Invest now to improve tornado warnings; an early start to hurricane season?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on May 27, 2011

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Typhoon Songda.

Typhoon Songda heads for Okinawa and Japan
Typhoon Songda brushed the Philippines yesterday, bringing heavy rains that killed at least two people. Fortunately, the brunt of this year's first Category 5 storm missed the islands, and Songda has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Songda is turning northwards and will threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa. On Sunday,

Invest now for better tornado warnings
National Weather Service forecasters issued a tornado warning 24 minutes in advance of the Joplin, Missouri tornado this.week, which is now being blamed for at least 132 deaths--the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947. However, we can do better, and the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO) put out a press release on May 23, arguing that investments in weather service forecasting technology are needed to reduce loss of life in future violent tornadoes:

"The 24-minute lead time is a great improvement over the average lead time of 13 minutes for tornado warnings. The meteorologists in the Springfield Weather Forecast Office are commended for their lifesaving work," said Dan Sobien, NWSEO President. "But in our age of advanced technology and communication, when new radars and modeling opportunities exist that can provide more lead time to get people out of the path of a storm, hundreds of people do not have to die because of a tornado event."

Sobien says the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes are examples of how the government's neglect to invest in NWS related infrastructure over the last 10 to 15 years has failed to provide the tools necessary to protect lives and property. He says that the tools forecasters use to issue tornado warnings are woefully inadequate and that the technology exists to provide lead times so far in advance of the storm that it would make the need for tornado warnings as we know them obsolete. "The much touted Doppler Weather Radar, also known as the Weather Service Radar or WSR-88D, was developed in 1988. Since that time, technological advances, including phased array radars developed by the Department of Defense, have been shown to increase the current lead time on tornado warnings by almost 50 percent."

"The much touted Warn on Forecast process utilizes Meso-scale modeling and has the potential to let forecasters know hours in advance where a thunderstorm would form and if it is likely to contain strong winds, hail, or even a tornado. With adequate staffing, local National Weather Service forecasters who understand local terrain and the model output, could be embedded with emergency managers and decision makers. In the event of a storm, the forecaster could provide emergency managers with the tornado track with some margin of error and people in the way of the storm could be evacuated hours before the tornado hits. This technology is being developed and tested right now, however without funding it will never be available."

"The art and science of severe weather warnings made considerable progress during the 1980s and 90s, going from almost zero lead time to average of about 13 minutes for tornado warnings. However, in recent years, that progress has stalled, even while the technological advancements have accelerated. If the country made the type of investment in the National Weather Service that it did in the 1980s, scenes like the ones in Missouri this week and in Alabama and Mississippi last month could be a thing of the past."

"I am very proud of my co-workers at the National Weather Service this tornado season. They saved many lives and having been there myself, I can assure you, they feel personally about every lost life," said Sobien. "I know that budgets are tight and there are many priorities, but if you put investing in the National Weather Service up to a vote today in tornado alley, I think the approval would be a landslide."


I wholeheartedly agree with this view--investments in better tornado forecasts and tornado observing technology will potentially give us a huge return in lives saved. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday or Tuesday with a new post.


Jeff Masters

Tornado Power (Betty2)
Sunday, LaCrosse, WI a tornado hit. This is a photo of a 2x4 board that slammed through a tire.. and, freaky, but it left the air in the tire! Photo was taken by my neighbor, Lori Hines, Gays Mills WI.
Tornado Power
25 May, (rdjgonzo)
May 25, 2011 at 7:10pm. Picture taken from Bartlett (Shelby County) TN.
25 May,
What A Storm (llpj04)
What A Storm

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IN ADDITION...
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN AROUND 4 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT SAN
ANDRES
AND THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS
OF 20 KT N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN E OF SAN ANDRES...THEN DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BETWEEN NOW AND THU
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1335. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Actually I would think the real comparison would be to Alex last year

Alex developed from the monsoon trough after 2 tropical waves interacted with it

Remember how long it took to get its act together?


