Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
local just said watches and warnings could be issued for west FL next week
you are doing it again
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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
local just said watches and warnings could be issued for west FL next week
who are the locals??? what news stations because there are some like channel 7 who exagerate things alot
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We need in Texas, by some miracle, for 94L to come and give us some rain.
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Why am I not surprised.

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Poor Jamaica..I betcha they not wishing for a weak tropical system..a slow moving system causing flash floods is just terrible..
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Even 94L is getting better organized (chances up to 40%). I see a possibility of 2 named storms by Tuesday--or sooner.
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Looks like it's shaping up with every new frame.

Look at the outflow now exhaling her out on all sides.

Classic set up.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I think a weak tropical storm with at least 45mph winds is a better chance.
I'm thinking 60 - 65 mph are about outer limits, especially if it stays west rather than coming due north. Your 45 does sound more like the realm of possibility, though. Frankly, it doesn't have to even get to named system status to satisfy me - IF we get a couple of inches of rain with it....
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local just said watches and warnings could be issued for west FL next week
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Wait a minute... Last Blog was posted on 3:33 PM GMT. And this blog was posted on 4:44 PM GMT. Coincidence?
Next will be 555 and then 666 DOOOOMMMM BLOG!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
South Florida and the Panhandle.
All of Florida is hurting right now.It would take a Fay to ease you all's drought.
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94L up to 40%
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 051734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ONLY
SLOWLY DECREASING...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WINDS IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY BECOME SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Code Red for 91E. I don't know about 94L, but with 91E we could be seeing a TD as early as tonight/tomorrow morning if the organization rate continues.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Since '08 the CMC has been better about the constant strong storms. Also, while we do see the CMC doing a much better job re. track, we really aren't committed to it re. intensity.

As for the GFS, that's notorious now for dropping a storm just before it forms....

I think there's still a good chance for 94L to form, to get to depression status, and to make a run for moderate TS status before it runs smack into that ridge.

But we shall see.... sloooowwwwwwwllllllllyyyyyyyyyy............
I think a weak tropical storm with at least 45mph winds is a better chance.
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Quoting KanKunKid:


Bring it on! To South Florida I mean (I'm not in Cancun anymore) We need the rain! Crispy and Crunchy are supposed to describe breakfast cereals not the front lawn. We could use a rain event all the up to Cat 4. But I would be happy with a no name "boo-boo". or a TS.
Be careful what you say the Leprechauns are listening.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
I hope 94l comes to South East Florida and the Bahamas.... We need more rain than northern florida..... Im hoping for a slow moving tropical depression moving in
Heartily concur. I don't care if track stays west of us, so long as we get some precipitation from it.
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Wait a minute... Last Blog was posted on 3:33 PM GMT. And this blog was posted on 4:44 PM GMT. Coincidence?
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Quoting ncstorm:
I cant believe people are actually believing the CMC model..remember what it stands for..Canadian Model on Crack..the latest GFS drops 94L all together..the doc was smart in not saying where it will end up..
Since '08 the CMC has been better about the constant strong storms. Also, while we do see the CMC doing a much better job re. track, we really aren't committed to it re. intensity.

As for the GFS, that's notorious now for dropping a storm just before it forms....

I think there's still a good chance for 94L to form, to get to depression status, and to make a run for moderate TS status before it runs smack into that ridge.

But we shall see.... sloooowwwwwwwllllllllyyyyyyyyyy............
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I just gassed up my generator and fired it up. getting things ready for hurricane season 2011 and 2012. 94 scares me
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Anyone watching L91 in pacific. Looks like a pretty good storm already.
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people on here need to relax and not be so tense , there are people who freak out with the models and there are people who want a full blown hurricane to hit there house let them dream all they want and the sane one track things like pro's that we are
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Quoting BahaHurican:
@ post # 60.

