Lee drenching the Gulf Coast; Katia a Cat 2
Tropical Storm Lee made landfall on the southern coast of Louisiana near 4 am CDT this morning, and continues to inch slowly northward and dump very heavy rains. The storm is not a threat to intensify, since its center lies over land, but enough of the storm's circulation is over water that Lee will be slow to weaken. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 8.85" inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 9 am CDT this morning. Top winds this morning hit 46 mph, gusting to 57 mph, at 6:28 am CDT, when a heavy squall blew in. Latest satellite loops show Lee has lost quite a bit of its heavy thunderstorms since yesterday, but the storm remains a formidable rain-maker. Lee brought a storm surge of 4 feet to New Canal Station in Lake Pontchartrain and at Shell Beach east of New Orleans yesterday afternoon. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center reported eight probable tornadoes from Lee yesterday. These tornadoes damaged approximately ten buildings, but caused no deaths or injuries.
Figure 1. Observed rainfall for the seven-day period ending at 8 am EDT Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Tropical Storm Lee had dumped 5 -10 inches of rain over a large swath of the coast, with a few areas in excess of ten inches (pink colors). Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period 8am EDT Sunday - 8 am EDT Friday, Sep 9, 2011. Lee is expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to the mid-Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Forecast for Lee
Lee's large size and slow movement will make heavy rains the main concern today. Later in the week, the remnants of Lee's may be a problem for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain. Tornadoes from Lee are a potential hazard today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 9 am CDT.
Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia finally overcame the wind shear and dry air interfering with it, and intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this morning. Latest satellite loops show a well-defined eye for the first time, but the hurricane still has a lopsided appearance, due to he impacts of dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots on its southwest side.
Katia will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days, but may be a threat to the U.S. late this week. The computer models disagree considerably on the position and strength of a trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. late this week, and thus how Katia will be steered. The evolution of this trough will be strongly affected by Tropical Storm Lee, and the models are not very skillful at predicting transitions from tropical storm to extratropical storm, which will happen to Lee by Wednesday this week. We have two of our reliable models--the ECMWF and UKMET--predicting that the trough will form farther west, steering Katia very close to North Carolina late this week. The rest of the models predict a more easterly position of the trough, which would force Katia to turn northwards towards Canada well before reaching North Carolina. Either scenario is possible, and it will probably be at least another day before the models converge on a solution for the long-term fate of Katia. It's likely that locations on the U.S. coast south of North Carolina will not receive a direct hit from Katia, but the entire coast from North Carolina northwards to New England and Canada's Maritime Provinces is definitely at risk. Long period swells from Katia will begin affecting the Bahamas tonight, then reach the Southeast U.S. by Monday morning. By Tuesday morning, the entire U.S. East Coast will see high surf from Katia, and these waves will increase in size and power as the storm grows closer. Given the slow movement of Katia as it approaches the coast, plus its expected Category 1 to 3 strength as it approaches, the storm will probably cause extensive beach erosion and dangerous rip tides for many days.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.
Elsewhere in the tropics
This week and next week typically mark the two most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season, and there are two potential threat areas we need to watch. The GFS model predicts that a tropical depression could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Friday or Saturday this week. Several other models give support to this idea, and predict such a storm would track northwards or north-northeastwards towards the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The other region to watch is between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model is predicting that a tropical wave currently near the coast of Africa could develop into a tropical depression late this week, and arrive in the northern Lesser Antilles by Saturday or Sunday.
Jeff Masters
This is what happens when you do not tie up your boat....
This was taken in Pass Christian MS
Reader Comments
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I'll go with 2 1/2.
Don being the 1/2 :)
Naddi is still hiding & Shadow refuses to go out!
MOB: 2 Sw Pensacola [Escambia Co, FL] fire dept/rescue reports TORNADO at 03:11 AM CDT -- fire rescue reports residential structure damaged with trees down at 5525 garcon blvd, pensacola, f
MOB: Perdido Bay [Escambia Co, FL] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 03:25 AM CDT -- a house damaged near perido bay. possible tornado
MOB: 2 Sw Lillian [Baldwin Co, AL] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 03:25 AM CDT -- a camper flipped over at the koa campground. a house damaged on county road 99. possible tornado
will no recon for today but
000
NOUS42 KNHC 041500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 04 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-096
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION
FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF 06/1100Z.
MOVE WEST!
Sincerely
~WeatherNerd
T wave at 40W!
Model error for Lee in nm.
Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr
GFNI 0 70.5 75.4 -
GFDI 0 62.5 63.3 63.6
GFDL 18.0 42.9 62.7 77.9
GFDN 7.9 52.1 55.8 -
CMC 24.3 56.8 73.9 108.4
EGRR 24.7 52.6 90.8 -
AVNO 28.2 43.3 51.4 48.6
BAMD - 65.8 73.5 84.8
BAMM - 59.5 97.4 155.6
BAMS - 81.0 154.5 248.4
AEMN 26.9 61.2 97.8 118.2
HWRF 21.4 70.3 85.1 138.3
LBAR 0 66.2 97.3 85.5
LGEM 0 58.7 62.8 126.0
NAM 28.0 71.0 41.8 48.5
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.ht ml
Well..I can't help all that now.
Upper level pattern is very complex right now. Tough on the models.
From Doc's post:
"The evolution of this trough will be strongly affected by Tropical Storm Lee, and the models are not very skillful at predicting transitions from tropical storm to extratropical storm, which will happen to Lee by Wednesday this week."
Normally 6-12 hours.
Thanks. Then we in Louisiana are probably safe. *S*
Does this mean the Texas ridge will be leaving, or is it more eastern Louisiana?
Here's the model verification for Katia. Ukmet is EGR2 & is showing more skill then about all the rest around the 2-3 day time frame.
We can still hope.
lol may be you left JFV in charge
I wanna say 6hrs.
Thanks! I don't like the looks of it then with the UKMET model. I'm in FL, not worried, but just watchful. Doubt it comes anywhere near here from what everyone is saying here.
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