Tropical Storm Emily continues to threaten Haiti; More extreme heat in Central U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily remains unorganized this morning, and continues to linger just south of Haiti, near 17.3°N, 72.3°W. Emily is 90 miles south of Port au Prince, Haiti. Storm motion over the past 24 hours has been slow, varying between completely stopped and west to west-northwest at 5 mph. This motion (or lack thereof) is still something that the models aren't analyzing well. Satellite imagery shows that thunderstorm activity on the north side of Emily seems to be disrupted, possibly by the terrain of Hispaniola, but also potentially by the continued moderate shear to the north of the storm. Wind shear has weakened to the northwest of the storm in the past 24 hours, but it will probably not be enough to allow Emily to undergo any significant intensification. The layer of dry air that we've been talking about for the past few days has also all but dissipated to the west and north of the storm. As the National Hurricane Center has been forecasting, environmental conditions are becoming slightly more favorable for the storm. Satellite estimates of wind motion suggest that low level circulation in the storm has become very broad and extends north over Hispaniola, which indicates that there's potential for the storm to undergo a quick jump to the north, but overall the storm remains weak and this seems unlikely. Emily continues to be tilted to the east with height, but doesn't appear as sheared as yesterday morning.

Conditions in Hispaniola have surely deteriorated over the past 24 hours, however, thunderstorm activity appears to have weakened over the island this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows that cloud tops have warmed in the past 6 hours on the north side of the storm, which means that strong thunderstorms are no longer building high into the atmosphere. High resolution model forecasts (see Figure 1) have continued to predict that the heaviest rain will fall to the east of the storm. The longer Emily tracks west without taking a significant turn to the northwest, the more likely it is that Haiti will see the most extreme rainfall in the storm. Overall, 6 to 12 inches of rain is expected to fall, with local amounts up to 20 inches possible in higher terrain. Flash floods and mudslides are a serious threat.


Figure 1. Forecast radar and sea level pressure from the 06Z (2am EDT) run of the HWRF high resolution model. While I think that the model was initialized poorly and doesn't accurately represent where the storm will travel over the next 24 hours, I do think that the precipitation field is accurate. The strongest rain and winds have been on the east and north sides of the storm over the past couple of days. If Emily continues to move west before taking a significant turn to the northwest, Haiti could receive the strongest impact from the storm.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
Models continue to waver back and forth on Emily's forecast track. Yesterday evening, the HWRF model forecast Emily to cross over Hispaniola and undergoing a close encounter with the Florida coastline. Last night, the National Hurricane Center wrote that "if Emily does not begin its northwestward turn soon…a watch could be required for parts of southern Florida today." Since the storm appears to be moving slightly more to the north than west this morning, this doesn't look like it will be necessary, although the forecast remains very uncertain. In today's 06Z runs, both the HWRF and the GFDL are probably forecasting Emily to move too far north in the next 12 hours. Given the present direction and speed of the storm, it's hard to see these two models' forecasts coming to fruition. The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center is a turn to the northwest over the next 6 to 12 hours, with landfall in Haiti happening this afternoon. Beyond that, they forecast Emily to stay on a northwest course through the Bahamas, where Emily could restrengthen a bit before making a turn to the northeast on Sunday, although they qualify this forecast with the fact that it's very uncertain, and that the global models dissipate Emily after crossing Hispaniola. The official forecast track does not have Emily making any landfall in Florida, but the Miami to West Palm Beach area is still within the cone of uncertainty.

Interestingly, the models that have done the best job at predicting the track of Emily thus far are the less relied-on statistical track models—those that don't take into account any current atmospheric dynamics. If Emily remains on a west to west-northwest track today, we cannot rule out that it cross over a larger area of Cuba, approaching the southeast portion of Florida. However, given the amount of land interaction in this potential track, the probability of Emily remaining a tropical cyclone in this scenario is low.


