Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC
Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.
Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .
Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.
Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.
New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It's 14 days out from now. It's pretty likely that wouldn't even happen at all.
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
IF the wave near Africa maintains convection over the next two or three days, then it should have more favorable conditions.
Just monsoonal convection, nothing will come of it.
Nice vis
oky
Yep. It is scary all over. I haven't been to the lake we usually fish in, Sam Rayburn in east TX, since May. In May there were bridges over sand dunes. Most of the boat ramps were inaccessible. I can't imagine how dry it is now. But someone drove their truck across it on the 4th of July. Scary is an apt description. It's just awful.
Here's the site. :D
the system isn't what worries me as much as the appearance of that blocking ridge...the sheer fact that models are expecting it to happen...i know and understand that models can be wrong...i know weather changes on a daily basis...i know the models cannot predict the future...but i also know that they are basing that information on what is heading toward the east...what it has done...the strength of it...will it cross an area condusive to weaken or strengthen, etc...10 days out is a very long time...but still... it is getting to close to "that time of year" for the east coast
Hey stormkat I know that's you.
Thanks.
Eventual track will depend on strength of the system, environmental conditions, and timing. What this should be telling us is that the season is changing gears and more intense storms will likely form in the near future. August 15 through October 15 is the climatological peak months for hurricane formation. With above normal SST's in the Carib and the GOM we should all be vigilant and watchful if you live in a coastal area!!!
She's persistent.
I dont think 10 days is long at all..next Monday we would have an idea if its coming to the east coast or not..
We'll find out if it gets into the gulf. Most storms encounter the current for a time given that it's in the middle of the gulf, but again, such a fine detail is impossible to know 15 days in advance.
Also of interest to me is this system in the EPac just south of southern MX. It's got a fairly strong pulse with it, and is tipped for moderate development. If this develops, IMO this will be the last serious EPac development for a while, maybe the rest of the season if that la nina cooling continues.
Shear Tendency.
Alexander Haig.
Here ya go!!!
10 days out of an entire life is not a long time... 10 days in the life of a "possible" storm is a very long time...it hasnt developed yet...this is what models expect due to time of year...things change daily...if you put 10 days in the life of any storm that has been given a number this year...it didn't amount to much...give a storm like hugo or Andrew 10 days...then there is a difference...
Mexico was hit hard in 2010 primarily from hurricane Alex and hurricane Karl, so was St Lucia and sections of Canada. Its not always about the US.
Link
I need proof stormkat....Tropicfreak
OH MY GOD
With 93L disorganized, it's pretty hard to tell whether the anticyclone is over it or not.
Now that would be cool, and scary, first hurricane of the season becomes a major, only this time it was in August.
Well that's not really fair because it already has a very low chance of developing before 75W anyway. The real time to see what this system has is when it gets into the western Caribbean. We saw how fast it came back from the dead today. It doesn't really matter how it looks tomorrow. It will matter more when it's actually in a favorable environment without the strong trade winds. I already expect it to look rather shabby in 24 hours.
Now I'm convinced that you're stormkat.
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