana's Lake Pontchartrain, just upstream from New Orleans. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Good links to follow the flood:
Summary forecast of all crests on Lower Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.
Wundermap for Cairo, IL with USGS River overlay turned on.
National Weather Service "May 2011 Mississippi River Flood" web page

Jeff Masters
Flooding In Tennessee (sunrisejake)
The flood waters of the Obion River and the Mighty Mississippi River has taken over many communities in Northwest Tennessee. This small Community of Bogota in Dyer County is only one of many that is now a disaster area.
Flooding In Tennessee
Mississippi River at Memphis Greenbelt Park Flood at 47.6 ft 6 (Barb)
This is the parking lot to the park that I posted pictures of a few days ago. Now the entire lot is under water.
Mississippi River at Memphis Greenbelt Park Flood at 47.6 ft 6
Categories: Flood
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253. MississippiWx 1:28 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting InconceivableF6:
there is no such thing as being civil.It's called the Internet.


LOL...Probably the most true statement ever on this site.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8507
254. MississippiWx 1:33 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Ok, I hear ya.


Yeah, my ignore list is infinitely long and it still isn't enough during the heart of hurricane season. :-P

But I guess that's just how the ball rolls. I guess the best thing for us as bloggers to do is keep on posting our info and use that ignore feature when we need it.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8507
256. hurristat 1:47 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting MississippiWx:
Gotta love JFV. You know, one of the blog admins just needs to post his information. As in his name, address, etc..Can easily be done through his IP address. After going around ban after ban, admin is totally justified in doing that since he continues to break the rules of this website.


He may be a troll, but I don't think it justifies posting his personal data on the site. What are you going to do, troll back? Make his life horrible? That makes you no better than him.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
257. TampaSpin 1:51 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Lets go Nashville Predators.......!!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
260. EYEStoSEA 2:03 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Evening all....A little excitement there for a blog or 2.....keeps the circulation going at least....
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1490
263. Tazmanian 2:11 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
did the SunshineStateCarnage get lock up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111312
265. EYEStoSEA 2:16 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting Tazmanian:
did the SunshineStateCarnage get lock up


Taz, glad ya got your old name back.....didnt know what to call you before...T&T..just didnt sound right....anyway, lets hope all is good for you now :)
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1490
267. hurristat 2:20 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Taz, glad ya got your old name back.....didnt know what to call you before...T&T..just didnt sound right....anyway, lets hope all is good for you now :)


Taz changed names? /leaves in december and comes back in may
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268. pottery 2:21 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting hydrus:
Pottery iz gettin wet..

Not yet.
Been threatening all day....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703
269. Tygor 2:22 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Like the idea from above about Texas getting some rain. Not a drop of rain in over 4 months in San Antonio, and it's really starting to affect things. Most of us assume a tropical storm is the only way to get rain at this point.
Member Since: May 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
270. Tazmanian 2:24 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Taz, glad ya got your old name back.....didnt know what to call you before...T&T..just didnt sound right....anyway, lets hope all is good for you now :)



it is thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111312
271. EYEStoSEA 2:27 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting Tygor:
Like the idea from above about Texas getting some rain. Not a drop of rain in over 4 months in San Antonio, and it's really starting to affect things. Most of us assume a tropical storm is the only way to get rain at this point.


Believe me....we're all rooting for ya'll dry Texans.....rain, rain, rain come on......
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1490
272. caneswatch 2:29 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Uhh, can someone tell me what happened? Seemed like we had a troll attack.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473
273. EYEStoSEA 2:32 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting pottery:

Not yet.
Been threatening all day....


Hello Pottery, good to see ya. Locals here in Ms seem pretty confident the levees are gonna hold up pretty good.....hoping they're right....now is just wait and see time....
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1490
274. xcool 2:33 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    

WSI: Multiple US Hurricane Landfalls Expected in 2011
Weather Authority Expects Another Active Season with Gulf Coast Under Greatest Threat .......
Outperforming other, primary, public forecasters on named storms by 25% since 2006, WSI (Weather Services International) predicts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). These 2011 forecast numbers are above the long-term (1950-2010) averages of 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes and match the averages from the more active recent period (1995-2010) of 15/8/4. The current forecast is a reduction from the previous forecast made in December for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.