Did I mention I was looking into some battery powered halogen-style lighting? I'm thinking it would make a great addition to my hurricane kit....
For some odd reason I like collecting articals on hurricanes.I've also collected some books.Including Dummies guide to weather.It just fascinates me with all the different views and opinions on tropical meteorology.
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If CMC,Nogaps verifie, I am sure that Ike will rejoice as that area has been dry.
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Quoting ncstorm:
I cant believe people are actually believing the CMC model..remember what it stands for..Canadian Model on Crack..the latest GFS drops 94L all together..the doc was smart in not saying where it will end up..


who said anything about us believing the CMC?

just because some posted it? Get real

Ok folks another rule added, we cannot post any forecast models now
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Hello All

Back for another season. Sure could use some rain here in NE fl.
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yes it sure will.....
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I cant believe people are actually believing the CMC model..remember what it stands for..Canadian Model on Crack..the latest GFS drops 94L all together..the doc was smart in not saying where it will end up..
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Quoting pressureman:
another
fly in thr ointment,,,the deepening trough will try to grab it...we are going to see what happens then,,,,,
Be interesting to see if that trough can dislodge the ridge enough.
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Quoting Ivanhater:
Canadian down to 990mb into Pensacola

Florida needs the rain anyway....
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@ post # 60.

Did I mention I was looking into some battery powered halogen-style lighting? I'm thinking it would make a great addition to my hurricane kit....
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another
fly in thr ointment,,,the deepening trough will try to grab it...we are going to see what happens then,,,,,
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Canadian down to 990mb into Pensacola

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Should no trough pick it up, and ridging build in, then yes.

Already the season seems more of a threat than last year.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey washingtonian.... I was just wondering the same thing about the early and prolonged dry here.... Don't forget that to get to the FL coast most storms pass through the Bahamas first....
Hey Baha.Hopefully 2011 will be like 2010.A sleeping giant.But up here it's been rainy and cloudy,and of course down there it's been dry.When it's rainy and cloudy up here where I live and dry where you all live the carribean and southeast U.S often sees sevral landfalls.The trend this year is no different.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Ehhhh I don't see nothing on that to be alarmed about...now If I saw a pinhole.......
i did that because a few days ago i got an email sayin how the image makes things look worse then they are from someone calling me an alarmist so i just put up a warning so i don't get anymore emails
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Quoting starbuck02:


August 13th...you don't have to remind me or anyone in SW Florida.
Friday the 13th
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What model is that one?


Color chart of the Canadian..gives a better picture of the symmetry and rainfall
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Can that track actually happen?
Should no trough pick it up, and ridging build in, then yes.
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I think 94L may have some tricks up its sleeve.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Ehhhh I don't see nothing on that to be alarmed about...now If I saw a pinhole.......
I'm kinda stymied by that dry slot we're in...
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Quoting Ivanhater:
Uh oh



What model is that one?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Watch out IKE, the CMC and NOGAPS are after you. 12z CMC at 144 hours below (remember, this is the CMC).

992 millibars:


Can that track actually happen?
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guys you need to have patience thid thing will drive you crazy..this will make your pull your hairs out....i think we have a good shot of seeing our first tropical depression on wednesday....
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Normally when florida is as dry as you all say it is right now that's not a good sign.You were probally to young to remember May of 2004.Which was the driest on record for the state.Do I need to remind you Floridians what happened that year?.No.So with that being said hopefully Florida will get the rain it needs the natrual way(such as a sea breeze,or afternoon thunderstorms.)Rather than the hard way....


August 13th...you don't have to remind me or anyone in SW Florida.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this is not an alarmists image this is only an enhanced water vapour animation do not be alarmed

Ehhhh I don't see nothing on that to be alarmed about...now If I saw a pinhole.......
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@post #48.

Hey washingtonian.... I was just wondering the same thing about the early and prolonged dry here.... Don't forget that to get to the FL coast most storms pass through the Bahamas first....
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this is not an alarmists image this is only an enhanced water vapour animation do not be alarmed

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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