An early start to hurricane season?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:12 PM GMT on May 31, 2011

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 1. Total precipitable water (a measure of how much rain would fall if we condensed all the water vapor present) for May 31, 2011 at 7am EDT. Plentiful water vapor in the SW Caribbean would create about 2 inches of rain (50 mm, orange colors) if it were all condensed out. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Receipt did not travel 525 miles from Joplin tornado
The May 22 EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri did not set a new record for longest transport of debris by a tornado. According to MSNBC, a couple living in Royal Center, Indiana, in North Central Indiana, 525 miles from Joplin, found a receipt from the Joplin Tire store three days after the tornado hit Joplin. However, a press release from Purdue University clarified that the receipt did not arrive via the tornado, but had been left behind by a relative that had visited Joplin before the tornado. The longest distance recorded for debris from a storm was a cancelled check that traveled 210 miles after the 1915 tornado in Great Bend, Kansas.

The death toll from the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri is 139, although there is still considerable uncertainty about this number. The Joplin tornado is the 8th deadliest in U.S. history, and the most deadly since the 1947 Woodward, Oklahoma twister that killed 181 people. The tornado season of 2011 now has approximately 520 deaths, which would make it the deadliest tornado season since 1936, according to statistics compiled by NOAA. In the 1936 tornado season 552 people died, mostly because of violent tornadoes that hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)


Figure 2. Satellite image taken at 23:45 UTC (7:45pm EDT) May 22, 2011, showing the line of tornadic thunderstorms that spawned the Joplin tornado. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Jeff Masters

Joplin, MO (Portlight)
Joplin, MO

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1699. Bitmap7
Tropical wave will soon collide with our mega blog.
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Quoting texwarhawk:
Why does Weatherunderground have 93L but NHC does not?

Just wait till the 1st Tropical Weather
Outlook(T.W.O) comes out in about 90mins, I'm sure they'll have something to say about it.
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Quoting texwarhawk:
Why does Weatherunderground have 93L but NHC does not?

because the low that is tagged 93L is disipating from NHC as you can see on the map below
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Quoting alfabob:

I stole the crayons, don't tell them though.


LOL you think NHC will wait for 1AM update instead of issuing a special TWO? And let me guess wunderground has "connections"?
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Quoting texwarhawk:
Why does Weatherunderground have 93L but NHC does not?


GOOD QUESTION!, DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO IT THOUGH
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Why does Weatherunderground have 93L but NHC does not?
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1692. Bitmap7


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Quoting Bitmap7:


Good observation. One I made earlier with wunderkid. The convection seems to have rotated around and is now consolidating in the new 1007 low.


quite right
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1689. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
1688. Bitmap7


Shear lifting.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


NSW/New South Wales(my state) waves to STS-134, safe landing lady and gentlemen

Australia says thanks to STS-134 for staying, Hope you enjoyed the view. Have a safe landing
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Quoting alfabob:
That LLC I noted earlier is now building convection up again, don't think it was a random mid level circulation left over from the earlier convection. Both the circulation and newer convection to the NW are now converging.


Surface observations still show a poorly organized disturbance.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
1685. Bitmap7
Quoting alfabob:
That LLC I noted earlier is now building convection up again, don't think it was a random mid level circulation left over from the earlier convection. Both the circulation and newer convection to the NW are now converging.


Good observation. One I made earlier with wunderkid. The convection seems to have rotated around and is now consolidating in the new 1007 low.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Now passing over Lake Eyre

NSW/New South Wales(my state) waves to STS-134, safe landing lady and gentlemen
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Quoting AussieStorm:

STS-134 Now passing just south of Ayres Rock.

Now passing over Lake Eyre
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1681. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
safe smart prepared
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Quoting AussieStorm:

This blog is here to share info and to seek info. It's only a few people that spoil it for the rest but they get weeded out soon enough.

Australia says welcome and hope for a safe landing for STS-134 which is now passing over our great southern land.

