Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:13 PM GMT on July 15, 2011

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June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.

Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.

U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.


Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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Quoting scott39:
Too much rain and not enough time!



dran
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1461. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:





coool you get any thing?
Too much rain and not enough time!
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This blob has moved half way down the peninsula since early this morning, if it keeps cruising at this speed it will be off Miami by noon tomorrow.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
Bouy data east of the Cape updated...Pressure still rising but winds picked up a little bit from the last hour:

Station 41010
NDBC
Location: 28.906N 78.471W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 17 Jul 2011 02:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 ktSignificant Wave Height: 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.01 in and rising
Air Temperature: 76.1 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F


The prior wind reading an hour ago:

Winds: SSE (160) at 5.8 kt gusting to 7.8 kt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1457. Patrap
42 years this morning, post Launch by 3plus hours, a Ballet en route to Luna



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1456. scott39
Quoting taco2me61:


Unless something happens to make 98L turn towards the North or east then I would say yes GOM Bound

Taco :o)
I think that something is becoming less likely by the hour.
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Quoting scott39:
Sounds like what you see on maps,is that 98L is more GOM bound and we need to watch this closely for the next 48.


Yeah, pretty much.
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Quoting scott39:
I went fishing at the Gulf today and I thought I was standing in a warm pool!





coool you get any thing?
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1453. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Let's see when it hits the water what it does.Certainly,the CV season is not far away as we are now past mid July.


We are getting there.
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1452. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
all so the water teampers in the gulf is HOT!
I went fishing at the Gulf today and I thought I was standing in a warm pool!
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Quoting scott39:
Sounds like what you see on maps,is that 98L is more GOM bound and we need to watch this closely for the next 48.


Unless something happens to make 98L turn towards the North or east then I would say yes GOM Bound

Taco :o)
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well this is interesting.



Let's see when it hits the water what it does.Certainly,the CV season is not far away as we are now past mid July.
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1449. xcool
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Quoting JLPR2:


Head-on Taz XD



LOL
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all so the water teampers in the gulf is HOT!
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1446. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:




my head hurts now from looking at that


Head-on Taz XD
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1445. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes, but if it takes an out to sea path as the models currently predict (which I find unlikely btw, as water vapor imagery and synoptic steering data from CIMSS suggests that ridging is quickly building to the north), vertical shear will be a little less conducive as it will increase quicker. If it takes a Gulfbound path, conditions will be relatively favorable.
Sounds like what you see on maps,is that 98L is more GOM bound and we need to watch this closely for the next 48.
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1444. xcool





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Quoting taco2me61:


At the speed it is moving I would say it will be crossing Key West FL in the AM


Taco :o)



cool
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well this is interesting.





my head hurts now from looking at that
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yup



i cant wait too see what this looks like in the AM


At the speed it is moving I would say it will be crossing Key West FL in the AM


Taco :o)
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1440. JLPR2
Well this is interesting.

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1438. xcool
lmaoo
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1437. emcf30
Quoting FrankZapper:
That's a neat little low off the Cape Tonight.

Some anti Obama vibes on the blog tonight. Be respectful. I hear his daughter blogs here regularly. Her handle is IncreaseTaxesWindyGirl







LOL
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Quoting scott39:
Is that forecasted to become more favorable?


Yes, but if it takes an out to sea path as the models currently predict (which I find unlikely btw, as water vapor imagery and synoptic steering data from CIMSS suggests that ridging is quickly building to the north), vertical shear will be a little less conducive as it will increase quicker. If it takes a Gulfbound path, conditions will be relatively favorable.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Definately moving south fast...



yup



i cant wait too see what this looks like in the AM
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Quoting FrankZapper:
That's a neat little low off the Cape Tonight.

Some anti Obama vibes on the blog tonight. Be respectful. I hear his daughter blogs here regularly. Her handle is IncreaseTaxesWindyGirl







This is so true :o)

hahahahaha

Taco :o)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
the faster this thing moves S the faster 98L braks a way from the front so may be by AM it will be gone from the front


Definately moving south fast...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
That's a neat little low off the Cape Tonight.

Some anti Obama vibes on the blog tonight. Be respectful. I hear his daughter blogs here regularly. Her handle is IncreaseTaxesWindyGirl











LOL
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1430. xcool
Tazmanian nope sir :)
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1429. scott39
What I dont understand are the tracks of 98L. Its going to have to put on the brakes, make a hard left..or go back due N ??? Please help!
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1426. xcool
jasonweatherman2011 cool person
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Quoting scott39:
What would put 98L in the GOM?


Big high pressure system to the north of 98L is digging in its heels and could block the Atlantic route. I could see this moving into central florida and inhancing precip over the state during the couple of days.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Indeed. When/if 98L detaches from the front, we will definitely need to monitor it.



yup
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1423. Patrap
What is beginning to become clear is the overall envelope Balance and structure forming as it slowly slides S by Ssw.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1422. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Looks like it's exposed somewhat to the northwest of the center due to northwesterly shear associated with the decaying front.
Is that forecasted to become more favorable?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



at once this front dies watch out


Indeed. When/if 98L detaches from the front, we will definitely need to monitor it.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i will never like Accuweather there suck of telling about the weather.
Just don't give Don Bastardi any of your money.
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1419. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:




if you look at the rader you can see it spining vary well
I looked at that Taz, but I still cant make out how far S the COC is. I see the spin but where is the center cordinates?
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1418. Patrap
Gulf of Mexico - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop re-loaded

Check the Boxes MSLP, Fronts, and SST's
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting KoritheMan:


Looks like it's exposed somewhat to the northwest of the center due to northwesterly shear associated with the decaying front.



at once this front dies watch out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Is the COC under the blob or to the NW of it?


Looks like it's exposed somewhat to the northwest of the center due to northwesterly shear associated with the decaying front.
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1414. emcf30
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i saw cloud top at -70


Yea the blob is starting to get cold for sure
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Quoting scott39:
Is the COC under the blob or to the NW of it?




if you look at the rader you can see it spining vary well
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.