Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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XL/XX/INV
MARK
XX/XX
So its closed, but theres a second Circulation conflicting, I don't think it is ready yet.
and the the HH is heading that way and they will have too pass in there too get too 91L 1st
91L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
where is that at keep
I wouldn't be surprised if they do a quick investigation in that, along the way.
Looks like it is going due west?
and it's about to be released from under the heavy shear to its north.
+1. A lot of drama on this blog past 12-18 hours... lol
Carry on.....
and its not like its out of there way or any thing
this system is poorly organized and has to get rid of the system out front or the one behind to become something
you no what keep you are poorly organized so there for poof for right now
Continued off topic remarks that contribute nothing...
Check.
The vorticity map shows the wave and 91L connected at some level, but I agree they are more separate then alike.
I'm 16, so I am young as well... haha.
I agree with you, there is something going on with the CIMMS, I have noticed that as well
lol
Right! LOL! Was thinking of the more signficant one though. :-D
yup the rocking visible this morning really did tell a tale of strengthening
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
Then from there you click on something and it brings you to this:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/
kudoo's to all you young ones.
+1. There are posts containing blog drama. Then there are posts that mock or comment about the blog drama. Then there are posts commenting about the people commenting on blog drama like this one. XD
dont you think its time too upgrade too window 7 or get a nic PC that has window 7 on it XP wont be a round for evere you no
this startrd
Rocking the visible animation loop of 91L shows you just how much it has organized this morning...The convection has become better organized, the circulation has become tighter, and there are more signs of outflow and banding features.
Considering I thought recon was going out in the system a little later today, we may have a TD/TS at 2PM instead of 5PM.
How did you save the GIF loop?
and may be 92L out in front of 91L
i completely understand - either that or ignorance in my part, blowing a forecast last year so bad lol that i've been reticent of going back to cmiss. but it's probably my lack of knowledge - this is a pretty deep field - and, also that even the most skilled predictions are at the mercy of a science that has not yet perfected the mastery of it's subject, so "educated guess" is more the key theme here
Same. There are much more people in this blog my age than I originally thought.
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