Not a trace of Don; What's next?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:41 PM GMT on July 30, 2011

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Don is dead

Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.

NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.


Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.

The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.

What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress

Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.

Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.

Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance

A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.

If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.

Angela

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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


What time does Gonzo leave? (BTW what IS Gonzo?)


Its just code for the G-IV plane that samples the atmosphere around a storm. G is for Gonzo in military talk.
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248. DVG
Quoting Jedkins01:



I said Dr. Masters was a Medium? Because I'm pretty sure I didn't lol


If he's a medium, is he only fifty percent? :)
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Quoting scott39:
The definition of a "FISH" TC is when it doesnt hit ANY land. 91L WILL NOT be a FISH TC!!


I agree, but to some the windward / leeward islands do not count... Neither does the Bahamas or Bermuda.

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10534
Quoting panthan63:
i have been watching the world wide ocean temperature map since at least 2005 with Rita. that was one evacuation that convinced me not again. anyway, can anybody explain how cool the oceans are? usually i see 80's and up all across the oceans especially to Africa, but off africa the map appears to show 70's even low 70's. and that extends nearly halfway back to the states. and the gulf of mexico is usually the 90's. we seem to be having high atmospheric temperatures being reported but the oceans look exceptionally cool.
is this a concern, or, should i say, something to take into account for forecasting? many of the weather agencies have predicted well over double digit named storms and nearly double digit major hurricanes. is this cooler water hampering things?


I'm not an expert, but it might affect the strength of the storms to some extent, but the not the frequency. All that hurricanes need is water of about 80 degrees which it is over the entire Carri bean and Gulf of Mexico.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Is the space limited ? Just skip what you don't want to read. I don't see the problem. I don't want to read something, I don't.


Truism.

:-)
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


What time does Gonzo leave? (BTW what IS Gonzo?)


Leaves at 1:30 PM EDT tomorrow afternoon, Gonzo



Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11221
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The definition of a "FISH" TC is when it doesnt hit ANY land. 91L WILL NOT be a FISH TC!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
Quoting sunshineandshowers:



doesn't seem real!


I never remember a storm intensifiying as quickly as Muifan has. It's plum incredible. It is a Category 5 now, is it not?
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Oooo.... nice visual SunPR....like it :)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
After the Gonzo flight tomorrow afternoon, the 01/00Z models should provide a much better clue to the track of 91L, at least for 12-24 hours.


What time does Gonzo leave? (BTW what IS Gonzo?)
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Quoting HurricaneEmily:


two As, one for me and the other for Jason.
Are you two guys brothers?
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i have been watching the world wide ocean temperature map since at least 2005 with Rita. that was one evacuation that convinced me not again. anyway, can anybody explain how cool the oceans are? usually i see 80's and up all across the oceans especially to Africa, but off africa the map appears to show 70's even low 70's. and that extends nearly halfway back to the states. and the gulf of mexico is usually the 90's. we seem to be having high atmospheric temperatures being reported but the oceans look exceptionally cool.
is this a concern, or, should i say, something to take into account for forecasting? many of the weather agencies have predicted well over double digit named storms and nearly double digit major hurricanes. is this cooler water hampering things?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Quoting scott39:
Looks to be going more W
I saw that also.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi FZ. Doesn't look like too much of a recurve as of now.

Hello stormwatcher. Well, I'm trying to put a positive spin on it. I learned that while watching The Presidential debates.
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232. txjac
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
In Fukushima Prefecture, the town of Tadami issued an evacuation advisory to all of its residents — about 4,800 people in 1,800 households. Local firefighters said they were notified that one person was swept away in a mudslide.

The Meteorological Agency said some areas in the two prefectures saw precipitation of 100 mm per hour and warned that torrential rain would continue through Saturday morning.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp /cgi-bin/nn20110730a5.html
650 mm was reported in Fukushima Prefecture, farther south 1,000 mm fell.
This week, 26 inches fell in Korea, and 40 inches in Japan, all without a typhoon as the rain maker.






Wow, that is amazing. Thanks for the info
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Quoting unruly:
I didn't say Jason lives on Bermuda. Just said he watches the tropics more than you would ever think of.


Some people could watch the tropics 24/7 all season and still have no idea what they're talking about. Jason is that person.

I've been reading this blog since the spring of 2004, but you don't see me screaming hyperbole that changes completely every hour or less on everything that rolls off the coast of Africa. You *will* see me asking questions of the people who do know this stuff, in an attempt to learn to better understand the data that is posted.
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Thank you very much, Angela.

I agree that 91L is looking more and more impressive.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I agree, but when people take a dump on the blog by clogging the posting space with meaningless junk it gets a wee bit old lol.
Is the space limited ? Just skip what you don't want to read. I don't see the problem. I don't want to read something, I don't.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I think we all are developing a consensus that this thing is going to recurve. It may also indicate that the CV storms this year will recurve also. We will be able to study them in a safe environment. They will dissipate the heat of the tropics. A win-Win situation.


I wouldn't bet on all CV storms recurving. The way the season is shaping up, we'll likely see a hurricane hit the US at some point in the season.
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After the Gonzo flight tomorrow afternoon, the 01/00Z models should provide a much better clue to the track of 91L, at least for 12-24 hours.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11221
I'm giving 91L a 40% chance of hitting the U.S.
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Quoting floridaboy14:
lets get something clear here i have a vote: Do you think 91L will:
A: Recurve
b: hit the US
c: TOO FAR OUT TO TELL ITS ALL ABOUT THE TIMING!!
i'll go with C :) what about you guys?


