Not a trace of Don; What's next?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:41 PM GMT on July 30, 2011

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Don is dead

Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.

NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.


Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.

The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.

What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress

Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.

Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.

Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance

A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.

If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.

Angela

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Quoting scott39:
How come 91L looks worse than earlier today?

DMin
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1396. scott39
How come 91L looks worse than earlier today?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
This system has a " fairly large" circulation and when it does (if it does) consolidate has the potential to become a cat2-3.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I use to pay for this Blog. But, i stopped after getting BANNED for helping others while seeing others post more harsh stuff and they keep on going only because of their Political Belief. Just stating the facts that many others have stated.


Same here and changed my "Blog Name". was a member sing Aug 25, 2005.
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Quoting 2005nostalgia:
Not to be a downcaster...but the most reliable model still doesn't develop 91L.


Tell that to the other tropical storms of 2011...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1390. j2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
Can someone please put the KIDDIES to bed, PLEASE!

Yes please, and lets get back to the Tropics instead of some other wierd things. 91L has two hours to the update, it has alot of time to change and convectionize.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Weatherjr just go to sleep! if you don't get it go to your bed and empty your mind and close your eyes for 7-9 hours. You got it?
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Quoting 2005nostalgia:
Not to be a downcaster...but the most reliable model still doesn't develop 91L.

Non of the models developed or even picked up on Bret. To you, which is a reliable model?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1387. EricSFL
Thanks admin!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I use to pay for this Blog. But, i stopped after getting BANNED for helping others while seeing others post more harsh stuff and they keep on going only because of their Political Belief. Just stating the facts that many others have stated.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting AussieStorm:

This person is just saying this to get people to bite. Ignore and move on. This is what we call, a Troll.


Sorry.. I was a page or so behind when I read that.. I TRY to read every post. Will ignore any future posts from that troll.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


If the NHC dropped and raised percentages based on diurnal impacts or frame by frame judgements like some on here they would look like fools, because their percentages would go up and down all the time


I agree with that statement.
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1374. weatherjr

this site is for weather only...you are about to be banned by admin...anyone tired of this persons antics please begin by clicking your ! button by each of his off topic comments...
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I have never complained about this site, just about other people that use this site, Is this ok by you My Lord Neo????

Huh? I didn't mention your name or anyone else's in my comment #1371. Methinks thou doth protest too much... ;-)
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Quoting weatherjr:
Any opinion about UFOs intervention? Pseudoscience? Military climate Intervetion? Need more information...?


Unidentified Forecast Observations go unnoticed, so no.
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Quoting msgambler:
Got your attention didn't it? LOL

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can someone please put the KIDDIES to bed, PLEASE!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting Neapolitan:
Blocking the ads in most cases prevents the ad server from tallying an impression, meaning that WU is deprived of income. As such, a person who both doesn't pay and block ads is getting an absolutely free ride, and at the very least has no right to complain about the site. Ever.

I have never complained about this site, just about other people that use this site, Is this ok by you My Lord Neo????
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
I thought the dip wad was going to bed....


Dip wad went to bed, unfortunately the Qtip is still active.
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Quoting IFuSAYso:


To block, or to be blocked, that is the question.

I say block, as long as you don't block me. hehehe.
If a person says something that is so ridiculous and can't back it up. Like 91L will go poof before hitting the SE Carib Islands. but can't back up this statement, I say, Ignore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blocking the ads in most cases prevents the ad server from tallying an impression, meaning that WU is deprived of income. As such, a person who both doesn't pay and block ads is getting an absolutely free ride, and at the very least has no right to complain about the site. Ever.
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This is looking more and more like a storm that will favor a more southerly direction.......!!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting P451:




65Gallon-Tub-Water-Storage-Bladder


I would think this could be a very useful tool to have.


Wow, that's beautiful. It's such a simple idea too.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 927
1367. Gearsts
Quoting weatherjr:
The UFOs are taking a Joke with us. You know, they are usually invisible. They are very smart. For that reason the reconnisance plane never crash with their ships in the recognisance fligts. I saw their lights (from UFOs?) during hurricane Georges on 1998!! THis is true.
Dude just go to sleep
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1017
1365. EricSFL
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Got your attention didn't it? LOL
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Quoting RMM34667:


Since it is Hurricane Season, and PR and the region is in the TROPICS, prone to experience Tropical Cyclones, shouldn't they be buying water, food and other supplies for the CHANCE that something may effect them? That is what we do here in FL.. If I was in that region I would certainly be checking my supplies right now.

This person is just saying this to get people to bite. Ignore and move on. This is what we call, a Troll.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Pst, you can block as many as you like, it just keeps adding. The giving this site gives never ends. lol


To block, or to be blocked, that is the question.
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1360. barbamz
Quoting P451:


Circulation looks pretty good at around 12.5N/50W. If anything that SW to NE surge of dry air may be doing 91L a favor - by allowing the 12.5/50 circulation to become dominant by way of putting an end to it's twin circulation further east that has been a part of 91L for quite some time.

What you may have seen as a large broad circulation which did exist - you might have missed that there were two smaller twin circulations within that.



Yes I've noticed the two circulations (Levy pointed them out). But the one who will win, will have to manage to restructure the system.
Anyway: Good night to all. Has been an interesting night.
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Quoting IFuSAYso:


I sell the troll triple action variety, CS gas/foam/marking dye. The marking dye does not wash off, it wears off. It may last 'til next season.


military die cutting prussian Blue works too...and it too has to wear off...have soaked many a guys blue boxers in it when they tried to make life hard for me saying a woman didn't belong in a machine shop, esp on a ship...painted the inside of their blue ball caps too...it reactivates each time it gets wet...ever seen a pale faced freckle specked dork of a guy with a blue stripe across his forehead during an inspection? oh yeah...works great on trolls too :)
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Convection lacking at the moment, however, I expect this system to be better organized again by tomorrow morning. The slow-down of speed in the system might
have been an indication of a slight change in the environment to it's advantage. We should have a better idea later tomorrow.
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Quoting msgambler:
I said good morning to you "OLD TIMER". Pay attention.....LOL

OMG, you not calling a 35y.o guy old are ya, geez, now I do feel old.
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Quoting weatherjr:
Puerto Ricans and and other people from the NE antilles can go to work and enjoy everyday life these days. Please, do not buy bottled water or foods for the possible storm. It is not necessary, specially if danger from such a storm is non existent.


Since it is Hurricane Season, and PR and the region is in the TROPICS, prone to experience Tropical Cyclones, shouldn't they be buying water, food and other supplies for the CHANCE that something may effect them? That is what we do here in FL.. If I was in that region I would certainly be checking my supplies right now.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


I'm sold, give me twenty!

only 20? I'll have a whole freight container. I'll resell them at double the price as the season goes and and if any are left, triple the price next year.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Pst, you can block as many as you like, it just keeps adding. The giving this site gives never ends. lol
I said good morning to you "OLD TIMER". Pay attention.....LOL
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1351. j2008
Quoting IFuSAYso:


I sell the troll triple action variety, CS gas/foam/marking dye. The marking dye does not wash off, it wears off. It may last 'til next season.

I'll take one of each and a bottle of Cat 5 In Your Face, just to have as a backup. I'm thinking we will have at least one Cat 5 this year.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting AussieStorm:

Pst, you can block as many as you like, it just keeps adding. The giving this site gives never ends. lol


I've been holding those slots like they were exclusive, so this is welcome news. Now excuse me, but I have a few names to block. ;)
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.