Lee drenching the Gulf Coast; Katia a Cat 2
Tropical Storm Lee made landfall on the southern coast of Louisiana near 4 am CDT this morning, and continues to inch slowly northward and dump very heavy rains. The storm is not a threat to intensify, since its center lies over land, but enough of the storm's circulation is over water that Lee will be slow to weaken. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 8.85" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 9 am CDT this morning. Top winds this morning hit 46 mph, gusting to 57 mph, at 6:28 am CDT, when a heavy squall blew in. Latest satellite loops show Lee has lost quite a bit of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, but the storm remains a formidable rain-maker. Lee brought a storm surge of 4 feet to New Canal Station in Lake Pontchartrain and at Shell Beach east of New Orleans yesterday afternoon. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reported eight probable tornadoes from Lee yesterday. These tornadoes damaged approximately ten buildings, but caused no deaths or injuries.
Figure 1. Observed rainfall for the seven-day period ending at 8 am EDT Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Tropical Storm Lee had dumped 5 -10 inches of rain over a large swath of the coast, with a few areas in excess of ten inches (pink colors). Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period 8am EDT Sunday - 8 am EDT Friday, Sep 9, 2011. Lee is expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Forecast for Lee
Lee's large size and slow movement will make heavy rains the main concern today. Later in the week, the remnants of Lee's may be a problem for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain. Tornadoes from Lee are a potential hazard today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 9 am CDT.
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia finally overcame the wind shear and dry air interfering with it, and intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this morning. Latest satellite loops show a well-defined eye for the first time, but the hurricane still has a lopsided appearance, due to he impacts of dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots on its southwest side.
Katia will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days, but may be a threat to the U.S. late this week. The computer models disagree considerably on the position and strength of a trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. late this week, and thus how Katia will be steered. The evolution of this trough will be strongly affected by Tropical Storm Lee, and the models are not very skillful at predicting transitions from tropical storm to extratropical storm, which will happen to Lee by Wednesday this week. We have two of our reliable models--the ECMWF and UKMET--predicting that the trough will form farther west, steering Katia very close to North Carolina late this week. The rest of the models predict a more easterly position of the trough, which would force Katia to turn northwards towards Canada well before reaching North Carolina. Either scenario is possible, and it will probably be at least another day before the models converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. It's likely that locations on the U.S. coast south of North Carolina will not receive a direct hit from Katia, but the entire coast from North Carolina northwards to New England and Canada's Maritime Provinces is definitely at risk. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas tonight, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.
Elsewhere in the tropics
This week and next week typically mark the two most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, and there are two potential threat areas we need to watch. The GFS model predicts that a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Friday or Saturday this week. Several other models give support to this idea, and predict such a storm would track northwards or north-northeastwards towards the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The other region to watch is between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting that a tropical wave currently near the coast of Africa could develop into a tropical depression late this week, and arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by Saturday or Sunday.
Jeff Masters
This is what happens when you do not tie up your boat....
This was taken in Pass Christian MS
Reader Comments
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Most homes start to have major issues at 90-100 mph or so. Windows blow in, roofs begin to lift off, garage doors blow in, etc.
The same as we will get past 19 named storms this season.
Really what it is, timing with forecasts is hard, the heavy rains off the gulf will arrive in time over the next couple days, its just that the timing is off.
Honestly, forecasting weather in Florida is hard, it must be stressful to forecast weather professionally here sometimes! lol
I was blessed to have one of those homes during Katrina.. We boarded all the doors and windows and after several hours of Cat5-4 winds, we did not lose 1 shingle! It was amazing! all of our neighbors had major to minor damage, and we had not one shingle blown off.
Charley?
Worse than implied. Electricity generating plants use LOTS of water: often as much as (and sometimes more than) the total non-agricultural use of water in the area they serve.
No water, no in-state electricity generation. And the Governor and Legislature (ie the Texas power industry lobby) have fiercely opposed connection to the NationalElectricityGrid*, ostensibly because "we hate federal regulations"...
...which means no electricity, except from relatively small (and very expensive to operate) diesel and natural gas powered load-balancing and emergency generators.
Oh what fun to hafta run out to the nearest HomeDepot to buy your own, then to hafta shell out the big bucks to keep 'em fueled. Nothin' like the smell of diesel and gasoline wafting in from the neighborhood as a morning wake-me-up.
* And caused T.BoonePickens to shut down his planned wind-energy farms -- warehousing his turbines -- to concentrate instead on obtaining a near-monopoly on northTexas's OgalallaAquifer water.
So you really can't say VERY FEW.
2011SEP04 181500 5.1 968.4 92.4 5.1 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -47.96 -68.43 EYE -99 IR 54.2 22.30 59.63 SPRL GOES13 31.3
2011SEP04 184500 5.1 968.4 92.4 5.1 5.2 5.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -55.46 -68.57 EMBC N/A 54.2 22.46 59.71 SPRL GOES13 31.4
2011SEP04 191500 5.1 968.4 92.4 5.1 4.7 4.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -51.86 -68.15 UNIFRM N/A 54.2 22.37 59.84 FCST GOES13 31.3
The final T-number remains at T5.1.
I was living in the far south west MS and we were on the direct "dirty side" we had wind gust of 145 mph in my area then.
I do not understand how a Cat 4 hurricane would prevent financial ruin for Texas. Logic implies it would only add to the woes. Have you experienced a Cat 4 hurricane? or do you just not live in the area that would be in the direct hit cone?
Just curious, not argumentative.
The roof of our tire store was blown off during Charley.
lol Cool! Isabel was the hurricane that really transfixed me. Did some terrible damage and made an inlet at the Outer Banks. Plus the pics from outer space were awesome.
