Not a trace of Don; What's next?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:41 PM GMT on July 30, 2011

Share this Blog
33
+

Don is dead

Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.

NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.


Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.

The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.

What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress

Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.

Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.

Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance

A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.

If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1850 - 1800

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139Blog Index

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
models just keep on movin south and west still say 91L is a caribbean/gulf storm



Yeah looks that way but I really hope the models are wrong and 91L/ Emily makes a hard right turn soon. But it doesn't look like that will happen. Good morning folks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherjr:
According to the most recent visible satellite picture for invest 91 it remains a very weak invest (to my eyes). Now I doubt it could be declared TD any time soon. People from antilles should not worry about it right now (just my personal opinion). The infrared picture is a little more impressive, perhaps.


You're really suggesting that people in the Lesser Antilles forget about something that the NHC says will be a TD/TC by the time it reaches them tomorrow evening? Not sensible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
Unfortunately Hispañola is becoming the prime target after affecting the Leeward Islands chain. This is due to the delay in the development... the longer it takes the more time it'll spend in the upper Caribbean Sea.



Which would be a factor later on. I doubt a trough is going to dip too far into the Caribbean in early August. As far south as the Bahamas at best you'd think. It may create a weakness, but a weak storm will be less inclined to be pulled into it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1846. pottery
Quoting Cotillion:


Morning pottery.

Amazing story, glad to hear of no deaths. Hope injuries were down as well, must have been terrifying beyond measure.

One broken leg and some minor injuries.
Aircraft broke just aft of the first class section.
Fortunately, no fire!!
Incredible....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
Caribbean Airlines lost an Airbus in Guyana yesterday. 160 people on board from NewYork and Trinidad.
Conditions at the Airport were rain and fog at 1:00am and the aircraft overshot the runway.
Fuselage broke in two, but miraculously no one was killed.


Morning pottery.

Amazing story, glad to hear of no deaths. Hope injuries were down as well, must have been terrifying beyond measure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1841. WxLogic
Unfortunately Hispañola is becoming the prime target after affecting the Leeward Islands chain. This is due to the delay in the development... the longer it takes the more time it'll spend in the upper Caribbean Sea.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1840. pottery
Caribbean Airlines lost an Airbus in Guyana yesterday. 160 people on board from NewYork and Trinidad.
Conditions at the Airport were rain and fog at 1:00am and the aircraft overshot the runway.
Fuselage broke in two, but miraculously no one was killed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Seems 91L has drifted a bit more NW, not quite as southernly as it was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Puerto Rico NWS Discussion

THEREAFTER...FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND PROBABLY A PART OF THURSDAY...OUR LOCAL FORECAST HINGES ON
AFOREMENTIONED SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS FEATURE HAS TAKEN ITS TIME GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED
BUT NHC HAS STATED THAT THEY BELIEVE IT IS CLOSE TO BEING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH A NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL OR ETCHED IN STONE...MOST COMPUTER
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING AND A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM THEN "PROJECTED" TO PASS NEAR THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What will 91L be at the next advisory?
A.TS Emily
b.TD 5
C.Still at 100%
D.(FOR DOWNCASTERS) still invest but minused chances of development

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting QMiami:
anyone have the flight plan today - what time are they expected in 91l
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 31/1530Z
D. 14.5N 56.0W
E. 31/1730Z TO 31/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 01/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02EEA SURV
C. 31/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 01/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 01/0400Z
D. 15.2N 58.1W
E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z.
3. REMARKS:
A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE
WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION.
B. 30/0600Z REQUIREMENT FOR TROPICAL STORM
DON CANCELED BY NHC AT 29/0100Z.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miami NWS Discussion

.EXTENDED PERIOD...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW BECOMES INDETERMINATE AS MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH/TROUGH AND
THE AFFECT OF A POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NW
THROUGH THE SW N ATLC APPROACHES THE S BAHAMAS AND BY THE WEEKEND
MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG 75W AS PER LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. DAILY MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WITH A
LIGHTER WIND FLOW AND E/W COAST SEA BREEZES AT THIS TIME A UNIFORM S
FLA COVERAGE MAY BE EXPECTED. THE BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...THE LOCAL
WEATHER MAY BE CHANGEABLE AND A CLIMO FORECAST IN PLACE FOR THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1833. pottery
Quoting ryang:


Yup...raining heavily now.

Good to see you Ryang.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1832. QMiami
anyone have the flight plan today - what time are they expected in 91l
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1831. pottery
Quoting gwadaman:


Morning Pottery, conditions are changing in Barbados and standing by for some heavy showers shortly. Not a leaf is moving and humidity is about 92%, wind dir SSW...

