Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

DID YOU KNOW:

We hadn't had a Cat 5 hurricane in 4 years and We hadn't had a Major hurricane in the Caribbean in 3 years maybe this year we might not be so lucky

2351 LEBANON LEBANON PA 4034 7642 TORNADO IN NORTH ANNVILLE TWSP. - EXTENSIVE DEBRIS (CTP)

0049 3 NW FOLLETT LIPSCOMB TX 3646 10018 OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE IS REPORTING A RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO ON THE GROUND. (AMA)

0050 5 N BOYD BEAVER OK 3677 10082 BRIEF TORNADO AND BECAME RAIN WRAPPED. (AMA)

From NHC's 8pm TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N46W TO 5N48W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE WAVE AMPLIFICATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
DID YOU KNOW:

We hadn't had a Cat 5 hurricane in 4 years and We hadn't had a Major hurricane in the Caribbean in 3 years maybe this year we might not be so lucky

You guys in the Caribbean are definitely overdue for a major hurricane, but a Category 5 not so much.

Is this showing another monsoonal type low that never actually develops? Looks like it goes into the gulf toward the TX coast before dying out. Can't tell if it would have rain with it.

Quoting emcf30:


Very cool animation BSL, thanks for sharing.

My pleasure

Still waiting for rain in the FL Keys. Another teasing evening with outflow from both Cuba and the Everglades.

I got about 30 gallons left of rain water rationed away. The National Weather Service Key West has kicked the rain can down the road to Sunday.

But I suppose I should be careful what I wish for.

... as the mosquito spray truck passes my house ... true ...

ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
721 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FLZ078-077-076-121130-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF...KEY LARGO...MARATHON...KEY WEST
721 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FIRST PERIOD

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 20
PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:

Is this showing another monsoonal type low that never actually develops? Looks like it goes into the gulf toward the TX coast before dying out. Can't tell if it would have rain with it.

no that is a strong Tropical Wave

Testing out for the season...boy would this be nice for FL.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no that is a strong Tropical Wave

Ok thanks. :) Hope it does bring rain up here.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Testing out for the season...boy would this be nice for FL.

Boy would it be!

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hope it does bring rain up here.

Rain? What's that? *ponders for five minutes*

Oh. OH. Rain! I forgot for a second. Now I get it. You're talking about the stuff that falls from the sky as water. Gotcha.

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120247
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011

A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY HAVE BRIEFLY HALTED THE WEAKENING PROCESS. SINCE THEN...
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON WANE. AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ADRIAN HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...OR 275/10. MOST
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ADRIAN WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARD NORTHWEST OR
NORTH. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN LATITUDE SEEMS RATHER
UNLIKELY SINCE ADRIAN IS WEAKENING INTO A SHALLOW SYSTEM RATHER
THAN MAINTAINING VERTICAL INTEGRITY LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN HAS BEEN SHEARED MORE
THAN 200 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING. THE RESULT IS THAT ADRIAN AND ITS SHALLOW REMNANTS ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES ALONG THE EXTREME LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NOW THAT THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...
ADRIAN SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS...A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF MODEST CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CONTINUED
WEAKENING...WITH ADRIAN BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 18-24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 15.8N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 16.1N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 16.7N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1200Z 17.3N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0000Z 18.5N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Quoting KoritheMan:

Rain? What's that? *ponders for five minutes*

Oh. OH. Rain! I forgot for a second. Now I get it. You're talking about the stuff that falls from the sky as water. Gotcha.

Phew! Good I did remember the right word for it. Lol. It has been a while. :)

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AT 29N88W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
DOMINATES THE GULF N OF 22N. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND LOUISIANA...
MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA AT 29N83W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

How about this one:

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ok thanks. :) Hope it does bring rain up here.

and I think I saw the NOGAPS showing the Wave developing a low so the ECMWF and the NOGAPS is showing this strong wave

That did not come out right. Click to see animation
Link

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Phew! Good I did remember the right word for it. Lol. It has been a while. :)

I seriously can't believe the dust bowl of the 1930s was worse than this...

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no that is a strong Tropical Wave

Actually it's the trade winds. Not a low pressure area of any kind, unfortunately. The colors represent wind speed, which makes it look intense, but the trade winds are commonly that strong in the central Caribbean.

*Edit: I was only looking at that one image. Upon examining the whole run, the area of winds propagates WNW, so it would most likely be a tropical wave in that case. My bad.

Evening All.

Sulking tonight. It is June right?

