Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan
June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.
Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.
U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.
Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.
Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.
I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.
Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz
Reader Comments
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This is true. It will have to detach from the frontal boundary to truly organize. But, it is possible the system could do this over this weekend.
Actual Link: http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/07/15/larse n.arctic.ice.wars/index.html
I'll ust wu-mail you.
OK Aquak9.
Looks like we may have something to watch just off our coast if the Low can detach from the stalled frontal boundary aquak.
Hubby's been working on the 3D radar on the RainmanWeather site. It's looking good and you can see the detachment trying to happen. Overhead clouds tell a different story, but I bet that's gonna change by tomorrow.
Don't wanna link to the RainmanWeather site for the 3D radar, cause I don't wanna get in trouble for spam. But just go there and check it out, grab a loop.
No model support either for this to develop.
Can you WU-mail me a link please. I would like to bookmark it.
I think the 6z GFS had a weak low just sitting there. That's the only model I know of even showing anything.
If something does spinup, it more than likely will have high surface pressures too due to it is in a area of high pressure.
The area is elongated. It should consolidate to the surface over water east of N Florida where the most convection is over the weekend. GFS supports it. Should be fun to watch as the system should not pose a serious threat to anyone.
And that stationary front isn't going anywhere, so it could easily just sit here for days. I will note that the 0z CMC did show a weak stationary low pressure going nowhere.
Maybe a nice rain maker.
No, I agree with you 100%...if it breaks free, then I'll be more curious.
JTWC 5 day track for Ma-On starting to look better for Japan
Still pretty nasty, but its better looking now than it was looking before.
There's more than likely a surface low with this according to the latest ASCAT, but its very very weak, convection is already fading too, and its attached to a trough.
Yeah, a Cat 2-3 going close to Kyoto and Tokyo is still nasty.
Pin-hole eye?
20-30kts of wind shear
And increasing
As long as they stay over open water like most of last years systems.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 161147
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011
DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA
BROADER TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVER THE CWA KEEPING THE SEA BREEZES CLOSER TO
THE COAST. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT A WEAK LOW
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT AND DRIFT
WEST INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...THEN THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA FOCUSING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.
SO AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS
THE BOTH SEA BREEZES PUSHES VERY SLOWLY INLAND. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN THE POPS
ALONG THE EAST COAST MIGHT HAVE TO BE RAISE IN LATER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY.
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