Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Depression Emily Reforms, Rain for the Bahamas
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:28 AM GMT on August 07, 2011 +17
As of 11PM EDT, Tropical Depression Emily was located at 27.4N, 78.2W, 70 miles NNE of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. It was moving north at 8 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1011 mb. No watches or warnings are in effect for Emily at this time.


Figure 1 IR satellite view of Emily taken at 1200AM EDT, August 7, 2011

The remnants of Tropical Storm Emily were recognized as a tropical depression after analysis of surface observations, satellite imagery, and Hurricane Hunter flights showed that Emily had achieved a closed circulation again. However, at this time, it is not expected to do much beyond raining heavily (1-3 inches, 6 inches in isolated regions) over the Bahamas. As Figure 2 shows, NHC forecasts Emily to move north and then sharply eastwards before dissipating as it merges with a front. The westerly wind shear associated with this front will be the likely cause for Emily's second demise.


Figure 2 Official track forecast of Emily.

As Figure 3 shows, the concerns for rain from Emily is justified based on past behavior. Satellite estimates shows that on August 4, 3-5 inches of rain fell just south of Hispaniola, with 1-2 inches falling on the southern Dominican Republic.


Figure 3 Satellite-estimated precipitation (mm) for Thursday, August 4 using the CMORPH techniques. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center

If the situation warrants, we will have a new blog entry Sunday. Otherwise, we will resume the normal posting schedule on Monday.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver
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701. pottery 9:36 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting MississippiWx:
So glad to see Emily finally gone. Now the BLOG can rest in peace for a few days...

92L is going to have an uphill battle with the Saharan Air Layer it's fighting against.

True!
Although the SAL is there, and pretty minimal actually, there is a pool of dry air associated with that and 92L will be hard pressed to find enough moisture to do anything over the next few days.

Just sayin', LOL....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712
702. aislinnpaps 9:36 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
aislnipps- this is the second flair-up. It gets black, then steamy, then gone....now it's all fiery n black smoke again.

Just woods in that area, mostly.


Fire and drought are not good together. Hope you're not in one of the drought areas. We're under a burn ban and I've a National Forest north and west of me. Of course the house fire when I lost everything last November has me a bit fire-shy.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438
703. NICycloneChaser 9:38 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting tropicalweather2011:
Remnants Of Emily
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 31.1N 74.1W — Movement: NE
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.


Please God no.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1957
704. MississippiWx 9:38 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting pottery:

Can we get back to the topic of AGW then??

hehehehh


Lol...Don't get Neapolitan stirred up. :-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 8651
705. Mucinex 9:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
aislnipps- this is the second flair-up. It gets black, then steamy, then gone....now it's all fiery n black smoke again.

Just woods in that area, mostly.

Black smoke is indicitive of a petroleum products. Something you usually see in a structure fire, tires etc,.
Grey or white is wood, grass, etc.
A mix is both.
Black-black smoke is extremely dangerous for your lungs. If your seeing that stay inside unless you have an emergency.
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
707. Landfall2004 9:43 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting tropicalweather2011:
Remnants Of Emily
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 31.1N 74.1W — Movement: NE
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.


GOTTA LAUGH. Getting 29 mph winds and 45 mph gusts here in Stuart, FL from thunderstorms and had just a breeze from Emily!!!!!!!
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
708. redwagon 9:43 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
aislnipps- this is the second flair-up. It gets black, then steamy, then gone....now it's all fiery n black smoke again.

Just woods in that area, mostly.

Steamy = white? That means sombody's putting water on it. Goes back to dark grey? That water is evaped; oils in trees and you're back to burning carbon.

Imagine the tailpipes of any 60s or 70s muscle car.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1444
709. IKE 9:43 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Please God no.
OMG....please be over Emily. Retire the name out of 2011's boring version.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
710. blsealevel 9:43 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting Mucinex:

Black smoke is indicitive of a petroleum products. Something you usually see in a structure fire, tires etc,.
Grey or white is wood, grass, etc.
A mix is both.
Black-black smoke is extremely dangerous for your lungs. If your seeing that stay inside unless you have an emergency.