Chile ash cloud hits Tassie, NZ flights.

QANTAS has cancelled 22 flights to and from New Zealand and Tasmania due to a cloud of volcanic ash from South America.

A Qantas spokeswoman said all 14 flights in and out of Tasmania today had been cancelled.

Eight flights between Australia and Wellington, Christchurch and Queenstown had also been grounded, she said.

The cancellations affect about 1500 passengers and Qantas is attempting to contact everyone ahead of their scheduled flight.

"We are doing our best to do a call out to everyone that we can," the spokeswoman said.

Virgin Australia and Air New Zealand, however, will continue to fly into New Zealand and Tasmania.

A Virgin spokeswoman says the airline has altered flights and the height at which they will fly to the island state and New Zealand today.

She said Virgin's flight operations team was working with the Bureau of Meteorology and monitoring the situation.

Air New Zealand said it had no cancellations or delays due to the ash cloud.

The Puyehue volcano in Chile began erupting on June 4, with the initial ash plume reaching above 15,240m.

Last night, strong winds carried the main part of the cloud towards New Zealand, Andrew Tupper, head of the Bureau of Meteorology's Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre in Darwin, said.

The Qantas spokeswoman said staff were monitoring the situation and it was not yet known if the cloud would force further cancellations tomorrow.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Evening All.

Sulking tonight. It is June right?

yes, it is June, but I am never sure of the year. How you guys doing?

Quoting KoritheMan:

I seriously can't believe the dust bowl of the 1930s was worse than this...

trust me, it was bad. Much, much worse than this

There are some estimates of over 25,000 people dying directly due to the dust storms during this period.

The "Black Sunday" Dust storm

Excerpt from Wessels:

The Dust Bowl got its name after Black Sunday, April 14, 1935. More and more dust storms had been blowing up in the years leading up to that day. In 1932, 14 dust storms were recorded on the Plains. In 1933, there were 38 storms. By 1934, it was estimated that 100 million acres of farmland had lost all or most of the topsoil to the winds. By April 1935, there had been weeks of dust storms, but the cloud that appeared on the horizon that Sunday was the worst. Winds were clocked at 60 mph. Then it hit.


This image is from 1934. Black Sunday storm was 1935 previously posted

Quoting twincomanche:
Our cultivation and tillage practices are way more enlightened than back then along with I believe it is not near as dry.

What surprises me is that "The Dust Bowl" was one of the greatest disaster to ever hit this country, and so few are familiar with it. I read "Grapes of Wrath" in 1954 and went to the Library and read everything I could about it. And, I am really not being funny, here, but I was in Germany at the time and read it in German. The many things that were put in place after that disaster are still in place today.

We had a nice little thunderstorm in Metairie this PM. I opened the windows so I could smell all that ozone. But they are saying the heat's on next week again as the high builds in from Texas. We want it partly sunny tomorrow. 3 festivals wrapping up tomorrow in French Quarter. LA Seafood, Zydeco and Creole Tomato Festivals.

Quoting Grothar:
Excerpt from Wessels:

The Dust Bowl got its name after Black Sunday, April 14, 1935. More and more dust storms had been blowing up in the years leading up to that day. In 1932, 14 dust storms were recorded on the Plains. In 1933, there were 38 storms. By 1934, it was estimated that 100 million acres of farmland had lost all or most of the topsoil to the winds. By April 1935, there had been weeks of dust storms, but the cloud that appeared on the horizon that Sunday was the worst. Winds were clocked at 60 mph. Then it hit.


This image is from 1934. Black Sunday storm was 1935 previously posted

How horrible. :( Lets hope that never happens again.

Many people are unaware that the lines of trees which you can still see were done in this manner.

Excerpt from Chrome history site

In April 1935, Bennett was on his way to testify before a Congressional committee about his soil conservation campaign when he learned of a dust storm blowing into the capitol from the western plains. At last, he believed that he would have tangible evidence of the results of bad farming practices. As the dust settled over Washington and blotted out the midday sun, Bennett exclaimed, "This, gentlemen, is what I have been talking about." Congress responded by passing the Soil Conservation Act of 1935. In addition, the Roosevelt administration put its full weight and authority behind the improvement of farming techniques to prevent a recurrence of the Dust Bowl.

President Roosevelt ordered that the Civilian Conservation Corps plant a huge belt of more than 200 million trees from Canada to Abilene, Texas, to break the wind, hold water in the soil, and hold the soil itself in place. The administration also began to educate farmers on soil conservation and anti-erosion techniques, including crop rotation, strip farming, contour plowing, terracing and other beneficial farming practices.