Plus, a lot of these areas got a strong north wind with Katrina, south with Lee. That one may have needed a wind from the right direction to down it.
There were not winds even close to category 4/5 during Katrina at landfall, keep on dreamin, Charley tore apart concrete buildings.
They don't really think it has or will go SE, right?
Those maps are misleading, at times.
The MAX sustained Winds during Katrina were recorded at 175 mph. Storm surge height: 27.8 feet, Pass Christian, MS
There is no reason to be rude about it.
Did you not see the MS gulf coast after Katrina, I did, I lived in it.. there was NOTHING left.
I'm not an expert, but I prefer living in reality, and trust NOAA reports over some blogger who claims they had category 4/5 winds on the Mississippi Coast during Katrina.
Most structures that fail in high winds are not blown over. Severe structural damage often occurs after a major opening (large windows, garage doors, etc.) fails. The wind goes inside and the house isn’t design to resist upward forces from the inside. At best, there’s a lot of damage in the house, at worse, the roof blows off, and the structure collapses.
The wind can blow in garage doors and windows, but a lot of times, projectiles open up the first big hole in the building envelope. The hit or miss nature can contribute to varying damage from house to house in the same neighborhood.
If the sustained winds get high enough, almost all the structures will end up with a lot of damage.
Not downed, but not functioning.
...Cumulative rainfall totals as of 7am CDT Saturday morning...
...Updated co-op and unofficial sites...
Rainfall totals are given in inches. Totals begin at 7am Thursday
morning and end at 7am Sunday morning unless otherwise noted.
Incomplete data is notated with an (i) behind the observation.
Official NWS observations
automated observations/co-op sites
Holdon 13.93
N.O. Carollton 12.97
Maurepas 11.97
Convent 2s 11.55
Galliano 11.40
Livingston 11.24
N.O. Audubon 10.79
Slidell city 10.62
Pascagoula 10.60
Covington 10.46
Terrytown 3s 9.86
Ponchatoula 4se 9.42
Baptist 9.31
N.O. Armstrong 8.97
N.O. Lakefront 8.90
bayou Manchac pt 8.80 (i)
Robert 8.50
Denham Springs 8.40
Ocean Springs 8.24
abita river 8.05
Donaldsonville 4sw 7.82
b.R. Sherwood 7.79
Mandeville 7.72
Gonzales 7.63
Gulfport 7.46
Boothville 7.40
Bayou Sorrel lock 7.26
Biloxi 7.16
Baton Rouge 7.03
Bush 6.70
Slidell Airport 6.57
b.R. Concord 6.39
Bogalusa 6.10
Killian 5.50 (i)
sun 5.32
Plaquemine 2n 5.03
Grand Isle 4.30 (i)
Unofficial observations - cocorahs public reports
Waveland 1.1nw 14.11 through 8am
Marrero 1.9e 11.61 through 6am
Meraux 0.8wnw 11.18 through 8am
Pass Christian 8.9nnw 10.02 through 8am
Long Beach 0.7s 9.94 through 8am
Reserve 0.5 SSE 9.84
gray 0.5 ENE 9.12
Gautier 4.9n 8.89
Lacombe 1.4n 8.88 through 8am
Kiln 6.6n 8.80 through 8am
Monticello 3.0ene 8.78
Houma 3.7nnw 8.76
Pass Christian 5n 8.38
Gulfport 4.3nnw 8.21
Denham Springs 1.9nne 8.09
Abita Springs 0.8wsw 8.05 through 6am
Village St. George 7.80
diamondhed 0.9nnw 7.55
Moss Point 10.2ne 7.52 through 8am
Baton Rouge 2.7sw 7.47
Ocean Springs 3.2se 7.40
Labadieville 0.9nnw 7.37
Carriere 5.6nw 7.32 through 8am
Slidell 2.2ne 7.27
lsu 7.13
Picayune 5.6ene 6.81 through 630am
Zachary 3.5wnw 6.66
shanandoah 2.1w 6.57 through 8am
Gramercy 0.4nw 6.19
Tickfaw 2.0ssw 6.19 through 8am
Inniswold 2.8s 5.96
Hammond 4.5ssw 5.70
Wakefield 5.56
Ponchatoula 5.33 through 8am
Jayess 5.9sw 5.08
Gloster 1.9 SSW 3.30
Liberty 1wnw 3.29
It was horribly destructive, but it wasn't category 4/5 winds that did it. Lets be honest and think rationally, not dream things up.
Plus, there are a lot of "Katrina weakened" trees still around....just waiting for the right kind of wind....we've had many taken down, but have more to go here on our place in SC Ms....it gets expensive :|
A peak, unmeasured gust on land in a very spectacular moment, maybe. Would absolutely have to be waterfront with an on-shore flow.
Those are the official maps. They are as accurate as possible, but it does not mean that they are 100% failproof. That's why I'm concerned, because if it starts moving to the SE and makes it back to the Gulf which is practically boiling right now if the conditions are favorable it would reintensify, but ppl here are dismissing it, so I guess I'll try to figurte it out myself.
You realize there are millions of people who live south of you who would be experiencing much greater wind, flooding and damage? I cannot imagine being able to dismiss that concern.
As it is, Lee has done us a great deal of good with the displacing of large quantities of hot dry air, and the front dropping down across the panhandle. Our gulf has been replenished with healthy bacteria (killed off during the oil treatment), and the weather is changing. The fastest solution is not necessarily the best solution, IMO. But, that's all it is.
Whatever.. Those of us that lived there and went through that hell know first hand what is was like, unlike those who just watched in on TWC.
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