True, but so far I don't think this looks all too similar. For one thing, although the portion of the ITCZ currently lifting into the Caribbean is technically supposed to be the monsoon trough, there is a lack of monsoon southwesterlies that we would expect to see. Alex had a full-blown monsoon trough across the entire Caribbean that had the marks of the western Pacific all over it. This current one looks much more like the lesser Atlantic version that is aided by the subtropical jet early in the season. In other words, Alex was the real deal in terms of monsoonal development. We don't see that very often at all in the Atlantic.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
And into the Gulf = death from high shear.


if it waits until days 8-10 to get into the Gulf, then death from high shear is not as likely
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1333. Bitmap7
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What about this reminds you of Paloma ?


The whole position of it, model tracking and people thinking its going to fiz out before it gets to strengthen (it pull off a rapid intensification). When I saw the cmc model run it just came to me. It also took a while to get anything going as well. The big difference is that it was birthed from a front.



Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
Quoting RitaEvac:
From what I've been hearing, a ridge of high pressure is to develop over the SE next week bringing heat, so to me the disturbance in the Carribbean is gonna go NW in to Gulf or sit and wait it out down there.
kinda it sits in the NW Carib just about right on top of me
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1331. Levi32
I've been waiting for this. The 12z ECMWF ensembles show a significant member spread in the western Caribbean for the first time (pink colors). This means that many of the members are showing development of this tropical disturbance, causing more disagreement between the members on what the sea-level pressures are going to be at a certain time. This is a sign that the ECMWF is becoming much more friendly towards development of the system.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Notice the moisture envelope slowly push northwards as the jet begins its slow lift.

Link
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N77W TO 10N83W ON THE 1200 UTC
SURFACE MAP. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...
PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN AROUND 4 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AT SAN
ANDRES AND THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATED NE TO E WINDS
OF 20 KT N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN E OF SAN ANDRES...THEN DEEPENING
SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BETWEEN NOW AND THU. THIS SHOULD TIGHTEN
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON.
SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY WITH 8 TO
10 FT BY TUE.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Thats primarily the result of the normal Pacific monsoon trough now moving northward into the Western Caribbean.
About time...

@wxnut.... these r some great ideas, some we have bruited about here... however, given the current climate of American politics, such things could only happen if $xx are awarded in tax cuts to the rich.... [still thinking about the comments of certain US political leaders who suggested that Americans should only help their peers in an emergency if rich pple get tax breaks....]
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Quoting RitaEvac:
From what I've been hearing, a ridge of high pressure is to develop over the SE next week bringing heat, so to me the disturbance in the Carribbean is gonna go NW in to Gulf or sit and wait it out down there.
And into the Gulf = death from high shear.
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Actually I would think the real comparison would be to Alex last year

Alex developed from the monsoon trough after 2 tropical waves interacted with it

Remember how long it took to get its act together?
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Quoting Bitmap7:


It reminds me of paloma.
What about this reminds you of Paloma ?
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Quoting Bitmap7:


It reminds me of paloma.


never know it may be another paloma except closer to us and heads to W Cuba not E
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From what I've been hearing, a ridge of high pressure is to develop over the SE next week bringing heat, so to me the disturbance in the Carribbean is gonna go NW in to Gulf or sit and wait it out down there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1322. Bitmap7
Quoting stormpetrol:
Somehow this area is reminding me of Nicole last year, just looking at it that is


It reminds me of paloma.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
1321. Patrap


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Quoting sammywammybamy:




Its not even June 1st and the Models are already Florida Casting....
feels like another Nicole...

All Bark... No Bite.
LOL, speak for yourself.
We had flooding issues here from Nicole to the extent that schools and several businesses had to close.
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1319. Bitmap7
Quoting sammywammybamy:




Its not even June 1st and the Models are already Florida Casting....
feels like another Nicole...

All Bark... No Bite.


I remember being sent home from school for Nicole.
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Already Florida casting I can see in here
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Somehow this area is reminding me of Nicole last year, just looking at it that is
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Quoting Levi32:
An interesting feature to watch as this situation evolves will be the two tropical waves getting closely involved with the monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean during the next few days. The first tropical wave is currently moving into Columbia, and will likely be absorbed northwestward into the broad area of low pressure developing within the monsoon trough. The 2nd tropical wave is just now passing the southern lesser Antilles, and will continue westward, eventually interacting with the low pressure area in the SW Caribbean in about 72 hours, around the time when wind shear will start relaxing due to the retreating subtropical jetstream. This coincidence of a more favorable upper-level pattern developing just as another tropical wave enters the scene may result in a decent step upward in organization of the monsoonal low in the SW Caribbean by Thursday.

