Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting HurricaneNewb:


ouch the showercurtains JFV dont even go there

LOL

Diz was what was rattling the masses earlier today.

Whoppa Choppa

Quoting PcolaDan:


Did Grothar say you could use his word? :|

please put a leash on that dog; he's getting me dizzzzzy.

At 1800 UTC, 15 August 2011, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 13.6°N and 59.2°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 19 kt at a bearing of 275 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.

Quoting Patrap:
Diz was what was rattling the masses earlier today.

Whoppa Choppa

and still no rain in Houston

15 days a really long Putt

Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't be so dirty.

...Then again, the fact that I was able to immediately discern your intent probably speaks more ill of me than it does you.

Correct, I was referring to the lack of expansion of the upper levels in relation to the lower levels. Emily never seemed to mature proportionately. Really!!!

Quoting lottotexas:
and still no rain in Houston

No that shows it raining on the east side of Houston again. :P

Quoting twincomanche:
Just a little theory on a slow night. Instead of high temperatures causing more activity it might be inhibiting it. The moisture has a finite limit (100%) and the outbreak of weather is when moisture gets to 100% or thereabouts when it is hotter there is less outbreaks because there are less times when this critical condition is reached.

It's kind of a double-edged sword. On one hand, high temperatures are usually accompanied by strong subsidence, which promotes sinking air and inhibits convection. On the other hand, continuous cloudless heat significantly warms the ocean, thereby promoting instability whenever the dry air is eradicated.

Quoting angiest:

No that shows it raining on the east side of Houston again. :P

No rain in my part of Houston either :o(

32.6n63.0w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Gert's_12amGMT_ATCF
32.7n62.9w, 33.9n62.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting 15August_12amGMT and ending 16August_12amGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is its straightline projection.

TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 15.3mph(24.7k/h) on a heading of 25.9degrees(NNE)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over Melasveitarvegur,Iceland ~1week6hours from now

Copy&paste 29.6n63.2w-30.6n63.4w, 30.6n63.4w-31.5n63.3w, 31.5n63.3w-32.7n62.9w, 32.7n62.9w-33.9n62.2w, bda, rkv, 32.7n62.9w-64.41n22.04w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 15August_6pmGMT)

Quoting PcolaDan:


Correct, I was referring to the lack of expansion of the upper levels in relation to the lower levels. Emily never seemed to mature proportionately. Really!!!

*wink wink*

Quoting angiest:

No that shows it raining on the east side of Houston again. :P

way on the east side. none for u or me.

Quoting twincomanche:
Yes. and I have a e mail to prove it.

HA. I gotta see this......

Quoting lottotexas:
please put a leash on that dog; he's getting me dizzzzzy.

Blink fast enough, and he stands still. :)

The problem with humidity, heat and there effects on weather is probably not that simple and cut dry. In reality humidity above 70% will allow the atmosphere to become saturated enough to precipitate at which point humidity then becomes 100%. Strong dew point depressions lead to collapsing thunderstorms and steeping mid level lapse rates, however these lapse rates are known as dry adiabatic. As air rises it cools an when the air parcel is cooler then the surrounding environment it continues to rise, however as the parcel gains altitude the atmosphere cools as well and then there is no more difference between parcel and environment and the parcel becomes stabilized. If the parcel is warmer than the environment this is the dry adiabatic lapse rate at which case the parcel is falling, like rain, or like air on the leeward side of a mountain where the atmosphere appears to warm up compared to the windward side where the air rises.

All in all, I don't think heat is a cause, more so its the dry air causing the air to warm up and therefore that is the problem, dry air is the problem over hot air.

Quoting tropicfreak:


Some areas here in VA are abnormally dry, but we never got above a moderate drought here, but we got several storms, some of them were slow moving. Now the Richmond area is now near normal, about 2-3" below normal which isn't too bad.

We don't need another Isabel and Gaston(2004, caused flooding rains across the metro area, we got 10" in like 3 hours!)

Thats a lot of rain.I remember when Fay (TS) went across Florida so many times and then Mobile we got a good bit of rain from her.I cant remember how much it was.

Quoting PcolaDan:


Blink fast enough, and he stand still. :)

tried that and all I saw was visions of IKE in 2008

After getting off work and reading the blog written by Dr. Masters I have a problem with it. The problem is with the headline New York City sets all time 1 day rainfall record. This headline is completely untrue while JFK airport set a record with 7.80 inches NYC did not. Records at JFK go back to 1948 while records at Central Park the official location for NYC go back to 1869. The rainfall record is 8.28 inches set on Sept. 23 1882. I hope this was an honest mistake by Dr. Master and hope he will correct it.

Quoting presslord:


now....Dolly was stacked...pushed mounds of water....some boobs were partying on the shore as she came abreast...constituted real stupidity...she broke up over the hills...racked up some damage, though....

But mostly a bust.

Good thing we didnt have the internet and waterloop in the 70s all people would be talking about is how the colors keep poping.. wow dude did you see that one!!

Wasnt OZ in Dolly at the Hotel Wind Surfing with his Gear ?

Good Evening All,

Return from a short trip to the see the Grand Kids and get home to find the tropics fired up while I was off-netted.

