Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 824 - 774

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

HWRF forecasting Hurricane Alrene as it scoots off to the NE:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homewoodweather589:

whats up levi, i've been following you posts on youtube and they have been extremely informative. what are your thought for 94l tonight?


Thank you. I appreciate it.

94L looks more organized, but still broad and weighted to the eastern side. As upper ridging spreads northwest over the next 3 days I expect it will continue to gradually organize. I don't see any reason not to expect this to have a good shot at becoming a tropical depression eventually. The lack of model support is glaring, but it has happened before, and the model consensus is far from always right. The meteorology suggests this is a threat to slowly develop, and that is mainly what my opinion will be based on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Now the season will really start on here. Buckle up....it saves lives!
Time for me to go to lurk mode. Wouldn't be able to keep up. Have a good one all.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
821. xcool
FLPandhandleJG lol hey pimp #@
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
797. unruly 11:52 PM GMT on June 03, 2011
Quoting FLdewey:
Your trust is well placed sir.I'm curious to see what the other "alternative" models show...


you mean the CPB? i think RIDGES has that model.....
Do you mean to say that your not involved in the "TTBP" models yet? (I thought you would be all over that..)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
819. IKE

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
you guys should read the 8pm TWD its interesting
LOL! I posted right after your post...lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


praying that i get more rain.. I will take what i can get..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
817. IKE
Latest discussion......

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTERED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
JAMAICA. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
EVIDENCE OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER
THE LOW...GENERALLY PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS BEING DRAWN
INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HEAVY RAINS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN AND COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...A
SPECIAL FEATURE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THE
TWD. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO FRESH NE WIND
FLOW...BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND HIGH PRES TO THE N...WILL MOVE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE
A NLY FLOW PREVAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS SAT. SEE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING
WATERS... INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
you guys should read the 8pm TWD its interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:

I'm wishcasting this thunderstorm in too.

I hope 94L moves on and doesn't cause flooding for some. It may just do that though.
I'm just messing with you.
I wouldn't mind a little tropical storm myself. It's nature's way. And unfortunately we both know that does mean flooding for some. But it's better than burning up in a fire, which happens too to some if it stays parched.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening.

whats up levi, i've been following you posts on youtube and they have been extremely informative. what are your thought for 94l tonight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
I love your avatar, unruly! Hoping for a good Game 2!
Yeah me too. Gotta beat 'em hard and fast! Not unlike the Hurricane season...(or other "indoor activities")
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
I see no reason why this season should be a blockbuster. There will be less activity than last year. If we were to move into a weak El Nino, which is possible in these times of climate instability, then it will be even quieter. Don't fall for these predictions by Dr Gray.

Everyone poof this troll. Please!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:

HH POD


000
NOUS42 KNHC 032045 AMD
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70




If we looking for a 'motion' in any direction, I'm confident we have the right men & women...on the job!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricaneben:


Look, there will probably be slightly less activity than last year but this season will be no bust. We'll have similar totals this year to 2004/2008, not the most active but still generally above average. And I think the US will be in much greater danger this year then last, maybe not as high or higher total-wise but US impact-wise the pattern favors more landfalls.



Relax... look at the join date, and the number of comments. It's a fandle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
I see no reason why this season should be a blockbuster. There will be less activity than last year. If we were to move into a weak El Nino, which is possible in these times of climate instability, then it will be even quieter. Don't fall for these predictions by Dr Gray.


Won't be going into an El Nino anytime soon...with a cold PDO.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
We have IKE wishcasting now!
Aye carumba. Has the world turned on it's axis?
It has been exceptionally dry in a lot of places. Lack of water can cause crazy talk......
Nice to see you again Cosmic. Have you been well?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
797. unruly 11:52 PM GMT on June 03, 2011
Quoting FLdewey:
Your trust is well placed sir.I'm curious to see what the other "alternative" models show...


you mean the CPB? i think RIDGES has that model.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
We have IKE wishcasting now!
Aye carumba. Has the world turned on it's axis?
It has been exceptionally dry in a lot of places. Lack of water can cause crazy talk......
he has been for a while now. idk what's up, sudden change of heart?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting unruly:
You got me into this. nice to see you Brother. :)

Wait... what? :-p

Good to see you too - getting a feel for which people have aquired which fake handle.

