Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan
June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.
Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.
U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.
Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.
Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.
I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.
Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz
Reader Comments
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Can someone help me with this please. I know this is the latest steering map but can you please tell me if this shows that whatever is in the SW Caribbean would move NW and whatever is south of Panama would move towards the SW Caribbean ?
GFS 12z Potential Vorticity reveals the wave axis over Nigeria
However, this image is over 9 hours old. In the meantime the wave has traveled quite a ways, latest satellite imagery (20z) reveals the wave further much further west
Anyway, development still looks unlikely, but it's something to keep an eye on in 2-3 days when it enters the Atlantic. ECMWF Ensemble members are showing a little region of disagreement which indicates some ensemble members are trying to develop something.
Still, only one standard deviation isn't much, and shortly after, the ensembles drop the dispute.
Category 2 typhoon predicted passing over Tokyo Bay. This is not looking good right now.
Developing tropical system in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (that's south of the Bay of Campeche)?
Seems it keeps trending eastward with track however over the past couple of days. With any luck maybe they'll avoid a landfall.
Can someone help me with this please. I know this is the latest steering map but can you please tell me if this shows that whatever is in the SW Caribbean would move NW and whatever is south of Panama would move towards the SW Caribbean ?
ohhh ok, wow I didn't realize it was that bad.
yes and yes
Link
Strong but true words 100+
Well to you it's always too early lol. I totally agree that the models are not perfect, and they are not the only tool we use. I, too, thought we would get some landfalls last year. It was a statistical miracle that we didn't. This entire recent La Nina episode has been downright abnormal in North America, from last hurricane season right through this last winter. Perhaps that had something to do with it.
I refuse to give up on long-range forecasting though. I know you don't like it and don't think it's possible, but I'm here to say that it is, and we're learning to get better at it. It's a new aspect to meteorology that only a handful of forecasters have actually tried their hands at. Joe Bastardi is one of them, and has had some spectacular successes, as well as some wounding failures. That, however, should not stop him or others from trying to get a grasp on these overall patterns. Why not? It could help save countless lives someday.
Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 07/15/2011
Typhoon Ma-on projected to strike Japan Tuesday
By Jason Samenow
...The storm threatens to come on the heels of not only the March earthquakes and tsunami, but also a major heat wave that has afflicted the country. Bloomberg reported Thursday: “Deaths from heatstroke in Japan quadrupled in the early part of summer as temperatures rose and air conditioners were switched off in line with government appeals to curb electricity usage to avoid power blackouts.” In the last 10 days of June, temperatures were nearly four degrees above average in Tokyo, the highest since at least 1961 according to the Bloomberg article.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/post/typhoon-ma-on-projected-to-strike-jap an-tuesday/2011/07/15/gIQANuXNGI_blog.html
I'm all for trying, but I don't think long term forecasting will ever improve beyond short gains over long periods of time. Heck we still need to worry about making more near term forecasting before jumping into long term ones. Weather is just too darn complicated. I think its better we focus on making more near term forecasts more accurate. Long term ones is like a crap shoot.
If Joe Bastardi is ever right with those long term forecasts, its only because he does it so much that eventually her gets it right, lol.
I have no problem with looking at what the long range pattern may be in the coming weeks or what the longwave ridge/trough pattern could be, but too many on here (not you) are gloom and doom. Most of us this year (Caribbean, Gulf, Atlantic seaboard) will not be directly affected by a tropical system. Some will, and some maybe even devastated, but the majority of us will get through the season unscathed. The question of course is who.
+1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM FRIDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT FOR LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG/ADJACENT TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A
STRONG ONSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES OF THREE-QUARTERS
TO ONE FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 8P AND 11P THIS EVE.
The North Carolina mountains are struggling in the low 50s with the foothills in the 60s. Down east to Raleigh,NC closer to 80+.
Here on the West coast of Cumbria, England, we have normal tidal ranges of 7 metres with the astronomical tides. Most folk have built way, way back from that level when you think of 100's of years experience of winter 960 lows with 80mph winds (avge 5 yrly), they can bring the tide to 10 metres if it all falls together.
Non-tropical, but Ma-on nevertheless IS and it's a beast. Japan's worst nightmare at this terrible time...
Wow, thats very interesting..had no idea..thanks for the info!
Typhoon Ma-on Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Time of Latest Image: 201107152232
Currently, this product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.
The five datasets currently used are the ASCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery (see Mueller et al 2006 ) and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations as described in Bessho et al (2006). Past analyses also made use of the QuickSCAT scatterometer (i.e., prior to November 2009), but this satellite is no longer producing observations of surface vector winds.
Each of the input data are shown in subpanels following the analysis (i.e., storm-relative). Shown are AMSU winds, Cloud-drift/IR/WV winds, IR-proxy winds and Scatterometer winds; QuikSCAT, when available for past analyses (BLUE) and ASCAT (RED). All input data in these panels has been reduced to a 10-m land or oceanic exposure depending on the location (i.e., non-surface data has been reduced to a 10-m exposure).
How good are the wind estimates? Here is the verification based upon 2007 data . These statistics were based on 1) H*Wind data when available and 2) best track wind radii estimates from NHC. In interpreting the wind radii verification it is important to not that the zero wind radii are included in the verification, which both skews and inflates the MAE verification statistics. Note however detection is improved over climatology provided by Knaff et al. (2007).
Using the AMSU-derived azimuthally averaged temperature and height files radial/height cross sections of temperature and tangential wind are created (see Demuth et al (2004) ). The tangential wind field is derived using the 2-d gradient wind equations. Note that the resolution horizontal of the AMSU instrument results in a smooth temperature field and an unrealistically low tangential wind speeds.
These images are useful in determining the thermal structure of the tropical cyclone.
Ma-on Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Time of Latest Image: 201107152314
Viewing: 151 - 201
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