I think with this one it will be pretty much like most last year,wait and see.
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Its not even June 1st and the Models are already Florida Casting....
feels like another Nicole...

All Bark... No Bite.
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1314. Levi32
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks the orginal AOI of interest in SW Caribbean has split in 2 to me according to the voticity map?


Refer to the image in post #1313. It's an elongated region of low-level vorticity along an elongated surface trough. Such a setup is typical of a monsoonal disturbance in early-stage development.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
1313. Levi32
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Levi, vorticity diagrams support the circulation is more concentrated at the 850mb level than any other higher level. Nonetheless, I doubt anything comes of this. I think you're right about the decaying convective complex.


If you look at the satellite, though, the spin is now at 15N, while the vort max on CIMSS analysis is down at 12N. They don't match, indicating that they are likely not showing the same feature. There may very well be a vorticity max in the low levels east of Nicaragua, but it wouldn't be due to the mid-level spin we're talking about. That feature is quickly moving on to the northeast and dissipating.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Well this clears everything up. Lol.

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1311. alfabob
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
there is a anicyclone over the caribbean low, and just to give you a heads up(if you like tracking EPAC storms) the GFS and NOGAPS are forecasting a system to form in the EPAC about 2 days after the models form TD 1 in the caribbean.

I saw the other models, that's why I brought up the EPAC because it is a large factor in whether Caribbean develops or not.

Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Levi, vorticity diagrams support the circulation is more concentrated at the 850mb level than any other higher level. Nonetheless, I doubt anything comes of this. I think you're right about the decaying convective complex.
PIC??? can't get to the site, having computer problems...
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Looks the orginal AOI of interest in SW Caribbean has split in 2 to me according to the voticity map?
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1308. Levi32
An interesting feature to watch as this situation evolves will be the two tropical waves getting closely involved with the monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean during the next few days. The first tropical wave is currently moving into Columbia, and will likely be absorbed northwestward into the broad area of low pressure developing within the monsoon trough. The 2nd tropical wave is just now passing the southern lesser Antilles, and will continue westward, eventually interacting with the low pressure area in the SW Caribbean in about 72 hours, around the time when wind shear will start relaxing due to the retreating subtropical jetstream. This coincidence of a more favorable upper-level pattern developing just as another tropical wave enters the scene may result in a decent step upward in organization of the monsoonal low in the SW Caribbean by Thursday.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Quoting NWeatherNut:
Sending great warnings is important, and I'm glad we live in a day and age when we can do that. But if so many people still don't RECEIVE those warnings in a meaningful way and then don't have meaningfully safe shelter after being warned, what good do the warnings do?

I seriously doubt that money spent on more and better radars, computers and software will yield dramatically better warnings than what we have today. 24 minutes warning of an event that you can't ever completely predict is very good and how much further in advance will these investments really allow EFFECTIVE warnings to be given.

I think the money for the next step improving tornado preparedness should go into (a) developing inexpensive in-home, "wired-in" weather/hazard radio/alarms (similar in price, legal requirement and installation to smoke and CO alarms) so that nearly everyone actually RECEIVES a meaningful warning and (b) networks of underground shelter parks and in-building shelters where properly warned people always have a place to get safe shelter.

1) Weather radios aren't expensive, but not everyone has one, and they're not always left on. Wired in radio/alarms, like smoke alarms, would always be ready to receive warnings. Made in large quantities to fulfill a legal requirement for one in every home and public building, they'd be even cheaper.
2) Buildings like "Walmart" and "Home Depot" and any other large public building should be required to have underground shelter sufficient to house their expected max occupancy.
3) Residential Neighborhoods should construct a network of underground shelters with parks on top (nice benefit during the 364+ days the shelters aren't used) where residents without underground shelters can quickly walk to truly safe shelter. Estimates of $5,000 per home to build in-home safe rooms are just too high for most folks. For a reasonable amount, underground shelters that serve several blocks of houses could be built, and nice, small parks located on top as an added plus to the community.