He is right about this thick black smoke means somthing other then brush and or trees maybe a house fire?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916
711. HCW 9:44 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1280
712. aquak9 9:45 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
aisnlippsn- sorry to hear about the house fire. I've heard the post-traumatic effects of that, go on a long time.

Mucinex- our woods are pine and thick palm, and palmetto. They burn BLACK. Google-mapped the area, no structures, just woods. Just odd to have thunder on one side of me, and a fire on the other.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008
715. stormpetrol 9:46 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Yellow circle at 7pm cst near 12.5N/47W?10-20%
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6404
716. IKE 9:46 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    

Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Hence she'll be back in 6 years lol sorry all.
***reaches for Seagram 7***
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
717. Mucinex 9:47 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

Not so fast lol WAY TOO Early to call this a fish IMO.

Lol. Yeah, it is a bit early. But we haven't seen a big fishcast or the fishcasters so far this year. A little variety is always fun.
Besides, I think it was the GFS this morning had something going in at Cancun at 384hrs. So you never know.;)
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
718. Patrap 9:48 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Emily Rigby died in the Atlantic and was Buried along with her name

Nobody came
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626
719. rod2635 9:48 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Well it seems we have a wait for something real vs q ghost to debate on a 168hr model run. We could all post and debate September predictions, very detailed mind you, with a prize for the winner....what would be suitable?
Member Since: January 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
720. GTcooliebai 9:50 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

Not so fast lol WAY TOO Early to call this a fish IMO.
And it's too early to even call this a storm until more dynamical models jump on board, so far nadda from the ECMWF...http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ecmwf/fcst/ar chive/11080512/123.html
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5203
721. Mucinex 9:53 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
aisnlippsn- sorry to hear about the house fire. I've heard the post-traumatic effects of that, go on a long time.

Mucinex- our woods are pine and thick palm, and palmetto. They burn BLACK. Google-mapped the area, no structures, just woods. Just odd to have thunder on one side of me, and a fire on the other.

Yep, pine in particular is a b!@ch that way. Still bad for you. Good luck!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
724. Hurricanes12 9:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Big Spring, Texas To Recycle Urine In The Face Of Massive Drought



The thought of drinking your own urine might be disgusting to some people, but one Texas town thinks it might be the best option in the face of one of the state's worst droughts ever.

Big Spring, Texas, home to the Colorado River Municipal Water District, will be experimenting with reprocessing wastewater produced by the town's 27,000 residents, according to Discovery News. Sewage that is typically fed into a creek will be captured by a plant the district has just broken ground on.

"We're taking treated effluent (wastewater), normally discharged into a creek, and blending it with (traditionally supplied potable) water," district manager John Grant told Discovery News.

While the system will be recycling residents' urine along with other components of their waste, it's not nearly as direct as NASA's urine recycling system, according to Space.com. On the last shuttle mission, astronauts experimented with a Forward Osmosis Bag that processed astronauts' urine and sweat, creating potable water in microgravity.

When asked about that process, Grant told Discovery News, "I don't think I could sell that one."

However, with the continued drought in Texas, who knows what measures locals may have to resort to. Reuters has reported that the triple-digit heatwave that's gripping much of the U.S. has been anchored in Texas and has limited the state to just 40 percent of its normal rainfall for this time of year.

In addition, the lack of moisture on the ground has limited the area's capacity to create clouds, thus making daytime rainfall almost impossible, and perpetuating the drought.

According to the Associated Press, a U.N. climate panel plans to release a report in November examining the link between climate change and extreme weather events.


Link
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
727. NICycloneChaser 9:58 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting P451:


LOL. She's going to follow that steering current eastward, slip south through the gap, and have another go at the Caribbean!





I kid, of course, I hope lol...


