Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed
The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.
Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.
Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:
1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)
2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)
3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)
4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)
5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)
Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.
A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:
- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.
- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.
- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.
- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.
- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.
- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.
- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.
- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.
- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.
- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)
Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)
Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.
Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:
1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)
Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.
The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.
I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.
Jeff Masters
Here it is turning into a monster.
Reader Comments
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Could be because it's just after DMax right now too.
It may look a little less healthy in a couple of hours.
It's still a Fascinating system though!
It's been over a week....
June 05, 2011 at 5:00 a.m.
***FLASH FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT ***
The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, St Catherine, Clarendon, Kingston and St Andrew, while a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all others parishes until 5:
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING means flooding has been reported or will occur shortly. Motorists and pedestrians should not attempt to cross flooded roadways or other low-lying areas as strong currents are likely. Residents in low-lying areas should be on the alert for rising waters and be ready to move quickly to higher ground.
The area of Low Pressure over the Caribbean Sea, south of Jamaica has remained almost stationary over the past 12 hours. This area of disturbed weather is expected to linger across the region until Tuesday and will continue to influence the weather over the island during the period.
Satellite imagery and RADAR reports indicate that light to moderate and at times heavy showers affected mostly eastern and central parishes last night.
However, the forecast is for periods of showers and thunderstorms, which could be heavy at times, to continue to affect most parishes today and continuing into early next week.
Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise caution, as strong winds and rough sea conditions are expected in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.
The Area of Low Pressure currently has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and the Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.
Good Morning!
The ULL (in the GOM) is helping 94L this morning.
That's a Great image.
The ULL is reinforcing the ridge in the NW Caribbean but the real problem is that shear is still pretty plentiful notwithstanding high pressure above the system. There is also a swath of dry air on the SW side of the blow up that will probably get entrained into it. Today will be another struggle for 94L IMO
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR 16N79W
WITH A TROUGH SW TO NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA. THESE FEATURES WILL
LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. A TROPICAL
WAVE S OF 15N ALONG 61W IS MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE WAVE WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NE AS A TROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH THU. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THIS WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON BEFORE IT ALSO
LIFTS N AS A TROUGH TUE AND WED.
It's certainly firing up convection. It looks like the spin is actually centred underneath all of the new convection. If 94L could get itself a CoC under all of that convection, that would help it a lot. I'm guessing we'll get another 20% in the TWO in a few minutes.
Post 3210.
That shows the overall situation pretty well.
Note the cloud-top motion, and the area of dry to the south and west.
It will have problems today, and may look real sick by this evening.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE THIS FAR OUT INTO EXTENDED
FORECAST...THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE INDICATE
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH
OF CUBA SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWEST. DUE TO THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES BACK
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD TO EXPRESS SOME DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY.
Rain finally? Or do you think a little bit more?
138 Hours
I can see the spin SW or WSW of the blow up of convection.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVERNIGHT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Yeh, that image shows a centre pretty clearly. There's actually some convection coming up from South America towards 94L, might help to moisten some of the dry air around 94L.
Hope so Gro. But as the discussion states...Low Confidence.
Could be. But we need a loop to confirm that one.
Another day of watching and waiting LOL
Hopefully my game doesn't get rained out :-(
Take a look at the RGB loop. Right on the SW corner of the blob is where the rotation is.
I have a crew coming here to mix 10 cu.yds of concrete to cast a footing for a new building.
It's not looking too good, rain-wise.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Yeah I saw that. But a looped Vis would be nice.
We'll get one later.
No it isn't. You might want to hold off !
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Got my rain gear ready LOL
You got to be faster than that, teddy. I beat you. LOL
Link
It's nearly 8:00, and I have not seen them so they may have decided against it.
Have the trenches covered with Galv., but its soggy out there and it is clay.
Walking in it is like walking in Glue...
You and pot could get a little wet before we do. Looks like that woody guy from last night really got this one. I think he was mostly ignored, but he was right on this. Wonder where he is? Probably has a job or worse, even works.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
I suspect several inches. Low lying flood watch may have to be issued here for tomorrow onwards depending on how this plays out.
Lol, if I had my morning coffee I'd have beaten you.
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
I wasn't on then but these types of systems flare up at Dmax and die down by Dmin. Quite a common occurrence.
What a Ghastly Idea!
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