“We have reduced our forecast numbers to ‘active-normal’ levels since the recent North Atlantic weather pattern has resulted in a cooling of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Further, the La Nina event weakened a bit more quickly than we first expected, reducing the possibility of a favorable wind shear environment during the upcoming tropical season,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “We do expect another active season in 2011, although not to the level of 2005 or 2010. However, while we expect less overall activity this year, we do expect a much more impactful season along the US coastline. The US has been spared from any landfalling hurricanes since 2008, and the hurricane drought in 2009 and 2010 is relatively rare in the historical record. In fact, the US has not had a three-year stretch without a hurricane landfall since the 1860s. Further, 80 percent of all years in the historical dataset have had at least one hurricane landfall in the US. Our recent good fortune in avoiding landfalling hurricanes is not likely to last.”

Crawford also indicated that the Gulf Coast was under a significant threat for hurricane landfall in the upcoming season.

“The lack of US landfalls in 2010 was primarily due to a persistent western Atlantic trough that essentially protected the US East Coast from any direct hits. We do not expect this feature to be in place this year during late summer and fall when most tropical storms occur. Further, the Gulf and Caribbean sea surface temperatures are particularly warm this year, and we expect more development in these regions and less in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Storms developing in the Gulf and Caribbean are a much greater threat to make landfall along the US coast than those that develop off the coast of Africa. For this reason, and since our hurricane landfall prediction model suggests sharply increased chances of US landfall in 2011, especially in the western Gulf states, we expect two or three landfalling hurricanes this season. This is not particularly unusual, since historically 43% of years have had multiple hurricane landfalls. The forecast numbers from our model are quite similar to those prior to the 2008 season, when Hurricanes Dolly, Gustav, and Ike impacted Louisiana and Texas.”

Energy traders, insurance professionals and risk managers look to WSI for accurate, timely weather information around the clock and across the globe. The next seasonal forecast update, which will include forecasts for summer temperatures, will be issued on May 24. The next update for the 2011 tropical season will be released on May 25.

About WSI
WSI (Weather Services International) is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, insurance, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at http://www.wsi.com.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501
275. Chicklit 2:33 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10239
276. seminolesfan 2:34 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting eddy12:
There is no way to ban someone ip ban will not work you can log on from public hotspot or aircrack a wireless connection or use a proxy server
Getting around an IP ban is trivial for anyone with even a small knowledge of networking protocols. I agree with eddy 100% on this. Sometimes, depending on your ISP, it can be as simple as power cycling your modem and you can get a new dynamic IP assigned to you. If you get into MAC spoofing there is another avenue...easy peasy.
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1692
278. ShenValleyFlyFish 2:36 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting caneswatch:
Uhh, can someone tell me what happened? Seemed like we had a troll attack.
Hey it's almost "the season". Everybody's doing their warm up exercises. Spring training you know.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
279. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:46 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
empty space created
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40375
281. HurricaneDean07 2:47 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
so, have we had a 1st tropical wave emerge yet...
don't think we have, and what's the word on pre-season development.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4033
282. Seastep 2:48 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
That low in the N Atlantic sure is pretty. Messing with shipping for sure.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406
283. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:49 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey it's almost "the season". Everybody's doing their warm up exercises. Spring training you know.
EPAC starts in 4 days won't be long now bring it on
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40375
284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:52 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting Seastep:
That low in the N Atlantic sure is pretty. Messing with shipping for sure.
pretty now monster later

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40375
285. caneswatch 2:53 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Nah. It's all good.


I can see that now LOL
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473
286. caneswatch 2:54 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey it's almost "the season". Everybody's doing their warm up exercises. Spring training you know.


Yep, only a few more weeks before "the season." Someone got a hit though LOL
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473
288. hurristat 2:57 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting RIDGES:
Evening everyone. I see preseason has started. We need to have a fantasy league, with full draft, on who gets the most "going crazy" points. Extra points for picking the correct amount of responses to each of the trolls posts.


