Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting sammywammybamy:


See Post 420 for Directions

:) I know how to do it but I was trying to tell her in the easiest way since she already had the properties.

Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Looks like the EPAC is just going to beat the Atlantic to the first storm of the season. NOAA predicts 15 in both basins, so we have something of a competition on the cards.... Haha

NOAA is predicting 9-15 in the EPAC basin, or an average of 12. So slightly less for EPAC.

it seems on vis loop that the LLC is getting dragged back and into the MLC you can see the LLC becoming elongated W-E

I still contend that the low center is west of the convection. SW inflow directly into a thunderstorm complex does not imply a low center there, as air flows around a low center, not directly toward it, courtesy of the coriolis force. If you turn on lat/lon lines, the center of rotation appears to be near 79.5W at the end of the loop.

I think we will see a TD earlier than some people think..just from my personal forecasting experiences when a storm takes a long time to conslidate once it gets going it can take off quick...Tropical Storm Alex of last year comes to mind with a quick developing near the Yuctuan

Quoting washingtonian115:
But 94L doesn't even have a name and it's effecting people in a great way(Flooding problems in the carribean)

I completely agree, I think it's easy to only be watching possible tropical storm formation and to forget about the problems that this system is causing already.

Pressure in East End down to 1006 mb and winds are East @ 25 mph.

Quoting Levi32:
I still contend that the low center is west of the convection. SW inflow directly into a thunderstorm complex does not imply a low center there, as air flows around a low center, not directly toward it, courtesy of the coriolis force. If you turn on lat/lon lines, the center of rotation appears to be near 79.5W at the end of the loop.

Could be. Either way the center is on the way to being covered over. There is less than a degree separating us in terms of center position.

Looking at the Vorticity maps that Kman was showing added with visible imagery i will go out on a limb and say that a Tropical Depression is most likely forming right now or will form tonight...it is extremely close...though i do think we will not have confirmation of this until tomorrow

We have another lower diurnal cycle at the buoy just west of 94L, indicating that the system may finally be seeing a slow deepening trend that has been absent thus far in its life cycle. It will be interesting to see how low the pressure gets later tonight during the next diurnal period once the center of 94L is closer to the buoy.

if this goes over cuba, wont the center relocate..it did it with ernesto and ended up hitting south florida head on and didnt even go into the GOM..

Quoting kmanislander:


Could be. Either way the center is on the way to being covered over. There is less than a degree separating us in terms of center position.

It's true. I guess I just love visible satellite interpretation.

Quoting sammywammybamy:


My Bad...

Grothar confused me...

He made an accidental typo... its okay Grothar!


I Always though that the worst quadrant of a tropical cyclone is the North East Quad...

Sorry, sammy, If you think you're confused, you should see me at medicine time. Even though most storms normally have the strongest weather to the North and East, Hurrican Katrina, when it hit Ft. Lauderdale and Miami, actually had the worst weather to the South and West for most of the storm.

Quoting Levi32:
I still contend that the low center is west of the convection. SW inflow directly into a thunderstorm complex does not imply a low center there, as air flows around a low center, not directly toward it, courtesy of the coriolis force. If you turn on lat/lon lines, the center of rotation appears to be near 79.5W at the end of the loop.

I agree with that fix, looks like circulation is centred there. Interesting to note that on the last few frames there is convection firing up near that centre.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Pressure in East End down to 1006 mb and winds are East @ 25 mph.

1008.4 here and falling

Quoting sammywammybamy:


^ Ok.

Without Futher Adu:

Due to the Unusual Lack of a Poll Question , I Must Compensate for this Error

POLL:

What is the Percantage on the Next Two for 94L

A) 30%
B) 40%
C) 50%
D) 60%
E) 70%
F) Shower Curtains!

C or D

Quoting sammywammybamy:


^ Ok.

Without Futher Adu:

Due to the Unusual Lack of a Poll Question , I Must Compensate for this Error

POLL:

What is the Percantage on the Next Two for 94L

A) 30%
B) 40%
C) 50%
D) 60%
E) 70%
F) Shower Curtains!

i pick F

Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Sun, Jun 05, 2011.

As of Sun, 05 Jun 2011 20:00:01 GMT

2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
94L.INVEST

East Pacific
91E.INVEST (T.C.F.A.)

Central Pacific

West Pacific
92W.INVEST

Indian Ocean
98A.INVEST

Southern Hemisphere

Quoting Tazmanian:





i pick F

B

Quoting sammywammybamy:


^ Ok.

Without Futher Adu:

Due to the Unusual Lack of a Poll Question , I Must Compensate for this Error

POLL:

What is the Percantage on the Next Two for 94L

A) 30%
B) 40%
C) 50%
D) 60%
E) 70%
F) Shower Curtains!

I think it's a little early for this poll lol, the TWO is still three hours out, a lot could change by then, or we could at least know more. At the minute, my guess would be B.

Quoting alfabob:
Yep that larger mid-low level rotation to the south of Jamaica should be absorbing the surface low. It has much stronger inflow and you can already see it starting to merge in the SW quadrant.

Yep, and on rainbow notice the convection beginning to wrap around the mid-low level COC.
Link

Quoting sammywammybamy:


^ Ok.

Without Futher Adu:

Due to the Unusual Lack of a Poll Question , I Must Compensate for this Error

POLL:

What is the Percantage on the Next Two for 94L

A) 30%
B) 40%
C) 50%
D) 60%
E) 70%
F) Shower Curtains!

C or D

Levi

New surface pressure map places the area of lowest pressure just West of that convective blow up with the cloud deck entering the Eastern half of the center position.

Also note the thunderstorms going off on the far west side of the circulation just north of Honduras. The atmosphere is slowly moistening up in the NW Caribbean, making the way a bit easier for 94L as it drifts in that direction.

94L has become really healthy since yesterday, convection now on the western end of the (new?) COC.

Quoting kmanislander:
Levi

New surface pressure map places the area of lowest pressure just West of that convective blow up

I agree with that position.

Quoting kmanislander:
Levi

New surface pressure map places the area of lowest pressure just West of that convective blow up

Yeah, thats what I was saying earlier. Looked pretty conclusive on visible satellite.

50%

114. Sammy

OK, I see ur point. Track needs to at the most edge the western side. Thing is, as lopsided as this is, and is likely to continue to be, a much more easterly track would also lead to limited precipitation....

94l move to nw hmmm

Question for those whom have been here awhile .. which model seems to be more accurate?

Quoting PcolaDan:


You shouldn't have a problem with that. I mean c'mon, you interviewed these guys didn't you?

EAST -

WEST -

During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.


with 94L geting its act togeter we are now in a active period wish means some ruls may be strictly enforced so i would watch what you post and keep evere thing re rated too 94L so in other words what you are posting is not re rated too 94L

Taking a break now. Back later

Quoting xcool:
50%

Is that from the outlook or from your guess?.

Quoting kmanislander:
Taking a break now. Back later

ok have a good break

its 1007.6 and falling

If 17.5N 76.5W is mid level it sure is hard to ignore what appears to be a feeder band SW of this point working its way to the east.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that from the outlook or from your guess?.

he was this makeing a guess i think

Quoting Tazmanian:



During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.


with 94L geting its act togeter we are now in a active period wish means some ruls may be strictly enforced so i would watch what you post and keep evere thing re rated too 94L so in other words what you are posting is not re rated too 94L

Taz, there's blog admins to do this.

washingtonian115 just guess.