Lol, that would be something. Julia actually attempted something similar last year, never made it though.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1957
728. blsealevel 9:59 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Big Spring, Texas To Recycle Urine In The Face Of Massive Drought



The thought of drinking your own urine might be disgusting to some people, but one Texas town thinks it might be the best option in the face of one of the state's worst droughts ever.

Big Spring, Texas, home to the Colorado River Municipal Water District, will be experimenting with reprocessing wastewater produced by the town's 27,000 residents, according to Discovery News. Sewage that is typically fed into a creek will be captured by a plant the district has just broken ground on.

"We're taking treated effluent (wastewater), normally discharged into a creek, and blending it with (traditionally supplied potable) water," district manager John Grant told Discovery News.

While the system will be recycling residents' urine along with other components of their waste, it's not nearly as direct as NASA's urine recycling system, according to Space.com. On the last shuttle mission, astronauts experimented with a Forward Osmosis Bag that processed astronauts' urine and sweat, creating potable water in microgravity.

When asked about that process, Grant told Discovery News, "I don't think I could sell that one."

However, with the continued drought in Texas, who knows what measures locals may have to resort to. Reuters has reported that the triple-digit heatwave that's gripping much of the U.S. has been anchored in Texas and has limited the state to just 40 percent of its normal rainfall for this time of year.

In addition, the lack of moisture on the ground has limited the area's capacity to create clouds, thus making daytime rainfall almost impossible, and perpetuating the drought.

According to the Associated Press, a U.N. climate panel plans to release a report in November examining the link between climate change and extreme weather events.


Link


lol i would have to agree with this guy this isnt going to sell eaisly
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916
729. farhaonhebrew 10:02 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Strongest July hurricane: Emily, 2005 161mph top sustained winds - previous record: Dennis 150 mph 2005; Hurricane #1 140 mph in 1926.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
730. FSUCOOPman 10:03 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
Emily Rigby died in the Atlantic and was Buried along with her name

Nobody came


All of the lonely people
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 332
731. blsealevel 10:04 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
I have some family in Tx, they have a system that they use their wast water for watering their fields and it also supplys their paster ponds for their horses and cattle
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916
732. Patrap 10:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Department of Defense
Office of Civil Defense
Motion Picture Service

A Hurricane Called Betsy Sept 1965

AVA16542VNB1 - produced in 1966

Recounts Hurricane Betsy's 3,000-mile trip from the Caribbean through the Bahamas, Miami, the Florida Keys, and along the Gulf Coast to New Orleans and Baton Rouge.







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626
733. StormHype 10:08 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting blsealevel:


lol i would have to agree with this guy this isnt going to sell eaisly


Why not? The Japanese are synthesizing meat from human feces. No joke. Once the Chinese get a hold of the recipe, beware of Walmart.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1163
734. Patrap 10:09 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


All of the lonely people



: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626
735. Vincent4989 10:09 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Big Spring, Texas To Recycle Urine In The Face Of Massive Drought



The thought of drinking your own urine might be disgusting to some people, but one Texas town thinks it might be the best option in the face of one of the state's worst droughts ever.

Big Spring, Texas, home to the Colorado River Municipal Water District, will be experimenting with reprocessing wastewater produced by the town's 27,000 residents, according to Discovery News. Sewage that is typically fed into a creek will be captured by a plant the district has just broken ground on.

"We're taking treated effluent (wastewater), normally discharged into a creek, and blending it with (traditionally supplied potable) water," district manager John Grant told Discovery News.

While the system will be recycling residents' urine along with other components of their waste, it's not nearly as direct as NASA's urine recycling system, according to Space.com. On the last shuttle mission, astronauts experimented with a Forward Osmosis Bag that processed astronauts' urine and sweat, creating potable water in microgravity.

When asked about that process, Grant told Discovery News, "I don't think I could sell that one."

However, with the continued drought in Texas, who knows what measures locals may have to resort to. Reuters has reported that the triple-digit heatwave that's gripping much of the U.S. has been anchored in Texas and has limited the state to just 40 percent of its normal rainfall for this time of year.