XD someone needs to organize this.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
289. EYEStoSEA 3:04 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
pretty now monster later



monster later....Keeper, ya want to expound on that a little ?
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1490
290. hurricaneben 3:18 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
so, have we had a 1st tropical wave emerge yet...
don't think we have, and what's the word on pre-season development.
. Possible, probably not until' about 2 weeks from now and the week before season starts.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 330 Comments: 597
291. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:23 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


monster later....Keeper, ya want to expound on that a little ?
when ya see em spin like that later in the hurricane season could very well be a monster barreling down
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40375
292. EYEStoSEA 3:26 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
when ya see em spin like that later in the hurricane season could very well be a monster barreling down



Ahhh, gotcha.....but even now looks a little intimidating..
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1490
293. Bitmap7 3:30 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Are you guys aware that there is a new fire at the Fukishima power plant?

http://leakspinner.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/zk 9fe.jpg

Link

Why is this not on the front page of every single newspaper in the world? Why are official agencies not measuring from many places around the world and reporting on what is going on in terms of contamination every single day since this disaster happened? Radioactivity has been being released now for almost two full months! Even small amounts when released continuously, and in fact especially continuous exposure to small amounts of radioactivity, can cause all kinds of increases in cancers.

One reason no one is reporting on this nor allowed to go inside the exclusion zone nor even measure the waters off of Japan is because of the following compiled by Makiko Segawa, a staff writer at the Shingetsu News Agency. She prepared this report from Fukushima and Tokyo for www.japanfocus.org:

Freelance journalists and foreign media are pursuing the facts, even going into the radiation exclusion zone. However, surprisingly, the Japan government continues to prevent freelance journalists and overseas media from gaining access to official press conferences at the prime minister's house and government

Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
294. KoritheMan 3:33 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
06z GFS forecasts a very favorable upper wind environment across much of the eastern Pacific approximately one week from now (May 16), with a pronounced light easterly shearing regime:



Extrapolation of this forecast, along with continued warming of the equatorial Eastern Pacific, lends credence to the likelihood that such conditions will stick around throughout the month. In short, if any disturbances take advantage of such favorable conditions, we might see our first tropical storm, Adrian, this month.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418
295. hurristat 3:36 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting Bitmap7:

One reason no one is reporting on this nor allowed to go inside the exclusion zone nor even measure the waters off of Japan is because of the following compiled by Makiko Segawa, a staff writer at the Shingetsu News Agency. She prepared this report from Fukushima and Tokyo for www.japanfocus.org:

Freelance journalists and foreign media are pursuing the facts, even going into the radiation exclusion zone. However, surprisingly, the Japan government continues to prevent freelance journalists and overseas media from gaining access to official press conferences at the prime minister's house and government



And this is a bad thing? I don't think that the press should be excluded from the exclusion zone, as it is meant to protect the safety of all citizens, including the press.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
296. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:49 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting cat5hurricane:

What is an IP ban? Do you know what that is exactly. Please explain. I want to learn.


xxx
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40375
297. MrsOsa 3:56 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hello Pottery, good to see ya. Locals here in Ms seem pretty confident the levees are gonna hold up pretty good.....hoping they're right....now is just wait and see time....


What part of MS you from Eyes? I'm from the coast but we're being put on standby to respond to the flooded areas. I know they're saying the levees will hold, but the state at least is preparing for the worst.
Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 84
299. smuldy 4:03 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
so, have we had a 1st tropical wave emerge yet...
don't think we have, and what's the word on pre-season development.
We have already had two tropical waves emerge in the preseason.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 516
300. HadesGodWyvern 4:06 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astrological Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
TROPICAL STORM BEBENG (AERE)
11:00 AM PhST May 10 2011
====================================

Tropical Storm "BEBENG" " continues to move away from the country.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Bebeng (AERE) located at 20.4°N 122.3°E or 50 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Storm Signal #1
==============

Luzon Region
------------
1.Batanes

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

However, the western section of Luzon will still experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers with gradual improvement of weather late today.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36684
301. cchsweatherman 4:06 AM GMT on May 10, 2011    
I see nothing has really changed with this blog. Its a crying shame, I tell ya, that such a respectable blog gets tarnished by continuous drama and immaturity, thus driving some well respected and knowledgeable people away.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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