Irene sends 4.5 foot storm surge up Chesapeake Bay
The eye of Hurricane Irene is back over water, after the hurricane completed a 11-hour crossing of eastern North Carolina. Irene came ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 am EDT this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting to 115 mph at 7:19am, as measured by a Department of Transportation official. I suspect this measurement came when a thunderstorm near Irene's center collapsed, sending a powerful downburst to the surface. A trained spotter on Atlantic Beach, NC measured sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured 80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall. However, no regular weather station or buoy has measured sustained hurricane force winds in Irene, with the highest winds being 67 mph at the Cape Lookout, North Carolina buoy as Irene made landfall. Winds have peaked along the coast of Virginia, where sustained winds of 61 mph were observed at 6 pm EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Irene's passage over land weakened the storm slightly, and satellite loops show more dry air has wrapped into the storm. The radar presentation of Irene visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is still very impressive--Irene is dropping torrential rains over a huge area--but there is much less rain over the storm's southeastern quadrant, over water. Radar-estimated rainfall shows a 50 mile-wide band of 8+ inches of rain has fallen from where Irene made landfall at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, northwards to Dover, Delaware. Some isolated amounts of 15+ inches may have fallen, according to the radar estimates. Bunyan, NC has received 14.00" so far, and the towns of Washington, New Bern, Grifton, Newport-Croatan, Wonona, NC, all received more than ten inches. Norfolk, Virginia had received 7.73" as of 7pm EDT, and Suffolk, Virginia, 8.00".
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Irene over North Carolina taken at 11:35 am EDT August 27, 2011. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Storm surge damage from Irene
The storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the storm's greatest damage. High tide is near 7 - 8 pm EDT tonight, meaning that the storm surges occurring now will be some of Irene's most damaging. The highest surges measured at any of NOAA's regular tide gauges at 8 pm were 4.5 feet at Sewells Point in Norfolk Virginia and Oregon Inlet, NC. Higher surges are occurring father inland where narrow inlets funnel the storm surge to higher elevations. It remains unclear if the ocean will overtop Manhattan's sea wall at The Battery Sunday morning during the 8 am high tide. Latest storm surge forecasts from SUNY Stony Brook predict a peak water level of 2.4 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 7:15 am Sunday, which would put the ocean right at the top of the sea wall. Presumably, waves from the hurricane's winds would then push some water over the top of the wall, but it is uncertain whether or not this would cause significant flooding. The storm surge was already 1 foot at 8 pm tonight. Storm surge flooding continues to be a major concern all along the coast of Long Island Sound; I recommend the SUNY Stony Brook storm surge page for those interested in looking at observed and predicted storm surge levels along coast New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.
Figure 2. Storm surge at Sewell's Point in Norfolk, Virginia as of 8 pm EDT Saturday August 27, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 8 pm, the storm surge was 4.5 feet. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Figure 3. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 6:30 pm EDT Saturday August 27, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had all of the storm's shrinking hurricane-force winds (yellow and orange colors.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene over water, but very few areas of land were receiving tropical storm force winds. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.
Wind damage
The emergence of Irene's eye over water will slow the storm's rate of weakening, but the storm is under too much wind shear to allow it to intensify. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, and also the large majority of the tropical storm-force winds. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph. Coastal areas of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and the New York CIty area will mostly see top winds in the 40 - 55 mph range, since they will be on the weaker left side of the storm. Winds on the upper floors of skyscrapers will be up to 30% higher, but I expect there will be only isolated problems with New York City skyscrapers suffering blown out windows. The winds from Irene in New York City will be no worse than those experienced during some of the city's major Nor'easter winter storms of the past twenty years.
Tornadoes
Four tornadoes have been spawned by Irene, two in coastal North Carolina last night, and two in coastal Virginia today. At least two homes have been destroyed, and ten others damaged by the tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for all of coastal Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.
Links
Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Well, we all start somewhere...I just don't have time for anyone being unpleasant but me...LOL
How you been Brock?