Figure 2. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Emily at 10:15am EDT. The strongest thunderstorm activity is now in the southern portion of the storm. Thunderstorms over Hispaniola appeared to weaken this morning.

Typhoon Muifa

Typhoon Muifa continues to be a category 2 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Satellite imagery shows a well developed storm that is moving west-northwest. Over the next day, Muifa is expect to turn to the northwest as it approaches China. Today's track forecast is more north and east of yesterday's, with a brief landfall just north of Shanghai, potentially as a category 3.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite imagery of Typhoon Muifa from earlier today, plotted using NASA's new Rapid Response Web Mapping Service.

Central U.S. heatwave

The heat continues for the central U.S., where I've heard reports that local media in the region were canceling all of their outdoor shots because of the dangerous conditions. Here are some of yesterday's extreme temperatures, which were compiled by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt:

Little Rock, Arkansas set an all-time record with 114°F (the old record was 112°F set in 1986). Fort Smith, Arkansas set an all time record of 115°F (the old record was 113°F set both Tuesday and previously in 1936).

State maximum air temperatures from Wednesday:

• Arkansas: 116° at Silver Hill (4° short of state all-time record)
• Oklahoma: 115° at Atoka
• Louisiana: 111° at Caney
• Texas: 111° at Fort Worth and Wichita Falls (that also had a record high minimum of 88° this morning)
• Missouri: 109° at Branson and Ava

The heat index is also at play in this heat wave; some incredible values recorded yesterday include 126° in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, 125° in Walnut Ridge, Arkansas, and 122° in Arkadelphia, Arkansas. The GFS continues to forecast heat index values around 120° in the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend.

Angela

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So, what's next after Emily? Any models hinting at a possible storm over the next week or two? I'd imagine we'll see our first true Cape Verde storm by mid-late August, MJO forecast to be back over the Atlantic about then.
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wow look wats coming off africa!!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
my landfall for ex mistress emily still has a chance. Southwest Florida from Key West to Ft Myers
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I do not want to bring bad news to my fellow Texans but without tropical rains this year this state could get really bad by next year and we are currently in poor shape.


La Niña Watch issued: drought could continue into 2012
August 4th, 2011 at 2:49 pm by Jim Spencer under Weather

La Niña Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development La Niña conditions within the next six months.

I reported to you last month, after a NOAA drought workshop, that one climate indicator was suggesting a return to La Nina conditions this fall, but the scenario still remained unlikely.

Today the Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook says a return to La Nina conditions this fall is now a 50/50 proposition.

This is very bad news for our area and all of Texas, as the 2010-11 La Nina is the reason for our existing drought and heat wave. If we have a 2011-12 La Nina, this drought could reach epic proportions by next summer.

You’ll recall a La Nina is an expansive area of cooler-than-normal water in the Pacific Ocean. This cooling alters weather patterns across the U.S., and almost always results in drier than normal conditions for Texas and most of the South. And, when we’re drier than normal, we tend to be hotter than normal. In fact, we’ve been mostly influenced by La Nina conditions over the last five years, with a brief El Nino pattern in 2009-10, resulting in our hottest four summers on record since 2008.

Here are the details from NOAA:

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

During July 2011, ENSO-neutral was reflected in the overall pattern of small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the latest weekly Niño index values were generally near average (Fig. 2), ranging from –0.2oC (Niño-3.4) to 0.5oC (Niño-1+2). However, the subsurface oceanic heat content anomaly (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) continued to weaken and is currently near zero, which reflects the strengthening of the below-average temperatures at depth in the east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). The atmospheric circulation anomalies were more variable during the past month, but the monthly means still reflect aspects of La Niña. For example, convection continued to be enhanced over eastern Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, and generally suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific, mainly south of the equator (Fig. 5). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central tropical Pacific. Thus, while tropical Pacific oceanic anomalies indicate ENSO-neutral, the atmospheric patterns continue to reflect La Niña-like conditions.

