Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:13 PM GMT on July 15, 2011

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June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.

Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.

U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.


Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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1763. aquak9
Quoting FLdewey:
Bright and Sunny in Indialantic this morning... not sure for how long.


Good morning from Jax, Fl. Bright blue to the west, scattered high strips of bacon clouds to the east, a little darker to the south. (waves goodbye to any rain chances)

The only way this could been more heartbreaking woulda been if this happened offa the TX coast.
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Quoting reedzone:
I dissagree with the models, trends show this moving inland between Central Florida to South Carolina. I don't think this will sweep out to sea as everyone thinks.

I'm waiting for the steering currents to pick it up, once that happens then we'll know where it's going.
The NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts Shows the 1016mb steering current nicely.
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Quoting WxLogic:
In regards models... here is what they have so far on 98L:



East coast rider, and given that it's in the gulf stream that may help it intensify a little more rapidly.
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Quoting scott39:
Is there a H blocking 98L from going N right now?


Would seem so.

SW N ATLC...
THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 25N...WHILE A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALONG 28N W OF 65W...AND TO A
1015 MB LOW E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28.5N79W MOVING SLOWLY S.
THE FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE N OF THE LOW AND FRONT.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PUSHES BACK TO THE N.
THE RIDGE WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD THROUGH THU. THE LOW IS FORECAST
BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO TRACK MORE TO THE W AND NW MON AND MON NIGHT AND TURN NE TUE
BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. THE
HURRICANE BAM MODELS TAKE THE LOW MORE TO THE SW AND W TOWARDS
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. WILL FORECAST LOW TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...THEN CARRY A TROUGH FEATURE EXTENDING TO PART OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER TUE INTO WED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS FEATURE
TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STAY
TUNED FOR ANY POSSIBLE NEW INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
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Quoting reedzone:
I dissagree with the models, trends show this moving inland between Central Florida to South Carolina. I don't think this will sweep out to sea as everyone thinks.
I say it skirts the outer banks.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Irene was the lonely only, barely.



I remember Irene, it was originally forecasted to brush or make landfall in VA. I remember sitting on the edge for a few days until the track shifted east.
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1757. scott39
Quoting FLdewey:
Bright and Sunny in Indialantic this morning... not sure for how long.
How far are you from the Sebastian Inlet? Great fishing and a great place for kids to swim.
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1756. guygee
I see a mid/upper-level shortwave forming off the SE coast south of the Carolinas. Like most everything else this summer it will rotate SW and then W around the continental high. I think it will nudge our Bahamas blob a little further SE where it will fester for awhile. Slow development, little movement in the immediate future.
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I dissagree with the models, trends show this moving inland between Central Florida to South Carolina. I don't think this will sweep out to sea as everyone thinks.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Bright and Sunny in Indialantic this morning... not sure for how long.


I didn't realize that's where you were....it's one of my favorite places...
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Quoting FLdewey:
Bright and Sunny in Indialantic this morning... not sure for how long.



Ayyyy, Jupiter as well, nearly perfect...


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1752. ncstorm
The GFDL actually takes it into NC

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
1751. ncstorm
The HWRF takes it almost in SC/NC but then takes it out to sea

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
Ah well, there goes the beach today, could still go, but not as much fun fully overcast and bleak. That's what I get for mowing the lawn yesterday.

Thanks for the image sunline, looks like we have two days of overcast/ rain.

Still, we cannot complain with so many suffering from drought/ heat.
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Morning All.

1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 17/1615Z
D. 29.2N 78.6W
E. 17/1815Z TO 17/2345Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Recon takes off @ 12:15EST. 98L looking a little spry this morning however, looking at the models, 98L may just be viewed from a distance. Should enhance rain chances for the peninsula.

Steering



Steering currents very weak, hence the squashed spider look from the models.

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Quoting bajelayman2:


Yes, sporadic but heavy at times during the night. Not rained this am where I am but cloudy and darkish for 8:45am. My wife did see a really pretty lighting once too, said it had the whole sky lit up purple for an extended flash.

I dont have a gauge, but barometric pressure must be down, feel it close.

