U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat
The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.
The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:
Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.
Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.
Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.
The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.
Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.
Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.
Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.
Jeff Masters
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Link
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Thursday 21 July 2011
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.65 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4
Temperature: 100.1°F
Dewpoint: 73.2°F
Humidity: 43 %
Wind: W 24 mph
Humidex: 120
So you can expect this warm period in the Atlantic for another 15-20 years.
must be research flight?
I hope ya'll have ac; hope you're keeping all the filters clean (I know you are, I know what kinda coffee you drink, heh heh heh)
no carbonated beverages
nothing with caffiene
white grape juice with crucshed ice is good and not too sweet
add some cranberry juice and it's almost like a party
That graph shows a narrow slot of at least 145 knot winds within the eye wall. I know it is GFDL but don't know the validity of the winds.
uuhh...well what is "future 90L" ? Like , where's it at?
SO IAM COOL
JUST HOPE THE GRID HOLDS UP LAST TIME WE GOT THIS HOT 100 MILLION PEOPLE LOST POWER FOR 3 DAYS
That's that wave in the CATL approaching the northern Antilles that the models keep picking up on developing in the southern Bahamas. NOGAPS wants to sling that thing right into South Carolina...reminds me of Hugo (at least the track anyhow)
Hurricane categories are determined by surface, 10 meter above ground/water, winds.
Good job on the tint- good deal that the boss approved it.
Keep fridges n freezers full- they work better when they're full.
When are ya'll gonna get a reprieve?
I guess I should have said catl wave.
A Bonnie-like track?
Well, still up in the air as to development or track. Models take it from TX undeveloped, to east coast more developed. Definitely worth a watch I'd say.
XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.13N/53.23W
1100 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-051
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W
oh ok...well I don't think they're gonna invest it for at least 96 hours, if not longer, cause of a little dry air intrusion to the NW.
after that, slow to the west, I'm not seeing a sling into NC/SC quite yet. I expect the models to toss it every which-away between now and then, half expect the models to be late on picking up on a re-building of the high pressure ridge.
could be one of those monsoonal messes that drives us up the wall, if it heads in south of the southern bahamas.
But what do I know- I'm a dog. :)
You said the accursed name...
1. Comparisons to destructive cyclones from the past(no mention of the hundreds of "L's" that fizzled)
2. If it gets anywhere near the Hebert box...well, there'll be talk about the Hebert box
3. More talk of the most destructive cyclones in history..in order, you'll see posts that compare the L or TD to Andrew, Katrina, etc.
4. One member who disagrees with the NHC, whatever they say
I could go on........
Correct. The 145 KT winds are about 950MB or so. The highest I see at the surface are 135 to 140 Knots
All of canada lost power?!? O.o
yeah, it's really not good to be pre-naming stuff here. Sure everyone wants to be able to predict the future, but we gotta call it as we see it.
That'll be a potential recon on Saturday, then?
950mb could very well be at the surface in this storm. Do you mean the height that 950mb would typically be at?
You're completely wrong.
There will be more than one.
Just sayin'...
No need for alarm though.
According to the New York Independent System Operator (or NYISO) – the ISO responsible for managing the New York state power grid – a 3,500 MW power surge (towards Ontario) affected the transmission grid at 4:10:39 p.m. EDT.[4] From then through about 4:40 p.m. EDT, outages were reported in Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, New York City, Westchester, Orange and Rockland, Baltimore, Buffalo, Rochester, Binghamton, Albany, Detroit, and parts of New Jersey, including the city of Newark. This was followed by other areas initially unaffected, including all of New York City, portions of southern New York state, New Jersey, Vermont, Connecticut, and most of Ontario, Canada.[5] Eventually a large, somewhat triangular area bounded by Lansing, Michigan, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, the shore of James Bay, Ottawa, New York, and Toledo was left without power. According to the official analysis of the blackout prepared by the US and Canadian governments, more than 508 generating units at 265 power plants shut down during the outage. In the minutes before the event, the NYISO-managed power system was carrying 28,700 MW of load. At the height of the outage, the load had dropped to 5,716 MW, a loss of 80%.[4]
Within the area affected, about 200,000 people – in the Niagara Peninsula of Ontario, the easternmost corner of Ontario (centred on Cornwall), the portion of New York state including parts of Albany and north and west of Albany, a small pocket of mid-east Michigan, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and small pockets in New Jersey – continued to have power. The unaffected area was protected by transmission circuit devices at the Sir Adam Beck Hydroelectric Power Stations in Niagara Falls, at a switching station of the hydroelectric power station in Cornwall, as well as central New York state. Philadelphia and the surrounding mid-Atlantic areas were also completely unaffected because PJM disconnected them.[4]
Essential services remained in operation in some of these areas. In others, backup generation systems failed. Telephone networks generally remained operational, but the increased demand triggered by the blackout left many circuits overloaded. Water systems in several cities lost pressure, forcing boil-water advisories to be put into effect. Cellular service was interrupted as mobile networks were overloaded with the increase in volume of calls. Major cellular providers continued to operate on standby generator power.[citation needed] Television and radio stations remained on the air, with the help of backup generators, although some stations were knocked off the air for periods ranging from several hours to the length of the entire blackout.[vague]
It was an unseasonally hot day (over 31 °C or 88 °F) in much of the affected region, and the heat played a role in the initial event that triggered the wider power outage. The high ambient temperature increased energy demand, as people across the region turned on fans and air conditioning. This caused the power lines to sag as higher currents heated the lines.
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Well according to StormTop (or whatever the hell he calls himself now), it was supposed to be TS Don by now. So I'd say you definitely know more than him. lol
Crap, you caught me on the Hugo part...d'oh!
:O whoa. I see.
Maybe the track, but what became Hugo was a depression within one day after coming off the African coast. Hugo was already a CAT 1 hurricane by this point.
Link
BTW, that's NOT what he said. :)
Katrina wasn't a depression until it got to the middle Bahamas. Just sayin'...
He changes screennames so many times it's too dang hard to keep up with them all.
It looks like if it goes into the Caribbean it might face some trouble at least for a bit.
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER SW N ATLC PROMPTS STEADY
FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FURTHER WITH PROXIMITY OF INTENSIFYING
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING TROPICAL ATLC FRI AND CROSSING EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER HISPANIOLA MAY
ENHANCE DIVERGENT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE FRI AND SAT
INCREASING CONVECTION. WINDS AND SEAS DETERIORATE ACCORDINGLY
AS WAVE MAKES IT WAY ACROSS CARIBBEAN.
As for track don't know if this has anything to do with it...
THUS THE GUIDANCE PREFERENCE LEANS AWAY FROM THE GFS
THAT MAY BE OVERESTIMATING PENETRATION INTO MID-LATITUDE RIDGING.
LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE CORE OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY OVER SRN CANADA AND THUS CARRY SOMEWHAT LOWER PRESSURES
ACROSS CNTRL-ERN CANADA THAN CONTINUITY. THIS TROF SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AFTER NEXT MIDWEEK AS A BROAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MIDDLE LATITUDES OF THE LOWER 48.
well right now he only has one screen name. And no, I ain't tellin'. But a few folks have already figured it out.
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