Quoting mrsalagranny:
Thats a lot of rain.I remember when Fay (TS) went across Florida so many times and then Mobile we got a good bit of rain from her.I cant remember how much it was.

We got an inch here from the remnants of Fay. A few other notable storms that I can remember was Hanna and Ernesto, which caused flooding problems though not as bad as Gaston. Hanna came and gone quite quickly. I only remember bits and pieces of Floyd though.

Quoting nymore:
After getting off work and reading the blog written by Dr. Masters I have a problem with it. The problem is with the headline New York City sets all time 1 day rainfall record. This headline is completely untrue while JFK airport set a record with 7.80 inches NYC did not. Records at JFK go back to 1948 while records at Central Park the official location for NYC go back to 1869. The rainfall record is 8.28 inches set on Sept. 23 1882. I hope this was an honest mistake by Dr. Master and hope he will correct it.

Hope you don't lose sleep over this!

Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Looks like 93l going over part of heberts box /cough lol

Before you post things like this, please read up on the significance of Hebert's Box. It means nothing if a wave or invest passes through it. There is some disagreement as to what level the cyclose must be at when it passes through to "qualify". Some say it must be a major, some feel just a hurricane, and some feel it is just classified by definition as a "tropical cyclone".

"The Hebert Box was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert. This former NWS & NHC forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida Peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties."

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hope you don't lose sleep over this!

LOL!!!

Quoting PcolaDan:


Blink fast enough, and he stands still. :)

ok, how many people tried this ???

Quoting tropicfreak:


We got an inch here from the remnants of Fay. A few other notable storms that I can remember was Hanna and Ernesto, which caused flooding problems though not as bad as Gaston. Hanna came and gone quite quickly. I only remember bits and pieces of Floyd though.

I hope we are all spared this year from a major Hurricane.I know luck can only hold out for so ong and someone is gonna get hit.I pray whomever it is will be safe.

A look back at Hurricane Gustav's First feeder Band from the French Quarter.


Presslord,,the Church looks familiar ?

Quoting hunkerdown:
Before you post things like this, please read up on the significance of Hebert's Box. It means nothing if a wave or invest passes through it. There is some disagreement as to what level the cyclose must be at when it passes through to "qualify". Some say it must be a major, some feel just a hurricane, and some feel it is just classified by definition as a "tropical cyclone".

"The Hebert Box was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert. This former NWS & NHC forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida Peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties.

got it ive been reprimanded i take full responsiblility in the joke i was trying to make..ease up Francis

Quoting twincomanche:
Are you on some need to know list? Otherwise us old OSS people are sworn to secrecy. Next time Grothar is on ask him if he was involved with the OSS.

Need to know list? Where does that come from? BTW, me and Grothar talk often, so I know plenty, bub.

Quoting mrsalagranny:
I hope we are all spared this year from a major Hurricane.I know luck can only hold out for so ong and someone is gonna get hit.I pray whomever it is will be safe.

By far though the worst storm for me was Isabel, and I can tell that yours was Ivan.

Quoting Patrap:
Wasnt OZ in Dolly at the Hotel Wind Surfing with his Gear ?

Yes, he was. Dolly "looked" excellent and well formed as she passed over Grand Cayman. Enormous amount of rain and very gusty winds BUT no closed LLC until right after she passed and just before crossing into the GOM.

Gert ain't lookin well. Does he still have the CDO some one mentioned.

Quoting HurricaneNewb:
got it ive been reprimanded i take full responsiblility in the joke i was trying to make..ease up Francis

what was a joke to you could have been taken as fact to somebody who didn't know.

Quoting Patrap:
A look back at Hurricane Gustav's First feeder Band from the French Quarter.


Presslord,,the Church looks familiar ?

Very cool!!

Quoting twincomanche:
At what temperature is the second part initiated? I don't know these things just watching weather over land not water through the years.

I'm not sure that there is an exact temperature at which instability becomes maximized over the ocean. However, I will say that instability, even over land, is driven largely by temperature gradients. Thus, temperature differences drive convection, all parameters being equal.

Quoting presslord:


Very cool!!

And a very Empty NOLA fer sure.


She was in the Street for all that footage press.

Quoting tropicfreak:


By far though the worst storm for me was Isabel, and I can tell that yours was Ivan.

Ivan hit just to the East of us in Orange Beach Ala.I am in Mobile.They said it was gonna hit Mobile then right before coming ashore it made a mad dash to the EAST of us.I was terrified of Ivan.I lived through Fredrick in 1979.That was awful.

Quoting hunkerdown:
what was a joke to you could have been taken as fact to somebody who didn't know.

fact or none this site is not Gospel ,, always and i repeat always follow the NHC.. for anykind of info on storms forming and or in your area do not take any of this info on this site from bloggers for more than just blogs and guess/s as to were storms may go..

Quoting mrsalagranny:
Ivan hit just to the East of us in Orange Beach Ala.I am in Mobile.They said it was gonna hit Mobile then right before coming ashore it made a mad dash to the EAST of us.I was terrified of Ivan.I lived through Fredrick in 1979.That was awful.

I went through Katrina while living on the MS gulf coast... that was HELL ON EARTH!!!