Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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2524. IKE
Here comes the seabreeze front. Here comes some showers from the NE....heading SW....please bring me rain. It's 99.7 outside my window....


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2523. aquak9
barefoot- many of these kids don't realize that television stations USED to be independent. Only us old folks remember history.

Georgia, eh?
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Quoting aquak9:
bitmap- I've seen'm break 4,000 comments. It'll run.




i seen it hit 5,000 or 6,000 one time last year i think we all most hit 7,000 commets at one time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
latest RGB showing the naked low level circulation of 94 moving WNW to about 78W 16-17N north now..the convection is expanding to the east, probably as the TW approaches..
So things are looking never never land for 94L after looking promising this morning.
We'll have to see if it forms a new LLC under the convection as the wave goes by.
The Front from the latest Temperate low to come of the East Coast has pushed south and is nicely defined..
The gradient between the high that builds in and 94L
may give it some extra spin and wind it up..
At the same time there is a good Chance the GFS is dead on and a new Low is going to form from the stalled front directly over ME!!!! ahhahahahahaahhah
Then we can watch if that one winds up...
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Quoting aquak9:
bitmap- I've seen'm break 4,000 comments. It'll run.


Masters will probably update tomorrow or Monday. Tomorrow is on 94L's side as a tropical wave is moving in from the west to aide 94L in development.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Pressure, did you listen to what I said in my previous post about Bob Breck?

See post 2475.

And while you are at it, see post 2477.



if you stop LOL am going too get my poofer out and poof you has well


plzs put him on Ignore and move on
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
2517. Levi32
Buoy 42058 is still working on Coolwx as of 21z reports:



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Quoting GiovannaDatoli:

Bob Breck is another meteorologist like Joe Bastardi who thinks they know everything. No wonder why Fox contracts with him. Haven't you figured that out yet?


The station did not affiliate with Fox until many years after Breck secured his position at WVUE. Weatherman Bob Breck completes his 30th year on the air

You seem vaguely familiar. Maybe you're blogging from the state of Georgia.
...

As for 94L, on sat loops, it hasn't looked like anything yet except a broad monsoonal area.

93L was very interesting to watch.
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2515. Bitmap7
Quoting GiovannaDatoli:

I had to get up and let everyone here know I am going to take a break too, and then come back a few minutes later. Must be the Cerveza. Are you sure about all the dry air entrainment 94L is struggling with on it's NW side. Seems to me there is plenty of juicy moisture in the middle level sector? I think dry air is just a cop out to make it look like you know what you are talking about when you in fact you really can't find the bearings on 94L. She's a tricky one to forecast all right. I know.


There is see at the mid levels.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/upperair/78397_rh.gi f
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
2513. aquak9
bitmap- I've seen'm break 4,000 comments. It'll run.
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Logging in after an exhausting day in anticipation of enjoying some "down time" learning a thing or two. Guess I should check back tomorrow.
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2511. Bitmap7
We are going to need a new blog soon. 50+ pages.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
Quoting aquak9:
I feel like I'm trying to defend a GHOST

Let'm run with it, Keeper. I wanna watch.


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2507. beell
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2506. aquak9
Zapper- it's kinda like Rob Lightbown's situation. (CrownWeather) He rarely drops in, but he's GOOD, and then everyone slams him. He's got better things to do with his time, than fuss on this blog with high-schoolers.

Probably the same situation w/Breck. The man has a life...unlike us, hahaha...
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2504. hamla
why is everybody picking in the little fella as he calls himslf on channel 8 in n.o. la.like the old song why is evreybody picking on me

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This would be a great study on how testosterone has the same effects regardless of whether or not the males are in physical proximity to each other. Is this a forum on the sociobiology of getting pissed off at each other at the drop of a hat, or a comments section of a tropical weather blog? Indeed I believe it is intended as the latter.

The percentage of idle banter in combination with blatant pugnacity to valid tropical weather discussion in this particular blog post is absolutely embarrassing.
Member Since: May 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 246
2501. Bitmap7
Quoting kmanislander:


I just looked at 42058 and noticed that the back up site has kicked in. I hope we don't lose that buoy again as it only came back online about a week ago after being out of service for about 18 months. Winds picking up there now around 18 knots sustained


Ours seems to be still stuck at 18utc too.

p.s. LOL this blog can be the most entertaining at times
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
I wrote Bob an email yesterday about all the low blows some here have leveled his way. I encouraged him to defend himself on this blog if possible. Bob Breck has a cool head and is super sharp, so watch out. He has prevented panic in a jumpy city, that since Katrina almost freaks out at the mention of a new system. And he's ACCURATE. When he does his show Monday I am sure he will have good news for us about 94L
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2496. aquak9
I feel like I'm trying to defend a GHOST