Hmmm.

Me thinks fake + handle = fandle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
I see no reason why this season should be a blockbuster. There will be less activity than last year. If we were to move into a weak El Nino, which is possible in these times of climate instability, then it will be even quieter. Don't fall for these predictions by Dr Gray.


Look, there will probably be slightly less activity than last year but this season will be no bust. We'll have similar totals this year to 2004/2008, not the most active but still generally above average. And I think the US will be in much greater danger this year then last, maybe not as high or higher total-wise but US impact-wise the pattern favors more landfalls.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I love your avatar, unruly! Hoping for a good Game 2!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looking at the last few RGB satellite images of 94L, the circulation appears to be approximately near 16.4˚N 77.3˚W and stationary.


You saw we beat Jax 7-2 today?? On to the Gates tomorrow!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
799. xcool
;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Model Support is beginning to return to 94L, and it seems that along with more model support for 94L more models are agreeing that we could see a storm form NE puerto Rico
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
Your trust is well placed sir.
I'm curious to see what the other "alternative" models show...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
796. IKE

Quoting CosmicEvents:
We have IKE wishcasting now!
Aye carumba. Has the world turned on it's axis?
It has been exceptionally dry in a lot of places. Lack of water can cause crazy talk......
I'm wishcasting this thunderstorm in too.

I hope 94L moves on and doesn't cause flooding for some. It may just do that though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurric hihi
Quoting AllStar17:


Nice to see you again this year!
Good to see you guys. Glad both of you came back for the season.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting AllStar17:
What day is recon. scheduled for? Thanks!


Tomorrow afternoon.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting FLdewey:
Your trust is well placed sir.
You got me into this. nice to see you Brother. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What day is recon. scheduled for? Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looking at the last few RGB satellite images of 94L, the circulation appears to be approximately near 16.4˚N 77.3˚W and stationary.


Nice to see you again this year!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have IKE wishcasting now!
Aye carumba. Has the world turned on it's axis?
It has been exceptionally dry in a lot of places. Lack of water can cause crazy talk......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
789. xcool
MiamiHurric hihi
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at the last few RGB satellite images of 94L, the circulation appears to be approximately near 16.4˚N 77.3˚W and stationary.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting FrankZapper:
20 knots. That's nothing to sneeze at!
It is if you're a mosquito.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting Ryuujin:
I can't even tell where the center of circulation is on those loops. So do we even have a clue where this thing is going to go? Is it going to head out east, or just sit there for a while?


it going to sit there for maybe couple of days then head West bound
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see no reason why this season should be a blockbuster. There will be less activity than last year. If we were to move into a weak El Nino, which is possible in these times of climate instability, then it will be even quieter. Don't fall for these predictions by Dr Gray.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

HH POD


000
NOUS42 KNHC 032045 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0445 PM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-003 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK............CHANGED:
BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can't even tell where the center of circulation is on those loops. So do we even have a clue where this thing is going to go? Is it going to head out east, or just sit there for a while?

NVM Ike answered it.

Good luck with the rain Ike, hope it doesn't just poof on you. I've never seen Florida with so little rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Your trust is well placed sir.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
781. IKE
Unless it dies out I'm in business!!!! Woohoo!


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
780. xcool
i was rite
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032337
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
778. IKE

Quoting AllStar17:
Notice: NEARLY STATIONARY in the latest TWO. Looking like it will stall as the models predicted.
If it will just hang around and then start moving N to NNW and bring us some rain.

Yes....I'm wishcasting a TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressures have continued to fall a little bit over the past few hours in Jamaica.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We saw a few pop-up T-storms develop yesterday at the end of a record breaking day. 100 year old temps fell like tired old prize fighters. Saw nothing at my particular location, but that comes with the territory.

Looks like our friends along to coast to my East will see some rain the next week. Enjoy!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L Caribbean - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Orange!

30% chance of development, pretty much expected this.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878

Viewing: 824 - 774

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
45 °F
Overcast