Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Jim Cantore
Wedge in late August. Impressive RT @reedtimmerTVN: Photo of Goderich, Ontario #tornado yfrog.com/hszcnxvnj fb.me/12JARjgZJ
They wanted to see a couple cycles of models before moving the track substantially since until the 12z runs today most models had it going into the gulf.
FULL
It does appear as though it is slowing some and taking a more westerly course. do you observe this and what do you think of this? Is this accurate my observation?
that line doesn't extend much beyond 17...remember, though..
Good call, just remembering Hugo and yes I know this is not Hugo yet...
55kts found by recon would round to 65mph, which is still a tropical storm.
You're in for a rough night, I'm afraid. You should at least see gusts to hurricane force...hopefully not sustained hurricane force. Irene is going to be strengthening all the way up until it makes landfall on PR. If it doesn't make landfall and goes just south, that's probably the worst situation as it will continue to strengthen.
I'd be throwing them muffins out the window! :)
Overall motion still looks WNW to me.
probly levi with that rant of anemic ACE
They'd have to evacuate everything east of Charlotte.
Edit, But when you refresh radar, that hot tower in really a swirl, around the dry spot.
because a hurricane or storm isn't a skinny line or dot on the map and any slight deviation of the track could put the worst weather back over Florida.
Dude buckle up for this storm!
I know we'd be getting it relatively easy up here in NJ if the consensus track played out, but that would be a near parallel of Floyd for the Northeast which caused catastrophic flooding.
JFV, please go home
They specifically say that 5 days out the error can be off by 700-750 miles either way.
And it's not a "mistake" on their part. It's that things can and do change.
Some slowing is expected as the ridge breaks down to the northwest. Hurricanes don't just go racing around the edges of ridges, just as cars don't fly around turns as fast as straight lanes. The short-term forward speed would have to persist for several hours to be a significant slowing.
it's hungry
SFWMD still hasn't updated Irene yet, others have though, coming soon.
PR starts at 17.9N, landfall seems inevitable.
Irene's coming to pay a visit to Florida? I mean she in the Hebert Box,throw away the rest of the forecasting tools.
Confidently?
Does everyone know how most of Irene's TS winds were to the North of her? well think again, recon finding TS winds to the south of the Center now, and you know all the large amount of Convection expanded to the North and East? its dissipating into Outflow and New Convection firing near the core, Irene is getting her self together... my Last question is WHO THE HELL TICKED HER OFF?!?
yup....and remember" mandatory doesn't mean mandatory....you're welcome to stay put....
...the Gullah people here refer to "binyahs' (those who're from here...and 'comyahs'...(those who have come from off)...
binyahs leave...comyahs stay...
See, I told you that you needed to prepare for a tropical storm :P
bro, that's a little far out still honestly
I am estimating that the central pressure was already 992mb a couple of hours ago. Why?
The Salt River Bay station in the northern part of St. Croix just released its 6pm to 7pm data a few minutes ago. It was down but just came back online. see data here: Link
They recorded a wind shift at 6:24pm with calm winds, but pressure continued to drop to a low of 994.91mb (29.38in), at 6:48pm as the COC moved away and intensified.
So if the storm was moving at ~14mph and it moved for 24 minutes, then 994.91 was the pressure about 6 miles from the center...
So the center pressure at 6:48pm could be 2 or 3mb lower. I am basing that on the fact that the station 6 miles in the opposite direction, Christiansted Harbor, had a 3mb higher pressure at 6:48pm (998mb).
I think you should go ahead and bake those muffins, then ship them over here to Tampa for safekeeping. You're gonna be up watching the blog anyhow! :D
Edit: Didn't the models trending East also say that Irene would be a hurricane south of DR?
NHC won't flop around as quickly as the models do.
Yes, I recall that. Well played, sir!
It's the three-lettered person who loves to come back, JSYK.
They tend to avoid flinging their long-term track in the direction of a sudden model swing, in case the models just flip back the other way. They may also have a reason or two for staying west of the models. If the 0z models stay east of Florida, chances are their track will shift farther east, closer in line with them.
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