June 2011: another month of exceptional extremes for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2011

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June 2011 was another month of remarkable extremes over the U.S. Overall, it was the 26th warmest and 19th driest June for the lower 48 states, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Extreme heat gripped much of the South, with Texas experiencing its hottest June on record, and 13 other states recording top-ten hottest Junes. Accompanying the heat was intense drought--New Mexico had its driest June on record, and four other states had top-ten driest Junes. While the southern Plains' 1950s drought of record is unsurpassed in terms of duration, the current drought in parts of Texas is more intense than the 1950s drought when measured by the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. The heat and drought contributed to the worst fire year in U.S. history, with 4.8 million acres burned by the end of the month, more than double the average from the previous ten years.

While the South baked and burned, California experienced its wettest June on record, and heavier than normal precipitation and prolonged snowmelt during the spring caused June flooding in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, and Washington. For the 3-month period April-May-June, the NOAA Climate Extremes Index indicated that it was the most extreme such period on record in the U.S. for precipitation, as measured by the percent area of the U.S. experiencing top 10% wettest or driest conditions. Heavy 1-day precipitation events were also at an all-time high during April-May-June 2011. Data for the Climate Extremes Index goes back to 1910.


Figure 1. Exceptional heat gripped most of the South during June 2011, with Texas experiencing its hottest June in 117 years of record keeping, and 13 other states recording a top-ten hottest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Exceptionally dry conditions accompanied the intense heat in the South during June 2011, with New Mexico experiencing its driest June in 117 years of record keeping, and four other states recording a top-ten driest June. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Tornado activity died down in June
According to data from the Storm Prediction Center, there were 177 preliminary tornado reports during June, which is below the national average for the month. On June 1st, a strong tornado tracked 39 miles across Massachusetts, marking the second longest tornado track on record for the state.

The Atlantic is quiet
A tropical wave near 10°N, 55°W, about 500 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph, and will bring heavy rain to the southern Lesser Antilles and the northeast coast of South America on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind shear over the wave is low, 5 - 10 knots, but the wave is too close to the Equator to leverage Earth's spin in time for development. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

The NOGAPS models is predicting that a strong tropical disturbance could develop in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Sunday, similar to how Tropical Storm Arlene developed at the end of June. The latest runs of the other reliable models do not predict any tropical cyclone development of note over the next seven days, though the GFS model was showing development of a system off the coast of Africa this week, in its run from Sunday night.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 7544:
might get interesting fo se fla if this holds

Link
looks like the models want to develop the tropical wave that will come off the african coast that dr masters also mentions. looks like Se florida might have something to watch towards the 24-27 of this month
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213. Jax82
Quoting presslord:


Jax...Is that graphic available for our coast? (Charleston SC)


Here is the link I use, it shows the worlds ocean temps, you just click on the area of the world you want to see. Link
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Anthony Bourdain in Cuba tonightLink
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hearing the reports from the majority of Texas, they need a TS stat or they'll dry up.

Dried up a long time ago. Now just trying not to burn up or blow away.
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Quoting Jax82:
You can see the how the Gulf sea temps cooled slightly in the Bay of Campeche as Arlene swirled through. Really starting to heat up along the Northern Gulf Coast now.



Jax...Is that graphic available for our coast? (Charleston SC)
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206. Jax82
You can see the how the Gulf sea temps cooled slightly in the Bay of Campeche as Arlene swirled through. Really starting to heat up along the Northern Gulf Coast now.

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Quoting presslord:


Not once...but twice...you have been specific as to which Carolina coast you're referring....Excellent!!!! A+++++
Possible action off the Carolinas..........oh,,,,hello Presslord....
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
Low to form off the NC coast in the next 120 hours. Then it is suppose to move south west and make landfall along the South East Georgia coast.

Link


been too long since we had a landfalling hurricane..we came close last year with Earl..would be interesting to see if the GFS will be consistent
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14451
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Low to form off the NC coast in the next 120 hours. Then it is suppose to move south west and make landfall along the South East Georgia coast.

Link


Not once...but twice...you have been specific as to which Carolina coast you're referring....Excellent!!!! A+++++
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Low to form off the NC coast in the next 120 hours. Then it is suppose to move south west and make landfall along the South East Georgia coast.

Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
200. srada
A postive NAO means fewer tropical development

GFS 12Z


ECWMF 00Z


Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
199. Jax82
.
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GFS showing a possible storm on Sunday off NC coast

Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
196. 7544
might get interesting fo se fla if this holds

Link
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Quoting islander101010:
going down with the ship classic


yep but that is the best way to go.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Both the GFS ensembles and the UKMET ensembles forecast the MJO picking up strongly in the next 2-3 days.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting wolftribe2009:


I continue to hold to my prediction of 3 storms for July. I know what happened last time I tried to throw out my original prediction. Arlene hit in the area I was expecting her to hit. So if I am wrong than I will eat crow but I am not going to predict things like NOAA and change the prediction every 12 hours.
going down with the ship classic
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Quoting hydrus:
If this did occur, it could be a potent storm..And it would raise some eyebrows in Miami fer sure..



shhhhhh! We don't need to bring up images of Andrew, Katrina and Rita in this area over the last couple of decades *Shivers at the thought*
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting Bordonaro:

The last two droughts that broke did so in EPIC fashion, with HORRIFIC FLOODING!!!!


Well it is my understanding that droughts cause the ground to harden and when the rain comes it doesn't have time to soak into the ground. Take Las Vegas' 100 year flood of 1999 for instance.

Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
If this did occur, it could be a potent storm..And it would raise some eyebrows in Miami fer sure..
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That large area of disturbed weather about to hit Central America is actually looking very good considering the imminent interaction with land; it really blossomed as it entered a patch of low sheer just before running into Honduras/Nicaragua and the like.....Probably gonna cause some major flooding for them from the look of things at the moment in spite of no development per NHC.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


YAY! you just helped me relocate my favorite computer models from a couple years ago. I have been looking for it for ages. Thank you for the link.


Glad I could help.
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edit: removed.
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Vorticity @ 1500z



Now @ 1800Z

Looks to be moving NW and still over water.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
jasonweatherman2010:

Yes that gulf is on fire. The drought all along the southern Gulf coast is only re-intensifying all the SST anomilies from the north to the south through the Gulf!

Luckily it's been quite so far as it should be, but come August and on I do not know if we will be so lucky.

I wonder if anyone can find a year that had hotter Gulf temps other than 2005, and frankly it's debatalbe on whether or not 2011 is hotter than 05 in the Gulf.

All I have to say is we don't need a repeat of the killer I, K and R storms in the Gulf. However, it may happen anyway!!!
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183. srada
the CMC with development off the East Coast of Florida

Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



NCEP


YAY! you just helped me relocate my favorite computer models from a couple years ago. I have been looking for it for ages. Thank you for the link.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
jasonweatherman2010:

Yes that gulf is on fire. The drought all along the southern Gulf coast is only re-intensifying all the SST anomilies from the north to the south through the Gulf!

Luckily it's been quite so far as it should be, but come August and on I do not know if we will be so lucky.

I wonder if anyone can find a year that had hotter Gulf temps other than 2005, and frankly it's debatable on whether or not 2011 is hotter than 05 in the Gulf.
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Quoting wolftribe2009:


That is true but isn't it always the case? You need drought relief and it will only come at a price. Our droughts in South West Georgia sure do and when we get the rain it also comes with Tornadoes. The weather can be pretty cruel at times. I pray for rainy clouds for TX and calm winds during those rains :-)

The last two droughts that broke did so in EPIC fashion, with HORRIFIC FLOODING!!!!
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
hot water in the GOM i see water temp around 90F WOW LETS HOPE NO HURRICANE GO IN THE GOM!!


Keep in mind that it is still Mid-July and I think wishing for a hurricane not to enter that part of the gulf is wishful thinking. The gulf is forecasted to be the most above region in the Atlantic this year for Hurricanes. This is just the result of record heat for the Southern States over the past month.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
Quoting Bordonaro:

Eventually the drought will break. It always does. HOWEVER, I do not WANT a major hurricane to hit TX to do this..


That is true but isn't it always the case? You need drought relief and it will only come at a price. Our droughts in South West Georgia sure do and when we get the rain it also comes with Tornadoes. The weather can be pretty cruel at times. I pray for rainy clouds for TX and calm winds during those rains :-)
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
I understand why the NHC gave the WC disturbance a 0% chance. Though the newest shear/vorticity map shows a rapid organization with the disturbance. Noting a new Anticyclone over it along with a stronger vorticity blob. It would have been a bit better if they upped it to 10%, but I understand why the NHC has it at 0%. It's just too close to land or maybe even on land. Course we can't forget Author in 2008, developed on land haha.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hearing the reports from the majority of Texas, they need a TS stat or they'll dry up.
TX is in the 3RD worst drought since 1898. Things are REAL bad in the Panhandle, East, Central, and SE TX. Only the DFW area and the Lower Rio Grande Valley are in slightly better shape..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS shows TC development off the Yucatan, two waves that attempt to develop off Africa and a system off the US East Coast.


I continue to hold to my prediction of 3 storms for July. I know what happened last time I tried to throw out my original prediction. Arlene hit in the area I was expecting her to hit. So if I am wrong than I will eat crow but I am not going to predict things like NOAA and change the prediction every 12 hours.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
159 CybrTeddy "I don't get the point of the NHC mentioning either system if development isn't expected from either system."

Area Of Interest -- NHC's way of telling the public, "We're already aware. We're keeping our eyes on it."
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Bordonaro:
All I know is TX NEEDS rain. Hoping for some Tropical moisture at the very least sometime very SOON!!!!


Hearing the reports from the majority of Texas, they need a TS stat or they'll dry up.
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Quoting txjac:



Maybe everyone on the blog could just spit our way? I'll take anything!

Eventually the drought will break. It always does. HOWEVER, I do not WANT a major hurricane to hit TX to do this..
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Quoting wolftribe2009:
progressive, where did you get the forecast model for 384 hours? I have seen a GFS version that looks like that but it doesn't have (L) and pressures on it.



NCEP
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS shows TC development off the Yucatan, two waves that attempt to develop off Africa and a system off the US East Coast.

THANK goodness!!! Nothing too wild, just plenty of rain!!!
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168. txjac
Quoting Bordonaro:
All I know is TX NEEDS rain. Hoping for some Tropical moisyure at the very least sometime very SOON!!!!



Maybe everyone on the blog could just spit our way? I'll take anything!
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12z GFS shows TC development off the Yucatan, two waves that attempt to develop off Africa and a system off the US East Coast.
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All I know is TX NEEDS rain. Hoping for some Tropical moisture at the very least sometime very SOON!!!!
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The GFS has development near The Outer Banks in a week...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.