Tropical Storm Lee lingers off Louisiana coast
Tropical Storm Lee continues to bring heavy rain, moderately strong wind gusts, and tornado risk to the Gulf Coast states east of Texas. Lee is 55 miles south of Lafayette, Louisiana, and is drifting almost due north at 4 mph. Lee's central pressure dropped to 988 mb since this morning, but has maximum sustained wind speeds that have decreased to 50mph. The National Hurricane Center has extended the tropical storm warning eastward to Destin, Florida. Since this morning, New Orleans Lakefront Airport has received about another inch of rain for a storm total of 6.87 inches. Rainfall estimates from radar suggest some locations, especially close to the coast, might have already seen up to 8 inches of rain from Tropical Storm Lee. Although the New Orleans area is in a dry slot of the storm, more rain can be expected through the night in the form of isolated storms with heavy downpours. Louisiana's Jefferson Parish officials ordered a mandatory evacuation for three towns earlier today: Lafitte, Crown Point, and Barataria. Heavy rain and tidal surge pushed the water of Bayou Barataria into the surrounding low-lying areas, and officials warned that if residents didn't leave, they might become stranded for a couple of days.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite of Tropical Storm Lee captured around 6pm EDT. Source: NOAA.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Lee
Lee's forecast hasn't changed much since this morning. Dry air is being pulled in from the west, which is giving the storm a very subtropical appearance, and is mitigating intensification. Earlier today, two centers of circulation were visible in satellite and confirmed by Hurricane Hunters. The centers were rotating around each other in full Fujiwara fashion, and although they were scientifically interesting, it meant that there was no clear center of circulation, and probably helped to weaken storm. The National Hurricane Center expects that Lee will come ashore in Louisiana later this evening and linger over the region until Monday, when it will finally be pushed north by a mid-latitude wave.
Lee's tornado threat
A tornado watch is in effect for southern Louisiana and portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle until 10pm CDT. The forecast is for small and short-lived tornadoes, but the threat for tornado damage is still there. A PhD student at Georgia Tech (and my former group member), James Belanger, runs a skillful model to predict the number of tornadoes that a tropical cyclone could produce. The model uses variables such as the size of the storm, the maximum wind speed, and moisture. For the 2008 hurricane season, the model accurately predicted the number of tornadoes that would be spawned from a quite a few tropical cyclones, including Hurricane Dolly, Tropical Storm Edouard, Tropical Storm Fay, and Hurricane Ike. Given today's forecast track and intensity, Belanger's model is forecasting 30-40 tornadoes could be spawned from Tropical Storm Lee, mainly in the Southeast states east of and including Louisiana.
Interestingly, although the nose of dry air that's being pulled in from drought-stricken Texas (visible in the satellite image above) is acting to keep the storm weak, it's also playing a role in the number of tornadoes that could be spawned from Lee. The dry air is a crucial component for the storm to develop discrete, isolated thunderstorm cells (versus a large shield of heavy rain). The discrete cells, just like during severe weather season, are the storms that are most capable of producing a tornado.
Angela
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I dont understand why more people arent focusing on lee still, just because it isn't a strong storm. He still looks like a pretty serious problem for the south. I dont really agree with their classification of lee though, there is a temperature and moisture gradient associated with the storm. Pretty much instantly removes the purely tropical nature of the storm, and also removes the fact that it needs central convection to maintain 1000 mb intensity. But that poses more serious problems because the huge dry slot on visible imagery. This is still a strong enough storm to spawn lots of severe weather. The dry slot is allowing for sustained surface based heating, the main missing ingredient for tornadoes in most tropical natured cyclones. People along the immediate southern coastline really need to pay attention to the line of storms heading their way, and be prepared for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/ba ckground_information.shtml
I was in Richmond for Isabel and did not have power for 10 days, even though it was a mid-range tropical storm by the time it came up here. Lost water for a couple of days too. Remember watching a Shoney's burn to the ground because the only thing the fire department could do was send pumper trucks.
