Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Levi32:


True, it does look like the GFS shows the upper low being left behind to an extent, albeit a lot farther east than the Euro.

Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


Levi, the ridge you talked about that Lee would create from his outflow. If that ridge were to be in place south of Florida(some modes show this). How long would that ridge stay for? Thank you for your time.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Ticking time bomb in TX as winds are gonna get stronger with Lee to our east and cool front coming in, everything dead, and ready to burn, gonna get ugly real fast in TX

Quoting Levi32:
Yup. The 12z Euro does have something in the long-range in the Caribbean, like the GFS. I dealt with that idea in my blog this morning. There's actually some interesting things going on that support the idea of a storm in the Caribbean near or after the 15th of September.

Quoting washingaway:
For those who may not have seen this;
I've only seen a storm do that a couple of times, but not such a BIG loop! Kind of scary to watch.

Quoting Altestic2012:

Are you crazy? None of the models expect any significant rain in TX through September.

Quoting Altestic2012:
So in other words Levi, no Katrina/Rita tracks this year.

Quoting WetBankGuy:
Lee still interesting for LA. Stalled at 1 PM CDT, with that massive feeder band that stretches south of the lattitude of Brownsville. Here in NOLA hoping it jobs east a bit (sorry Mississippi). Looks to be simultaneously entraining dry air from the west but also popping up convection just SW of the center as if trying to close off.

What do you think, Pat?

Quoting Patrap:

Quoting washingtonian115:
Not to mention Florida can still get hit in October.Especially wit the Trofs becoming more common(Wilma)

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Statements like these just deserve a massive facepalm.

Florida isn't safe at all. Do you need a geography lesson? Florida sticks out like a sore thumb away from the USA.

Its TIMING that matters. If you get a storm into the Caribbean with the conditions that are in place, a strong one at that too, like a Category 2, it will be picked up and head into the Gulf. That's just the facts.

Quoting jpsb:
You post the most interesting graphics, i only wish I knew what they meant.

Quoting HurricaneVSafety:


CybrTeddy,

On average Florida gets hit by a Hurricane every 4 years and a Tropical storm every 2 years.

If you go by statistical averages.. then yes Florida is the Hurricane Capital of the US.
however, this year there is nothing to suggest that Florida will ever be affected... This year
The majority of the storms have been to the east and pulled northward away from you folks down there.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's a big no-no...

Quoting HurricaneVSafety:


CybrTeddy,

On average Florida gets hit by a Hurricane every 4 years and a Tropical storm every 2 years.

If you go by statistical averages.. then yes Florida is the Hurricane Capital of the US.
however, this year there is nothing to suggest that Florida will ever be affected... This year
The majority of the storms have been to the east and pulled northward away from you folks down there.

Quoting Levi32:


Well that specific piece of the ridge will probably stick around until Lee and his associated upper trough leave the area. Even after that though we might see the Atlantic ridge build westward in the wake of Katia and extend into the Florida area, so it may look like ridging never left.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Lets not forget the 1921 Hurricane, just for Tampa residents that have become complacent over the years.

Quoting Altestic2012:

Interesting, but didn't Katrina began as a long-tracking TW/TD that probably would have been a fish storm if it had developed earlier (like Irene), and Rita developed at around 65W just NNE of Puerto Rico. Not exactly in our back yard...(i.e., the Bahamas). Both of them had time to develop into minimal hurricanes before hitting Florida, and then on in to the Gulf as Cat 5's.

Quoting Altestic2012:

Interesting, but didn't Katrina begin as a long-tracking TW/TD that probably would have been a fish storm if it had developed earlier (like Irene), and Rita developed at around 65W just NNE of Puerto Rico. Not exactly in our back yard...(i.e., the Bahamas). Both of them had time to develop into minimal hurricanes before hitting Florida, and then on in to the Gulf as Cat 5's.

Quoting TxGrandma:
Is that the island that was created with dredgings from the channel into Bayport? (I've heard it called Fisherman's Island, but not sure....)

Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


And that ridge would stay until the next trough came down? As long as it was deep enough to force it out of the way that is...

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yes, but a good analog to this year is 1999, and Irene came from the Caribbean and hit southwest FL. that year.

Quoting baytwntx11:
YIPPEE!!!! Raining here now..... Just east of Baytown, TX.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Statistics are moot.

Majority of storms go out to sea that are hurricanes.

Its not Florida, its every state.

NYC got hit, that's rare. That's something that is a once-in-a-20 year event.

But to say something like 'Florida is the safest state' is ridiculous.

Quoting Altestic2012:

That's my point lol, neither Katrina nor Rita formed in the US back yard (i.e. the Bahamas). They formed well east of there. I can't believe y'all would misinterpret my statement like that.