Sending great warnings is great, and I'm glad we live in a day and age when we can do that. But if so many people still don't RECEIVE those warnings and then don't have meaningfully safe shelter after being warned, what good do the warnings do?
Which is why text message notification should be employed during any kind of tornado emergency or any other natural disaster. They can target the specific cell phone tower so anyone in that area gets the notification.
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Quoting Levi32:


Doubtful. They usually dissipate, and are at or above the 500mb level, which makes it hard for them to get to the surface. It's also illogical, since they form from the dissipation of convection, implying that pressures are not trying to lower at that specific location.
Levi,When does an area get a floater?
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Quoting Levi32:


Doubtful. They usually dissipate, and are at or above the 500mb level, which makes it hard for them to get to the surface. It's also illogical, since they form from the dissipation of convection, implying that pressures are not trying to lower at that specific location.
good point, have you posted your tropical tidbit today? won't start posting my blogs again until JUNE 1, or when our first storm forms... not much time before then...
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Quoting Levi32:


Doubtful. They usually dissipate, and are at or above the 500mb level, which makes it hard for them to get to the surface. It's also illogical, since they form from the dissipation of convection, implying that pressures are not trying to lower at that specific location.
Levi, vorticity diagrams support the circulation is more concentrated at the 850mb level than any other higher level. Nonetheless, I doubt anything comes of this. I think you're right about the decaying convective complex.
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Sending great warnings is important, and I'm glad we live in a day and age when we can do that. But if so many people still don't RECEIVE those warnings in a meaningful way and then don't have meaningfully safe shelter after being warned, what good do the warnings do?

I seriously doubt that money spent on more and better radars, computers and software will yield dramatically better warnings than what we have today. 24 minutes warning of an event that you can't ever completely predict is very good and how much further in advance will these investments really allow EFFECTIVE warnings to be given.

I think the money for the next step improving tornado preparedness should go into (a) developing inexpensive in-home, "wired-in" weather/hazard radio/alarms (similar in price, legal requirement and installation to smoke and CO alarms) so that nearly everyone actually RECEIVES a meaningful warning and (b) networks of underground shelter parks and in-building shelters where properly warned people always have a place to get safe shelter.

1) Weather radios aren't expensive, but not everyone has one, and they're not always left on. Wired in radio/alarms, like smoke alarms, would always be ready to receive warnings. Made in large quantities to fulfill a legal requirement for one in every home and public building, they'd be even cheaper.
2) Buildings like "Walmart" and "Home Depot" and any other large public building should be required to have underground shelter sufficient to house their expected max occupancy.
3) Residential Neighborhoods should construct a network of underground shelters with parks on top (nice benefit during the 364+ days the shelters aren't used) where residents without underground shelters can quickly walk to truly safe shelter. Estimates of $5,000 per home to build in-home safe rooms are just too high for most folks. For a reasonable amount, underground shelters that serve several blocks of houses could be built, and nice, small parks located on top as an added plus to the community.

Sending great warnings is great, and I'm glad we live in a day and age when we can do that. But if so many people still don't RECEIVE those warnings and then don't have meaningfully safe shelter after being warned, what good do the warnings do?
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also from the looks of it on the cmc map you have shown, the shear is a good enough distance to help ventilate it, but it will begin to feel the shear shortly after that time period.
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1301. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
levi, is there any way for the mid level Circulation to make it's way to the surface? wondering cause its spinning pretty well.


Doubtful. They usually dissipate, and are at or above the 500mb level, which makes it hard for them to get to the surface. It's also illogical, since they form from the dissipation of convection, implying that pressures are not trying to lower at that specific location.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Levi says it is at mid-level.