Part of the downed-tree problem here in the Northeast is that we just don't get strong tropical-storm winds very often. Big old brittle trees with rot and/or shallow roots can hang on year after year after year, because they don't often experience the kind of wind that can topple them and get rid of them.
If you're in an area where you see 100mph winds more often, those big old shallow-rooted trees may exist--but most of them are probably long gone. Palms can endure high winds a lot better than an ancient shallow-rooted deciduous tree in soaked soil! Our trees just aren't made for that kind of wind, though, and that was one of the major forces that compounded the issue.
It is my hope that Irene "weeded out" many of the rotted/fragile trees up here. I saw downed trees in my apartment complex that smashed mailboxes and came perilously close to falling on cars. The roots of those big old rotted trees were barely there--shallow and weak, with no way to hold on to the soaked soil. Good riddance to those old trees. I hope we don't see much more of that.
No question about it.
Maybe!!!!
the mb has drop from 987mb too 968mb
Went to bed with a TS, and wake up with a rapidly intensifying Category 2?!
Anyone ever wonder where here is? It appears very often in this blog. Let me look it up in my zipcode directory.
No, you are. While the NHC updates at 11, the ATCF feed that the NHC runs into the models for data has it as a 100 mph Category 2 hurricane.
How will this change her path?
Wouldn't that possibly be a good thing though? Wouldn't she tend to go more poleward if she is stronger?
Link
,cant get the link to work,just google flying thru eyewall ,anyone tell me how to post a youtube vid,i cannt even get t to link
"Over" being the problem. That WV image is deceiving. Surface layers are still very dry air from the N, and won't change until a S/SE flow redevelops (late next week, maybe).
sorry too keep posting this but
AL, 12, 2011090412, , BEST, 0, 216N, 588W, 85, 968, HU,
the mb has drop from 987mb too 968mb
this was not forcast too be come a 85kt storm in tell 72hrs
72H 07/0600Z 27.7N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
it did it in lees hafe that
I don't know...This was Paula from last year at 100 MPH:
Not much difference, IMO.
like it or not it is what it is
Will tend to go more to the North, and it seems that the NHC has a good trajectory on it, so other than keeping a good eye on it over the east coast I would not be too concerned about it.
Off hand.. I would say yes.
BUT...
As has happened before... and I am no forecaster.. nor do I pretend to be...
In a RI cane... they have a tendency of getting to big and making their own tracks and ignoring Highs/Lows.
I am sure there is some fancy scientific wording for it... but we have seen it happen.
the majority of our rain is due in this afternoon/evening and tomorrow..it will make the 5-6" we have received so far look puny - lol.
maybe called pumping the ridge lol?
Don't worry, we are. The feeder band rolling over the panhandle then wrapping around the storm and coming back over New Orleans show lots of moisture on the satellite, and lots of storms popping up just SE of NOLA. And we're under a tornado watch all day.
But I'm starting to pay attention to Katia again because I have to fly to VA next week.
Link
Old Salt
CONGRATS!
I hate that expression as much as "fish storm"
there is no valid definition of that term.. and its normally used by children looking for a laugh.
thats not aimed at you... its for others who use it
I am a block from the beach here in Destin. These big black clouds are so fast moving,I am sure there have been several spouts over the past few days. Thundering and pouring out now. Thought about grabbing the camera, then thought again....
Should start clearing out an eye soon.
+1
I just got caught in the band that is moving into MS from LA. Had some heavy downdraft gusts (approx. 40-50 kts.) when it came in with heavy rain, so Lee still can pack a punch. The stuff is moving pretty quickly.
Not a good day for boating or YOLOing!
I'd say about 5" rain here don't want to vent tire out to look at gauge.
BTW - I have a weather station, still in box--hubby wants a wireless one.
and ktia is looking goood this am does the nam still say west for her tia
ss - stay safe over there!..I been watching the "blob" hanging your way with the t/s and lots of rain..
On two occasions, last year and this year. However, given the buoy data, they will likely make it a Category 2. If not, a strong Cat. 1.
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