The majority of ENSO models, and all multi-model average forecasts (indicated by thicker lines, Fig. 6), indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Niño-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC). Beyond the early fall, the forecasts are less certain with half of the models persisting ENSO-neutral conditions continuously through early 2012. Along with a few other models, the latest runs from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) models predict La Niña to re-develop during the fall (Fig. 7). This forecast is also supported by the ongoing La Niña-like tropical atmosphere, subsurface temperature trends, and the historical tendency for significant wintertime La Niña episodes to be followed by relatively weaker La Niña episodes the following winter. Therefore, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 September 2011. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.








So La Nina is not only responsible for more named storms in the NATL, but its also responsible for severe droughts in Texas, interesting though because we are in a Neutral Year; and with predictions for another La Nina next year, one must wonder when the drought will end and when will Texas return to normal rainfall averages?
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1121. scott39
Emily is no where near Completely dead yet!!
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Levi,
Now that Emily is gone, when do you expect our Next storm(Franklin)?
Is there any models forecasting a storm in the coming days?
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1119. amd
IMO, the only chance that Emily has to regenerate is that if its 500-700 mb circulation which is currently over Hispaniola can make it into the Atlantic, and a new LLC forms after that happens.

But, right now, it looks like Hispaniola has claimed another weak tropical cyclone.
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nothing on the GFS next week?
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Emily has been going through this routine for about a week now, only this time She got weaker due to the land interaction. Now she is starting to get Her act together as She pulls away from Haiti. It will take Her 48hrs or so to spin up and wherever She goes She will be a Cane.
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Quoting Levi32:


If any part of the circulation associated with Emily redeveloped, it would be named Emily. I mean that we may never see regeneration.
AT the very least, you're looking at a very organized tropical wave, Sir.
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1114. IKE

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Is she really undeniably dead?
She gone.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Is she really undeniably dead?
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1111. scott39
Lets not forget about good ol Donny boy!! He never gave up. I dont think Emily will either.
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1110. Levi32
Quoting ElConando:


When you mean the end of emily, do you mean just the end of the whole thing or that it would get a new name if it redeveloped?


If any part of the circulation associated with Emily redeveloped, it would be named Emily. I mean that we may never see regeneration.
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Quoting Elaine Benes final word on The Soup Natzi episode - "NEXT"
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1108. IKE
...EMILY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting stormpetrol:


Trust me Baha I never want to experience a Hurricane like Ivan here again and I don't wish storms here either, I just call it like I see even if I'm wrong, probably just the trauma of it all, just sames like storms are attracted to our part of the world, I guess we're part of Hurricane alley one might say, yes I'm probably a westcaster in general , but a wishcaster, no way, not for me or anyone else, hope that clarifies!


I can only imagine.
Eyewall of Ivan
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Quoting Levi32:
Watching visible satellite, the low-level winds seem to reveal a significant cyclonic turning encompassing eastern Cuba and Jamaica. This is likely where Emily should have been by now had she not fallen apart, and this signals to me that the mid-level part of the storm may never recouple with the area of lowest pressures. Regeneration may still be possible, but now that the mid-level center is moving over the very tallest portions of Hispaniola, we may have seen the end of Emily. We shall see.


Interesting, I noticed the same thing.
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Quoting tkeith:
lots of SAL out in front of it, but it sure looks healthy...


SAL's not bad actually. There's actually little to no SAL off Africa at the moment, thanks to pre-Emily.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24199
Just found this absolutely awesome photo gallery of Hurricane photos from orbit on the Boston globe site. Some of the photo's are unreal. From 2008 before Ike made landfall.

Hurricanes, as seen from orbit
Link
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/hurrican es_as_seen_from_orbit.html

My favorite, Hurricane Felix
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I won't be one of them... I've seen it before.

Actually, KOTG, Emily doesn't look much worse today than she did around this time of the afternoon almost any day this week....

