Tropical Storm Lee lingers off Louisiana coast
Tropical Storm Lee continues to bring heavy rain, moderately strong wind gusts, and tornado risk to the Gulf Coast states east of Texas. Lee is 55 miles south of Lafayette, Louisiana, and is drifting almost due north at 4 mph. Lee's central pressure dropped to 988 mb since this morning, but has maximum sustained wind speeds that have decreased to 50mph. The National Hurricane Center has extended the tropical storm warning eastward to Destin, Florida. Since this morning, New Orleans Lakefront Airport has received about another inch of rain for a storm total of 6.87 inches. Rainfall estimates from radar suggest some locations, especially close to the coast, might have already seen up to 8 inches of rain from Tropical Storm Lee. Although the New Orleans area is in a dry slot of the storm, more rain can be expected through the night in the form of isolated storms with heavy downpours. Louisiana's Jefferson Parish officials ordered a mandatory evacuation for three towns earlier today: Lafitte, Crown Point, and Barataria. Heavy rain and tidal surge pushed the water of Bayou Barataria into the surrounding low-lying areas, and officials warned that if residents didn't leave, they might become stranded for a couple of days.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite of Tropical Storm Lee captured around 6pm EDT. Source: NOAA.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Lee
Lee's forecast hasn't changed much since this morning. Dry air is being pulled in from the west, which is giving the storm a very subtropical appearance, and is mitigating intensification. Earlier today, two centers of circulation were visible in satellite and confirmed by Hurricane Hunters. The centers were rotating around each other in full Fujiwara fashion, and although they were scientifically interesting, it meant that there was no clear center of circulation, and probably helped to weaken storm. The National Hurricane Center expects that Lee will come ashore in Louisiana later this evening and linger over the region until Monday, when it will finally be pushed north by a mid-latitude wave.
Lee's tornado threat
A tornado watch is in effect for southern Louisiana and portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle until 10pm CDT. The forecast is for small and short-lived tornadoes, but the threat for tornado damage is still there. A PhD student at Georgia Tech (and my former group member), James Belanger, runs a skillful model to predict the number of tornadoes that a tropical cyclone could produce. The model uses variables such as the size of the storm, the maximum wind speed, and moisture. For the 2008 hurricane season, the model accurately predicted the number of tornadoes that would be spawned from a quite a few tropical cyclones, including Hurricane Dolly, Tropical Storm Edouard, Tropical Storm Fay, and Hurricane Ike. Given today's forecast track and intensity, Belanger's model is forecasting 30-40 tornadoes could be spawned from Tropical Storm Lee, mainly in the Southeast states east of and including Louisiana.
Interestingly, although the nose of dry air that's being pulled in from drought-stricken Texas (visible in the satellite image above) is acting to keep the storm weak, it's also playing a role in the number of tornadoes that could be spawned from Lee. The dry air is a crucial component for the storm to develop discrete, isolated thunderstorm cells (versus a large shield of heavy rain). The discrete cells, just like during severe weather season, are the storms that are most capable of producing a tornado.
Angela
Reader Comments
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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LEE HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. AN OIL PLATFORM LOCATED
ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF MARSH ISLAND HAS BEEN REPORTING A PRESSURE
OF AROUND 988 MB MOST OF THE EVENING. THE WINDS AT THAT SITE WERE
VARIABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RECENTLY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-20 KT INDICATING THAT THE CENTER OF LEE REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS ARE 40-44 KT AT SEVERAL ELEVATED RIGS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. LEE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER
WATER...LEE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 24 TO
36 HOURS.
LEE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD TURN LEE EASTWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST LEE WILL BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS...A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE
IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO NOW INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IN 4-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE
CENTER IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 29.4N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 30.0N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 30.4N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 30.7N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 32.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Eastward and then Northeastward?? It is moving WSW if I am not mistaken....what gives?
The most important part of the latest public advisory I think is this sentence:
"LEE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY."
Sorry, can't resist: Heck of a job, Brownie.
GFDL is very interesting
no commts
Hmmmm
ROFLMAOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011
.UPDATE...