Not feeling the recurve, or at least as much recurve as the models show. I'm going with C, it's far too early for me to form a coherent opinion on where 91L will go. I'll wait and see which cards are still in the deck tomorrow. ;)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
XXL/INV91/XX
MARK
12.45n/47.13w


Looks to be going more W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
Quoting NOLALawyer:


You know it is too early to call where this storm will go. Dr. Masters is not the ultimate authority in storms, he doesn't have a crystal ball.



I said Dr. Masters was a Medium? Because I'm pretty sure I didn't lol
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models....out to sea....its not even classified yet

get a grip guys
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LOL XTRAP (not a) Model track on ex Don
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In Fukushima Prefecture, the town of Tadami issued an evacuation advisory to all of its residents — about 4,800 people in 1,800 households. Local firefighters said they were notified that one person was swept away in a mudslide.

The Meteorological Agency said some areas in the two prefectures saw precipitation of 100 mm per hour and warned that torrential rain would continue through Saturday morning.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp /cgi-bin/nn20110730a5.html
650 mm was reported in Fukushima Prefecture, farther south 1,000 mm fell.
This week, 26 inches fell in Korea, and 40 inches in Japan, all without a typhoon as the rain maker.



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doesn't seem real!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Your welcome. I think some people need to stop taking things so serious and ease up on each other. We are not all experts which is why we are here on a weather blog trying to learn something. I guess Jason is just trying to learn too. Just kind of excitable.


I agree, but when people take a dump on the blog by clogging the posting space with meaningless junk it gets a wee bit old lol.
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I mean this may be a shot in the dark and a really bold forecast, but I'm giving 91L /Emily a 98% chance of making landfall.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I think we all are developing a consensus that this thing is going to recurve. It may also indicate that the CV storms this year will recurve also. We will be able to study them in a safe environment. They will dissipate the heat of the tropics. A win-Win situation.
Hi FZ. Doesn't look like too much of a recurve as of now.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well heres hoping for a non landfalling year for the US


and here's hoping for nothing but flopping fish
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
look at all models tune it out to sea now wow!! i am right again!!
First of all it's turn second you are looking at models that are looking at a system that has not developed as of yet. 3rd your same models are also forcasting a strong high to build in place over the western atl late next week. Let the system develope first than models can get a better grip. Remember weaker systems tend westward longer.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Dr. Masters said the most likely solution is that it will turn out to sea. GASP! OH NO, WE MUST SAY HES WRONG BECAUSE WE WANT ANOTHER HURRICANE IN FLORIDA, BUT WE WILL PRETEND WE ARE UPSET ABOUT IT TO SEEM LIKE WE DON'T WANT IT TO BE, BUT IN REALITY WE DO1!!!!!!!1111!!!


You know it is too early to call where this storm will go. Dr. Masters is not the ultimate authority in storms, he doesn't have a crystal ball.
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T.C.F.W.
XXL/INV91/XX
MARK
12.45n/47.13w


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
A little blog observation here.

First, when "Don" was called some folks were saying the NHC was padding there numbers... Now some poeple are complaining that 91L should be called TD5 (or emily)...

---

In any case, DON seems to have shown just how dry Texas is.. I cannot believe it just went "poof" at landfall.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10534
Quoting HurricaneEmily:


notice how they don't take into account this afternoon's ECM run, of which no longer shows that expected ridging, CCHS, sadly, but so, =(. Don't get me wrong, i was holding on to hope that it wouldn't head out to sea as well, however, that is no longer the case, but now the Em also begins to curve out to sea as well, -___-, you know? when the ecm and gfs agree on something, that's it, game, set, match, that's my motto, anyways.


The computer models should not be treated as law and as the end game as you seem to be doing. Keep in mind that just yesterday all models were in good consensus for a more southern track into the Eastern Caribbean. Now they have shifted today more to the north. As history has taught us with computer models, they will continue to shift gradually in time since weather patterns are so complex. Until we get a defined tropical cyclone, better data, and further in time, one should not make any declarations at this time but should be focusing on development first and the possible scenarios.

Quoting CanesfanatUT:


I admire your thought processes, sir. You are quite reasonable and deliberate, it seems. Keep it up - it will serve you well in any field/career.


Thanks man. It just makes total sense to consider all possible outcomes in any situation since you never know if and when the game could change. No point in forecasting really if you're not reasonable and deliberate with your thought processes.
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Quoting Gorty:
It's almost 5:00 guys!

I wonder if NHC will label it anything else or just keep it an invest.
i think it will remain the same for now
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Quoting unruly:
Point proven, thanks Stormwatcher.
Your welcome. I think some people need to stop taking things so serious and ease up on each other. We are not all experts which is why we are here on a weather blog trying to learn something. I guess Jason is just trying to learn too. Just kind of excitable.
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lets get something clear here i have a vote: Do you think 91L will:
A: Recurve
b: hit the US
c: TOO FAR OUT TO TELL ITS ALL ABOUT THE TIMING!!
i'll go with C :) what about you guys?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I've seen no renumber yet.


Yep, I would expect 8:00 for upgrade if it actually happens.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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