I take his word for it, he understands this tropical stuff alot more than I do thats for sure, I was also looking at 12.5N/76.5W that appears like that could be closer to the surface, just my take though
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Quoting alfabob:

CMC is showing the anti-cyclone currently over the EPAC moving into the Caribbean; but shear is still destructive to the north when the model is depicting a strong system. The difference between the models is basically whether the EPAC develops and keeps the anti-cyclone, which would also inhibit the formation of another anti-cyclone to the NE.
there is a anicyclone over the caribbean low, and just to give you a heads up(if you like tracking EPAC storms) the GFS and NOGAPS are forecasting a system to form in the EPAC about 2 days after the models form TD 1 in the caribbean.
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Quoting aspectre:
HurricaneDean07 "Oh MY GOD, the Canadian has gone completely NUTZ!!! forecasting a strong cat.1 or cat.2 going north toward western cuba then S. Florida"

1276 wunderkidcayman "hey what about us? are you forgetting about us it takes the eye right over us?"

I suspect most islanders would welcome having a few lawn chairs being blown about in exchange for having the drought broken.


lol
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Wind shear is currently unfavorable for development in the area:

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Vorticity reflecting a slight spin near CA:

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1295. Bitmap7
Quoting alfabob:

CMC is showing the anti-cyclone currently over the EPAC moving into the Caribbean; but shear is still destructive to the north when the model is depicting a strong system. The difference between the models is basically whether the EPAC develops and keeps the anti-cyclone, which would also inhibit the formation of another anti-cyclone to the NE.


Actually the cmc doesn't bring the system in the shear north of cuba at 144hrs it just stalls it over GCM, so it wouldn't get sheared just yet(perhaps its outer bands to the north though).

Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
levi, is there any way for the mid level Circulation to make it's way to the surface? wondering cause its spinning pretty well.
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Quoting aspectre:
HurricaneDean07 "Oh MY GOD, the Canadian has gone completely NUTZ!!! forecasting a strong cat.1 or cat.2 going north toward western cuba then S. Florida"

1276 wunderkidcayman "hey what about us? are you forgetting about us it takes the eye right over us?"

I suspect most islanders would welcome having a few lawn chairs being blown about in exchange for having the drought broken.
100% correct.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


I see that rotation also around 14.5N/83W just SSE of the Honduras/Nic border
Levi says it is at mid-level.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I was just seeing the same thing.


I see that rotation also around 14.5N/83W just SSE of the Honduras/Nic border
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HurricaneDean07 "Oh MY GOD, the Canadian has gone completely NUTZ!!! forecasting a strong cat.1 or cat.2 going north toward western cuba then S. Florida"

1276 wunderkidcayman "hey what about us? are you forgetting about us it takes the eye right over us?"

I suspect most islanders would welcome having a few lawn chairs being blown about in exchange for having the drought broken.
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Quoting Levi32:
The NAEFS is also still confused. The ensemble spread (shaded colors) shows three possible locations for our tropical system by Day 7, illustrated by the pink blobs. One southeast of Texas (yay?), one near western Cuba, and one north of Puerto Rico. Given the size of the eastern U.S ridge and the trough over California, I think this last possibility is becoming the least likely.



It looks like they thought we were going to get rain but maybe not? Lol.

LONG TERM...SOME RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SHOW AROUND THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER GULF SHOWS SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INTO AN INVERTED
TROF OR EASTERLY WAVE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THIS EASTERLY
FLOW HOWEVER RIDGING STILL HOLDS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH
WILL OFFSET ANY RAIN CHANCES MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE.

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
do you think there is some cyclonic turning(Mostly from vorticty in the area) East off the coast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border? looks to me, but might be an illusion from the vorticity. not sure if anyone else has noticed it? moving slightly north. dunno...
I was just seeing the same thing.
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1287. alfabob
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
hitting grand cayman too as a hurricane.

pretty akward that the canadian is the only model now really cranking the system up, and having it hit land... Nogaps eased off a bit(WEAK TS. GFS keeps it at weak TS. EMCWF puts it at a moderate tropical storm hitting S florida so id say its probably 2nd in the strength and landfall dept.

CMC is showing the anti-cyclone currently over the EPAC moving into the Caribbean; but shear is still destructive to the north when the model is depicting a strong system. The difference between the models is basically whether the EPAC develops and keeps the anti-cyclone, which would also inhibit the formation of another anti-cyclone to the NE.
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early systems like to target the big bend area of nw florida this one might turn into a cat 1 briefly while moving north in the eastern gulf
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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