STRONG SUSTAINED COASTAL WINDS OF BETWEEN 20 TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL
HAVE AN ONGOING WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM LEE HAS UNDERGONE LITTLE CHANGE THIS EVENING ...POSSIBLE SLIGHT
WEAKENING AND A MINOR SOUTHWESTERLY JOG OFF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COASTLINE. REGION FALLING UNDER THE FAR PERIPHERY OF LEE`S LATEST
WEST-OF-CENTER CONVECTIVE BURST. EXPECTING JUST PRIMARILY EASTERN
CWA LOW QPF -SHRA THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL HOURS...WITH THE BETTER-
BEHAVED ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS WOBBLING HIGHER FUTURE VORTICITY
OFFSHORE...OR ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND LEE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TIGHT BACKSIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE REFORTIFIED BY
A PASSING CF BOUNDARY LATER SUNDAY. AS NEAR-50 KNOT WINDS AT
AROUND 4-6 K FT MIX DOWN AS SURFACE WARMS...IT APPEARS THAT A
REPEAT WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TO ACCOMPANY SUNDAY`S RED FLAG
WARNING.
Yes... Labor Day. I've had zero confidence in our local forecasts (where the hell do they come from, anyway?!) So it's been WU 18/7 for the 4 days, up from say 5/7.
this go too the nhc web site
C'mon man...!
LMAO
it sould be a hurricane at any time now
it would all so be nic too get a recon in there
mhm...sure.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
...LEE STILL MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2011
...KATIA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES WELL
NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 57.4W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
Let me know if you need their discussions.
Definitely a change from this morning.
I do
img src="
Hey, twin. See you got the humor. :)
Yes it is, Last I saw 9.59 inches at the airport. I have not checked the roads to my house in a while to see if the water is down.
TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LEE HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. AN OIL PLATFORM LOCATED
ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF MARSH ISLAND HAS BEEN REPORTING A PRESSURE
OF AROUND 988 MB MOST OF THE EVENING. THE WINDS AT THAT SITE WERE
VARIABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RECENTLY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-20 KT INDICATING THAT THE CENTER OF LEE REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS ARE 40-44 KT AT SEVERAL ELEVATED RIGS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. LEE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER
WATER...LEE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 24 TO
36 HOURS.
LEE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD TURN LEE EASTWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST LEE WILL BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS...A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE
IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO NOW INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IN 4-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE
CENTER IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 29.4N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 30.0N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 30.4N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 30.7N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 32.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
-----------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2011
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN WITH THE FORMATION OF A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A BETTER DEFINED OUTFLOW IN CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES. I HAVE BEEN
LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES OVER KATIA TONIGHT.
THESE DATA SHOW A MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED INNER CORE STRUCTURE THAN
IN EARLIER PASSES...BUT THE CIRCULAR RING OF CONVECTION
REPRESENTING THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THE CYCLONE MIGHT NOT BE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT SEEMS IN
CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. HAVING SAID THAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN KEPT AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK
T-NUMBERS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...KATIA COULD REACH
HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN AT ANY TIME...AND SINCE THE SHEAR SHOULD
BEGIN TO RELAX IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS
MODEL...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
SINCE THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...THERE IS NOT
TOO MUCH TO ADD TO THE DISCUSSION. KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
OR WESTWARD DEPENDING ON HOW EACH MODEL REPRESENTS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN EACH RUN. IT INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT TONIGHT...THE GFS DEFINES THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF THE WESTERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO EXTREME SOLUTIONS. IN
GENERAL...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TO KEEP KATIA ON A TRACK BETWEEN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AND THEN TURN
THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER.
NOAA BUOY 41044...LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN 100 N MI TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KATIA RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KNOTS AND 18-FOOT
WAVES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 20.3N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 21.0N 58.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 22.3N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 23.5N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 24.5N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 27.0N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 29.1N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 32.0N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
Let me know if you need the tropical storm force winds graphics.
Updated: 9 min 13 sec ago
77 °F
Light Rain
Wind: 26 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 40 mph
Pressure: 29.75 in (Rising)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: .90 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3700 ft
Overcast 10000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft
If I could find the coffee table that would be fine. Good to see someone is keep the blog active on a Saturday night.
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
forecast position for Thur night at 30.5 N and 72.0 west, cat 3 . JMA has 892 mb hurricane Fri am 28 n 75 w
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LEE HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. AN OIL PLATFORM LOCATED
ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF MARSH ISLAND HAS BEEN REPORTING A PRESSURE
OF AROUND 988 MB MOST OF THE EVENING. THE WINDS AT THAT SITE WERE
VARIABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RECENTLY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-20 KT INDICATING THAT THE CENTER OF LEE REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS ARE 40-44 KT AT SEVERAL ELEVATED RIGS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. LEE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER
WATER...LEE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 24 TO
36 HOURS.
LEE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD TURN LEE EASTWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST LEE WILL BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS...A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE
IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO NOW INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IN 4-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE
CENTER IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 29.4N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 30.0N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 30.4N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 30.7N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 32.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Ask and ye shall receive
Good evening everybody.
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