Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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D
It may have been warranted. It may take a while now.
All the modeals together "paint the picture"....each model has its own value in some part of the forecast...Some models are more reliable than others....We will no more IF the system continues to develop and the models get a better grasp
91L still not a tropical depression or storm? Wow.
It's developed two vorticies now, so HH found no westerlies. They did find TS force winds though, so when it gets rid of one vorticy we should have Emily. Hard to say how long that will take though.
No closed LLC.
Funny enough, that's what first sprung to my mind.
they are probably going back out again due to its close proximity to the islands. Should it get its act together they will have little time to prepare and some of their structures are not built like those here in the CONUS
Lol, this sums it up pretty well. At least we've gone from three to two vorticies, I guess it's getting there.
Because a lot of people including me, live on Dominica and surrounding islands and we don't want anyone to die because they believe the blue blue skies we're seeing right now mean they can go enjoy the surf, etc.
Someone needed to explain this to you?
I would actually be more inclined to say that the better circulation is the one underneath the convection, the last few frames of imagery seem to show the easterly one weakening a little.
I don't think it will happen IMO.
Time to make my Home Depot run before the masses...
whatever.... D
Aussie... Thats Highly Unlikely... I Live in South Florida and this would be Horrible......
All i want here is a drought buster.... A 40-50 mph Tropical Storm...
We are still in exceptional drought here.
I'm still not so sure that the Eastern-most circulation is not mostly mid-level.
The western-most circulation that is shooting out away from any convection will eventually die without any convection.
Jim Cantore
A few reports of scattered power outages, HVY rain, & wind across the some of the islands w/ squally wx preceding 91L have come in #Tropics
im in dominica right now! in laplaine. just had a very hheavy shower and some gusty winds. where exactly are you?
No Comment.
It's hard to say these solutions are highly unlikely when they are becoming the consistent solution. The reason that is becoming a popular solution in the models is the fact that 91L can't make up its mind and develop.
You may be right, certainly the mid-level vorticity is slightly east of the low-level vorticity. One thing's for sure, it needs to pick one soon.
that was cute
That happens - developing storms often times will shoot out their LLC when they are trying to develop a new one - especially when they are disorganized and still developing.
I would expect the new LLC to develop where the strong MLC is currently at. But it won't get a surface circulation for a while, imo.
In the short-term, nothing to impart much of a northerly component. 91L has failed to gain enough lattitude and for the time-being looks stuck on this heading.
Not to nitpick, but....
I do not know how anyone can say something that far out is highly likely or unlikely. If the models are saying it is possible, it is possible even if it isn't the most probable course. The short, short range models were wrong at developing 91L - so the way I look at it, anything is possible at the moment.
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