Yeah, prepare for some wet stuff today!
Winds from SSW eh?
Keep dry!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1830. ryang
Quoting gwadaman:


Morning Pottery, conditions are changing in Barbados and standing by for some heavy showers shortly. Not a leaf is moving and humidity is about 92%, wind dir SSW...


Yup...raining heavily now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LinkWVLoop

Good morning, WXLogic. Care to give an idea of what is going on?!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lovemamatus:
Fell asleep before the 2AM PLANFALF model run came out. McTavish numbers are set in the 6.8-7.2 range. The news is not good. Emily will strike 10-20 miles N of Myrtle Beach as a Strong Cat 3 to minimal Cat 4. No recurve this time.....just Hugo.


PLANFALF?

Pseudo-scientific Lore-based Antagonistic Nephelococcygic Fictional Astrological Landfall Forecast?

GREAT MODEL.

Yeah, love it with a morning coffee and a Calvin and Hobbes cartoon strip.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

It looks that way...
Barbados is about to get some heavy rains.....


Morning Pottery, conditions are changing in Barbados and standing by for some heavy showers shortly. Not a leaf is moving and humidity is about 92%, wind dir SSW...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1825. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning,

looks like today's the day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Intresting mass of thunder storms coming off of Africa

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1822. pottery
Quoting floridaboy14:
Did you guys notice that the tropical wave asscociated with 91L seperated? look on infrared satalite and look to 91L's west

It looks that way...
Barbados is about to get some heavy rains.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Did you guys notice that the tropical wave asscociated with 91L seperated? look on infrared satalite and look to 91L's west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lovemamatus:
Fell asleep before the 2AM PLANFALF model run came out. McTavish numbers are set in the 6.8-7.2 range. The news is not good. Emily will strike 10-20 miles N of Myrtle Beach as a Strong Cat 3 to minimal Cat 4. No recurve this time.....just Hugo.
Hilarious!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Salutations, fine denizens of Wunderworld.

Seems for the wording that the HHs will finalise TD5\Emily.

If Emily does rear its head today, it would be the ninth season to feature 5 or more tropical storms prior to August 1st (1887, 1933, 1936, 1959, 1966, 1995, 1997, 2005).

It is not necessarily a guarantee of a very active season after, though. Some have been: 1887, 1933, 1936, 1995, 2005 for example.

On the other hand, 1969 and 2010 were quiet until they hit August. 1959 and 1966 had roughly half of the entire season total before August 1st and 1997 had over half.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning guys. looks like the tropical wave seperated from 91L but the main low pressure which was to th eeast was dominant so looks like its now starting to become a td and notice a more southern track is starting to occur
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning pre-Emily. :D

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:


Here's why



Fish storm is defined as a storm that moves harmlessly away from land and out to sea without harming land/society.

This isn't a fish storm because it will *at the very least* effect portions of Puerto Rico.

91L looks a lot better, probably because it is Dmax as we speak. I really think this is already a depression, but I guess the NHC is waiting for confirmation when they fly into the system this afternoon. Something tells me that they will find "Emily" this afternoon. If they do, 5 storms before August. Can it happen?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm gonna crash,and get up when the plane gets into the 91L. You all have a good morning or whatever time of day or night it is where you live. Peace..........Out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At least the flight time should be short. They have planes in Virgin Islands? Puerto Rico?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherjr:
Yes, HurricaneHunterJoe, blog will be busy later today.
Iforgot what time it was, we are in the now, not the tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherjr:

Bobbyweather: I think invest will be officially declared TD at 11:00 AM or at 5:00 PM

Me too, it's too late to be designated now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see 2 HH Flights if she develops and throw in a NOAA jet for good measure to check things out up top. Blog will be busy today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello long time no see. I see 91L is organizing into a tropical cyclone.
In my opinion, it is organized enough to be designated as a depression, but the Hurricane Hunters will confirm this fact.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How's 91L doing tonight? She looked really good this am and then,went to looking so-so. Has she rebounded? 100%, sounds good. Looks like it's gonna be a close call on her track.Timing is everything,some people say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
models just keep on movin south and west still say 91L is a caribbean/gulf storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
Woah look at this




Very weak line of thunderstorms pushing NW over San Diego region. These thunderstorms were building up today over the mountains a bit as the ridge over the US built west a bit pushing the monsoonal flow west as well. Didn't get much of any rainfall or thunder here but still cool to see rain coming from the East as a result of thunderstorms cuz there so freakn rare over here
Yup, We got wet today, rain from about 3:30-4:30, did my duty to god and country. Being a spotter for the NWS. Lots of lightning and wind, all in all, a nice change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
HURRICANE!!

Maybe in 72hrs. Why are you so surprised?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1850 - 1800

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
42 °F
Overcast