Quoting Grothar:
Many people are unaware that the lines of trees which you can still see were done in this manner.

Excerpt from Chrome history site

In April 1935, Bennett was on his way to testify before a Congressional committee about his soil conservation campaign when he learned of a dust storm blowing into the capitol from the western plains. At last, he believed that he would have tangible evidence of the results of bad farming practices. As the dust settled over Washington and blotted out the midday sun, Bennett exclaimed, "This, gentlemen, is what I have been talking about." Congress responded by passing the Soil Conservation Act of 1935. In addition, the Roosevelt administration put its full weight and authority behind the improvement of farming techniques to prevent a recurrence of the Dust Bowl.

President Roosevelt ordered that the Civilian Conservation Corps plant a huge belt of more than 200 million trees from Canada to Abilene, Texas, to break the wind, hold water in the soil, and hold the soil itself in place. The administration also began to educate farmers on soil conservation and anti-erosion techniques, including crop rotation, strip farming, contour plowing, terracing and other beneficial farming practices.

Wow. That's really cool.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


How horrible. :( Lets hope that never happens again.

If you are from Texas, you might find the excerpt I just posted especially interesting. It involves your state which was also hit very badly during that period.

Quoting Levi32:


Wow. That's really cool.

This would be a very good subject for a paper. I did one in High School and one in college. (Actually is was the same one, but I used bigger words in the second one) It was one of the worst weather related disasters in the U.S. which actually changed the way we live today. I know you will find is fascinating.

Why is it, that whenever I get on a good roll, no one is ever around. :)

Good late evening from NE Fla, ya'll. Good reading back. Love being able to come here, read and learn so much.

The back and forth of questions, comments, and info here is amazing.

A few brownies left, help yourselves, finish them off. I already ate all the edges.

Quoting Grothar:
Why is it, that whenever I get on a good roll, no one is ever around. :)

Because no one remembers to refresh the page, like me :(

Quoting Grothar:
Many people are unaware that the lines of trees which you can still see were done in this manner.

Excerpt from Chrome history site

In April 1935, Bennett was on his way to testify before a Congressional committee about his soil conservation campaign when he learned of a dust storm blowing into the capitol from the western plains. At last, he believed that he would have tangible evidence of the results of bad farming practices. As the dust settled over Washington and blotted out the midday sun, Bennett exclaimed, "This, gentlemen, is what I have been talking about." Congress responded by passing the Soil Conservation Act of 1935. In addition, the Roosevelt administration put its full weight and authority behind the improvement of farming techniques to prevent a recurrence of the Dust Bowl.

President Roosevelt ordered that the Civilian Conservation Corps plant a huge belt of more than 200 million trees from Canada to Abilene, Texas, to break the wind, hold water in the soil, and hold the soil itself in place. The administration also began to educate farmers on soil conservation and anti-erosion techniques, including crop rotation, strip farming, contour plowing, terracing and other beneficial farming practices.

My father was with the CCC and helped plant those trees.....I've heard the story many times. Appreciate that Grothar......times were hard then..

Quoting twincomanche:
Drought comes and goes in various parts of the Country and always have. We need to understand this and learn how to deal with it painful as it seems. Knowledge really helps in how to deal with the dry periods.

Yes, very true. They know through studies now, that droughts like that happened previously in that area and will happen again. If someone has enough interst, they should look up the Ogallala Aquifer and see what a delicate balance we must maintain to keep our farming land productive.

here is the link


Link

Quoting twincomanche:
OK I am Swiss cheese.

Lol. Me too I guess.

Dr. Grother, thanks for that insight on the Dust Bowl, your humor, all the great info and knowledge you give to this blog.
I never post here, I jusr lurk but you are on of the reasons I stay.

Quoting Grothar:
Why is it, that whenever I get on a good roll, no one is ever around. :)

Dr. Grother, thanks for that insight on the Dust Bowl, your humor, all the great info and knowledge you give to this blog.
I never post here, I just lurk but you are on of the reasons I stay.

Quoting Grothar:
Why is it, that whenever I get on a good roll, no one is ever around. :)

I'm around. Just thought you were around well before the dust bowl.

Quoting Grothar:
Why is it, that whenever I get on a good roll, no one is ever around. :)

I read your posts, and I appreciate you bringing these facts to the blog.

Thank you, Kind and Gentle Gro. Kudos. :)