This looks closest. Petrel, I do recall somebody saying u were a Cayman wishcaster because you always say the storm will go west. Now I don't know if that's true [never struck me that way] but it seems u've been pretty good about calling the ones that are "supposed" to turn.... must be the Ivan experience...


Trust me Baha I never want to experience a Hurricane like Ivan here again and I don't wish storms here either, I just call it like I see even if I'm wrong, probably just the trauma of it all, just sames like storms are attracted to our part of the world, I guess we're part of Hurricane alley one might say, yes I'm probably a westcaster in general , but a wishcaster, no way, not for me or anyone else, hope that clarifies!
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Quoting Levi32:
Watching visible satellite, the low-level winds seem to reveal a significant cyclonic turning encompassing eastern Cuba and Jamaica. This is likely where Emily should have been by now had she not fallen apart, and this signals to me that the mid-level part of the storm may never recouple with the area of lowest pressures. Regeneration may still be possible, but now that the mid-level center is moving over the very tallest portions of Hispaniola, we may have seen the end of Emily. We shall see.


When you mean the end of emily, do you mean just the end of the whole thing or that it would get a new name if it redeveloped?
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That spot of convection on the western isthmus of Haiti is not too far from where the HH showed the lowest pressures on their last trip in (when they could not find a closed circulation). While I do not see any spin to those clouds at this time, I guess it could restrengthen in time. But first, it has to cross about 61 miles of hilly/mountainous terrain (assuming it stays on a WNW heading)... or roughly about 4 hours on land).
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
I do not want to bring bad news to my fellow Texans but without tropical rains this year this state could get really bad by next year and we are currently in poor shape.


La Niña Watch issued: drought could continue into 2012
August 4th, 2011 at 2:49 pm by Jim Spencer under Weather

La Niña Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development La Niña conditions within the next six months.

I reported to you last month, after a NOAA drought workshop, that one climate indicator was suggesting a return to La Nina conditions this fall, but the scenario still remained unlikely.

Today the Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook says a return to La Nina conditions this fall is now a 50/50 proposition.

This is very bad news for our area and all of Texas, as the 2010-11 La Nina is the reason for our existing drought and heat wave. If we have a 2011-12 La Nina, this drought could reach epic proportions by next summer.

You’ll recall a La Nina is an expansive area of cooler-than-normal water in the Pacific Ocean. This cooling alters weather patterns across the U.S., and almost always results in drier than normal conditions for Texas and most of the South. And, when we’re drier than normal, we tend to be hotter than normal. In fact, we’ve been mostly influenced by La Nina conditions over the last five years, with a brief El Nino pattern in 2009-10, resulting in our hottest four summers on record since 2008.

Here are the details from NOAA:

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

During July 2011, ENSO-neutral was reflected in the overall pattern of small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the latest weekly Niño index values were generally near average (Fig. 2), ranging from –0.2oC (Niño-3.4) to 0.5oC (Niño-1+2). However, the subsurface oceanic heat content anomaly (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) continued to weaken and is currently near zero, which reflects the strengthening of the below-average temperatures at depth in the east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). The atmospheric circulation anomalies were more variable during the past month, but the monthly means still reflect aspects of La Niña. For example, convection continued to be enhanced over eastern Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, and generally suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific, mainly south of the equator (Fig. 5). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central tropical Pacific. Thus, while tropical Pacific oceanic anomalies indicate ENSO-neutral, the atmospheric patterns continue to reflect La Niña-like conditions.

The majority of ENSO models, and all multi-model average forecasts (indicated by thicker lines, Fig. 6), indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Niño-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC). Beyond the early fall, the forecasts are less certain with half of the models persisting ENSO-neutral conditions continuously through early 2012. Along with a few other models, the latest runs from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) models predict La Niña to re-develop during the fall (Fig. 7). This forecast is also supported by the ongoing La Niña-like tropical atmosphere, subsurface temperature trends, and the historical tendency for significant wintertime La Niña episodes to be followed by relatively weaker La Niña episodes the following winter. Therefore, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 September 2011. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.