STS-134 Now passing just south of Ayres Rock.
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1679. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Safe season to all!
yes a safe season to all
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1678. Bitmap7
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey rufus here is some non burning fireworks


HAPPY 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 104 Comments: 24893





That is so cool. I had trouble trying to quote you though. The quote button kept running away lol.
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To commemorate (not really :P) the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, I just wrote a blog on 93L and the Caribbean disturbance. Check out if possible, please.
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Quoting Bitmap7:


Which is precisely why I never expected it to be invested.
I thought at best it would reach invest status, but I didn't expect it to reach invest status.

Not too surprised that it was declared, however. Whenever we get something near conus or major shipping lanes its much more likely to get invest status
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Thanks Aussie. :) I like to answer questions on the blog too if I have the answers.

This blog is here to share info and to seek info. It's only a few people that spoil it for the rest but they get weeded out soon enough.

Australia says welcome and hope for a safe landing for STS-134 which is now passing over our great southern land.
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Hope everyone stays safe.
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Safe season to all!
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And so it begins.
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1671. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
hey rufus here is some non burning fireworks


HAPPY 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
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Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And never brought to mind?
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And auld lang syne!

Chorus.-For auld lang syne, my dear,
For auld lang syne.
We'll take a cup o' kindness yet,
For auld lang syne.
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1669. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
take a deep breath boys and girls we got the beginnings of a long season ahead
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Nothing wrong with asking question, one can never stop learning.


Thanks Aussie. :) I like to answer questions on the blog too if I have the answers.
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Just noticed....a little rain in TX now....good

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guess the shuttle coming in from sw to west, now, how far above the horizon?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh yes I know. I think it was Alex last year who had a really low pressure for June nearly equaling that of Audrey but thankfully he didn't reach a cat4. Having this to reference may keep my question asking down a bit. For which I'm sure, everyone will be grateful. Lol.

Nothing wrong with asking question, one can never stop learning.
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1664. Bitmap7
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Hey wunderkid, good nite everyone


hey HurricaneDean07 good night to you too
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
you are welcome, just realize those are just generalizations, and can be off and often are


Oh yes I know. I think it was Alex last year who had a really low pressure for June nearly equaling that of Audrey but thankfully he didn't reach a cat4. Having this to reference may keep my question asking down a bit. For which I'm sure, everyone will be grateful. Lol.
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Hey wunderkid, good nite everyone
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Insane

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1659. geepy86
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well let me think umm yeah


LOL
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1658. Bitmap7
Quoting JRipswx27:
Convection on 93L seems to be waning somewhat.


Which is precisely why I never expected it to be invested. The whole life of that system depended upon an anticyclone. The fact that its pressure reading was that of a weak high pressure system told me that this is not the effect of an actual low, but the effect of having an anticyclone. And knowing anticyclones it could decide to change its shape at anytime and then its lights out for the little fur ball. Why? It doesn't have any real low pressure so it cant hold on to its convection. It probably had the illusion of rotation for the high was expelling air from its center in tandem with the effect of the anticyclone. It probably had very good surface convergence so it could keep up the rate of convection, with the rate of mass in the form of air being lost. Notice that now the anticyclone isn't very symmetrical, its loosing its form.
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Quoting geepy86:
nope that would be the third poof of the season however pre-94L may be a moderate puff

With all due respect I did say puff.

well let me think umm yeah

Quoting geepy86:

Yep first puff of the season. : )
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1656. ackee
when do u guys think the NHC will mention the disturbance in the SW carib
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1653. EricSFL
Look at the difference of drought conditions between west-central and southeast Florida.
Link
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1652. geepy86
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
i hope this wont be the year of the puffies

I hope this will be the year of puffies.
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1651. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Guysgal:
. Patap_this is so beautiful. Is it Aztec or Mayan? Just asking. Thks
mayan
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i hope this wont be the year of the puffies
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Thanks again Joe! :) That'll come in handy!
you are welcome, just realize those are just generalizations, and can be off and often are
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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