Let'm run with it, Keeper. I wanna watch.
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Quoting PcolaDan:
like watching a bad boxing match


LMAO

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2493. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i see you have been preparing well today we got two of the handles removed working on three
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like watching a bad boxing match
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Quoting Bitmap7:
Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 04 Jun 2011 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.81 in and falling
Air Temperature: 79.2 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Water Temperature: 82.2 F

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 04 Jun 2011 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 5.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 77.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.1 F



I just looked at 42058 and noticed that the back up site has kicked in. I hope we don't lose that buoy again as it only came back online about a week ago after being out of service for about 18 months. Winds picking up there now around 18 knots sustained
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Some showers and storms are beginning to build on the western side.


I don't see any except for a typical afternoon thunderstorm over Jamaica.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting KanKunKid:


More cerveza than Chiquitas! The Mayan DNA has proliferated into the local populace and mixed with the Spanish and other Indian DNA has not produced an attractive female variety in that particular area, quite the opposite in fact. (Can you say, "Mud Fence?") The culture and living style of the people does not give a chance for the same to develop inner beauty. So, much to everyone's surprise, I was not attracted, nor did I develop a relationship with one. The women from Northern Mexico and even Mexico city could be absolutely gorgeous! They are mixed in with the other Indian tribes and Spanish somewhat. They were not common and they knew it. It went straight to their pretty little heads.
I was divorced by my Cuban wife while I was there, so I was just an observer anyway. I should know better.
After you reach a certain age, you become invisible to women. They can still see large masses of dinero, power and fame, but lacking those things, you're just another speed bump in Mexico. (Not all women of course, just the ones I run into)
I am glad to be back here where they understand preparation for Tropical Weather and the police (as far as I know) will not ask you to evacuate early so they can heist your stuff before it starts raining.

I think it is going to be more "hands on" this year than last. At least I know who to listen to this year (Levi) I wonder if he is back from Alaska..



My, my. Welcome back, Kev. Nice to hear from you!
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Back later
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2485. Bitmap7
Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 04 Jun 2011 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.81 in and falling
Air Temperature: 79.2 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Water Temperature: 82.2 F

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 04 Jun 2011 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (40°) at 5.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 77.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.1 F

Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
2483. aquak9
wondered if anyone would catch that, press.
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Quoting GiovannaDatoli:

Bob Breck is another meteorologist like Joe Bastardi who thinks they know everything. No wonder why Fox contracts with him. Haven't you figured that out yet?


Already did.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Model support for Florida Drought Relief:

GFS
NOGAPS
BAMM
ECMWF


Oh, Sammy...from your posted model to the rain god's ears! South Florida NEEDS rain! Pottery, am going to hang my shower curtain backwards today! Howdy, everyone, nice to be back "lurking" through the season. Started a tad bit tooo early, but will make everyone check out their hurricane supplies now and not wait until July or August.
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Some showers and storms are beginning to build on the western side.
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Quoting aquak9:
A little about Bob Breck:

A native of Hammond, Indiana, Bob received a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology & Oceanography from the University of Michigan in December of 1969.

He received AMS TV Seal of Approval # 90 in 1971 and, after passing a comprehensive exam on theoretical & operational meteorology in June of 2009, was awarded the new AMS CERTIFIED BROADCAST METEOROLOGIST Seal. Bob is the only Chief Meteorologist in New Orleans to display the AMS CBM. He has also been twice honored by the National Hurricane Conference and was named AMS Broadcaster of the Year in 2008.

After a stint in the Marine Corps Reserve and the Air Force Reserves, Bob's first television opportunity began in 1971 at WTVT Television Channel 13 in Tampa, Florida where he trained under Tampa Weather legend Roy Leep.


He's gotta LOTTA experience under his belt. Kinda like George Winterling here in NE Fla. He could probably out-forecast MANY of us on here.

And if any of you young ones had a chance to spend a week learning about the tropics with him, I doubt you'd turn it down.


the alma mater of another tropical meteorologist of some note...
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Quoting pressureman:
tropic freak it seems like you have to learn i have my facts straight...im sure PATRAP would agree with me ...you have a hatred streak for a man who knows hurricanes better then most in the NHC..


I do not, I am just saying that you mention BOB BRECK too much in your posts, I never said I hated him, I said he isn't the NHC, meaning, he's not the one and only person who makes up the NHC.
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2474. aquak9
If any of you young ones had a chance to spend a week learning about the tropics with him, I doubt you'd turn it down.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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