Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Where do you see an eye?
yeap been saying that for the last hour but peeps say its dryair idk
Santurice gives the true location, watch the windshift from NNE to SE, meaning the storm is coming up from the SE and moving to its SW and W. It cannot possibly be over water. Also it is pretty calm and the pressure is 992 mb.
Actually, I wasn't saying that either, but thanks for sticking up for me :P I kind of explain myself in post 6623, but I should clarify further: I was not even talking about Irene. In context, I mentioned how Irene might be an example, but I was really just trying to understand how a circulation skirting a coastline might be affected by nearby mountainous terrain. Just a simple, hypothetical scenario that happened to be not so hypothetical, since it's pretty much happening right now!
you are being baited...don't take it
Its a very well organized storm with a tight low level core and an excellent environment to work with. If she stays away from major land interaction I can certainly see a period of rapid intensification at some point.
just north of pr in the water look
Link
dont believe in that silly downcasters
Just north of PR.
Sheesh, blog still faster than usual.
How could Irene be a lot more intense than Hugo? Hugo was a cat 4 from the Antilles to landfall in S. Carolina, briefly reaching cat 5 status out at sea.
I see a tiny gret dot in the middle of the clouds... not enough for me to say thats an eye. Sorry bro....
next stop,hopefully is dominican republic
I would say skirting would not have much of an effect. It may cause it to stop strenghtening, but I dont see how it would really hurt it too bad.
Perfect! Thank you This is why I am reporting. I am gonna take a bet and say its gonna escape through the Dorado/Manati/Vega Baja area in north PR. Right now still calm but widespread reports of "el virazon" (east side) are appearing all over social networks. Seems its very bad.
AT 400 AM AST...0800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
IRENE WAS ESTIMATED BY FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST...OR ABOUT
20 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
60 MILES EAST OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO.
6z Surface Winds Analysis.
Holding her own.
Yes I'd agree with that exit point, she is about 10 miles SE of there right now.
This means that her coc is tightening again and the convection in the northern semi circle is really intense.
laptop computer and broadband internet
Since it was at 18.3N 66.1W an hour ago, it has been moving due west for the past hour with no northerly component.
If it made landfall at the exact same strength as hugo did but 40 miles south of Charleston then it would be much worse.
Which also means she'll have plenty of moisture to try and wrap around her center when you moves out over the water.
In the end of this loop she looks more like a hurricane then ever.
The core and surface/mid level circulations have been affected by the land interaction, however, a strong surface circulation under the mid level circulation, still remains present according to radar observations. It will take a bit for Irene to reorganize herself over the next day after crossing PR, however, once again Irene remains to the north/right of her projected path. Here's an image of the 6z consensus models with Irene's current position shown by the thumbtack.
Should the forecasted shape of Irene's track not change (which it really hasn't over the past few days - it's only shifted east), then Irene should actually miss Hispaniola all together. It still may briefly skirt the northern part of the island tomorrow, however, that part of the island is not very mountainous and I don't expect Irene to be significantly disrupted by this. Once again, the upper level environment and ocean environment are prime for intensification, so if you live on the Bahamas, SE US, or mid-Atlantic states, start preparing now. For now, Hispaniola and PR will have to watch for torrential rains.
haha
2011AUG22 064500 3.8 989.9/ +0.1 / 61.0 3.8 4.1 5.7 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -12.06 -62.69 EYE 26 IR 18.55 66.30 COMBO
2011AUG22 071500 3.9 988.7/ +0.3 / 63.0 3.9 4.1 5.4 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -11.76 -60.28 EYE 29 IR 18.59 66.53 COMBO
Scene Type goes from UNIFRM to EYE...not sure what this means though. lol.
Watch the buoy just N of San Juan too, excellent observation point just E of the center. 991 mb pressure at the most recent report.
Nope. NHC reporting its moving west over the north side of PR. Maybe the north part of the COC is overwater (unlikely) but the system is still inland. Land reports from users also help sustain this.
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