Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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No. 91L is becoming self-sustaining.
roflmao! XD
LOL what the heck was wrong with the upper-air pattern to create a track like that? :P
I Think anywhere from Lousiana to Newfoundland is at Play...
But i think the Cone will include: PR,DR,Bahamas,Carolina's,Bermuda,Florida?, Cuba?
People living in PR and DR should take measures to secure their property's
People living in Bahamas should start to take measures on securing their property...
People living in Florida, Bermuda , Carolina's should watch closely
Blogger's heads would have exploded!
Who's Staying up?
I won't be able to track it in the morning/early afternoon this week, but after 3PM I'll track this thing. Sad news for me, school starts the day after my birthday. :(
You are so right I just did some quick research on "Ike" and it was predicted originally to hit the Bahamas and then south florida, things changed so much.
I am, since it will be 11 here
I hope NHC will stay at 90 or goes to 100
I know I've seen one track that paralleled the coast of Texas, I am pretty sure, west to east, but I couldn't find it.
Thanks for that explanation... Learning a little everyday
preAlex was a large monsoon low, which kicked up convection in the western Caribbean from Nicaragua to Cuba to the Yucatan across its many many pre-development hours.
Then a small tropical wave (visually more accurate to call it a remnant of a tropical wave) ran into that preAlex convection while it was hanging mostly north of Nicaragua.
And preAlex spun up into HUMONGOUS TropicalStormAlex.
Which got its vortex kicked by the mountainous terrain of the southern-to-mid YucatanPeninsula as it made the crossing into the Bay of Campeche.
After a couple or three 3hour time-between-reports in which it travelled very slowly as a weak TropicalDepression, it regained TropicalStorm status... but not anywhere near as large as before.
Then as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico, it began growing large again while slowly increasing its max.sus.winds and more quickly decreasing its minimum pressure into hurricane status.
Fortunately, HurricaneAlex soon hit land a bit east of Matamoros, a bit south of Brownsville.
Cuz it made landfall as a Cat.2 while having the minimum pressure of a MUCH more powerful high-end Cat.3
With a few more hours of development, landfall could have been incredibly NASTY.
Looks to be just a big flare up of the ITCZ. Wonder if it could be slowing down the development of 91L though.
When is your birthday?
It's starting to tighten up into one area too, this should be interesting at Dmax/tomorrow. Popcorn, check. Pills to subdue the effects of my popcorn allergy, check.
Oh, so he posts alot still? I only see his comments when ya'll quote him. I forgot I've had him on ignore since last year. :) Only one!
Edit, well if you want to count all 5 of his--all the jasonis's and jasonthe's as one. lol
IIRC, a high came in and blocked it, pushed it back, then moved off and allowed it to proceed, or something along those lines.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANDO
11:00 AM PhST August 1 2011
==============================
Tropical Depression "LANDO" has remained almost stationary over the west Philippine Sea.
At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Lando located at 17.4ºN 117.8ºE or 280 km west southwest of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northeast slowly.
Additional Information
=========================
The country is not directly affected by TD Lando but the enhancement of southwest monsoon that bring scattered to widespread rains over Luzon and Visayas particularly the western section.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-10 mm per hour within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.
The public and the Disaster Risk Reduction Management Councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
August 7th.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TYPHOON KABAYAN (MUIFA)
11:00 AM PhST August 1 2011
==============================
Typhoon "KABAYAN" has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a North Northwest direction.
At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Kabayan (Muifa) located at 19.3°N 133.9°E or 1,160 km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 4 knots.
Additional Information
=========================
This weather disturbance is too far to directly affect any part of the country.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour within the 800 km diameter of the typhoon.
Meanwhile, TD "Lando" was estimated to be at 280 km West Southwest of Laoag City (17.4°N, 117.8°E). See Severe Weather Bulletin for TD "Lando" for details.
The public and the Disaster Risk Reduction Management Councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Ok. School starts here on August 10. :(
Good night all.
Videos would be 15+ minutes LOL. I mean a west track, shifting to south then east?? A hell of a lot of pattern changes must have been going on, and some intense analysis' would be made. Haha.
nah, who the hell is that guy anyway?
Good Night.
I should go to sleep too, my eyes are getting tired. XD
Yeah, was thinking that myself.
some loser blogger...
Mine's Aug 6th. And school wont start till September for me. The Tuesday after Labor Day IIRC...
I dont know that guy... Never heard of him.. is he a good blogger?
I have no idea, but I'll make sure to tell you once I hear any information of this person :D
We're definitely starting to see the beginnings of a closed circulation.
You and can you please stop trolling?
Any word on if they got the problem fixed with the updates, or is it something that we deal with when it flies into convection out there?
Relax, buddy. If you read a bit further, you'll notice she said that she didn't intentionally exclude the ones she didn't mention.
west-northeast???
It is probably fair to forecast an impact to Bespin at some point.
5 years of life wasted. :P
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