Irene continues to weaken
Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene continues to weaken. A 1:32 pm EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall is still gone, and the central pressure had risen to 951 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate southwesterly wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene have moved ashore over North Carolina. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 3 pm EDT, with significant wave heights of 25 feet.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Friday August 26, when Irene was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The eyewall collapsed several hours before this image was taken, and no eye is apparent. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.
Figure 2. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 3:30 pm EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.
Forecast for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday. Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 2) and Irene's continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75 - 85 mph on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55 - 75 mph winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur. By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65 - 75 mph range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.
Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene.
Figure 3. Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 20 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. The exceedance heights depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Figure 4. Overall chance that storm surges will be greater than 3 feet above normal tide levels during the next 3 days. The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.
Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will take your questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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brutal dry air intrusion
Wow, it looks like something ate half the storm. lol.
Ive never heard of a 952 millibar hurricane that is barely at category 2 strength. Even stranger is that there is no temperature difference, do think that suggests Irene essentially has no inner core left? The "eyewall" is only showing convection with echotops to 35000 ft, which is way too shallow for normal inner core convection of a hurricane at 952 millibars.
On radar Irene seems to be moving around 015 degrees, or just N of NNE, and has been doing that for about 90 minutes. If that continues up until landfall she will cross the coastline closer to Core Sound and Cedar Bar Island just a hair E of Cape Lookout, rather than Cape Hatteras or just over the edge of the farther Outer Banks islands.
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1 612707/pg45#26638220
Might do a livestream if conditions permit.
Ivan was.
Its more like a circular dry spot in the center of the storm. There hasn't been a proper eyewall for about 9-12 hours, just slightly stronger convection around 30-50 miles from the center from time to time.
Waves are battering the pier.
Whoa, I thought you were kidding. That is the actual URL. I watched Oz during I forget which storm last year, went just south of brownsville. Always entertaining!
Where is he now?
why would anyone read any of this jibberish?
Dolly
That would of been Hurricane Alex.
It went down in Fran in '96.
There is about 15-20 kts of southwesterly shear that is helping to pound her western side with dry air flowing off the southeast U.S. She hasn't really weakened all that much at all despite all of her inner structural changes and the less than ideal environment. Because she is so large and has so much energy spread out over a huge distance she is more capable of maintaining her strength for longer in worse conditions, or at least weakening at a slower pace than the average storm would.
Yeah definitely a strange hurricane, I'm drawn to it for its weirdness, just as much as I'm drawn to the awesome structure of well organized hurricanes, lol.
I gotta crash... Good luck to all.
Please don't get upset if Irene doesn't pound you as hard as we all expected!
It reminds me of my old joke about the Hurricane Floyd virus... It temporarily moves all of the data on 1/2 of the hard drive then destroys the data on the other half... The half that survives complains about the inconvenience!
Would have to agree with 75 here. Not extremely powerful. Hurricane force winds in a small quadrant NE of eye. It will be weak and moving thru quick thru NE.
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 76.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
WTNT34 KNHC 270658
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 76.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND
IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY ONE AND
CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IRENE
REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
290 MILES...465 KM. A NOAA C-MAN STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/H. A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN FORT
MACON NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH...120
KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS
MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
NEW YORK...AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN
TYRRELL COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BRENNAN
Do not let the current winds fool you. Firstly, those winds that are being found between 2,000 and 4,000 feet up (over 100 kts) will be more likely to mix down to the surface once the NE quadrant moves over land and encounters friction. Secondly, the amount of storm surge and rainfall does not go away even in a weakening storm, this is still a serious event for the eastern seaboard.
That's got to take a toll. Well, whatever it is, keep doing it.
Look at the view when it zooms on the very end of the pier. Isn't what appears to be broken pieces really just the shadow of the railing being thrown down onto the waves by the high lights above the pier?
I admit I got quite excited when I first saw what I thought was the pier breaking up JUST AS I CLICKED ON THE SITE (esp since I've been web surfing for hours) but I think it is just the shadows....
41036
And I think it's now west of the center... East side of Irene may still be no slouch.
OK, I'm not sleeping yet either... Just gotta see it come on shore...
I remember watching Katrina come on shore until the Slidell radar blew away as the eye wall hit it...
The last picture recorded was of Katrina's eyewall. I obviously don't expect that this time.
HAARP? LOL
Plus, I think I've heard that storm surge isn't as dangerous when a storm is perpendicular to the shore. I'll be interested to see how much the water comes up there... it already appears to be splashing over the end of the pier!
The camera panned out into the waves and followed a bit of debris in addition to what you're describing. In addition to the pier bits, there seemed to be the hull of a white fiberglass boat. I thought it was part of a surfboard at first, then remembered the scale.
Viewing: 2051 - 2101
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