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1098. tkeith
Quoting Levi32:
Watching visible satellite, the low-level winds seem to reveal a significant cyclonic turning encompassing eastern Cuba and Jamaica. This is likely where Emily should have been by now had she not fallen apart, and this signals to me that the mid-level part of the storm may never recouple with the area of lowest pressures. Regeneration may still be possible, but now that the mid-level center is moving over the very tallest portions of Hispaniola, we may have seen the end of Emily. We shall see.
is it time to break out the bugle yet Levi?...I play a mean "Taps"

:)
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we are prayin that the remnants of Emily head our way to the lower florida Keys. Keys West is infested with this little pestiferous bug called the 'white fly'. This due to the island only receieveing 1/3rd of its annual rainfall. This invasive bug has covered many of our vunerable native trees and palms, weakening them and creating a white, gooey mess on EVERYTHING below.
Please post Emily, come pay us a visit? Any guesses where it's headed????
Member Since: September 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
She's still not giving up LOL.
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1095. tkeith
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Watch this wave closely.. the big white/red blob over Africa. The GFS develops this.
lots of SAL out in front of it, but it sure looks healthy...
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1094. Levi32
Watching visible satellite, the low-level winds seem to reveal a significant cyclonic turning encompassing eastern Cuba and Jamaica. This is likely where Emily should have been by now had she not fallen apart, and this signals to me that the mid-level part of the storm may never recouple with the area of lowest pressures. Regeneration may still be possible, but now that the mid-level center is moving over the very tallest portions of Hispaniola, we may have seen the end of Emily. We shall see.
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There will be a circle around emily's remnants I'm assuming. Probably will be given a low percentage like 20-30%.
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It seems though the season has been active. Most of the storms that have formed have been subjected to a hostile environment. Its likely to change soon, but when?
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Watch this wave closely.. the big white/red blob over Africa. The GFS develops this.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24199
Quoting Hurricanejer95:


Its not Peter, the P storm this year is Philippe, coming in October



I know , just hope it doesn't Peter out :)
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somebody shoot me a email when we have emily again tonight.........lolololol
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1088. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1075. HurricaneHunterJoe 10:19 PM GMT on August 04, 2011
When Emily re-strengthens will she keep the same name? Yes?


only if a new center forms and not identified with the remnant low center of Emily will it get a new name
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Quoting DFWjc:


it looks like a comma...


Thats what she said
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Quoting PRZEDCASTER:
Oh so sad for the blog , time for something new to crank this place up. Waiting for the P storm and I hope it's name isn't Peter.


Its not Peter, the P storm this year is Philippe, coming in October

No Peter until 2015
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Link I know emily gone right now but katrina can tell you the same thing. Dissipated and look wat happen. check the link
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SW tip of Haiti heading NW. that is the area to watch.
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Oh so sad for the blog , time for something new to crank this place up. Waiting for the P storm and I hope it's name isn't Peter.
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Quoting DFWjc:


it looks like a comma...
Sorry I keep asking questions.But is it the ball of deep convection that seems to be jumping out of the storm?And is that where you see possibly anothe vortice if I am saying that right.TIA
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Quoting RitaEvac:
West she blows was right the whole time...lol

yes we were! pluses for you
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thats gotta be the bizzare back to back tropical storms i've ever seen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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1079. Hattie
Guys, I think Emmy is trying to come back from the dead. Run the RBG loop and look at about 18.2 73.5
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here comes emily again.............lol
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
When Emily re-strengthens will she keep the same name? Yes?


Yep
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Quoting DFWjc:


Texas Thermometer - Ft Worth High today - 110



'Tis brutal. Hope those blackouts don't occur as well. With minimum lows at night in the 80's, there would be little relief.

ERCOT warns of ‘high probability’ of rolling blackouts as heat wave strains power grid

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.