Not a trace of Don; What's next?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:41 PM GMT on July 30, 2011

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Don is dead

Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.

NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.


Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.

The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.

What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress

Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.

Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.

Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance

A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.

If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.

Angela

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1950. aquak9
hi gambler, P451, g'morning Nea, all the others...

Speaking of Ike, seems like it took it nearly two WEEKS to become anything. I thought it would sit there forever. Jaded, I suppose, from the rapid-fire action of '05.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrandiQ:
What time are we going to start seeing some data come in from the HH?


They're scheduled for 2PM but I don't know if that's takeoff time or arrival time. Either way we should see some data by dinner time.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Pretty insane that we're about to have our 4th storm of July, its insane because only a few weeks ago people where thinking we wouldn't see Bret until August.. and here we are about to have Emily. Proof MJO isn't all that is required to make storms.


One thing I've noticed is each year people seem to pigeon-hole themselves into a particular reason for why a season is either going well or being a no-show. Last year, IIRC it was a heavy SAL, but we had quite a few good storms come out of it. The MJO might be this year's 'pigeon-hole.'
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Pretty insane that we're about to have our 4th storm of July, its insane because only a few weeks ago people where thinking we wouldn't see Bret until August.. and here we are about to have Emily. Proof MJO isn't all that is required to make storms.

All you need to make storms is Mother Nature, and some clouds.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting aquak9:


Careful there...I've been accused of trolling, for saying such.


Ohh ok just playing around with jasonweatherman2011 this morning. all intrest should be on our soon to be Carib. storm forcasted to move more W-WNW next 48 hr
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1944. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


NAM Parallel which is scheduled to be implemented in a little over a week has it a little more SW.


Nrt... what they upgraded on the NAM? Was not aware there was a new version being tested out prior to implementation.
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1943. ncstorm
Quoting oceanblues32:


that is the closest i have seen it to florida yet right? perhaps i do have to keep a better eye on it being in the ft lauderdale area.


Actually the NOGAPS has been making landfall on Florida..this is the first run since the day before yesterday it dosent show it eithier crossing florida or riding up the east coast of florida..eithier way, it loves florida right now..
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Pre-Don (or dan?) systems were so meager looking and were upgraded, this one and even the africa wave look stronger. This 91L is taking its sweet time tho. Lets see what happens. In the meantime, how bout some Memphis P.D.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Those co-ordinates are most likely the wave. Not 91L. 91L is back at 51W/13N


That is a 48 hour forecast position.
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Jason, do you really think the wave out near cape verde is really gonna get any attention before at least getting to 30W. i get it has somewhat of model support for it, but right now they could care less about it until it really appears to get cranked up...
maybe tomorrow night youll see a 10 to 20% on it, but not much more...
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Good Morning.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Neapolitan:
Upgrade likely within the next thirty minutes...


Pretty insane that we're about to have our 4th storm of July, its insane because only a few weeks ago people where thinking we wouldn't see Bret until August.. and here we are about to have Emily. Proof MJO isn't all that is required to make storms.
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Quoting P451:
A whole lot of folks need to monitor 91L...and at this point quite a few need to be now taking it seriously.






Recon will sample 91L and the environment between it and the islands which will help refine the model outputs.

Todays 18z and 00z model runs should be fairly trustworthy once they have recon's data inputted.


What are those three lavender/pink/violet colored model tracks there heading mostly to the west? What are they and when did those pop up, I don't like those one bit...
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Hardly none of the models take it to the Carr. Though it seems like its moving west. Hope it doesnt hit SC. I'll be there. A weaker Texas system is what we need. Better than Don of course.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I think they start advisories at 11:00 AM EDT, their last forecast was close enough to the islands at 48 hours that watch/warnings would be needed.

AL 91 2011073106 03 OFCI 48 155N 611W 61
Those co-ordinates are most likely the wave. Not 91L. 91L is back at 51W/13N
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Quoting ncstorm:
The NAM has PR in its sights..

Link


NAM Parallel which is scheduled to be implemented in a little over a week has it a little more SW.
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Quoting ncstorm:
06Z NOGAPS..

Link


that is the closest i have seen it to florida yet right? perhaps i do have to keep a better eye on it being in the ft lauderdale area.
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Morning Water puppy, P451
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Upgrade likely within the next thirty minutes...


Where ya gettin' that from?
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who was the last cape verde system to hit the U.S.?
Was it Ike?


It was Ike, yes.
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Who was the last cape verde system to hit the U.S.?
Was it Ike?
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Upgrade likely within the next thirty minutes...
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1925. ncstorm
The NAM has PR in its sights..

Link
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1923. aquak9
Quoting blsealevel:


i give it 100% chance it makes it out to sea?


Careful there...I've been accused of trolling, for saying such.
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1922. ncstorm
06Z NOGAPS..

Link
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:))
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1919. BrandiQ
What time are we going to start seeing some data come in from the HH?
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
i see invest 92L COMING SOON!


i give it 100% chance it makes it out to sea?
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Well all of the Central Florida TV mets are going with 91L staying offshore which makes sense. The question is just by how far. With our rain luck this year it will probably be just far enough away that we're in the sinking air on the fringe and we get a nice few day dry streak.

I'm interested to see what the models do after they get some HH data.

Boo! ;-)
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1914. ncstorm
the CMC is pretty close to the CONUS with its latest run

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I think they start advisories at 11:00 AM EDT, their last forecast was close enough to the islands at 48 hours that watch/warnings would be needed.

AL 91 2011073106 03 OFCI 48 155N 611W 61
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06z HWRF
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Quoting JRRP:

IMG style="WIDTH: 500px; MAX-WIDTH: 501px" src="http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/06zat cfearlyinvest1best.gif">

I am going with the NGXI (the yellow one)
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Quoting JRRP:




It will be interesting to see how these look tomorrow after we get all the Hurr. Hunter and other flight data put into them.
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1908. ncstorm
it looks like the trough split happens but leaves 91L down in the bahamas..

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1907. Gearsts
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1903. JRRP
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Anybody have the forecast models?


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lol
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1900. aquak9
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Or because it isn't even 8am EDT and everybody is still in bed.


Naaahh...we're just all drumming our fingers and going "hhmmmph."
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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