I know this is from a while back, but if you're thankful, then why do you continue to complain they misled you? The NHC forecasted the worst case scenario and luckily for many it didn't pan out. Did you want the entire NY subway system to flood and be out for weeks? Did you want 100's of lives to be lost, DID YOU WANT THE STORM TO LIVE UP TO THE HYPE and cause massive damage/loss of life? Be thankful you don't have to pick up the pieces of your livelihood or that you're even alive as many thousands have had to do with past Hurricanes.
Levi and other expert bloggers have mentioned that flight level winds could've mixed down to the surface from the land friction and that's why the NHC wanted to play it safe. Oh and for the record there was a gust to 115 mph sustained at 94 mph in North Carolina from a reliable source, so yes it was a Hurricane when it hit NC.
This blog is ridiculous at times and it's not just you this is aimed at all the "it wasn't so bad" people who would inevitable be complaining if the forecast did turn out and the NHC forecasted a Tropical Storm. NHC can never do any good with anyone it seems *shrug*
not sure
We're 1 name behind, Lee was named on the 31st.
That's incredible, I didn't think it would happen again to have activity (*note, named storm only) on pair with 2005 again.
The flooding became bigger news over the next few days.
People really need to give the water some time to drain out of the Catskills before calling this a bust...
ECMWF @ 240h shows hurricane between Bermuda and Florida headed NW.
All I am saying is, tell me the truth. The storm was nowhere near 65 or 75mph sustained coming into NYC. Forecast what you want, just give me real current conditions. It's not too much to ask!
they may be quoting different things. maybe 200-400 million stands for claims already called in. maybe 10 billion includes state owned assets or the cost of replenishing the beachheads after erosion and/or shifting.
like govt. the devil is in the details.
i would wait for AIR International to make a statement if your looking for estimated damages overall.
Quoting Dr Masters:
"The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, and also the large majority of the tropical storm-force winds. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph"
Possibly true. But for every privatization success story, there are a dozen nightmarish cautionary tales. I've said it before, and will say it again: some things are far too important to far too many people to entrust to for-profit entities. Period.
They get a bad one about every 15 years or so; a devestating storm, like the LIE in 1938 comes along about every 70, thohg there was one long forgotten that wiped out Hog Island in 1893 (?) which makes the interval there about 45 years.
They named them because they threatened land or looked too impressive to ignore. 96L didn't look THAT good, compared to Cindy.
I've seen a lot of pics from towns like this in NJ:
Yep, the pressure was quite low, but it was also quite large, thereby making it a taller task to ramp up the winds. I know Westchester is a mess with lots of flooding. I am not underestimating the destructive force of a massive tropical storm. But, I think we can all agree that the NHC was reporting current conditions inaccurately.
prison management is a great example of this...but I believe there are some areas where privatization could work...meteorology may very well be one of those...I'm not sure I can envision how the profit motive would be served by the dissemination of inaccurate weather information...
and, btw, for those of you watching...THIS is how civil people can disagree without resorting to ugliness...
TV coverage is showing quite a few people wading through water. Around here we would need to be wary of snakes, clumps of ants etc. Do you have similar hazards?
It looks like Irene is baby sitting her baby brother... cute. (100% ignoring the fact that her outflow is suffocating him...)
2011 is now up to 10 named storms for the season. 2005 had 11 named storms by now, and in fact, "Lee" formed today.
Don't forget the monster that was in the Gulf 6 years ago today.
^ 6 years ago today.
and ringworms..
So the NHC controls local forecasts? Don't think so. We can agree to disagree on whether or not you criticized Dr. Masters. You were calling him out for downplaying Irene. You did this numerous times, despite solid data backing him up. He also consistently played up the flooding threat. This was forecast to be the biggest threat for the northeast, and has proven to be accurate.
LOL...Conch, you looking to see what you're going to be missing?
Causing trouble in here again?
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