Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Tomorrow should clear things up, hopefully.
Same here.
I don't want to have to worry about something while I'm on vacation...
O_O_O_O_O 5k posts! Angela/Dr we need a new blog!
3000 of them are useless :P haha
roflmbo.
dude, you have changed your stuff all night long... and i just took your profile pic and the one for jasonweather11 and did a face recognition analysis on them...you are the same person...you are responding to your own stuff with 2 different accounts...and posting different information on several different accounts...what is up with that...are you trying to make sure that no matter what you say you will be right with at least one of them? Dude, we are not that stupid, besides, your improper use of the English language gives you away with each and every account you have....
And you made the 5000th comment LOL
agree. am up to #158 now with probably mostly the same people using a variety of handles.
anyway, 91L is taking its time developing, evidently.
She is a woman of her word...
Maybe she could do a blog about Haboobs...
LOL. I would put him on ignore, but he is too funny to ignore.
Seems to have pushed it to the north.
Yea and 2000 of them are the same person with that big empty space between his ears asking questions and then answering them with a different name.
Too much drama. 70%/shear/dry air one minute, then strong t-storms the next.
Such a b-beautiful sacrifice ;(
91L/INV/XX
MARK CENTER OF IMAGE
14.950N/55.23W
You're givin me the munchies man!
And 1000 is the same guy copying and pasting what he said 20 seconds ago. :)
Firing up nicely, might stay up to see the show tonight.
weak systems are not built high vertically...troughs are up high...hence, a weak storm is not typically steered by a trough....
Thanks for telling us something absolutely pointless.
j/k XD
There is no rule against speaking in languages other than English on the blog. Also, although this website is based in the United States, it is open to access for anyone outside of the United States. And finally, a large % of the people affected during the Atlantic hurricane season live in countries other than the United States.
If it really irritates you so much go find an online translator, or maybe even consider learning another language. It's actually a lot of fun, and comes in handy more often than not. If you did that, in the future you wouldn't have to get mad at people speaking languages you can't comprehend.
There you go, there is your 3000. LOL
And this isn't making the count any better, but what the heck XD
Thank you Tigger!
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N17W TO 11N32W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N32W TO 07N45W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N53W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W AND 45W AND WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W AND 48W.
LinkPennStateFloater
complicated!
No, not even close lol.
no problem... :)
Weaker storms don't reach as high into the atmosphere thus are directed by the surface flow, which in the tropics, is typically E to W and points between. Stronger storms reach higher into the atmosphere where steering is much more diverse, typically affected by upper level lows, troughs of low pressure, TUTT's, Upper level high pressure. Troughs reaching into the lower latitudes in the summer typically are rather insignificant at the surface and thus do not impact the storm direction.
Anyway.
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