Not a trace of Don; What's next?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:41 PM GMT on July 30, 2011

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Don is dead

Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.

NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.


Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.

The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.

What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress

Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.

Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.

Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance

A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.

If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.

Angela

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good outflow coming from 91L. i thimk this is now td5
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Hey Miami, do you have the latest ATCF coordinates?
I'm waiting for the 06z ones to come in, they should be in in about 20 minutes or so.

Here are the 0z ones though:

AL, 91, 2011073100, , BEST, 0, 128N, 498W, 30, 1008, LO,
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0z CMC 144 hours:

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Quoting MississippiWx:


All they say is "tropical cyclone". A tropical cyclone is obviously a TD/TS/H. They always mean a TD or TS, though. We see quite often where a system bypasses the TD stage and goes straight to TS.

Why don't they just name it TD Emily. When recon goes in, they can upgrade it to TS Emily.
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1646. nigel20
Quoting ryang:
....steering looks westward for now....




Yeah i think so too.
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1645. j2008
Well I'm out for the night. Take care of PreTD5 and PreTD5 LOL. Night everybody.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


West north-west-ish to northwest nowadays.


actually it moved NW when it pulled out of the ITCZ, but today is now moving between West and WNW
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1643. ryang
....steering looks westward for now....



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Hey Miami, do you have the latest ATCF coordinates?
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thanks for new weather terminology lol
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CMC persists in saying it will hug East coast of Fla as a smallish storm.
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Quoting stoormfury:
is pre TD5 moving west or north of west


West north-west-ish to northwest nowadays.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

develop into what, a td/ts/H?


All they say is "tropical cyclone". A tropical cyclone is obviously a TD/TS/H. They always mean a TD or TS, though. We see quite often where a system bypasses the TD stage and goes straight to TS.
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is pre TD5 moving west or north of west
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Quoting texwarhawk:


The way I learned it is-

D-Min is just before sunset.
D-Max is just before sunrise.

I was told (not exactly certain about it though) was during night time you'll see much more convection over the oceans (as opposed to daytime on land) because the oceans hold a lot of heat so when the sun is down water is evaoporating off the ocean then condensing at a more intense rate because the air above the water is cooler, as opposed to daytime when the air above the water may warmer than the water itself. Think of it kinda like sea fog.

If I am wrong than I am sorry but that is what I was told on here last year.
you're right about dmin, but dmax is actually just after sunrise.

And your explanation is correct...during the day the upper atmosphere warms, while the lower atmosphere remains fairly cool due to contact with the ocean. As a result the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere heat up more than the lower levels of the atmosphere and as a result it is harder for the air in the lower levels of the atmosphere to rise, since the air above it is actually lighter. Therefore, over the ocean, during the day, the atmosphere is less stable. During the night, the upper to mid level atmosphere cools due to the lack of solar radiation, while the lower atmosphere remains warm in response to the ocean which remains warm due to the high specific heat of water. As a result, the lower atmosphere remains warm during the night, while the upper to mid levels of the atmosphere cool, and therefore the atmosphere over the ocean is more unstable during the night.
Quoting PRweathercenter:

I believe this system may already be a TD, what do you think ?
it is warm core, has a closed low pressure, and a closed circulation. So by that measure it is a TD. Only reason the NHC hasn't named it yet is probably due to the multiple circulations embedded within the broad cyclonic circulation. They probably also want to wait for recon
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
1635. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
Dont understand that:(

lol...
en la parte de la izquierda veras la velocidad del viento en nudos...lo representa la linea azul
la linea roja representa las rafagas de viento

en la parte de la derecha esta la presion
lo representa la linea verde

abajo estan las fechas
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1634. JLPR2
I'm confused at the 100% the NHC gave it but they are the experts.

surface and mid level vorts aren't aligned.




Convergence and divergence are ok at best and it's lacking convection, plus we don't have anything to confirm the existence of the LLC besides satellite images. And the buoy at 15N 50W still has straight east winds.

I was expecting 91L to be held at 90%. I repeat I'm confused here. :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1633. nigel20
Quoting ryang:


Oh, I'm in Barbados so I'm really keeping a close eye on this system. Tomorrow will be very interesting when RECON goes in.

Ok. i remember some of the previous model runs for hurricane dean and they had it moving north of the islands, but we all know what happened.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


No, just means that there is a 100% chance that 91L will develop within 48 hours.

develop into what, a td/ts/H?
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1631. JRRP
Quoting AussieStorm:

Does that mean it's a TD???

Don was 100% as well
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I keep saying I'm going to bed, but then you guys lure me back in for another post.

I think they will wait until recon, unless it improves significantly overnight (very possible).
LOL, they might.

They might also want to issue watches/warnings as soon as possible, so it's possible that they just issue advisories at 5a.m. Never know what's going on at the NHC.
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1629. ryang
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, jamaica


Oh, I'm in Barbados so I'm really keeping a close eye on this system. Tomorrow will be very interesting when RECON goes in.
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1628. nigel20
Quoting AussieStorm:

Does that mean it's a TD???
I think so.
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1627. Gearsts
Quoting JRRP:
Dont understand that:(
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Does that mean it's a TD???