In addition, the lack of moisture on the ground has limited the area's capacity to create clouds, thus making daytime rainfall almost impossible, and perpetuating the drought.

According to the Associated Press, a U.N. climate panel plans to release a report in November examining the link between climate change and extreme weather events.


Link

It's kinda eeeeewwwww but great idea.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
736. HarryMc 10:16 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
Department of Defense
Office of Civil Defense
Motion Picture Service

A Hurricane Called Betsy Sept 1965

AVA16542VNB1 - produced in 1966

Recounts Hurricane Betsy's 3,000-mile trip from the Caribbean through the Bahamas, Miami, the Florida Keys, and along the Gulf Coast to New Orleans and Baton Rouge.









1938 Around here...

Member Since: March 30, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 325
737. oreodogsghost 10:17 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Not just Big Spring, but several west Texas towns gearing up to recycle their poopywater.
Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 1449
738. oreodogsghost 10:18 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Poopywater is an official trademarked Texas word!
Member Since: February 2, 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 1449
739. GeoffreyWPB 10:18 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Love it...72 rain-cooled degrees!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127
740. islander101010 10:20 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
emily left something behind not that texas crap either good soaking e cen fl.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2968
742. aislinnpaps 10:21 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Love it...72 rain-cooled degrees!


P~~~ 101 plus heat index here
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438
743. Dakster 10:21 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


All of the lonely people


Struggling with loneliness, well you are not alone, and yet you are alone, so very alone...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4942
744. HarryMc 10:22 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting oreodogsghost:
Poopywater is an official trademarked Texas word!


Actually that technology has matured quite nicely. That's what the astronauts on the International Space Station drink.
Member Since: March 30, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 325
745. islander101010 10:22 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
sorry texans rooting for you get your share
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2968
746. keithneese 10:23 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yeah, uh-huh! That's why I pay the extra for drinking water from a jug!



+1billion lol
Member Since: February 7, 2008 Posts: 64 Comments: 154
747. farhaonhebrew 10:28 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
Department of Defense
Office of Civil Defense
Motion Picture Service

A Hurricane Called Betsy Sept 1965

AVA16542VNB1 - produced in 1966

Recounts Hurricane Betsy's 3,000-mile trip from the Caribbean through the Bahamas, Miami, the Florida Keys, and along the Gulf Coast to New Orleans and Baton Rouge.







as Cat 1 that was the last hurricane to hit Puerto Rico in the 50s , 33 years later Hugo in the late 80s Cat 2 -1989. After that the 90s was horrible;Marylin 1995 Cat 3, Hortense 1996 Cat 1, George 1998 Cat 3. The begining of the new milenium was quiet except for strong tropical storm Jeanne on 2005. The last Cat 5 to hit P.R was San Felipe 1928, when will be the next? who knows...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
748. Bielle 10:29 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting Skeptic33:


expect more new studies like this to come out in the near future showing that mainstream medical establishment was very wrong about the amount of vitamin D that we really need... it's much higher.



May I suggest such advice should be in a private email?
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 601
749. PcolaDan 10:29 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yeah, uh-huh! That's why I pay the extra for drinking water from a jug!


But where does their water come from? Just sa...(never mind)

(edit: forgot the LOL) - LOL
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
750. Grothar 10:32 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Models seem pretty consistent on the early runs. I wouldn't be surprised in there might/may/possibly, conceivably, theoretically, be two circles either tonight or tomorrow, followed by a 3rd in the coming week.




***This statement is not a statement of fact, but just the humble opinion of an old man who wants to contribute something to the blog for open discussion.***
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553
751. blsealevel 10:32 PM GMT on August 07, 2011    
Quoting StormHype:


Why not? The Japanese are synthesizing meat from human feces. No joke. Once the Chinese get a hold of the recipe, beware of Walmart.


Noway; why? did their food supplies get that contaminated that they must go through such extreams.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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