From what I see here, I doubt this will just break up easily. Coupled with what I see on satellite, I think this is to watch, even if the guys are saying it is entering TUTT etc and will not develop.
It seems to have held together very well since yesterday and convection has increased and deepened over the past few hours.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8429
1746. scott39
Is there a H blocking 98L from going N right now?
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Quoting IKE:

Most likely headed out to sea.
if it were sept i'd say sure
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4892
1743. IKE

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Most likely headed out to sea.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting SETexas74:
What are 98L's steering currents? It seems that the models were previously split, but now they send it north into Florida/Georgia
1016mb is the steering current.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
Quoting scott39:
What time is the next update? TIA

ATCF nominally updates every six hours--0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC (except when things are really cranking), but they actually come in a largish window from about 1:20 to 3:00 ET, and 7:20 to 9:00 ET (both AM and PM).
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Quoting AussieStorm:

would of preferred another yellow, cause that's a straight red. Go USA
you know those japanese girls are going to be coming out strong going to be a battle but still its just a game. keeping an eye out on the windwd system anyones got a rain gauge?
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4892
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What are 98L's steering currents? It seems that the models were previously split, but now they send it north into Florida/Georgia
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1736. scott39
Modules are split.
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Quoting superpete:

Looks like it is right over you now? Did Barbados get much rain last night?


Yes, sporadic but heavy at times during the night. Not rained this am where I am but cloudy and darkish for 8:45am. My wife did see a really pretty lighting once too, said it had the whole sky lit up purple for an extended flash.

I dont have a gauge, but barometric pressure must be down, feel it close.

From what I see here, I doubt this will just break up easily. Coupled with what I see on satellite, I think this is to watch, even if the guys are saying it is entering TUTT etc and will not develop.
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1733. Dakster
Dewey the pretty lines changed... I guess the mets like the GFS now?
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1732. Dakster
Hopefully some areas that need the rain get it. I am not wishing for a hurricane to hit, but if it could drift over Central Florida and across the GOM to texas it would be nice.
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1730. scott39
Quoting Neapolitan:

Nah, just one. Here's the entire history file:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107171220
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011071518, , BEST, 0, 313N, 804W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071600, , BEST, 0, 310N, 800W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071606, , BEST, 0, 307N, 797W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071612, , BEST, 0, 304N, 794W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 298N, 791W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 98, 2011071700, , BEST, 0, 293N, 789W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 98, 2011071706, , BEST, 0, 287N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071712, , BEST, 0, 282N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
What time is the next update? TIA
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1729. scott39
Quoting IKE:
I've had almost 4 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. Looks like it's finally drying out some now.
Buckets of rain here too. Im glad I got the grass cut before it came, I think its grown another 3 inches in 3 days!!
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1728. BDAwx
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Quoting islander101010:
he pulls the orange card on 98! go usa

would of preferred another yellow, cause that's a straight red. Go USA
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Quoting scott39:
Has it dropped 4 mb?

Nah, just one. Here's the entire history file:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107171220
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011071518, , BEST, 0, 313N, 804W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071600, , BEST, 0, 310N, 800W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071606, , BEST, 0, 307N, 797W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071612, , BEST, 0, 304N, 794W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 298N, 791W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 98, 2011071700, , BEST, 0, 293N, 789W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 98, 2011071706, , BEST, 0, 287N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071712, , BEST, 0, 282N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Quoting bajelayman2:
Wave at 60 W, 13 N is the one to watch. This will be the next storm.

Looks like it is right over you now? Did Barbados get much rain last night?
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1723. scott39
Quoting Neapolitan:
Still at 20 knots and a very non-low 1010 mb:

AL, 98, 2011071712, , BEST, 0, 282N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Has it dropped 4 mb?
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1722. IKE
I've had almost 4 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. Looks like it's finally drying out some now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1721. IKE

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Still at 20 knots and a very non-low 1010 mb:

AL, 98, 2011071712, , BEST, 0, 282N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Quoting scott39:
I think 98L will make it to at least a TD maybe even a TS. Conditions are somewhat favorable with becoming more favorable. Why wouldnt it?

If it gets into the GOM as a TD i think it will become our first hurricane
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
1718. scott39
I think 98L will make it to at least a TD maybe even a TS. Conditions are somewhat favorable with becoming more favorable. Why wouldnt it?
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Quoting bajelayman2:
Wave at 60 W, 13 N is the one to watch. This will be the next storm.


i am currently in the path of it i am located in the island of Grenada and winds and rain have increased alot i notice that the actual center of heat energy is located just west of me and notice the structure of deep moisture wit it!
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Quoting bajelayman2:
Wave at 60 W, 13 N is the one to watch. This will be the next storm.


There's rotation, but everyone seems to be ignoring it. I guess lots like it just fizzle out.
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Wave at 60 W, 13 N is the one to watch. This will be the next storm.
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what time exactly will the hurricane hunter be leaving?
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1713. scott39
It looks like 98L has really slowed down in the last 6 to 8 hours.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.