No, just means that there is a 100% chance that 91L will develop within 48 hours.
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Quoting nigel20:
91l at 100%

Does that mean it's a TD???
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1624. j2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A LOW CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SUNDAY
. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

Wow TD 5 possibly in the EPAC at the 5Am too!! WOW Atlantic and EPAC at the same time.
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1623. JRRP
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1622. nigel20
Quoting ryang:


Are u in a Caribbean island?

Yeah, jamaica
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree. I'm probably gonna stay up, nothing else to do, LOL.


I keep saying I'm going to bed, but then you guys lure me back in for another post.

I think they will wait until recon, unless it improves significantly overnight (very possible).
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Im getting prediction #1 right :)

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 259
1619. JRRP
100% again
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
TD 5 at 5am is likely here
I agree. I'm probably gonna stay up, nothing else to do, LOL.
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1617. ryang
Quoting nigel20:
That's what i want to know too.


Are u in a Caribbean island?
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Chances went up, LOL.
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Well, looks can be deceiving. The NHC likes what it sees, though. It's hard to tell at night without visible. However, I think they agree with what I was saying on my last post that convective organization should improve throughout the night. Looks like all systems are a go for at least a TD tomorrow. Thankfully, we will have recon this time.

Anyway, night again.
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1614. nigel20
Quoting ryang:


Good question:

That's what i want to know too.
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1613. sky1989
Quoting MississippiWx:


Westward-ho!


Oh my goodness! This blog will be in shambles if 91L (Emily) really does go westard!

Have a good night all.
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TD 5 at 5am is likely here
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is only one reason for the lack of convection - the lack of convergence. The fact that Don struggled with convection because it didn't have convergence is evidence in itself.
surface convergence and convection depend on each other.

The more convection you get, the more surface convergence. The more surface convergence you get, the more convection you get.

So to say a lack of convergence is the reason for the lack of convection is not necessarily true. Trade winds are not accelerating or spreading out, so there is no surface divergence. The broad and fairly fast moving nature of the system is limiting significant convergence somewhat. But also, the lack of convection as a result of dmin and dry air are limiting convection somewhat as well which is limiting surface convergence.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


There is no shear affecting 91L at this time. While there may be a meager amount of dry air affecting the system, DMIN is the main reason for its look at this time.
maybe not right over the top, but certainly to the north.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just because he says something, doesn't necessarily mean that it is true. Something totally different may be going on with 91L, we do not know.

true, not everything he says is not necessarily the truth.

But he is right, the wave is moving ahead of the actual low pressure. This can be seen on TPW and vorticity imagery.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
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1609. SLU
SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 310542
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE
TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
---
100%
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
1607. nigel20
91l at 100%
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1606. ryang
Quoting stoormfury:
a new burst of convection 11n50w in exactly where all the vorticity is at the moment. is this a centre relocation


Good question:

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100%!!! despite loss of convection
000
ABNT20 KNHC 310542
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 259
Looks like 91L is going through "The Box."
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ECM has Muifa running up the entire NE coast of China while apparently maintaining major hurricane strength. It then smacks Beijing head on. The ramifications are too diverse to consider. No more money for our debt. World depression and or war.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
South Korea received the heaviest rainfall in its recorded history this past week--six month's work in just three days in places--and that's lead to numerous mudslides. The following dashcam video shows just how quick and powerful these things can be:

damn that is intense.

I've been in a similar, but far less severe, situation once when my family and I were heading up to the mountains. We could see thunderstorms pilling up against the mountain range all day long as we were traveling parallel to the range for several hours. Then all of the sudden we saw that cars ahead of us were beginning to slow down. As we got closer to the scene we eventually came to a complete stop on the highway, amongst a parking lot of cars on the freeway. We got out of our cars and walked up a ways along the highway to see what had happened only to see a flash flood had completely washed out the highway ahead of us. Also, an 18 wheel semi truck was swept clear off the road and down the freshly developed river which had washed out our road. Luckily the driver got out ok, but it was quite the experience and we were delayed a few hours from reaching our destination.

Pretty cool to see it though
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
1601. j2008
Quoting nofailsafe:


Sounds like a good idea, I'm up for the 2am update though, then it's time to hit the sack. Early morning tomorrow, er... today.

I'm gonna do the same thing, I'm gonna stay up for it tonight. Its still Saturday here.
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1600. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:
Anyway, I think I'm going to call it a night. 91L is pretty disorganized at the moment. The fact that the 850mb vort really doesn't match up with the best convection throws up a red flag for me. Convective organization is lacking for now. Still think we will see a much improved appearance in the morning after its had d-max to help shake things out. Night everyone.



Yep, something seems to have gone wrong somewhere and 91L has lost organization and no ASCAT again. Jeez, I hate that satellite's aim. -.-

Sleep Well!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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