Tropical Depression Emily Reforms, Rain for the Bahamas
As of 11PM EDT, Tropical Depression Emily was located at 27.4N, 78.2W, 70 miles NNE of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. It was moving north at 8 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1011 mb. No watches or warnings are in effect for Emily at this time.
Figure 1 IR satellite view of Emily taken at 1200AM EDT, August 7, 2011
The remnants of Tropical Storm Emily were recognized as a tropical depression after analysis of surface observations, satellite imagery, and Hurricane Hunter flights showed that Emily had achieved a closed circulation again. However, at this time, it is not expected to do much beyond raining heavily (1-3 inches, 6 inches in isolated regions) over the Bahamas. As Figure 2 shows, NHC forecasts Emily to move north and then sharply eastwards before dissipating as it merges with a front. The westerly wind shear associated with this front will be the likely cause for Emily's second demise.
Figure 2 Official track forecast of Emily.
As Figure 3 shows, the concerns for rain from Emily is justified based on past behavior. Satellite estimates shows that on August 4, 3-5 inches of rain fell just south of Hispaniola, with 1-2 inches falling on the southern Dominican Republic.
Figure 3 Satellite-estimated precipitation (mm) for Thursday, August 4 using the CMORPH techniques. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center
If the situation warrants, we will have a new blog entry Sunday. Otherwise, we will resume the normal posting schedule on Monday.
Thanks for reading,
Dr. Rob Carver
Reader Comments
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Noway; why? did their food supplies get that contaminated that they must go through such extreams.
The important thing to do is to prepare every season for anything that any given season will offer.
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Yeah, it then came and ruined our day in MS.
When it parked over the Gulfport/Biloxi area East of here one could see the Whole Left side from N to S, on the Horizon and 30-60 degrees up easily from Apex to trailing away.
The cyclone from afar is awesome stuff as well.
Georges making landfall in Biloxi, Mississippi
Yes, that is amazing.The eye moved thru all the Cordillera Central mountains that are on average around 3000 feet tall.
I see it north of PR with a closed isobar, but 1012mb isn't exactly deep. XD
Astonishing that they left our Project Stormfury's seeding of Betsey right before she looped sw towards Miami. At the time, the project of seeding the storm was very BIG news.
I'd bet my deed to the house in which I live in for this to indeed happen. And I'll laugh in all of your faces after you all say "Emily's gone!" and "Hooray! No more headaches!" :D
And that thing to the northwest of the 1012 mb low, is Emily after traveling around the Bermuda high XD. haha :)
Not even with an isobar?
Thanks in advance.
Even made it into an episode of Beverly Hillbillies: 'we're going drop silver iodide right into Daisy's eye!
At 5 PM NHC wrote the last advisory on TD Emily. There is new invest 92L in Eastern Atlantic.
Also it needs to pull on the ITCZ/Monsoon Trof and get a hold of its convection to fight off the SAL, almost looks disconnected from it.
Most models do that in between getting new information.
HIP HIP HURRAY !!!!!!!!!!!!! Thank goodness for that !!!!!
Link
We have some smart whipper snappers who couild do this easily I bet.
Maybe put a wu roving weather station up there.
Emily dissipated, and reformed, and dissipated again, but caused major flooding on Hispaniola. We now have Invest 92L out in the eastern Atlantic.
For Emily, whenever I may find her
Yeah, but the 18z GFS has been pretty gung-ho on development with these waves.
One of them will have the potential in the coming week. We'll see.
The ITCZ is climbing northwards.
It's very far north...even into the Caribbean.
Although there is a possibility that some unforeseen conditions could reduce hurricane activity during the peak of the season, I wouldn't place bets on it. And even in the scarcest of years it only takes 1 hurricane hitting land to make a mess of things.
Practically no model support and a decent deal of SAL/Dry air ahead of it.
Atlantic is pretty quiet for now. Could stay that way for another week.
Yeah, I mean the E storm last year passed tru my general area on August 31 and last year was pretty active and now we are waiting for the F storm.
That last part sounded wrong... XD
Inpressive at that time Pat as almost a cat 5. But thankfully,it weakened as it moved thru the Leewards and PR didn't have to deal with a major.
Not even the wave behind 92L?
Impact by Area Country, State, Deaths, Damage
Antigua and Barbuda 3 $159.9 million
Guadeloupe 0 $22 million
St. Kitts and Nevis 5 $484 million
Dominican Republic 380 $1.2 billion
Haiti 209 $179 million
Bahamas 1 Unknown
Cuba 6 $305.8 million
United States Alabama 1 $201.4 million
Florida 0 $472.1 million
Georgia 0 $4.3 million
Louisiana 3 $30.1 million
Mississippi 0 $676.8 million
Puerto Rico 7 $1.8 billion
U.S. Virgin Islands 0 $2 million
Total 604 $5.9 billion
Ex Emily is 400+ miles to your northeast. Just typical t-storms
Viewing: 751 - 801
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