An early start to hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.
Figure 1. Total precipitable water (a measure of how much rain would fall if we condensed all the water vapor present) for May 31, 2011 at 7am EDT. Plentiful water vapor in the SW Caribbean would create about 2 inches of rain (50 mm, orange colors) if it were all condensed out. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.
Receipt did not travel 525 miles from Joplin tornado
The May 22 EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri did not set a new record for longest transport of debris by a tornado. According to MSNBC, a couple living in Royal Center, Indiana, in North Central Indiana, 525 miles from Joplin, found a receipt from the Joplin Tire store three days after the tornado hit Joplin. However, a press release from Purdue University clarified that the receipt did not arrive via the tornado, but had been left behind by a relative that had visited Joplin before the tornado. The longest distance recorded for debris from a storm was a cancelled check that traveled 210 miles after the 1915 tornado in Great Bend, Kansas.
The death toll from the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri is 139, although there is still considerable uncertainty about this number. The Joplin tornado is the 8th deadliest in U.S. history, and the most deadly since the 1947 Woodward, Oklahoma twister that killed 181 people. The tornado season of 2011 now has approximately 520 deaths, which would make it the deadliest tornado season since 1936, according to statistics compiled by NOAA. In the 1936 tornado season 552 people died, mostly because of violent tornadoes that hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)
Figure 2. Satellite image taken at 23:45 UTC (7:45pm EDT) May 22, 2011, showing the line of tornadic thunderstorms that spawned the Joplin tornado. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.
Jeff Masters
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Thought no one would ask. I usually don't post these until later in the season.
Nothing big but interesting nonetheless. Looks to go right over my area, thing is cruising too. I am curious to see what it brings with it.
Looks ominous, ike, if I say so myself, at hour 240.
Blogger ike, do you see this as being, do you think, a north florida threater?
Are we talking about the same thing? At the end of the ECMWF run, between hours 192 and 240, it moves NE due to a pretty huge weakness to the north and a squished high pushed back to the east. However this just one run, and it's extremely far out, so the little details shouldn't really be over-analyzed and argued over.
I vote for both!
AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH RETROGRESSES...THIS WILL ALLOW
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO GRADUALLY REPOSITION...WITH AXIS FORECAST
TO SHIFT WEST BETWEEN 85W-60W BY THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER SHEAR
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS TROUGH PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL VENT AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ACROSS
VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. IT IS TO ALSO VENT
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG MEANDERING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH IS TO REMAIN ALONG 78W/80W...WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS FEATURE BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGH TIME. THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS AREA AND WILL
ISSUE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS REQUIRED.
Link
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
It is.
And some SAL for extra flavor and texture...
It DOES seem like that today, doesn't it?
Wilmington, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI
I know they don't...but once they enter the Caribbean and areas further west, development becomes a lot higher probability.
These are the people that called for 25-28 named storms last year.
okay...just the Caribbean then, lol.
SOURCE
There's almost as much dry air in the GOM as there is off Africa...
You know, there are some others in here that speak Spanish. So I would suggest that unless you really enjoy getting your latest handle banned (again), that you stop calling people filthy, illiterate, and incompetent.
Also, speaking of respecting adults... Hello pot, meet kettle. It would behoove you to take your own medicine.
Yet another blob drifting looplessly against the Gulf Stream.
The Gulf of Mexico is further west than the Caribbean.
Makes me wonder whether or not this is a precursor to some statement from the NHC.
According to the NLOM 30-Day SST forecast, water temperatures out in the open Alantic are forecast to warm quite a bit.
If I see something in the water with tentacles that sting, its a jellyfish. I don't care what order its in, it is in the water, has tentacles, and stings. Therefore, in my mind its a jellyfish, and plenty of reason to get out of the water. (I've been stung by a jellyfish before, and it is not pleasant.... or anything I EVER want to repeat)
That's what I was thinking too...It got me wondering.
what?
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