June 2011: another month of exceptional extremes for the U.S.
June 2011 was another month of remarkable extremes over the U.S. Overall, it was the 26th warmest and 19th driest June for the lower 48 states, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Extreme heat gripped much of the South, with Texas experiencing its hottest June on record, and 13 other states recording top-ten hottest Junes. Accompanying the heat was intense drought--New Mexico had its driest June on record, and four other states had top-ten driest Junes. While the southern Plains' 1950s drought of record is unsurpassed in terms of duration, the current drought in parts of Texas is more intense than the 1950s drought when measured by the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. The heat and drought contributed to the worst fire year in U.S. history, with 4.8 million acres burned by the end of the month, more than double the average from the previous ten years.
While the South baked and burned, California experienced its wettest June on record, and heavier than normal precipitation and prolonged snowmelt during the spring caused June flooding in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and Washington. For the 3-month period April-May-June, the NOAA Climate Extremes Index indicated that it was the most extreme such period on record in the U.S. for precipitation, as measured by the percent area of the U.S. experiencing top 10% wettest or driest conditions. Heavy 1-day precipitation events were also at an all-time high during April-May-June 2011. Data for the Climate Extremes Index goes back to 1910.
Figure 1. Exceptional heat gripped most of the South during June 2011, with Texas experiencing its hottest June in 117 years of record keeping, and 13 other states recording a top-ten hottest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. Exceptionally dry conditions accompanied the intense heat in the South during June 2011, with New Mexico experiencing its driest June in 117 years of record keeping, and four other states recording a top-ten driest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Tornado activity died down in June
According to data from the Storm Prediction Center, there were 177 preliminary tornado reports during June, which is below the national average for the month. On June 1st, a strong tornado tracked 39 miles across Massachusetts, marking the second longest tornado track on record for the state.
The Atlantic is quiet
A tropical wave near 10°N, 55°W, about 500 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph, and will bring heavy rain to the southern Lesser Antilles and the northeast coast of South America on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind shear over the wave is low, 5 - 10 knots, but the wave is too close to the Equator to leverage Earth's spin in time for development. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
The NOGAPS models is predicting that a strong tropical disturbance could develop in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Sunday, similar to how Tropical Storm Arlene developed at the end of June. The latest runs of the other reliable models do not predict any tropical cyclone development of note over the next seven days, though the GFS model was showing development of a system off the coast of Africa this week, in its run from Sunday night.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Even Here in WU,
Link
Click on animate and copy to blog...
Gfs want to make the syteme ride the coast of Japan as a very strong typhoon not good!!!!!!Poor japan, can they get a break?
Well, if I want to, I can find vertical shear forecasts for the Atlantic, for one thing. I also have no trouble at all in finding other models for the Atlantic, whereas all I really have for the WPAC is the GFS.
On the ECMWF website, you can get the model forecasts for Asia/WPAC. ECMWF ensemble mean model forecasts for Asia/WPAC, ECMWF deterministic model forecasts for Asia/WPAC
no problem
Specially for Tom's link Database...
I don't recall PSU having Western Pacific data before. Is this new?
Word.
I would not say that GFS is better, it shows it making a short landfall in the same place then going back offshore and riding just off shore.
Looking peaked.
I hope you go to jail..you should never posts anyone's name or address without their permission..I have reported your post! Why its still up makes me question if people are even minusing the post. WU and whoever those bloggers need to prosecute you and anyone else affilated with your master plan..this is the second time I have seen this mess on this blog where people's personal information was put out there..
I don't think it takes into account that the SST's are below 25C on the north side of Japan. That should make even the strongest storm weaken quickly.
Uh someone post sombodys adress? wow, you did a good job taking that off!
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
REGION...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THE
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE /POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM/ OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OBVIOUSLY REMAINS WITH THE
STRENGTH...INTENSITY...AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF ANY SYSTEM THAT MAY
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON.
That's why I never post anything personal that later can make me a "slave", if it is used by anyone incorrectly....
I don't know how many internet users, trust and post everything, photos, name, tel. number in Facebook and Twitter...
Well I have been talking about that for the past 48 hours now. I feel certain that this will be our next area of concern.
Just gotta know where to look :P
Try this.
As for wind shear...I don't care about the model forecasts for that really. Forecasters can do just about as good of a job by using water vapor imagery, and if you have access to a 200mb level model forecast then that's easy to extrapolate shear with as well.
Thank god you didn't suggest Accuweather Pro. That stuff is expensive I hear, even though it offers many benefits.
Yes, one can extrapolate shear from water vapor imagery and whatnot. I've done so before. I just like to have a little complimentary material to go along with it. But perhaps I've been spoiled by computers? ;)
No idea. I have whoever said it on ignore. Either that, or the entire post was deleted.
I don't pay for AccuPro anymore because the models aren't worth it (to me). They have some nice stuff, but I do fine without.
How much did it cost when you were paying for it? I've considered it when/if I get a job.
SSI has nothing better to do tonight.
Having him in your home is a near guarantee that you won't experience much more than tropical storm conditions.
Whatcha don't want is for him to be about an hour's drive from your place, cuz that means there's a 50/50 chance that you're gonna experience the worst of the hurricane.
He may be a chaser, but he ain't dumb.
http://cio.gsfc.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/mu ltimedia/gallery/iss028e015807.html
Atlantis Approaches Station for Docking
ISS028-E-015807 (10 July 2011) --- The space shuttle Atlantis is seen over the Bahamas prior to a perfect docking with the International Space Station at 10:07 a.m. (CDT). Part of a Russian Progress spacecraft which is docked to the station is in the foreground.
$25/month, or $250/year.
WUmail, Mark.
You can track Atlantis and the ISS here
Thanks, Keep!
Last year yes, this year, probably not.
250 a year is expensive for stuff you can find free (for the lost part)
They have since add two new computer modes 1.ECMWF EPS 2.ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System, It comes quite handy :)
I do miss Joe Bastardi tho :( he was a bit crazy but he knew long range forecasting like no other.
hey thanks for clearing that up, it makes sense now
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Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MA-ON (T1106)
12:00 PM JST July 13 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea Near Minami tori shima
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Ma-On (985 hPa) located at 19.3N 152.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots
Dvorak Intensity:
Gale Force Winds
================
250 NM from the center in north quadrant
200 NM from the center in south quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 20.5N 148.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 21.7N 144.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 22.8N 139.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Viewing: 1101 - 1151
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